Sports betting chatter
Generally I respect the oddsmakers as smarter than meQuote: ChallengedMillyFree $50 added to my $5 bet today and tomorrow for any sport that caesars follows. Anyone have a particularly juicy game or player to bet on? One high vol pick and one low vol pick?
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the thing is, for a freeroll, the math says you don't want favorites. You couldn't pick a better case of higher risk, higher reward than you get with a freeroll in gambling... more true saying than it is with picking stocks. But it means you are picking something that is more likely to lose than to win. In order to handle that emotionally, personally I have found I have to set a limit, and +200 to +300 fits me fairly well. +400 starts to beat me up.
Quote: ChallengedMillyWill do, you see anything out there for later today that matches those more extreme odds? Guess I'll do half on Celtics and half on something higher vol.
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No lean, but money line on Bucks tomorrow satisfies. If you want to go very extreme could money line Heat tonight. Good luck.
If so, I agree with getting to at least +200.
Word of caution. Make sure you pick an event that will have a decision. Don’t pick Golden Knights +1 as that might be a ‘no result’ if they lose by exactly 1. Sometimes these bonus bets disappear after such a result.
I ‘think’ I have a +EV bet on FD tonight. Doncic 30/Mavs -2.5 parlayed at +180. I think +140 would be the ‘fair’ line. That’s of course two VERY correlated results.
Final Florida tally. Only +$90. But + is +! Agree with DRich that there are numerous +EV offers.
Quote: SOOPOO
Final Florida tally. Only +$90. But + is +! Agree with DRich that there are numerous +EV offers.
Don't listen to me, I went 0-3 yesterday.
Quote: SOOPOOI’m not getting whatever Caesars offer you are. Are you saying, ‘bet $5, and we add $50 to make it a $55 bet’?
If so, I agree with getting to at least +200.
Word of caution. Make sure you pick an event that will have a decision. Don’t pick Golden Knights +1 as that might be a ‘no result’ if they lose by exactly 1. Sometimes these bonus bets disappear after such a result.
I ‘think’ I have a +EV bet on FD tonight. Doncic 30/Mavs -2.5 parlayed at +180. I think +140 would be the ‘fair’ line. That’s of course two VERY correlated results.
Final Florida tally. Only +$90. But + is +! Agree with DRich that there are numerous +EV offers.
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Easy win. Doncic 35 despite not playing second half of 4th quarter due to Mavs rout of Clippers.
Good advice by me on not taking VGK +1!
Did VERY WELL yesterday. Had VGK +1.5 last leg of parlay. Got another +EV bet on Stars to win in regulation! Both hit.
Similar in Oilers game. Looked like Oilers were going to win by two but very late goal by Kings made it one goal game.
Two open parlays needing Nuggets to win tonight. Probably will hedge a bit taking TWolves + points.
Murray and Edwards to combine for 50 at +125. DK. Should be around -105.
Unless books know something about Edwards that I don’t?
Two leftover parlays only needing Nuggets moneyline. I’ve put in a few Twolves +4.5 as hedges.
In amongst the stupidest discussion of online sports betting…. The NBA wants sportsbooks not to accept bets on players who are on ‘two way’ contracts! You know, because those are players who are ripe to fix games. As opposed to say an MLS soccer player making 1/3 of what that NBA player is making. Or even, say, A STARTING STAR WNBA player!
I watched parts of Yankee game. The home plate umpire was flat out incompetent. It favored the Yankees, but seemed more like just incompetence than game fixing. It got so he was calling anything near the plate against the Tigers a strike. It really started after he made a single bad call against the Yankees and threw Aaron Judge out of the game for the mildest of arguments.
The Yankees announcer said this …. ‘If they are going to call that low and outside pitch a strike the batters shouldn’t bother to even come to the plate!’
Today got two (what I thought were!) juicy 100% profit boosts for NBA same game parlays. Easy to make very +EV. Except I’m now limited to a $5 bet on each! Oh well…..
So have open 4 leg parlay that hits if Pacers +6.5 wins. Hedged somewhat with Knicks -5.5. SOOPOO can retire if Knicks win by 6!
Another open 4 leg parlay needs Man U to either win or draw. Hedged with Crystal Palace to either win or draw. Go TIE!
I found this site - "Pickwise" that gives free "expert" MLB picks
I've tracked them for 3 days and they've totally crushed - they're 11-3 and not all faves - yes, I know that means nothing
and yes, I'm also aware that the free picks of so called "experts" usually have little value
but hey, there could be some exceptions - they do give excellent reasoning for their picks
I'll post their picks until I'm convinced that their picks don't have any value - if that is what happens
Pickwise picks for today:
Tigers +108 over Guardians
Braves/Royals under 8.5 -105
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He acts crazy before the fight
He comes into the fight juiced on PED's
He comes into the fight overweight. Title not on the line but bets still on the line. Fighters have a huge advantage training if you are not trying to make the weight
He bets 2 million on himself as the underdog and cleans up at the casino
Well played Ryan
Quote: terapinedRyan Garcia pulled off the greatest AP move ever
He acts crazy before the fight
He comes into the fight juiced on PED's
He comes into the fight overweight. Title not on the line but bets still on the line. Fighters have a huge advantage training if you are not trying to make the weight
He bets 2 million on himself as the underdog and cleans up at the casino
Well played Ryan
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Is it still an AP move since he (a) agreed to pay Devin Haney $1.5 million for being overweight ($500k for each pound) in addition to the $600K purse sanction, the fight most likely will be ruled a "no contest" due to PEDs and he might get suspended?
Quote: GenoDRPhQuote: terapinedRyan Garcia pulled off the greatest AP move ever
He acts crazy before the fight
He comes into the fight juiced on PED's
He comes into the fight overweight. Title not on the line but bets still on the line. Fighters have a huge advantage training if you are not trying to make the weight
He bets 2 million on himself as the underdog and cleans up at the casino
Well played Ryan
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Is it still an AP move since he (a) agreed to pay Devin Haney $1.5 million for being overweight ($500k for each pound) in addition to the $600K purse sanction, the fight most likely will be ruled a "no contest" due to PEDs and he might get suspended?
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I think this was a total setup
Garcia lost his previous fight by taking a knee
Taking a knee !!!!!!!!!!
I kid you not
He said he couldn't go on due to a body shot
Too proud to pretend a KO?
Took a knee instead
I've never seen a fighter take a knee and lose staying on the knee.
This fight smells
Casino bets all resolved
He still collected from the casino supposedly
Here is the taking the knee fight
Davis was shocked he won
He couldn't belive the fight was over
Quote: lilredrooster.
I found this site - "Pickwise" that gives free "expert" MLB picks
I've tracked them for 3 days and they've totally crushed - they're 11-3 and not all faves - yes, I know that means nothing
and yes, I'm also aware that the free picks of so called "experts" usually have little value
but hey, there could be some exceptions - they do give excellent reasoning for their picks
I'll post their picks until I'm convinced that their picks don't have any value - if that is what happens
Pickwise picks for today:
Tigers +108 over Guardians
Brewers/Royals under 8.5 -105
Pickwise has a lot more picks for today:______________I'm sure they did on the previous 3 days that I tracked them but I only looked at it in the early a.m. so that's all I saw
Diamondbacks - 126 over Reds
BlueJay/Phillies under 8 -108
Astros even money over Yankees
Astros/Yankees under 8 even money
Red Sox/Braves under 8.5 -102
Padres/Cubs under 9 -122
Giants/Rockies under 10.5 -122
Dodgers -1.5 -154 over Marlins
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If the fight is declared a no contest due to the drug test, does the sportsbook get their payouts back, or do they just take their lumps and move on?
Quote: GenoDRPhTaking a knee is probably the prefered way of surrendering during a fight. There have been instances where a fighter wishes to surrender and he walks backwards with his hands up and gets clobbered because he's still on his feet and the ref hadn't stopped the fight.
If the fight is declared a no contest due to the drug test, does the sportsbook get their payouts back, or do they just take their lumps and move on?
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99% sure books consider the game over and do not count later reversals. If anyone knows of an exception I’d be interested to hear the details.
Doncic/SGA to each score 25 at even money. Must be +EV. Can’t even find a market on Doncic under 24.5. And SGA o/u is around 30.
Pickwise went 7-4 yesterday
I have now tracked them going 18-7 with their MLB picks
I'm not going to figure out exactly what the r.o.i. is but the odds they get averages out to be about -125 so they are way, way, ahead since I've been tracking
they don't pick extreme faves such as -180 - at least not that I've seen so far
I indicated I was going to post their picks but I changed my mind - too much work - anybody who wants to can follow them at the link
they probably have all their games up around 11:00
I will track them and report after I have tracked 100 of their picks
https://www.pickswise.com/mlb/picks/
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that you get the bonus whether you win or lose the initial ... I just can't say no, even if my small bankroll had been wiped out
now I am back to worrying about how and when they report to the IRS
quite interesting and eye opening and even humorous
I just looked thru the records for the last 6 months for all of the touts who sell picks on the linked site
of the 8 who are named only 2 had won - and both of them had only won a tiny % - less than 1% of their total action
the other 6 all lost and most of them got creamed
but they all do have fabulous resumes
is it really that hard to get an edge betting sports (without bonuses, boosts and free play)___________?
I think the answer is probably yes
https://www.oskeimsportspicks.com/handicappers/rocky-atkinson/
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As far as the 8 touts respective records, it’s gotta be real difficult to beat a ‘regular’ -110 line consistently. For all my chatter I doubt I’d do better than maybe 50.5%. Which loses money. I probably can get average odds down to -107 or so by looking at multiple sites. But I have no illusions that I’d be a winner.
Last years NBA Champs on the ropes
Is it all over after 2 beat downs
Will they show up or go down 3 to 0
How the hell do I know
No bets lol
But I will be watching
Leaning towards an embarrassing beat down tonight
Problems:Quote: SOOPOOPretty sure no IRS reporting unless to hit a very long shot that generated a W-2 G. Also would not be surprised if that changes.
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t&cs don't clarify the circumstances under which they might issue a W2G
as far as a 1099, BetMGM says you might get a "1099-Misc [which] may be issued by Us by January 31 following the year of the receipt of a prize consisting of cash or merchandise for which a 12 month accumulated value of six hundred US dollars" [see below]That word 'accumulated' has really bothered me, and they might feel free to report it without subtracting losses, who knows? Somewhere upthread Mental says that covers special prizes only, not wins from betting.
I know you have had no problem. I worry that Virginia may be different.
OK I should probably just keep plunging ahead. If I pay taxes, I pay taxes.
Quote: odiousgambit[
as far as a 1099, BetMGM says you might get a "1099-Misc [which] may be issued by Us by January 31 following the year of the receipt of a prize consisting of cash or merchandise for which a 12 month accumulated value of six hundred US dollars" [see below]That word 'accumulated' has really bothered me, and they might feel free to report it without subtracting losses, who knows?
That is an IRS rule to report 1099's if the accumulated total for a year is over $600. Generally it is not applied to bets but to winnings of promotions. In the casino business we pretty much went away from giving small cash prizes for promos because we would have to track them all year for all patrons and report if they went over $600 cumulative,. that is when we started offering free play instead of cash because that did not apply to 1099's,
Quote: TaxrBuxIs anyone having success with the Draft Kings early win promo? It seems like betting a road dog facing a pitcher who has a tendency to give up runs early and then settle down would be ideal, but that would require knowledge or research. I prefer purely mechanical +EV plays.
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I’ve just been taking biggest road underdog. Pretty sure it is mildly +EV. I’m limited to $10 bet so I’m not going to do any actual thinking to make a selection!
I’m certainly up some $$ since I started doing it.
FLA 4-2 +350
FLA 4-3 +750
BOS 4-3 +1100
for a -57% vig.
Bruins are +180 to win game 6 on Draft Kings.
I put $100 on FLA 4-2 and $160 on the Bruins game 6, to lock in $188 in profit. Am I missing something here? Will MGM say this is a mistake? Draft Kings has similar lines on the series exact result, so maybe I am missing something.
Quote: TaxrBuxBetMGM has the Bruins-Panthers futures at:
FLA 4-2 +350
FLA 4-3 +750
BOS 4-3 +1100
for a -57% vig.
Bruins are +180 to win game 6 on Draft Kings.
I put $100 on FLA 4-2 and $160 on the Bruins game 6, to lock in $188 in profit. Am I missing something here? Will MGM say this is a mistake? Draft Kings has similar lines on the series exact result, so maybe I am missing something.
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the Panthers are up 3-1 in the series
covers.com has them at -205 to win game 5 tomorrow which would win them the series going 4-1
what happens to your bets if FLA wins game 5 and there is no sixth game___________?
if that happens your bet on FLA 4-2 to win the series would lose
not sure about your bet on the Bruins to win game 6 if there is no game 6
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Quote: lilredrooster
the Panthers are up 3-1 in the series
has them at -205 to win game 5 tomorrow which would win them the series going 4-1
what happens to your bets if FLA wins game 5 and there is no sixth game___________?
if that happens your bet on FLA 4-2 to win the series would lose
not sure about your bet on the Bruins to win game 6 if there is no game 6
.
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Yep, lol, going to cancel those bets. The Bruins bet is on Tuesday's game, which is actually game 5. So I guess 4-1 series result is built into the Panthers odds on game 5, which is -210, for a vig of 10%, which makes a lot more sense. Thanks!
Quote: TaxrBuxQuote: lilredrooster
the Panthers are up 3-1 in the series
has them at -205 to win game 5 tomorrow which would win them the series going 4-1
what happens to your bets if FLA wins game 5 and there is no sixth game___________?
if that happens your bet on FLA 4-2 to win the series would lose
not sure about your bet on the Bruins to win game 6 if there is no game 6
.
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Yep, lol, going to cancel those bets. The Bruins bet is on Tuesday's game, which is actually game 5. So I guess 4-1 series result is built into the Panthers odds on game 5, which is -210, for a vig of 10%, which makes a lot more sense. Thanks!
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How are you able to ‘cancel’ a bet?
The ‘early cash out’ feature takes 10% or so right away.
My best bet today is Cubs/ Under 8 parlay. Pitcher Iminaga has been unbelievable.
I got lucky in that I got a bunch of bets on Celtics before Cavs had Mitchell scratched. Celts up 3 But hard for me to see them not winning by double digits.
earlier I posted that I would track 100 games of Pickswise - I've now tracked 76 picks - I've seen enough
they went 40-36 almost always picking the fave at odds averaging about -125
they're well down
conclusion - their picks have no value______________surprise, surprise, surprise
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Quote: SOOPOOQuote: TaxrBuxQuote: lilredrooster
the Panthers are up 3-1 in the series
has them at -205 to win game 5 tomorrow which would win them the series going 4-1
what happens to your bets if FLA wins game 5 and there is no sixth game___________?
if that happens your bet on FLA 4-2 to win the series would lose
not sure about your bet on the Bruins to win game 6 if there is no game 6
.
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Yep, lol, going to cancel those bets. The Bruins bet is on Tuesday's game, which is actually game 5. So I guess 4-1 series result is built into the Panthers odds on game 5, which is -210, for a vig of 10%, which makes a lot more sense. Thanks!
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How are you able to ‘cancel’ a bet?
The ‘early cash out’ feature takes 10% or so right away.
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Yep, I guess I should say "salvage what I can from this mistake." I did cash out the Bruins bet for -$16. I was unable to cash out the series bet on BetMGM, so I bet $165 on Florida for -$165. If that had won, the net would have been -$41. Now I have $195 on Boston +130 in the real game 6, and still have the $100 on Panthers 4-2 series exact outcome +350, so the overall outcome will be -$26-28. I don't like risking money on the outcome of games (props, etc.) so this salvage is better for me than sweating out actual results. I track it as an error, and move on.
Yesterday was dismal and this afternoons baseball picks have continued my ‘dismality’.
TaxR, when I make a mistake like you did, I bite my lip and see what happens. Locking in a small loss ‘seems’ wrong, while I have no problem hedging to guarantee a small win.
Since I have no bankroll worries I shouldn’t hedge….
