Ramond
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November 8th, 2010 at 9:04:33 AM permalink
Dear players and wizard,
I found something really interesting. I'm from Holland and live nearby Belgium were they use really interesting rules (that absolutely favours the player) in Blackjack (a lot better then Holland where the house edge is +/- 0,6%).

Here they are:
* They use a 6-deck card game with cutting card.
* Blackjack pays 3:2
* Dealer gets only 1 card like everywhere else in Europe (no 'hole card').
* Player can double any 2 cards
* Player can double after splitting
* Player can split to 3 hands
* Player can re-split aces to 3 hands
* Player can hit splitted aces.. but, the aces will always count as 11 (so the aces will become a hard hand).
* Player loses his total bet against dealers blackjack (so for example: a player doubles €10,- to €20,- he loses €20).
and now it comes..!
* Player can surrender a hard 12,13,14,15,16 or 17, except when the dealer has an ace.
* If the player wins with 5 cards against the dealer (so this is no Charlie, you have to score higher than the dealer!) the pay-out is 3:2
* If the player wins with 6 cards against the dealer, the pay-out is 2:1
* If the player wins with 7 cards against the dealer, the pay-out is 5:1.

Wizard, I have two questions. First of all (affcourse) is.. can you calculate the house edge please, using the rules above (using the optimal/basic strategy).

My 2nd question, because the pay-outs if you win with 5 or more cards are higher, is where you have to use an alternative (basic)strategy. For example, if you have 13 with 4 cards against a dealers 2, you normally stand, but with the 3:2 pay-out I guess you will have to hit.. and for example also a hard 17 against a dealers 10 when you already have 6 cards.
And what to do with splitting 2-2 and 3-3 and doubling soft hands (which might become 5, 6 or 7 cards more easy).

Can you please calculate a new basic strategy?

I think this is very interesting for a lot of us who live and want to play in Europe because other countries like Holland, Germany or France use rules that always creates a house edge that is 0,5% or higher.
And besides that, in Holland they use a shuffle machine (they use 6 decks and shuffle after each round) so counting is worthless.

Like to here from you soon Wizard.
Thank you.

Greetz from Holland.
Wizard
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November 8th, 2010 at 9:53:57 AM permalink
This sounds very similar to Spanish 21. Are you sure they didn't remove some of the 10-point cards from the deck?
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
Ramond
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November 8th, 2010 at 10:02:22 AM permalink
No Wizard, the use a standard/normal card game. I asked a couple of croupiers.
There are also croupiers in Holland Casino that play in Belgium that confirm they use a normal card game.

Thats why I came to play in Belgium, because some croupiers in Holland told me it's interesting to play in the Belgium Casino's.

I forgot one thing (but thats pretty normal). The dealers stands on a soft 17.

For sure, if you don't believe they use a normal card game, you can e-mail the casino (Casino Middelkerke in Belgium) or play there yourself.
You can find it also in this Dutch page: http://nl.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blackjack#Bonusregels where they tell you about the Belgium bonusrules ('bonusregels').

I'm looking forword to your reply and answers.
Ramond
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November 18th, 2010 at 3:34:56 AM permalink
Dear Wizard, you still haven't posted an answer.
I'm still very interesting (and I think a lot of players nearby Belgium are) in the house edge and alternative basic strategy with the rules they have in this Belgium Casino.

Maybe it is hard to believe that they use this rules (because they could even be a bit favourable for the player) but it is true, and they really do use a normal card game with 10-J-Q-K that counts as tens.

I asked some croupiers why they have these rules. The answer is simple: Off course double any 2 cards, and surrender (and all the other things the favours the player) is good for the player, but the most players use it in the wrong way. Most players don't know when tot surrender or when to double down, which in the end.. favours the casino with this rules.

I'm really looking forward for your answer Wizard.
FleaStiff
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November 18th, 2010 at 4:39:48 AM permalink
Quote: Ramond

but the most players use it in the wrong way.

Player ignorance has generally favored the casino. So too does player inebriation. Do casinos there in either Holland or Belgium serve alcohol at the tables? Is it free?
Ramond
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November 18th, 2010 at 7:48:01 AM permalink
In Holland sometimes you get free drinks indeed, except when the table is completely full.
And a lot of croupiers of 'Holland Casino' play in Belgium because of the good rules... but they don't get free drinks (not so strange I guess).

What about other people on this forum? Did anybody ever played in Belgium?
Wizard
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November 18th, 2010 at 10:52:36 AM permalink
I was hoping somebody else would answer this, but it is a worthy question, so here you go. The rules I have a hard time with are these:

5-card wins pay 3-2
6-card wins pay 2-1
7-card wins pay 5-1
Drawing to split aces allowed, but aces must count as 11.

Before factoring in those rules, and the early surrender, my house edge calculator says the house edge is 0.49%. The early surrender against a 10 is worth 0.24%, so that gets us down to 0.25%. Individually here is what I get for the winning Charlie rules:

5-card wins pay 3-2: 0.35%
6-card wins pay 2-1: 0.09%
7-card wins pay 5-1: 0.05%

However, taken in combination I get an effect of 0.43%. The reason it is less than the sum of the parts is an interaction effect. So that gets us to a player edge of 0.18%.

Normally the benefit of drawing to split aces is 0.19%. I'm going to chop that in half, because in this case aces are forced to count as 11 after splitting aces, so 0.09% (my gut says to round down). So add another 0.09% for that, and we have a player edge of 0.27%.

I still can't shake the feeling that there is some rule you're not telling me that cuts the dealer's way. This game would not last more than a few days in Vegas.

Sorry, no strategy deviation charts. I spent at least an hour on this as it is.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
FleaStiff
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November 18th, 2010 at 12:40:11 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

I still can't shake the feeling that there is some rule you're not telling me that cuts the dealer's way. This game would not last more than a few days in Vegas.

I too think there is something that has been missed, else the entire BlackJack world would be abuzz with comments about this situation.

>Sorry, no strategy deviation charts. I spent at least an hour on this as it is.
Even those of us who will never get anywhere near Belgium appreciate your having devote your time and energy to this.
mkl654321
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November 18th, 2010 at 12:55:39 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

I still can't shake the feeling that there is some rule you're not telling me that cuts the dealer's way. This game would not last more than a few days in Vegas.

Sorry, no strategy deviation charts. I spent at least an hour on this as it is.



I doubt that this makes enough of a difference to bring the game back down to -EV territory, but the OP did say that this was no-hole-card with the player losing his entire bet on doubles (or, presumably, splits) if the dealer drew a blackjack after the players completed their hands.

I am also surprised that the 5-card win rule adds that much. After all, it's only an extra 0.5 bets, so the simultaneous occurence of the player getting five cards without busting AND winning the hand would have to occur something like once every 300 hands to produce that 0.35%--does it really happen that often (as you say, without strategy variations)?
The fact that a believer is happier than a skeptic is no more to the point than the fact that a drunken man is happier than a sober one. The happiness of credulity is a cheap and dangerous quality.---George Bernard Shaw
Wizard
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November 18th, 2010 at 1:32:14 PM permalink
Quote: mkl654321

I am also surprised that the 5-card win rule adds that much. After all, it's only an extra 0.5 bets, so the simultaneous occurence of the player getting five cards without busting AND winning the hand would have to occur something like once every 300 hands to produce that 0.35%--does it really happen that often (as you say, without strategy variations)?



0.35% to the player means an extra unit every 1/.0035=286 hands. However, you get an extra half unit at a time, so an extra half unit every 143 hands. Assuming 70 hands per hour, that would be about once every 2 hours you beat the dealer with a 5-card hand. That sounds reasonable to me. My figures, by the way, factored in strategy deviations. I'm just running to busy to put them in writing. If it weren't the gaming show week or I was the Wizard of Belgium I'd do it.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
Ramond
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November 19th, 2010 at 8:28:48 AM permalink
Thank you for your answer!
And it's true... it's hard to believe that the rules are like this but be honest.. don't you think the casino stil makes a lot of money?!
When I play myself in a casino only 1% of all the people I say plays perfect basic strategy. So let's say only 1% of all the players has an edge of 0,27% over the casino with this rules, the casino stil makes money because a lot of players don't know when to hit, stand, double, split or surrender.

The croupier I was talking to in Holland Casino said that a lot of Belgium players surrender every stiff hand against high cards, en sometimes even against low cards.. so the Belgium casino won't complain I guess.

Maybe someone else has the time someday to calculate a different basic strategy in case the player is 1 or 2 cards behind from a Charlie, but I understand it's hard to calculate because even with a 5 card, 18,19 or 20 points the dealer can still win.
ChesterDog
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November 19th, 2010 at 5:43:48 PM permalink
Quote: Ramond

...Maybe someone else has the time someday to calculate a different basic strategy in case the player is 1 or 2 cards behind from a Charlie, but I understand it's hard to calculate because even with a 5 card, 18,19 or 20 points the dealer can still win.



Here are my basic strategy changes for your game:
6 or more cards: hit 17 vs 8,9,10,A; hit 16 vs all but 5; hit 12-15 vs all; hit soft 19 vs all but 8
5-card hands: hit 14 vs 2; hit 13 vs 2,3,4,6; hit 12 vs all; hit soft 19 vs 10; hit soft 18 vs all but 7
4-card hands: hit 13 vs 2; hit 12 vs all; hit soft 18 vs 8

I find no splitting strategy changes. Also, my result is a small edge for the house (about 0.1%).
Ramond
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November 20th, 2010 at 5:54:18 AM permalink
Thnx Chester. There is one thing I don't understand.

'5-cards: hit 13 vs 2,3,4,6'. Why not against a dealers 5? Both 5 and 6 for dealer means a probability of 45% for the dealer to bust isn't it?

The same with 6 cards, hit 16 vs all but 5. I don't understand why a 5 is more worse for a dealer then a 6.
Kellynbnf
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November 20th, 2010 at 7:39:36 AM permalink
Quote: Ramond

Thnx Chester. There is one thing I don't understand.

'5-cards: hit 13 vs 2,3,4,6'. Why not against a dealers 5? Both 5 and 6 for dealer means a probability of 45% for the dealer to bust isn't it?

The same with 6 cards, hit 16 vs all but 5. I don't understand why a 5 is more worse for a dealer then a 6.



My guess is that if it's a S17 game the player is slightly more inclined to hit with a 6 than a 5, since with the former there is a possibility of the dealer having a pat 17 with two cards (if the other one is an ace). With a 5 (or anything lower) up the dealer will always take at least a third card.
weaselman
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November 20th, 2010 at 8:02:54 AM permalink
Quote: mkl654321

I doubt that this makes enough of a difference to bring the game back down to -EV territory, but the OP did say that this was no-hole-card with the player losing his entire bet on doubles (or, presumably, splits) if the dealer drew a blackjack after the players completed their hands.


It costs about .15%, I believe, taking the game to about +0.04% to the player under Wiz's estimates. Perhaps, if computed with more accuracy (e.g., calculating the exact cost of counting split aces as 11), we could even see a small house edge.


I tend to agree with the people who suggested the game isn't so bad for the casino. People make enough mistakes with BS as it is, there is a bunch deviations here, that will make it even more likely. Some will chose to ignore the deviations and just play the standard BS (thus increasing house edge), some will try to use the modified strategy, and make mistakes, most will just listen to their gut ... Overall, I think, the house will be OK :) I applaud them for being gutsy enough to offer a game like this though.
"When two people always agree one of them is unnecessary"
ChesterDog
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November 20th, 2010 at 8:53:35 AM permalink
Quote: Kellynbnf

My guess is that if it's a S17 game the player is slightly more inclined to hit with a 6 than a 5, since with the former there is a possibility of the dealer having a pat 17 with two cards (if the other one is an ace). With a 5 (or anything lower) up the dealer will always take at least a third card.



This is my guess, too. The decision for standing or hitting a 5-card 13 vs 6 is very close, so the possibility of a dealer's pat hand would make a difference; I get -0.151 for hitting and -0.154 for standing using the infinite deck model. (For a 5-card 13 vs 5, I get -0.175 for hitting and -0.167 for standing.)
Kellynbnf
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November 20th, 2010 at 10:41:48 AM permalink
Another bit of information on why the dealer bust rate does not fully indicate the player's odds: One time on another forum I asked if you could choose for the dealer to always have a 2 up or a 7 up which would be better. Since the dealer is more likely to bust with a 2 upcard than a 7, some said the former. Actually, the player has better odds with a 7 up, the reason being is that the dealer has a good chance at finishing with 17 - which makes it easier for the player to beat the dealer with an 18, 19, 20, or 21. With a 2 up in addition to being more likely to bust the dealer also has a better chance at making a better hand, which means that if the player ends up with an 18+ hand it would be less likely to hold up in those situations.
Wizard
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November 20th, 2010 at 11:25:08 AM permalink
Quote: weaselman

It costs about .15%, I believe, taking the game to about +0.04% to the player under Wiz's estimates .



I already factored in that it is a no hole card game. My blackjack house edge calculator allow so for that rule. It shows that rule increases the house edge by 0.11% in a six-deck game. My effects of the bonuses for winning 5-7 card hands were based on infinite decks, which would overstate the benefit moderately.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
elscrabinda
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November 26th, 2010 at 10:36:33 AM permalink
What would people suggest as a card counting strategy for this game? The benefit of a deck high in 10s is obviously offset by charlie wins becoming less likely, but Aces for instance become very valuable as they help for blackjacks and charlies.
elscrabinda
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February 3rd, 2011 at 8:42:26 AM permalink
On another forum I read that all BJ in Belgium uses continuous shuffle machines. Is this true Ramond (or anyone else)?
elscrabinda
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February 9th, 2011 at 2:29:45 AM permalink
Thanks for your efforts Chester but to me this seems intuitively wrong. My hunch says you should be much more aggressive in hitting when you have 5 and 6 cards.

For instance a 6 card soft 19 vs 8: When the difference in payout is 2:1 for 6 cards vs 5:1 for 7 cards and you can't go bust, it seems strange not to want another card. My guess would be hitting a 6 card soft anything against anything is better, but having done no calculations I'm not in a position to argue. Could you let me know your methodology so I can check the figures and see if I come up different?
ChesterDog
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February 10th, 2011 at 1:15:56 PM permalink
Quote: elscrabinda

Thanks for your efforts Chester but to me this seems intuitively wrong. My hunch says you should be much more aggressive in hitting when you have 5 and 6 cards.

For instance a 6 card soft 19 vs 8: When the difference in payout is 2:1 for 6 cards vs 5:1 for 7 cards and you can't go bust, it seems strange not to want another card. My guess would be hitting a 6 card soft anything against anything is better, but having done no calculations I'm not in a position to argue. Could you let me know your methodology so I can check the figures and see if I come up different?



You're right! Thank you for your corrections. [My errors were based on my wrong assumption that the player must have 21 and beat the dealer (instead of beat the dealer with any total) to get the bonuses.]

I used the infinite-deck model for this game, so my result for the player's advantage will be lower than the Wizard's more realistic number of 0.27%; I get a player's edge of 0.128%.

Here is my strategy for this game:

2 cards
soft standing totals: 18 vs 2-8; 19 vs 9-A
hard standing totals: 13 vs 2-3; 12 vs 4-6; 17 vs 7-A

3 cards
soft standing totals: 18 vs 2-7; 19 vs 8-A
hard standing totals: 13 vs 2-4; 12 vs 5-6; 17 vs 7-A

4 cards
soft standing totals: 19 vs 8; 20 vs 2-7 and 9-A
hard standing totals: 16 vs 2; 15 vs 3-6; 17 vs 7-10; 18 vs A

5 cards
soft standing totals: 21 vs 2-7; 20 vs 8-A
hard standing totals: 16 vs 2; 15 vs 3-6; 17 vs 7-10; 18 vs A

6 cards
soft standing totals: none; hit soft 21 if allowed
hard standing totals: 17 vs 5-6; 18 vs 2-4 and 7-A

7 or more cards
soft standing totals: 18 vs 2-7; 19 vs 8-A
hard standing totals: 13 vs 2; 12 vs 3-6; 17 vs 7-8; 16 vs 9; 15 vs 10; 18 vs A; [edited: changed from 13 vs 2-6]

Pairs
split A's vs 2-10
split 9's vs 2-6 and 8-9
split 8's vs 2-9
split 7's vs 2-7
split 6's vs 2-6
split 4's vs 5-6
split 3's vs 3-7
split 2's vs 3-7

Soft doubles
double 18 vs 3-6
double 17 vs 3-6
double 16 vs 4-6
double 15 vs 5-6
double 14 vs 6

Hard doubles
double 11 vs 2-9
double 10 vs 2-9
double 9 vs 3-6

Surrenders
surrender 16 vs 9-10
surrender 15 vs 10
surrender 14 vs 10
elscrabinda
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February 11th, 2011 at 1:41:30 AM permalink
Great, thanks!
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