slackyhacky
slackyhacky
Joined: Jan 18, 2012
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March 15th, 2017 at 9:45:39 AM permalink
ThatDonGuy,

Wow. My equation wasn't even close. Although not all is lost. I learned how to fit data points to a line and get an equation from that fit. It's a pretty cool excel function. I tried a 4th order polynomial but exponential seemed to fit the best.
bbvk05
bbvk05
Joined: Jan 12, 2011
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March 15th, 2017 at 11:53:42 AM permalink
Quote: slackyhacky

Bbvk05,

If you always live your life without doing things that you know are faulty - then you are an amazing person. You should write a book about your travels and choices - that would be an inspiring and wonderful read.



I don't think that's what I said. I said it doesn't get you much credit. Most importantly, the faulty thing here is a superstitious belief. I'm sure I have superstitious beliefs, and I eradicate them when I find them.
DeMango
DeMango
Joined: Feb 2, 2010
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March 15th, 2017 at 1:18:57 PM permalink
Quote: bbvk05

I'm sure I have superstitious beliefs, and I eradicate them when I find them.



Superstitious believe is a great weapon at a craps table. Turning bets off because of a tray lizard or stick change or .......
slackyhacky
slackyhacky
Joined: Jan 18, 2012
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March 18th, 2017 at 10:23:59 PM permalink
ThatDonGuy -

Your math skill are very impressive. Thanks for that. What is your background?

I have such a blind spot for stats.
ThatDonGuy
ThatDonGuy
Joined: Jun 22, 2011
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March 19th, 2017 at 12:38:22 PM permalink
Quote: slackyhacky

ThatDonGuy -

Your math skill are very impressive. Thanks for that. What is your background?

I have such a blind spot for stats.


"Mathhead" pretty much from birth
Bachelor's degree in Computer Science from Cal-Berkeley, 1984
To be fair, I am not as much of a statistics expert as it appears here - sites like Wolfram Mathworld are my (and your) friend.
billryan
billryan
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
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March 19th, 2017 at 2:24:25 PM permalink
Quote: ThatDonGuy

I couldn't calculate the numbers directly after 1050 - it seems that 0.492951051 exceeds the smallest possible positive value for a floating-point number in Visual Studio - but I did do a simulation of 250,000 sets of 32,000 bets, and got about a 3.65% chance of being ahead after 16,000 bets and 0.58% after 32,000.

Note that this does not take into account the possibility that your bankroll will run out before you reach 16,000 (or 32,000) bets. With infinite time and bankroll, every system that has the possibility of making money "works"...and I do mean infinite; I have run simulations where it took millions of years in order for a D'Alembert system on a 50-50 bet (i.e. house edge = zero) to make a profit.



So ya saying there is a chance?????
It's what you do and not what you say If you're not part of the future then get out of the way
ThatDonGuy
ThatDonGuy
Joined: Jun 22, 2011
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March 19th, 2017 at 3:50:30 PM permalink
Quote: billryan

Quote: ThatDonGuy

I couldn't calculate the numbers directly after 1050 - it seems that 0.492951051 exceeds the smallest possible positive value for a floating-point number in Visual Studio - but I did do a simulation of 250,000 sets of 32,000 bets, and got about a 3.65% chance of being ahead after 16,000 bets and 0.58% after 32,000.

Note that this does not take into account the possibility that your bankroll will run out before you reach 16,000 (or 32,000) bets. With infinite time and bankroll, every system that has the possibility of making money "works"...and I do mean infinite; I have run simulations where it took millions of years in order for a D'Alembert system on a 50-50 bet (i.e. house edge = zero) to make a profit.



So ya saying there is a chance?????


Yes. There's also a "chance" that you will win 16,000 bets in a row. Not a very likely one, mind you, but it's greater than zero.
billryan
billryan
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
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March 19th, 2017 at 4:17:07 PM permalink
Fantastic!!!!!
It's what you do and not what you say If you're not part of the future then get out of the way
slackyhacky
slackyhacky
Joined: Jan 18, 2012
  • Threads: 47
  • Posts: 348
April 1st, 2017 at 10:33:53 AM permalink
Quote: billryan

Quote: ThatDonGuy

I couldn't calculate the numbers directly after 1050 - it seems that 0.492951051 exceeds the smallest possible positive value for a floating-point number in Visual Studio - but I did do a simulation of 250,000 sets of 32,000 bets, and got about a 3.65% chance of being ahead after 16,000 bets and 0.58% after 32,000.

Note that this does not take into account the possibility that your bankroll will run out before you reach 16,000 (or 32,000) bets. With infinite time and bankroll, every system that has the possibility of making money "works"...and I do mean infinite; I have run simulations where it took millions of years in order for a D'Alembert system on a 50-50 bet (i.e. house edge = zero) to make a profit.



So ya saying there is a chance?????



Haha. Love it.
Thervid
Thervid
Joined: Feb 26, 2017
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April 3rd, 2017 at 10:50:49 PM permalink
Quote: ThatDonGuy

Quote: billryan

Quote: ThatDonGuy

I couldn't calculate the numbers directly after 1050 - it seems that 0.492951051 exceeds the smallest possible positive value for a floating-point number in Visual Studio - but I did do a simulation of 250,000 sets of 32,000 bets, and got about a 3.65% chance of being ahead after 16,000 bets and 0.58% after 32,000.

Note that this does not take into account the possibility that your bankroll will run out before you reach 16,000 (or 32,000) bets. With infinite time and bankroll, every system that has the possibility of making money "works"...and I do mean infinite; I have run simulations where it took millions of years in order for a D'Alembert system on a 50-50 bet (i.e. house edge = zero) to make a profit.



So ya saying there is a chance?????


Yes. There's also a "chance" that you will win 16,000 bets in a row. Not a very likely one, mind you, but it's greater than zero.



!!!Amazing!!!

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