Triple Down Promotion
June 29th, 2010 at 8:36:41 AM
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So a local Connecticut casino is having a promotion in the middle of next month where a player can triple down for one day only on Blackjack and Spanish 21 hands. Especially for Spanish, and assuming that rescue is still a viable option, would this alter optimum betting strategy both for BS play or using the hi-lo? Provided I'm not working on that particular weekday I intend to head down and take advantage of this offer as long as there are available seats at the tables :)
June 29th, 2010 at 10:45:39 AM
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Hmm...interesting. Spanish is probably the better play if double-down rescue is still allowed. And you probably would take the opportunity to "triple-down" more. Looking forward to seeing someone's analysis.
"Dice, verily, are armed with goads and driving-hooks, deceiving and tormenting, causing grievous woe." -Rig Veda 10.34.4
June 30th, 2010 at 5:44:41 AM
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For regular blackjack, this page was made by the Wizard for "Triple Up 21" that allows the player to make a tripling bet in some cases.
https://wizardofodds.com/tripleup21
The aforementioned game has the dealer hitting on soft 17 (the strategy may be slightly different if it's a S17 game). Also assuming six decks, here's the additional hands that you'd want to triple under this promotion according to that page:
8 vs. 5
9 vs. 2
11 vs. A
Soft 13/14 vs. 4
Soft 18 vs. 2
Soft 19 vs. 3-6
Soft 20 vs. 4-6
The page also mentions that you should triple a blackjack vs. a dealer 6, but if naturals still pay 3:2 (or even 6:5) under this promotion that does not apply (with "Triple Up 21" blackjacks pay only even money).
https://wizardofodds.com/tripleup21
The aforementioned game has the dealer hitting on soft 17 (the strategy may be slightly different if it's a S17 game). Also assuming six decks, here's the additional hands that you'd want to triple under this promotion according to that page:
8 vs. 5
9 vs. 2
11 vs. A
Soft 13/14 vs. 4
Soft 18 vs. 2
Soft 19 vs. 3-6
Soft 20 vs. 4-6
The page also mentions that you should triple a blackjack vs. a dealer 6, but if naturals still pay 3:2 (or even 6:5) under this promotion that does not apply (with "Triple Up 21" blackjacks pay only even money).
July 1st, 2010 at 9:37:21 AM
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I wish I could play that. As stated above, my Triple Up 21 strategy will apply in a hit-soft 17 game, except don't triple on a blackjack if blackjack pays at least 6-5. The triple-down rule by itself is worth 1.64%!
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
July 1st, 2010 at 10:17:18 AM
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Just remember, even with a 1.5% advantage, it is a high variance play, so make sure your bankroll is adequate. No need to get greedy and start betting the max right away.
"Dice, verily, are armed with goads and driving-hooks, deceiving and tormenting, causing grievous woe." -Rig Veda 10.34.4
July 1st, 2010 at 10:47:54 AM
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I found out more details about this. This is all public information from the Mohegan Sun promotions web site. Scroll to the bottom. Here are the pertinent rules:
1. It runs from 6:00 AM July 15 to 6:00 AM July 16.
2. Valid on any blackjack or Spanish 21 table.
3. Maximum triple-down wager of $500.
I understand their most liberal blackjack rules to be as follows:
1. 6 decks.
2. Dealer stands on soft 17.
3. Double after split allowed.
4. Surrender allowed.
5. Re-splitting aces not allowed.
Before the triple-down rule, I show the house edge is 0.35%. After the triple down rule, the player edge is 1.53%!
I assume the maximum triple-down wager means the player can make an original bet of $250, and triple down for $500 more. So betting $250 a hand would have an expected profit of $3.83 per hand, or $229.50 per hour, assuming 60 hands per hour. Following is my basic strategy.
1. It runs from 6:00 AM July 15 to 6:00 AM July 16.
2. Valid on any blackjack or Spanish 21 table.
3. Maximum triple-down wager of $500.
I understand their most liberal blackjack rules to be as follows:
1. 6 decks.
2. Dealer stands on soft 17.
3. Double after split allowed.
4. Surrender allowed.
5. Re-splitting aces not allowed.
Before the triple-down rule, I show the house edge is 0.35%. After the triple down rule, the player edge is 1.53%!
I assume the maximum triple-down wager means the player can make an original bet of $250, and triple down for $500 more. So betting $250 a hand would have an expected profit of $3.83 per hand, or $229.50 per hour, assuming 60 hands per hour. Following is my basic strategy.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
July 1st, 2010 at 11:53:14 AM
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Gee, it's almost worth getting on a jet and flying out to Uncasville for the day. In fact, I bet some people will large bankrolls will do just that.
I also foresee A LOT of people over betting their bankrolls on this and busting out... You should not bet more than 1.53% of your bankroll at a variance of 1 using the Kelly Criterion. The variance is probably higher than 1 because of the triple-down factor.
Nice work!
I also foresee A LOT of people over betting their bankrolls on this and busting out... You should not bet more than 1.53% of your bankroll at a variance of 1 using the Kelly Criterion. The variance is probably higher than 1 because of the triple-down factor.
Nice work!
"Dice, verily, are armed with goads and driving-hooks, deceiving and tormenting, causing grievous woe." -Rig Veda 10.34.4
July 1st, 2010 at 12:06:42 PM
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Question on the Soft 12. Chart indicates to Triple up versus 5/6, but the only way to get a soft 12 is with AA, which the chart also says to split? Is this due to no resplit of Aces? So, if I get AA, do I split, and then Triple if I get another A? Can you please review? See all of you East Coasters there on that Thursday night.... Wow... Thanks for the notice and thanks for the chart.
July 1st, 2010 at 12:56:25 PM
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Quote: lucky13Question on the Soft 12. Chart indicates to Triple up versus 5/6, but the only way to get a soft 12 is with AA, which the chart also says to split? Is this due to no resplit of Aces? So, if I get AA, do I split, and then Triple if I get another A? Can you please review? See all of you East Coasters there on that Thursday night.... Wow... Thanks for the notice and thanks for the chart.
Good point. It is necessary to indicate how to play a soft 12 if there is a cap on re-splitting and the player can hit, stand, or double after splitting aces. In this case, drawing to split aces is not allowed, so that row doesn't apply. I'll get rid of it.
Quote: teddysGee, it's almost worth getting on a jet and flying out to Uncasville for the day. In fact, I bet some people will large bankrolls will do just that.
I agree. If I were not so far away then I'd get there at least three hours before the starting time, just to ensure I got a seat. I predict it will be a zoo there on the day of.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
July 1st, 2010 at 1:54:43 PM
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I'll give an over/under of 1PM the day of, before the promotion is shut down. I'd probably take the under.
To earn my VIG, I win if the shutdown time is between 12:45 and 1:15 PM --
Takers? Maybe W would like to book ...
--Dorothy
To earn my VIG, I win if the shutdown time is between 12:45 and 1:15 PM --
Takers? Maybe W would like to book ...
--Dorothy
"Who would have thought a good little girl like you could destroy my beautiful wickedness!"
July 1st, 2010 at 2:30:40 PM
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Nobody's gonna take that bet! This isn't as juicy as the Klondike/Wong/Lammers play of a few years ago, and it's not in Las Vegas so there are fewer local sharpies, but it will still be mobbed. The question is indeed WHEN not IF it will be burned down.
"Dice, verily, are armed with goads and driving-hooks, deceiving and tormenting, causing grievous woe." -Rig Veda 10.34.4
July 1st, 2010 at 3:13:16 PM
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Quote: teddysNobody's gonna take that bet! This isn't as juicy as the Klondike/Wong/Lammers play of a few years ago, and it's not in Las Vegas so there are fewer local sharpies, but it will still be mobbed. The question is indeed WHEN not IF it will be burned down.
So will my $100 Free bet pay $200 or $300? :)
I'll probably be there.
July 1st, 2010 at 5:11:14 PM
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I don't want to bet on it, but let the record show that I predict that additional limitations will be put in place, at the least, by 9:00 AM. Most likely lowering the max triple-bet and/or limiting the number of tables.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
July 2nd, 2010 at 7:44:09 AM
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I'll take the "over" on 9AM for restrictions. They won't know how badly their being beat yet. But, 9AM is a tough line.
--Dorothy
--Dorothy
"Who would have thought a good little girl like you could destroy my beautiful wickedness!"
July 2nd, 2010 at 9:14:15 AM
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Quote: DorothyGaleI'll take the "over" on 9AM for restrictions. They won't know how badly their being beat yet. But, 9AM is a tough line.
Okay, let's bet "honor" on it.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
July 2nd, 2010 at 9:20:53 AM
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Somebody pointed out to me that the player may actually be able to quadruple down:
Showing an eleven and looking to double down? On Thursday, July 15th, guests who play Spanish 21 or Blackjack will be eligible to triple down on their bet f.rom 6:00am on July 15th to 5:59am on July 16th. After a player receives their first two cards, they may make an additional wager up to triple the amount of the original wager. All tables will make tripling down available up to a $500.00 maximum bet. Standard double down rules apply. -- Source: newsroom.mohegansun.com.
If the additional wager is 3x the intial bet, then it should be called quadrupling down, because doubling down is adding 1x. If the player can in fact quadruple down then I show the player edge goes up to 3.56%!. Here is a quadruple down strategy.
Showing an eleven and looking to double down? On Thursday, July 15th, guests who play Spanish 21 or Blackjack will be eligible to triple down on their bet f.rom 6:00am on July 15th to 5:59am on July 16th. After a player receives their first two cards, they may make an additional wager up to triple the amount of the original wager. All tables will make tripling down available up to a $500.00 maximum bet. Standard double down rules apply. -- Source: newsroom.mohegansun.com.
If the additional wager is 3x the intial bet, then it should be called quadrupling down, because doubling down is adding 1x. If the player can in fact quadruple down then I show the player edge goes up to 3.56%!. Here is a quadruple down strategy.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
July 2nd, 2010 at 10:03:32 AM
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You're absolutely right that the latter phrase mathematically should be called a Quadruple Down. However, the former phrase 'Triple Down' would contradict that.Quote: Wizard...be eligible to triple down on their bet...
...they may make an additional wager up to triple the amount of the original wager...
I'm sure this will be a case where they will invoke the fine print: Not responsible for typographical errors.
FYI: I couldn't find the fine print on the website, but it's probably on the print art in the casino.
Even if it's not, they'll claim that despite the contrdiction, it should be obvious what thier intention was.
I invented a few casino games. Info:
http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/ —————————————————————————————————————
Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
July 2nd, 2010 at 11:32:18 AM
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Quote: WizardSomebody pointed out to me that the player may actually be able to quadruple down...
Yikes!!! I'll still take the over on 9:00 AM, but I am much less confident. I hope I don't lose my "honor."
--Dorothy
"Who would have thought a good little girl like you could destroy my beautiful wickedness!"
July 2nd, 2010 at 12:05:53 PM
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so $167 per initial wager would be optimal so you can bet $500 on the quadruple down wager.
$170 would be best just to speed the game up since $167 is 6 $25 chips, 3 $5 chips, and 2 $1 chips.
if you win a hand, dealer will pay you in 7 $25 chips and take back a $5 chip.
if you get blackjack, dealer will probably break your wager into two wagers. paying you 9 $25 chips on your $150 wager, then a $25 chip and $5 chip on your $20 wager. if shes smart and depending on how many $5 chips you have, she may even pay you 2 $25 chips and take your 4 $5 chips.
$170 would be best just to speed the game up since $167 is 6 $25 chips, 3 $5 chips, and 2 $1 chips.
if you win a hand, dealer will pay you in 7 $25 chips and take back a $5 chip.
if you get blackjack, dealer will probably break your wager into two wagers. paying you 9 $25 chips on your $150 wager, then a $25 chip and $5 chip on your $20 wager. if shes smart and depending on how many $5 chips you have, she may even pay you 2 $25 chips and take your 4 $5 chips.
July 4th, 2010 at 8:25:36 AM
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I was at Mohegan Sun Friday night and asked around for details about the promotion (is the $500 the total bet, initial wager or total of 'triple down'? do you really get to 'triple' your initial bet? etc.). The web site says to check with the Players Club for complete rules, but (of course) no one had even heard of it. I asked one of the pit bosses at the high limit bj and he hadn't heard anything. I found a host who was willing to check into it and get back to me, but this is typical of MS. There is also a $15K $100 buy-in bj tournament that same day, so a whole bank of tables will be tied up from around 6-11pm.
July 4th, 2010 at 6:23:10 PM
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Okay, I'll bet honor on the over. I assume "shut down" to mean it is completely gone.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
July 5th, 2010 at 12:18:08 PM
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To Wizard: I didn't understand your response to lucky 13. What exactly am I supposed to do with A,A? You said you would get rid of that row on your chart. What would you substitute? I've got a room booked at Mohegan that night ($49.00 for the room) Thanks.
July 5th, 2010 at 1:57:59 PM
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Quote: long3216To Wizard: I didn't understand your response to lucky 13. What exactly am I supposed to do with A,A? You said you would get rid of that row on your chart. What would you substitute? I've got a room booked at Mohegan that night ($49.00 for the room) Thanks.
I'm not the Wizard, but the correct strategy is to split them (which is always correct Basic Strategy in a game where the dealer checks for blackjack or you lose only your original bet to a dealer blackjack).
Here are some cases where you may need to use the separate A,A row in practice:
If you're playing at a casino/table that doesn't let you split aces at all.
If the casino/table you're playing at lets you take additional cards after splitting aces but doesn't allow resplitting them (or you reach the limit on the number of times you can do so). If hitting but not doubling is allowed, obviously you'd always hit; the soft 12 row that the Wizard originally showed applies when both hitting and doubling are allowed. (If doubling but not hitting is allowed, consult this page by the Wizard for the correct strategy for any post-splitting-aces hand: https://wizardofodds.com/blackjack/appendix20.html.)
July 5th, 2010 at 2:22:29 PM
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Quote: WizardOkay, I'll bet honor on the over. I assume "shut down" to mean it is completely gone.
Yes, "shut down" means completely gone. And the line is 1:00 PM. By taking the "over" wager, you are wagering "honor" on the proposition that the promotion will last beyond 1:00 PM in some form before it is fully shut down. I am matching that with an equal amount of "honor" that the game will be fully shut down before 1:00 PM.
Do I get my 12:45PM to 1:15PM "honor" Vig?
I also offer the proposition of 3-to-1 "honor" odds that the promotion is fully shut down before its natural termination.
The "restrictions" over/under line is 9:00 AM.
--Dorothy
"Who would have thought a good little girl like you could destroy my beautiful wickedness!"
July 7th, 2010 at 2:54:54 PM
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For this table, are you assuming that the player is allowed to triple down after splitting as well? I suspect the casino will limit tripling down to first two cards only, and enforce standard double-down rules after a split. Does this assumption change your split strategy or house/player edge?
July 7th, 2010 at 4:58:06 PM
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I assumed triple/quadruple after a split is allowed, which is their normal rule at Mohegan Sun. If they don't allow all it, then the player should use the standard splitting strategy. Limiting the triple/quadruple to the first two cards only would not make a huge difference in player advantage. If they want to water it down, they will need to do something more effective than that.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
July 7th, 2010 at 7:41:47 PM
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Keep in mind guys.. this is a PROMOTION..
The casino is EXPECTING to lose money on this.
Surely the bean counters calculated how much they're going to lose from this already.
Though $500 seems a bit high.. that limit will probably be lowered
The casino is EXPECTING to lose money on this.
Surely the bean counters calculated how much they're going to lose from this already.
Though $500 seems a bit high.. that limit will probably be lowered
July 7th, 2010 at 8:46:12 PM
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Wizard:
Do you have any idea how this would affect the index plays with a standard hi-lo count?
You can probably split 10s with a lower count, because it opens the possibility for a triple/quad down if you get an ace on one of the 10s (and obviously you'd only split 10s against a 5/6 upcard)
I'd also think that tripling/quadding a blackjack instead of taking 3:2 (if they allow) it, or tripling/quadding a soft 20 would become profitable at a certain count.
With correct index plays I think you can add around .15% to your player advantage.
Do you have any idea how this would affect the index plays with a standard hi-lo count?
You can probably split 10s with a lower count, because it opens the possibility for a triple/quad down if you get an ace on one of the 10s (and obviously you'd only split 10s against a 5/6 upcard)
I'd also think that tripling/quadding a blackjack instead of taking 3:2 (if they allow) it, or tripling/quadding a soft 20 would become profitable at a certain count.
With correct index plays I think you can add around .15% to your player advantage.
July 7th, 2010 at 9:37:32 PM
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I believe Mohegan Sun forbids splitting 10's.
July 7th, 2010 at 9:51:39 PM
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Quote: jmaftirI believe Mohegan Sun forbids splitting 10's.
Why would they do that?
Why would any casino do that?
It's a highly negative value, stupid play (even counting, it's very rare the count goes high enough to justify splitting 10s), made by stupid people.
Casinos don't make rules to prevent people from wasting their money
July 8th, 2010 at 2:59:53 AM
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Quote: f2d
Do you have any idea how this would affect the index plays with a standard hi-lo count?
No, sorry, I have not studied strategy deviations based on the count. Given how strong this is, I wouldn't fuss with counting and just play basic strategy.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
July 8th, 2010 at 7:57:27 AM
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I wonder how many AP's are flying to Mohegan Sun to bet a nickel every hand for 24 hours?
July 8th, 2010 at 9:10:56 AM
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Quote: WizardNo, sorry, I have not studied strategy deviations based on the count. Given how strong this is, I wouldn't fuss with counting and just play basic strategy.
I agree that the advantage from counting is mostly gone since you'd be max betting what your bankroll allows all the time, but assuming 120 hands per hour @ $150 / hand (if you can play 2 spots), a 0.1% additional edge from correct index plays = $18 / hour. This can probably be achieved with just the standard index plays (especially on situations like quadding down on 10 vs 10 at +4! Those index plays become far more valuable!)
Might not be worthwhile to formulate (and remember) all new index plays for a one off thing, but it's definitely worth playing the standard ones.
If I had the choice of a 1.56% edge for no effort or a 1.66% edge for a little bit of effort i'd take the latter anyday.
I'm thinking about going to MS for this. If it's triple down it's probably not worth the trip, if it's quad down I'd have to check it out. If I were to go I'd be there at 6 AM sharp and max bet as many spots as they allow me to play until they shut the promo down. I think they'll probably kill the promotion or toss me out by 10 AM or so.
July 8th, 2010 at 9:57:03 AM
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Quote: f2dWhy would they do that?
Why would any casino do that?
It's a highly negative value, stupid play (even counting, it's very rare the count goes high enough to justify splitting 10s), made by stupid people.
Casinos don't make rules to prevent people from wasting their money
In the U.K., prior to a rule change in 2007 you couldn't split fours, fives, or tens in casinos there (the only one that affected BS players were the fours, and even then it was a small cost). I don't know what that rule was about.
I have heard of casinos/tables that don't allow splitting aces at all; it's obvious that rule is put in place to increase the house edge.
Also, when casinos restrict what hands you can double down on (e.g. 9-11 or 10-11 only) I'm sure that costs them some money from people who make obviously bad doubles (e.g. those who double stiff hands).
July 8th, 2010 at 10:45:11 AM
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Quote: KellynbnfIn the U.K., prior to a rule change in 2007 you couldn't split fours, fives, or tens in casinos there (the only one that affected BS players were the fours, and even then it was a small cost). I don't know what that rule was about.
I have heard of casinos/tables that don't allow splitting aces at all; it's obvious that rule is put in place to increase the house edge.
Also, when casinos restrict what hands you can double down on (e.g. 9-11 or 10-11 only) I'm sure that costs them some money from people who make obviously bad doubles (e.g. those who double stiff hands).
Well, the 9-11 and 10-11 hands are advantageous to the casino since it blocks the profitable soft doubles (granted, a lot of people dont double soft hands when they should). Very few people double non-ace hands other then 10 or 11 anyhow.
Not allowing you to split fours/fives/tens mostly blocks hugely negative value plays done by bad players.
Granted the fours are profitable to split vs the 5/6 upcard, but I'm sure that rule costs the casino more then they make off the few people who properly split them.
July 8th, 2010 at 11:03:25 AM
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I have been reading with great interest the various members input regarding the mohegansun blackjack promotion. I live 45 minutes from the casino in Ct and play bj 3-4 times a week. I am considered a regular and have been since they opened. I know many of the staff including pit bosses, shift managers and some of the directors. If I may I have some comments some of which is based on conversations with the aforesaid and some are my own opinions.
First off the casino carefully contemplates every decision with excruciating checks and balances including all promotions. Anyone that believes that some sharpies from vegas are going to bring the house down will be surely disappointed. The bottom line has been anticipated. This is not to say some people will win and some very big. The promotion will run the entire schedule with no restrictions. For any of you gents coming on down for the day and new to the casino heres the layout: In the sky casino 1 section 5 tables $500 min. Also in the sky $100min about 20-25 tables. In the old section $50 min tables about 20 tables. Try to stay away from $25 or less they DO NOT have midshoe entry restrictions.
GOOD LUCK TO ALL
First off the casino carefully contemplates every decision with excruciating checks and balances including all promotions. Anyone that believes that some sharpies from vegas are going to bring the house down will be surely disappointed. The bottom line has been anticipated. This is not to say some people will win and some very big. The promotion will run the entire schedule with no restrictions. For any of you gents coming on down for the day and new to the casino heres the layout: In the sky casino 1 section 5 tables $500 min. Also in the sky $100min about 20-25 tables. In the old section $50 min tables about 20 tables. Try to stay away from $25 or less they DO NOT have midshoe entry restrictions.
GOOD LUCK TO ALL
IF YOU PLAY "PLAY TO WIN"
July 8th, 2010 at 11:13:42 AM
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Quote: f2dWhy would they do that?
Why would any casino do that?
It's a highly negative value, stupid play (even counting, it's very rare the count goes high enough to justify splitting 10s), made by stupid people.
Casinos don't make rules to prevent people from wasting their money
You are applying logic to casinos. One has nothing to do with the other.
July 8th, 2010 at 11:26:16 AM
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Quote: DorothyGaleYes, "shut down" means completely gone. And the line is 1:00 PM. By taking the "over" wager, you are wagering "honor" on the proposition that the promotion will last beyond 1:00 PM in some form before it is fully shut down. I am matching that with an equal amount of "honor" that the game will be fully shut down before 1:00 PM.
Do I get my 12:45PM to 1:15PM "honor" Vig?
I also offer the proposition of 3-to-1 "honor" odds that the promotion is fully shut down before its natural termination.
The "restrictions" over/under line is 9:00 AM.
--Dorothy
I will take the "over" on the 1 pm shut down (with Vig), and will also take the 3-1, as I believe that it will run the full term.
A question for the AP's: Are there marginal circumstances where a double down would still be the most appropriate play, even if triple down is allowed?
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
July 8th, 2010 at 11:52:41 AM
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Quote: Ayecarumba
A question for the AP's: Are there marginal circumstances where a double down would still be the most appropriate play, even if triple down is allowed?
No, for the same reason that it is never correct to "double for less." From my blackjack appendix 5 every correct doubling play has a positive expected value. For that reason, you should want to bet as much as possible.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
July 8th, 2010 at 1:07:14 PM
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Quote: only1choiceFor any of you gents coming on down for the day and new to the casino heres the layout: In the sky casino 1 section 5 tables $500 min. Also in the sky $100min about 20-25 tables. In the old section $50 min tables about 20 tables. Try to stay away from $25 or less they DO NOT have midshoe entry restrictions.
Not that this applies to this humble gent, but $500 min tables cannot participate in the promotion. The rules state a triple down bet of $500 max, so $500 original bet plus $500 max additional bet is only a traditional double-down play.
July 8th, 2010 at 9:04:31 PM
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I'm bad. Thank you for the correction. Also by the way I just got back from ms tonite. I had a conversation with a buddy of mine who is a gaming shift manager. He thinks the casino will take a bath on the promotion but he heard It will go on as scheduled no changes. Money in your pockets, ALWAYS.
IF YOU PLAY "PLAY TO WIN"
July 9th, 2010 at 2:07:24 PM
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I must be missing something obvious. I would expect to just substitute a triple-down wager in place of a double-down for this promotion, but the strategy given here has many differences compared to what is recommended for a double-down game having the same decks and rules. Examples are tripling with hard 8 facing a 6 and splitting 4's facing a 4. If a hand doesn't have an advantage that's worth doubling your bet, why triple it?
“You don’t bring a bone saw to a negotiation.” - Robert Jordan, former U.S. ambassador to Saudi Arabia
July 9th, 2010 at 2:17:07 PM
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Quote: BleedingChipsSlowlyI must be missing something obvious. I would expect to just substitute a triple-down wager in place of a double-down for this promotion, but the strategy given here has many differences compared to what is recommended for a double-down game having the same decks and rules. Examples are tripling with hard 8 facing a 6 and splitting 4's facing a 4. If a hand doesn't have an advantage that's worth doubling your bet, why triple it?
Based on an infinite-deck, and dealer stands on soft 17, here are the expected values for hard 8 vs. 6:
Hit: 0.11496015
Double: 0.087015198
Triple: 0.130522797
So doubling is positive, but not enough to make it better than hitting. The additional expected value by tripling is enough to make it better than hitting.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
July 9th, 2010 at 3:48:06 PM
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Quote: only1choiceI had a conversation with a buddy of mine who is a gaming shift manager. He thinks the casino will take a bath on the promotion but he heard It will go on as scheduled no changes.
Great news! If it goes as scheduled, I stand to quadruple my honor! Whatever shall I do?
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
July 9th, 2010 at 4:43:59 PM
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Quote: AyecarumbaGreat news! If it goes as scheduled, I stand to quadruple my honor! Whatever shall I do?
I hedged my bets, and have $10 at 3-1 with a friend that it goes as planned the full 24 hours.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
July 9th, 2010 at 4:50:51 PM
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Just curious, how well does $10 at 3-1 balance off with your honor?Quote: WizardI hedged my bets, and have $10 at 3-1 with a friend that it goes as planned the full 24 hours.
July 9th, 2010 at 7:49:32 PM
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Quote: DocJust curious, how well does $10 at 3-1 balance off with your honor?
I also think that reports of the promotion's quick demise have been greatly exaggerated. It's 24 hours, not a week. I've played for several shoes without the opportunity to double down, and each bet is most definitely not a sure winner, so bankrolls can be obliterated quickly. Maybe they'll take a hit, but I have a feeling those pits will still be profitable for the day.
July 9th, 2010 at 9:27:47 PM
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Quote: DocJust curious, how well does $10 at 3-1 balance off with your honor?
$30 would go a long way to help ease the pain of losing it.
Quote: cclub79I also think that reports of the promotion's quick demise have been greatly exaggerated. It's 24 hours, not a week. I've played for several shoes without the opportunity to double down, and each bet is most definitely not a sure winner, so bankrolls can be obliterated quickly. Maybe they'll take a hit, but I have a feeling those pits will still be profitable for the day.
I roughly calculate they will lose about 2M on this, assuming they go the full 24 hours, and depending on the ratio of well-financed advantage players taking up the much-valued seats. I'm quite sure they are big enough to take that kind of a loss, and more than 25% sure that they will honor their own deal. It would be good publicity if they do, and terrible publicity if they don't.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
July 10th, 2010 at 12:49:39 AM
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so that expected profit of $229.50 per hour can actually be almost $700 an hour if MS allows players to
play three hands like most casinos do? Although Im assuming during a popular promotion like this they
wouldnt allow players to play multiple hands. Id walk in with 2 decoy friends and have them sit with me.
play three hands like most casinos do? Although Im assuming during a popular promotion like this they
wouldnt allow players to play multiple hands. Id walk in with 2 decoy friends and have them sit with me.
July 10th, 2010 at 8:33:47 AM
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Here is a worst case scenario for the casino. Their web site says they have 300 table games. Let's assume the following:
BJ tables 200
Spots/table 6
Total hours 24
Hands/hr 60
Avg. bet 250
Player advantage 0.0153
The product of all the above is $6,609,600. However, that is assuming the worst at every step of the way. Things that will bring it down are:
1. Not opening all tables, and/or switching some to other games for the day.
2. Asking the dealers to slow play the game. Do lots of rack fills, changing cards, and anything else to slow it down.
3. Not all the players are going to bet the optimal $250/hand. Some won't have the bankroll for it, and others will be recreational players who bet small regardless of the rules.
4. Not every player will know the correct strategy. Likely few will.
I roughly figure these factors will bring the loss down to about 2M, assuming it goes unchanged the full 24 hours.
BJ tables 200
Spots/table 6
Total hours 24
Hands/hr 60
Avg. bet 250
Player advantage 0.0153
The product of all the above is $6,609,600. However, that is assuming the worst at every step of the way. Things that will bring it down are:
1. Not opening all tables, and/or switching some to other games for the day.
2. Asking the dealers to slow play the game. Do lots of rack fills, changing cards, and anything else to slow it down.
3. Not all the players are going to bet the optimal $250/hand. Some won't have the bankroll for it, and others will be recreational players who bet small regardless of the rules.
4. Not every player will know the correct strategy. Likely few will.
I roughly figure these factors will bring the loss down to about 2M, assuming it goes unchanged the full 24 hours.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
