Joined: Jul 27, 2017
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August 4th, 2017 at 1:41:52 PM permalink
The theory with risk averse plays is that you can bet more each round, because your over all game has less variance, and therefore have an immediately higher win rate, despite making some choices which have slightly lower expected value. And there really isn't much difference in EV anyway in choosing to hit 9 v 7 @ TC 3.5 as opposed to choosing to double. A9 and TT v 6 are good examples because not only are you doubling / splitting, but you are also giving up a nearly unbeatable hand in the process, so you are incurring a ton of variance. Which isn't to say these plays don't have merit but just that it is wiser to abstain from making them until a slightly higher index, especially if you taking an aggressive stance and wagering full kelly. There is less of a case for using risk averse indexes if you are taking a very conservative position and wagering 1/4 kelly or an even smaller fraction thereof.
Joined: Dec 31, 2014
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August 6th, 2017 at 5:35:29 PM permalink
Are you talking about a situation where there is no risk of drawing heat? All of the subtle sub-rules and angels-on-the-head-of-a-pin theological discussions.

I WON'T double A-9 or split 10s under any circumstance, The only player at the table who would grant me even the slightest leniency is a fellow counter. The hue and cry from the non-counters as I make the play would rouse the dead. The positive count that justifies the play is the same count that has my maximum bet out there. What more would they need to call upstairs or come over to watch the rest of the shoe, which I assume is going to be strongly in my favor for a while longer?

I guess I don't mind getting down in the weeds about this from a theoretical or abstract point of view, but my point is the same: there is too much going on around me in the real world where I play to have the focus to see these once-in-a-session situations when they happen, and not enough bandwidth to recognize them when they do.

I still have a day job. I've won more than I've lost. I eat and drink for free. I've never thought I have any kind of luck, but that I do have a hard-earned skill that allows me to beat them at this game over the long term. And, so far, THEY HAVE NO IDEA.

I'll stick with basic strategy, I18, and a shallow ramp. And for anyone who frequents this forum and is NOT a professional, I think that's all you need.

I enjoy reading all of this. I pay all due respect to those of you who can understand, and most importantly, APPLY this to your work. But it flies right over my head. I'd love to see it all being applied as I stand in the background. Good for you if you can.

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