WatchMeWin
WatchMeWin
Joined: May 20, 2011
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April 17th, 2017 at 5:57:59 PM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

I think mamat summed it up fairly well.

Trust me, if there was a way to beat 1000 of casinos practically heat free, 24/7 365 on craps, roulette, baccarat with some betting system or positive energy mumbo-jumbo, I wouldn't be spending time talking to you here.



You stated that there are rare good opportunities and threats. This implies that there are some good opportunities to win spirit I just was asking you what those rare circumstances are that you believe to be good.? Incense you are the smartest guy in the room, I just wanted to know what table games you play?
'Winners hit n run... Losers stick around'
troopscott
troopscott
Joined: Apr 3, 2017
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April 20th, 2017 at 1:11:21 PM permalink
so I went in and played my "system" a little last night at the casino. after about an hour of play I was up about $40. During that time I should have just been betting the field every number with some parlays lol, There was a streak of 16 straight field numbers including 3 "12's and 2 "2's" My betting chances were few and far between with what seemed to be field numbers every couple rolls which led me to fooling around with the hardways. The "organic" craps machine keeps track of how many rolls a number has been rolled without a hardway. My little system I played decided to wait 100 rolls for a number to not be thrown hard and then put $10 on it. That number became the 10. , 7 came, went to 15, 7 came, went to 30 number made easy and in an final act of defiance and stupidity (around 130 rolls now) I went to $60 first roll hard 10 take the money and leave that little jewel alone for $10 hardways.

The other thing I noted while I was there it seemed to be every 7-8 rolls a 2,3,11,12 was rolled. My math says that is about right(should be every 6 I believe). I began tinkering with quite a bit of success waiting 8 rolls for no horn bet numbers and then putting $4 out. at 11 rolls(3 since the betting start) I went to $2 each and the longest it got was to 13 at which point I had $3 per number ($12 total) when the 12 came which was a nice payday. Generally I would hit it in the first couple rolls.

The machines are $10-10k and $25-10k the 25 machine is usually pretty empty or 1-2 people most at it

Anyway I know these are long term losers just looking at them checking out the potential for a short term score here and there
LuckyPhow
LuckyPhow
Joined: May 19, 2016
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April 20th, 2017 at 2:02:05 PM permalink
Quote: troopscott

so I went in and played my "system" a little last night at the casino. after about an hour of play I was up about $40.



Even if they aren't supposed to work, it can be fun sometimes to play some type of "system." But, you are indeed a brave man to boast about it here. Don't say you weren't warned.

Quote: troopscott

The other thing I noted while I was there it seemed to be every 7-8 rolls a 2,3,11,12 was rolled. My math says that is about right(should be every 6 I believe).



Hmmm... 2, 3, 11, and 12 were hitting a lot? Mike McGuire wrote a book called, The Ultimate Dice Book: A Player's Guide to Craps. He correctly notes any "system" with worse than a 1.5% house advantage "contradicts all common sense." But, an advertising executive who has done work for McGuire consistently pays for his secretary's salary using a 3-or-11 martingale. McGuire reports the ad exec only bets this system when gambling, and McGuire reports seeing him win with it. Of course, another gambler's "mileage" may vary.

Choose one, the 3 or the 11. Bet $5. If it loses, increase your bet by $1. Rinse & repeat. Profit from a win varies, starting at $75 for a hit on the first roll. Profit increases roll by roll to rolls 12 and 13, where the gambler wins $130 in profit. After that, profit starts to decline a little each roll, until roll 27, where total profit is $10. If 3 or 11 are hitting and you enjoy "testing" different systems, this one has a total out-of-pocket cost of under $500. But, the gambler is playing against one of the high house-advantage bets.

Quote: troopscott

Anyway I know these are long term losers just looking at them checking out the potential for a short term score here and there



Amen. And, if you aren't an optimist, you probably shouldn't be in a casino anyway, right?
troopscott
troopscott
Joined: Apr 3, 2017
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April 20th, 2017 at 7:27:45 PM permalink
Quote: LuckyPhow

Even if they aren't supposed to work, it can be fun sometimes to play some type of "system." But, you are indeed a brave man to boast about it here. Don't say you weren't warned.



Hmmm... 2, 3, 11, and 12 were hitting a lot? Mike McGuire wrote a book called, The Ultimate Dice Book: A Player's Guide to Craps. He correctly notes any "system" with worse than a 1.5% house advantage "contradicts all common sense." But, an advertising executive who has done work for McGuire consistently pays for his secretary's salary using a 3-or-11 martingale. McGuire reports the ad exec only bets this system when gambling, and McGuire reports seeing him win with it. Of course, another gambler's "mileage" may vary.

Choose one, the 3 or the 11. Bet $5. If it loses, increase your bet by $1. Rinse & repeat. Profit from a win varies, starting at $75 for a hit on the first roll. Profit increases roll by roll to rolls 12 and 13, where the gambler wins $130 in profit. After that, profit starts to decline a little each roll, until roll 27, where total profit is $10. If 3 or 11 are hitting and you enjoy "testing" different systems, this one has a total out-of-pocket cost of under $500. But, the gambler is playing against one of the high house-advantage bets.



Amen. And, if you aren't an optimist, you probably shouldn't be in a casino anyway, right?



Yeah craps is a little side hobby for me. My two main casino games are Pai Gow and NLH poker (live) no internet stuff. Nice little change of pace after long sessions of either of those.
OnceDear
OnceDear
Joined: Jun 1, 2014
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April 21st, 2017 at 12:33:17 AM permalink
Quote: troopscott

so I went in and played my "system" a little last night at the casino.

If it was fun, good for you, but like Russian Roulette, the adrenaline rush of Marty can end in a bloody mess.
Quote:

My betting chances were few and far between . . . My little system I played decided to wait 100 rolls for a number to not be thrown hard

Why? Just WHY? You know the dice have no memory. Why persist in such an unsound practice?
Quote:

. . . waiting 8 rolls for no horn bet numbers and then putting $4 out.

Again, Why? Don't you know how pointless that is?
Quote:

Anyway I know these are long term losers just looking at them checking out the potential for a short term score here and there

They are medium term and short term losers too.
Embrace the Variance
RS
RS
Joined: Feb 11, 2014
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April 21st, 2017 at 12:47:58 AM permalink
Quote: WatchMeWin

You stated that there are rare good opportunities and threats. This implies that there are some good opportunities to win spirit I just was asking you what those rare circumstances are that you believe to be good.? Incense you are the smartest guy in the room, I just wanted to know what table games you play?



Re-read mamat's post about good opportunities in craps. HINT: They ain't available 24/7, like fairy tale positive-vibes money-management & betting systems. But they actually make money, unlike your fairy tale system.

I don't think Axel plays any table games with any consistency, as far as I know.
"What would Brian Boitano do?"
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
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April 21st, 2017 at 4:04:32 AM permalink
Quote: LuckyPhow

Even if they aren't supposed to work, it can be fun sometimes to play some type of "system." But, you are indeed a brave man to boast about it here. Don't say you weren't warned.Amen. And, if you aren't an optimist, you probably shouldn't be in a casino anyway, right?



Your unconventional comments about system players are somewhat interesting. I actually believe that a 4 stage patience martingale might be plus EV in baseball betting in a situation where a .500 team has lost 6 in a row. You would basically be betting that they won't lose 10 in a row. There are 2 things on your side. First, the fact that they have lost 6 in a row will cause their odds to be pushed up because bettors will often wrongly assume that a team that has lost 6 in a row is a pathetic team and more bettors will bet against them. Secondly, this team will care very much and be trying very hard to end their losing streak. The opposing team will care less about seeing their opponents losing streak continue if it is not a critical part of the season. The main drawback is if this team has to face a super pitcher with a 2.25 ERA. I don't like to bet against super pitchers even though it will raise my team's odds. I haven't tested it and it would require an enormous amount of data mining that I'm not willing to do, but my knowledge of sports betting and baseball suggests to me that it might work.
"gambling improves the flavor of life" ................... Nick the Greek
RS
RS
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April 21st, 2017 at 4:39:26 AM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

Your unconventional comments about system players are somewhat interesting. I actually believe that a 4 stage patience martingale might be plus EV in baseball betting in a situation where a .500 team has lost 6 in a row. You would basically be betting that they won't lose 10 in a row. There are 2 things on your side. First, the fact that they have lost 6 in a row will cause their odds to be pushed up because bettors will often wrongly assume that a team that has lost 6 in a row is a pathetic team and more bettors will bet against them. Secondly, this team will care very much and be trying very hard to end their losing streak. The opposing team will care less about seeing their opponents losing streak continue if it is not a critical part of the season. The main drawback is if this team has to face a super pitcher with a 2.25 ERA. I don't like to bet against super pitchers even though it will raise my team's odds. I haven't tested it and it would require an enormous amount of data mining that I'm not willing to do, but my knowledge of sports betting and baseball suggests to me that it might work.



Your advantage would come from a line being inaccurate // being able to make a line better than the sports book can, even if it's only for a limited time, series, event, etc. The martingale or whatever kind of betting system would NOT be the cause that it'd be +EV.

Here's a quick rule of thumb in determining whether martingale makes a bet or group of bets +EV: "Would I have an advantage WITHOUT using a bet progression?" If the answer is YES, then martingale is NOT the cause of the advantage.

To say the martingale is what causes a bet or group of bets to be an advantage would be to say betting without the martingale would make the bet a disadvantage.


Simply using math, if a team has a 50% chance of winning (or .500) or greater, if the money line is greater than +100 (ie: +101, +105, +110, etc.), then the wager would be an advantage.
"What would Brian Boitano do?"
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
Joined: May 8, 2015
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April 21st, 2017 at 4:50:56 AM permalink
Quote: RS

Your advantage would come from a line being inaccurate // being able to make a line better than the sports book can, even if it's only for a limited time, series, event, etc. The martingale or whatever kind of betting system would NOT be the cause that it'd be +EV.Here's a quick rule of thumb in determining whether martingale makes a bet or group of bets +EV: "Would I have an advantage WITHOUT using a bet progression?" If the answer is YES, then martingale is NOT the cause of the advantage.To say the martingale is what causes a bet or group of bets to be an advantage would be to say betting without the martingale would make the bet a disadvantage.Simply using math, if a team has a 50% chance of winning (or .500) or greater, if the money line is greater than +100 (ie: +101, +105, +110, etc.), then the wager would be an advantage.



Everything you said is true. My point is that in this situation the martingale would not increase the plusness of the EV but the fun would increase because the fun of the martingale is based on being very unlikely to lose even knowing that when you do lose you will lose much more. The fun of it is increased because in this situation, IMO you potentially get plus EV (though not due to the martingale) but also you are even more unlikely than average to lose within your progression. I would guess that just about every gambler, possibly including yourself, and most other APs have some fun money set aside in which they are not calculating the bet from every possible angle in order to squeeze the most out of it.
"gambling improves the flavor of life" ................... Nick the Greek
RS
RS
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April 21st, 2017 at 5:06:31 AM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

Everything you said is true. My point is that in this situation the martingale would not increase the plusness of the EV but the fun would increase because the fun of the martingale is based on being very unlikely to lose even knowing that when you do lose you will lose much more. The fun of it is increased because in this situation, IMO you potentially get plus EV (though not due to the martingale) but also you are even more unlikely than average to lose within your progression. I would guess that just about every gambler, possibly including yourself, and most other APs have some fun money set aside in which they are not calculating the bet from every possible angle in order to squeeze the most out of it.



Indeed. I didn't know you were talking about fun-ness in your above post.
"What would Brian Boitano do?"

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