theoriemeister
theoriemeister
Joined: Jul 4, 2015
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July 15th, 2017 at 11:55:49 AM permalink
I appreciate everyone's comments. Yes, first and foremost I am a recreational player, and my session bankroll is $100, which, of course, really limits my spread ($5 - $15). According to WoO, the HE = .57.

My local casino is really just a card room; there are no slots, craps, or roulette. One room is devoted entirely to poker, and the other room is the table games: (ONE! BJ table, three(!) Spanish 21 tables (it's really popular here in the Pacific NW), one Pai Gow table, two tables of other games. That's it. Like I said, really small! But on the plus side, it's a very friendly place; the waitresses know who I am and what I drink, that sort of thing. I enjoy the atmosphere of the place.

Since there's only a single BJ table, waiting until the count is +2 is impractical, because I might have to wait a long time to jump in, if at all. Wouldn't that make me conspicuous? Plus, on a busy night there are sometimes no seats at the table. I do Wong out when the count gets -2, so I suppose that helps a little. (At this place I can sit at the table and "check my messages" while play continues. While in Vegas last week, I was told not to use my phone at the table.) The dealers rotate every 15 minutes, but all of them give at least a 75% PEN (6 decks).

I have read Romes's excellent articles, but should probably re-read them.

And to OnceDear: my last hand was 5-5 v. dealer 6. I double and am dealt a 5. Dealer turns over a 4 and then draws a 9. It was that kind of night! :)
OnceDear
OnceDear
Joined: Jun 1, 2014
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  • Posts: 1773
July 15th, 2017 at 12:25:59 PM permalink
Quote: theoriemeister

I appreciate everyone's comments. . . . .

And to OnceDear: my last hand was 5-5 v. dealer 6. I double and am dealt a 5. Dealer turns over a 4 and then draws a 9. It was that kind of night! :)

Yes it happens. I've had a few sessions where my last hand has been a sh1t or bust situation splitting to 4 hands and doubling some of those.

Enjoy.
ps. read my posts about missing the odd game to take a glug of my drink. Has led to some funny and exploitable dealer errors.
Embrace the Variance
mustangsally
mustangsally
Joined: Mar 29, 2011
  • Threads: 15
  • Posts: 1995
July 15th, 2017 at 1:18:10 PM permalink
Quote: theoriemeister

my last hand was 5-5 v. dealer 6. I double and am dealt a 5. Dealer turns over a 4 and then draws a 9. It was that kind of night! :)

Hmm,
brings up a simple question.

How often will you win with 5,5 against a Dealer 6?
double down of course (top of shoe)

80%
90%
more??
less??? (casino cheats you?)
I say 61% of the time you win
32% you lose. ugly it sure is. lol
others will have a different answer

I hear my Mom yelling when she plays BJ
(she lives over 1000 miles away)
Sally
I Heart Vi Hart
Ibeatyouraces
Ibeatyouraces
Joined: Jan 12, 2010
  • Threads: 63
  • Posts: 10540
Thanks for this post from:
monet0412ZenKinG
July 15th, 2017 at 1:31:18 PM permalink
Quote: mustangsally

Hmm,
brings up a simple question.

How often will you win with 5,5 against a Dealer 6?
double down of course (top of shoe)

80%
90%
more??
less??? (casino cheats you?)

I say 61% of the time you win
32% you lose. ugly it sure is. lol
others will have a different answer


100% loss rate if the decks are made in a Chinese prison.
"And that's the bottom lineeeee, cuz Stone Cold said so!"
DeMango
DeMango
Joined: Feb 2, 2010
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Thanks for this post from:
monet0412
July 15th, 2017 at 2:12:52 PM permalink
Wonder if Lucky Dragon uses cheap American made cards??
pwcrabb
pwcrabb
Joined: May 15, 2010
  • Threads: 1
  • Posts: 28
July 15th, 2017 at 4:36:57 PM permalink
Hello Theorie

Even when one plays them perfectly, randomized trials such as gambling games can exhibit extremely unbalanced ratios of outcomes. Imagine a normal "bell curve" probability distribution with the mean at approximately zero, which signifies only a small deviation in Expected Value. Although one may reasonably expect to experience a sample distribution near the mean, on very rare occasions one will experience an outlier. There is nothing to be done.

Assuming one follows optimal theoretical play, the only discretion which one really possesses is that of bet sizing. When the outcomes are outrageously imbalanced negatively, one should keep one's bets small. Doing so is counterintuitive and inhuman, of course, because impatience and anger tend to accumulate and interject themselves into the behavior of ordinary humans. Popular terminology includes "chasing" and "taking the steam."

Positive imbalances are of course also possible, and a different betting strategy should be selected at such times.
mamat
mamat
Joined: Jul 13, 2015
  • Threads: 3
  • Posts: 347
July 16th, 2017 at 5:26:23 AM permalink
Quote: theoriemeister

Last week I was in Vegas and took a very small bankroll ($300) with me. I sought out a $5 (3:2) BJ table and lost it in about 3 hours. (I am a very solid basic strategy player.) 2 days later I was at a different casino, bought in for $100, but lost that fairly quickly. I bought in for another hundred, got down to my last $25 but eventually clawed my way back to end up +$25 for the session--and that got me thinking.

At a $5-25 spread (haven't tried $5-15), it is unusual to be +/- $100 in an hour.

Sometimes I tried to make $100 before leaving a table, but it turned out to be much easier to make $75.

One tactic I tried was "leave if 1st three hands are losses" (-$15).

I also tried starting with $20 (best I did was +$1,100, leaving table at +$950).
...with $10 (best leaving table was about $250).
...and with $5 (best about $110).

Small bankroll ('short stack") BJ is very different from long-term edge BJ.
$5-25 needs about $2K-4K bankroll to play through losing streaks.

I've seen people place 1-3 $100 bets to start. If they win, they stop working for the day & leave.
If they lose, they settle down to grinding reds.

Have fun trying different ideas...

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