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miplet
miplet
Joined: Dec 1, 2009
  • Threads: 5
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January 7th, 2017 at 5:50:09 PM permalink
All side action with me has been settled.
beachbumbabs
Administrator
beachbumbabs
Joined: May 21, 2013
  • Threads: 74
  • Posts: 8582
January 7th, 2017 at 8:19:34 PM permalink
Quote: miplet

All side action with me has been settled.



And very quickly, too. Thanks, miplet!
"If the house lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game."
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
Joined: May 8, 2015
  • Threads: 75
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March 14th, 2017 at 4:45:13 AM permalink
I have a suggestion for next year's contest. It may seem a little ridiculous for me to make a suggestion since I didn't participate but I'll go ahead and make one anyway. The Wizard has acknowledged that he obtained an advantage (compared to ordinary bettors, not contest bettors) by being able to bet on stale lines that were no longer available at the time of the bet. It is very likely that many other players used this same advantage. Because of this, the results did not truly reflect handicapping ability. My suggestion is to eliminate this advantage so that the results WOULD truly reflect ability. To do this a bettor could be allowed to make a bet on any game at any time up until game time on a line posted at one particular book that has its line history tracked by covers.com such as betonline.ag. Then, the Administrator would look at the line history and verify that be spread quoted by the bettor matches up with the time indicated by the line history. If it does not match up then the bet is either disallowed or posted at the correct line shown by the line history. As an additional safeguard the Administrator would take a screenshot of the book's lines at various times to insure that the bettor's bet is quoted at the correct line. The upside is that the contest would then seem to me to be truly reflective of handicapping abilities. The downside is that the Administrator would have to do more work. But maybe not all that much more work. Here is a cut and paste of some of covers.com tracking of line history on the Giants vs. the Eagles on 12/22/2016:

Note: I just noticed that betonline.ag does not always post their sides and totals at -110. So, a different book would have to be found that does to calculate the winner in % terms as it has been done in the past.


12/18/16 7:18:25 PM 3/-110 (Open) OFF
12/18/16 8:18:25 PM 3/-110 42-110 (Open)
12/18/16 8:28:25 PM 3/-115 42-110
12/18/16 9:08:25 PM 3/-120 42-110
12/19/16 1:38:26 AM 3/-118 42-110
12/19/16 1:48:26 AM 3/-117 42-110
12/19/16 2:18:26 AM 3/-112 42-110
12/19/16 12:58:27 PM 3/-115 42-110
12/19/16 1:38:28 PM 2.5/-110 41.5-110
12/19/16 5:48:27 PM 2.5/-105 41.5-110
12/20/16 2:18:28 PM 2.5/100 41.5-110
12/21/16 1:18:26 AM 2.5/100 41.5-112
12/21/16 1:38:27 AM 2.5/101 41.5-112
12/21/16 3:08:26 AM 2.5/101 41-118
12/21/16 10:38:28 AM 2.5/101 41-110
12/21/16 3:28:28 PM 2.5/101 41.5-110
Last edited by: lilredrooster on Mar 14, 2017
"gambling improves the flavor of life" ................... Nick the Greek
wudged
wudged
Joined: Aug 7, 2013
  • Threads: 2
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March 14th, 2017 at 7:24:00 AM permalink
Nice idea, but that's 16 different time slots, times 25 players, times 5 picks per player - so it's not so easy to manually check.

I'm sure a script could be written to do it, though.

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