Betting systems never work in the long run - AGREED - lets talk about the short term.

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February 8th, 2012 at 9:29:22 PM permalink

PapaChubby

Member since: Mar 29, 2010
Threads: 9
Posts: 342

During a weekend in Vegas I can flat bet for 10 hours of blackjack on tables with a 0.5% house edge (or so). Assuming I have sufficient bankroll, there is about a 45% chance that I will make money during the session.

I can do this twice a year for 20 years, and there will still be an 11% chance that I'll finish a winner. One out of 9 people who play in this fashion will have winning gambling careers.

And just to take things to extremes, lets say that I have an "average" blackjack career. With $25 average bets, I'll lose an average of $100 per session, or $4000 over my career. On my last trip to Vegas, I could place $5000 on red at the roulette table, which would be a pretty bad bet. But there is still a 47% chance that I will finish my career a winner.

February 8th, 2012 at 9:34:46 PM permalink
EvenBob Member since: Jul 18, 2010 Threads: 231 Posts: 6361	Quote: PapaChubby One out of 9 people who play in this fashion will have winning gambling careers. So there should be hundreds of players in Vegas alone earning their livings doing this. Where are they? One casino owner to another: "It would be so much easier if we could just hit them over the head, steal their money, and throw their bodies in the creek." Al Swearengen, Deadwood

February 8th, 2012 at 9:35:05 PM permalink
PapaChubby Member since: Mar 29, 2010 Threads: 9 Posts: 342	Quote: EvenBob Nope, I asked if he knew anybody. Quotes from you: Only in the very beginning of your gambling career can you maybe get ahead and stay there for a little while. But very soon the losses outweigh the wins and you're chasing for the rest of your life. The vast majority of casino patrons have no idea they can't get ahead and stay ahead.

February 8th, 2012 at 9:36:05 PM permalink

slackyhacky

Member since: Jan 18, 2012
Threads: 16
Posts: 141

Quote: awakefield1983
Why is this subject so taboo within the elite gambling community?

1) This holier than thou routine with regards to proper betting etiquette and optimal strategy gets incredibly old. Lest we forget that we are all playing a game with a negative expected return for the player, we all know it, we all accept it and we continue to play. We can hide behind saying things like "I just enjoy playing the game" or "this is what I'm willing to pay for the entertainment value". These casino games are inherently dry and boring; Is it really all that excited trying to collect a sum of cards that add up to 21? No, the excitement comes from winning, from trying to avoid losing, from trying to minimize the house edge as much as possible, from the possibility of walking away with some of the casino's money; its how we keep score. Can you imagine watching a basketball game where no score is kept? No, it would be boring. We try to beat the casino after spotting them some points up front (the house edge) and it's the gambling that is fun, not the game itself. People don't buy scratch off tickets because they enjoy taking a quarter to a piece of cardboard - they enjoy the possibility of winning.

2) When debunking betting systems, it is always said that in the long-run you are no better or worse off than flat betting, the system can't beat the game, you will always approach the house edge. If this is so.......then what the heck does it really matter if someone uses a system???? You are no better or worse off in the long-run! Therefore, the flat bettor and the progressive bettor end up the same eventually, so why does the progressive bettor look like a bonehead and the flat bettor look like a mathematical genius?

3) Shackleford himself admits that a system such as the martingale will see a profit the majority of the time in a given session, however, the few losses far exceed the small wins and cannot beat the house edge in the long-run. I agree with this statement 100%. Granted the losing session can happen right out of the gate, but so can a natural royal flush in video poker. SO...If, in the long-run, the end result is the same (the house edge/expected negative return) and in the short term a progressive system works the majority of the time for a given session, AND a gambler sticks to his set amount that he is comfortable losing, why is it so insulting to the gambling gods to give it a try during a given session?

The individual who only plays one time for 1 hour - doesn't need to win in the long-run

Just a couple thoughts to get people talking again...

Thumbs up!

Love this post - have felt the same. People are very critical of "systems", yet you can't bet without a system. Flat betting is the system. It's called flat betting system.

Systems are fun I think. They are fun to tinker with. They are fun to explore, invent, decipher, etc.

Not sure why many on here think that if you mention the word system that is synonymous with the belief of not losing. Very strange indeed.

by the way, my system works. ;)

February 8th, 2012 at 9:38:57 PM permalink

PapaChubby

Member since: Mar 29, 2010
Threads: 9
Posts: 342

Quote: EvenBob
So there should be hundreds of players in Vegas alone
earning their livings doing this. Where are they?

Who said anything about earning a living? You've got to stop shifting the foundation of the discussion to cover your tracks. Based on my example, I'm talking about the possibility of being up maybe as much as $10,000 over a lifetime. You know, recreational gambling. And not losing.

Edit: Oops, I apologize if there was any confusion over my use of the term "career". I simply meant this to be the lifetime experience of a recreational gambler. I certainly did not mean "occupation." If you're going to gamble enough to have any chance of making a living off of it, then you're definitely entering into long term territory and have negligible chance of coming out ahead. Definitely not a suitable career choice.

February 8th, 2012 at 9:56:55 PM permalink

YoDiceRoll11

Member since: Jan 9, 2012
Threads: 7
Posts: 529

Quote: slackyhacky
Flat betting is the system. It's called flat betting system.

Systems are fun I think. They are fun to tinker with. They are fun to explore, invent, decipher, etc.

You are absolutely right.

Quote:
Not sure why many on here think that if you mention the word system that is synonymous with the belief of not losing. Very strange indeed.

Because the MAJORITY of the time, people mention the word system with a belief in not losing. See below.

Quote:
by the way, my system works. ;)

And what is that system? And what is "works"?

February 8th, 2012 at 10:02:11 PM permalink

mrjjj

Member since: Sep 4, 2010
Threads: 62
Posts: 1302

"by the way, my system works" >>> Oh boy, now you stepped in it. They're gonna insist it goes through a test of
700,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 trials and when it fails, 'they' will be on you like white on rice. I say, if it works for you, I think thats awesome, good job buddy!!!

Ken

If I agreed with you, we'd both be wrong. Playing at the casino doesn't make you a pro any more than standing in a garage makes you a car. I prefer to be hated for telling the truth, than loved for telling a lie. No person has yet convinced me that their way of playing roulette is better than my way. Winners have simply formed the habit of doing things roulette AP players don't like to do. I'm sure AP (roulette) worked just fine back in 1923. Gambler's Fallacy is a term coined by unsuccessful gamblers to validate their reasons for losing. 5.26%, so what?......I get taxed everyday. Believe those who are seeking the truth. Doubt those who find it. Bad news.....throwing in the towel after spending a TOTAL of 9 hours on roulette does NOT mean you can't be successful with it. Don't let the '2+2 will never equal 5' crowd bring you down. TRIAL & ERROR guys, I can't say it enough! When you're finished changing, you're finished.

February 8th, 2012 at 10:13:05 PM permalink

EvenBob

Member since: Jul 18, 2010
Threads: 231
Posts: 6361

Quote: PapaChubby
But very soon the losses outweigh the
wins and you're chasing for the rest of your life.

And thats true for 99.9% of gamblers. There's always
exceptions. I forgot about Mrjjj, he's also ahead. I know
this for a fact, not just because he says so.

One casino owner to another: "It would be so much easier if we could just hit them over the head, steal their money, and throw their bodies in the creek." Al Swearengen, Deadwood

February 8th, 2012 at 10:14:34 PM permalink
EvenBob Member since: Jul 18, 2010 Threads: 231 Posts: 6361	Quote: PapaChubby Definitely not a suitable career choice. There you go, then. One casino owner to another: "It would be so much easier if we could just hit them over the head, steal their money, and throw their bodies in the creek." Al Swearengen, Deadwood

February 8th, 2012 at 10:34:39 PM permalink

YoDiceRoll11

Member since: Jan 9, 2012
Threads: 7
Posts: 529

Quote: mrjjj
"by the way, my system works" >>> Oh boy, now you stepped in it. They're gonna insist it goes through a test of
700,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 trials and when it fails, 'they' will be on you like white on rice. I say, if it works for you, I think thats awesome, good job buddy!!!

Ken

Actually Ken, not at all. I'm just curious what it is. I don't care if he runs it through 7 tests, or 7 billion tests. Why is it that the people who claim others are pessimistic are so pessimistic??

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