ANYTHING BUT 7

If you woulda waited for 7Craps to respond you wouldn't have had an opinion. I wasn't asking if I had stumbled onto something no one else to include MIT mathemeticians haven't discovered...I was only asking for a reasonable response to something that I found interesting. Find another thread to respond to, I can do without your input!

Quote: YoDiceRoll11

7craps, does your auto bet file for the Iron Cross also show the cumulative odds with the higher than Martingale betting progression? I think it would show slightly less winners and slightly more losers.

I used the OP betting progression if that is what you mean.
Here is the section of code:
While . . .
Last roll was a come-out roll
A point is established on any number
Chip-Stack # 1 is equal to $ 1
then . . .
Bet $ 5 on Field
Bet $ 10 on Place 5
Bet $ 12 on Place 6
Bet $ 12 on Place 8
Go to "end"
While . . .
Last roll was a come-out roll
A point is established on any number
Chip-Stack # 1 is equal to $ 2
then . . .
Bet $ 40 on Field
Bet $ 60 on Place 5
Bet $ 72 on Place 6
Bet $ 72 on Place 8
Go to "end"
While . . .
A point is established on any number
Last roll was a come-out roll
Chip-Stack # 1 is equal to $ 3
then . . .
Bet $ 300 on Field
Bet $ 425 on Place 5
Bet $ 510 on Place 6
Bet $ 510 on Place 8
end

The auto-bet file is just to run the simulation.
WinCraps gathers way more stats than you can use, but at times I also print to a file so I can import into Excel for even more data crunching.
I did not do that for this simulation.
I found his method of playing the Iron Cross a bit interesting compared to other methods, so I threw a bit of my time at it.

I did not run a sim playing sessions like he does.
I was more into seeing the distribution of ending bankrolls and WinCraps shows all that in a Games Log file that one can save for later viewing.

Quote: wrragsdale

Given your numbers, and I do respect them, does only playing for three hours ( I DO NOT exceed three) eliminate this number being met??? Could I play 5 or 6 hours????

No.
You need to be only counting how many come out rolls you see, how many establish points and how many times you have action at each level.
rolls per hour or per session is really a non-issue.

Quote: wrragsdale

Another question I had was that given your reality...was those that lost 69%, 57.75%, 1.84%, and .53 use the same method of exponentialing that I have been using???

Yes. You can see my code in the above post. I think I duplicated your bet amounts correctly.

Quote: wrragsdale

For you specifically, is the fact that I'm only working through 225-300 rolls a factor in it's working? Why nine in a row? I am 68.00 over where I started so I'm up 68 bucks?!?!
It just fascinates me that I keep standing there 3 hours at a time and keep cashing out more than what I bought in for which is always a plus...am I setting myself up for a bust soon???

Again, a session of play is not a factor. It is all about how many bets you actually make. Since you only bet after a point is established and remove them after a win or loss, sessions and number of rolls really mean nothing.
You are on a winning streak. When will it end?
No one knows exactly when until it does.
I do not think you will bust your bankroll since 3 PSOs in a row will cost you $2,028 if I added that correctly. You already have profits built up.

Ride the Wave of winning until you lose, I say. Then be very careful to try again. I would not. But it is your money.

Amazing a simulation can be run to duplicate this method.
You did say above that you did not run a simulation for this method but where would I go to set up a simulation to duplicate this.
All of your info to this point has been more helpful than anyone else but I wouldn't want you burn a lot of time on me.

"I found his method of playing the Iron Cross a bit interesting compared to other methods, so I threw a bit of my time at it."
Isn't it funny the way it just keeps working.
I've also been playing an iPhone craps game while I have downtime and I'm 4,000 rolls in and averaging 90.00 per hour.
I know you wrote that rolls per hour is a non issue.
So ultimately it boils down to the simplicity of 6 in 36 versus 30 in 36.?

Quote: wrragsdale

Amazing a simulation can be run to duplicate this method.
You did say above that you did not run a simulation for this method but where would I go to set up a simulation to duplicate this.
All of your info to this point has been more helpful than anyone else but I wouldn't want you burn a lot of time on me.

I actually did program your system exactly the way you wager.
I did not run many short sessions the way you actually play since a bunch of short sessions of independent trials is actually one very long session. This is a concept most gamblers will never understand.
I had 100,000 different payers play your system and stopped playing the first time they actually hit 3 in a row PSO losing the 3 progressions.
Less than 31,000 showed a profit.
That is a very poor result IMO.

Quote: wrragsdale

"I found his method of playing the Iron Cross a bit interesting compared to other methods, so I threw a bit of my time at it."
Isn't it funny the way it just keeps working.

No, not really.
You still are missing the over all point on how fast any one can lose playing this way.

I played your system over the 35,097 Zumma Craps Tester Book actual dice rolls.
The 3 in a row PSO happened at roll 597.
The players loss was $1417.
He is way bummed. he has chosen never to play your system again.

The sequence of rolls were: (cor = come out roll)
shooterA: cor 5,8,9,6,9,2,5 winner, new cor 9,7(first PSO)
shooterB: cor 10,7 ouch!! (second PSO)
shooterC: cor 11 winner, new cor 8,7 (third PSO) (This shooter actually had 2 come out rolls in his hand)

The average number of rolls to see the 3 level losses (progressions of your system) with PSO looks to be ~ 1280.
That is because there actually can be come out rolls in between the 3 PSOs progressions that do lose.

So instead of an average of 819 come out rolls to see 3 level PSO as I stated earlier...

the stats show an average of 380 come out rolls for 3 in a row losing progressions.
as mentioned WinCraps tracks tons of information from games played.
I think that the most important stat is about 70% of players that play your method will end up a looser after losing their 3 progressions.
The 30% that do win (show a profit after losing 3 progressions) and try again...

Absolutely intriguing!!!
Sorry for the player's loss...

"The average number of rolls to see the 3 level losses (progressions of your system) with PSO looks to be ~ 1280"
I see what you mean by my not seeing the eventuality, but at 1280 I wouldn't ever get to 1280 rolls. At 100 rolls per hour I'd have to stand there 10 hours =(
Shooter A,B, and C...are they three different shooter's??? I didn't follow that sequence? Each one had one PSO?
Hey how does dice change on the next shooter affect outcomes? After each PSO, the next shooter has the choice of 2 of 5 dice.

Quote: wrragsdale

Absolutely intriguing!!!
Sorry for the player's loss...

I do not think 7craps lost money playing your system.
It was just played in a WinCraps sim using actual recorded dice rolls.

Quote: wrragsdale

"The average number of rolls to see the 3 level losses (progressions of your system) with PSO looks to be ~ 1280"
I see what you mean by my not seeing the eventuality, but at 1280 I wouldn't ever get to 1280 rolls. At 100 rolls per hour I'd have to stand there 10 hours =(
Shooter A,B, and C...are they three different shooter's??? I didn't follow that sequence? Each one had one PSO?
Hey how does dice change on the next shooter affect outcomes? After each PSO, the next shooter has the choice of 2 of 5 dice.

I see that you only make your bets after a point is established.
This happens on average every 5 dice rolls (557/110 to be exact)
If you play 300 dice rolls each session you play, then you are only making about 60 total wagers per session - right after each point is established.
To me it comes down to just seeing 3 7s in a row while your bets are actually made.

Now, your session misunderstanding.
If the average number of rolls is 1280 to lose your progression.
Day 1 you play 300 rolls
day 2 another 300 rolls... well
It only takes 4 days of play to see 1200 total dice rolls. And you would have about a 63% chance of losing your progression within any 1280 dice rolls.

It does not matter what dice you use from the 5 offered to you, each dice roll is an independent roll, so the sum of many independent dice rolls will start to converge towards the average. Just because you only see 300 dice rolls each day does not mean you will never lose 3 progressions.
I hope this makes more sense.

Most Iron Cross players also bet the pass line bet on the come out roll. Why not you?

For all:
There is a WinCraps auto-bet file named YASS

' YASS (Yet Another Spread System) as proposed by Stacy Friedman
' Goals:
' 1) Insure a bankroll increase on every roll until seven-out.
' 2) Insure a greater win as time passes.
' 3) Lots of action, all the time.
' 4) Playable at any table offering full 2x odds or better.
' 5) Progressively replace higher EV wagers with lower ones.
He adds come bets and takes down the place bets when hit to use as odds on the come bets.
His method has lots of action and a lower overall house edge.
Enjoy!

Quote: wrragsdale

Shooter A,B, and C...are they three different shooter's???

Yes. The book did not have their names :)

Quote: wrragsdale

I didn't follow that sequence? Each one had one PSO?

Yes.
the "cor" means come out roll.(example: cor 5 - point is a 5, next roll, next roll, next roll and so on)

shooterA: cor 5 - point is a 5, 8, 9, 6, 9, 2, 5 winner, new cor 9 - point is a 9, 7 out (first PSO)
shooterB: cor 10 - point is a 10, 7 ouch!! (second PSO)
shooterC: cor 11 winner, new cor 8, 7 out(third PSO)
Three progressions lost.
You won on the roll of 8 (2nd roll) by shooterA

You lost on the 7 out by shooterA (the 9th roll)
You lost on the 7 out by shooterB (the 2nd roll)
You lost on the 7 out by shooterC (the 3rd roll)

Just keep playing and let us know how much money you have left when you finally lose your 3 progressions in a row.




Go 49ers!

"I do not think 7craps lost money playing your system.
It was just played in a WinCraps sim using actual recorded dice rolls."

What was that outcome...so you don't think 7Craps lost money???

"Now, your session misunderstanding.
If the average number of rolls is 1280 to lose your progression.
Day 1 you play 300 rolls
day 2 another 300 rolls... well
It only takes 4 days of play to see 1200 total dice rolls. And you would have about a 63% chance of losing your progression within any 1280 dice rolls."
Now, correct me if I'm wrong, but if I'm adding the days together to get to the 1280 wouldn't I be making each day's numbers hinge on the other? I really play more off time than rolls. I get to the table, set an alarm on my phone for 3 hours and when it goes off I cash out.

So sorry, you asked me..."Most Iron Cross players also bet the pass line bet on the come out roll. Why not you?"

Is there an advantage I'm not seeing? I just choose not to but if I'm missing something?