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kmccorm1
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February 18th, 2023 at 6:09:55 PM permalink
My first post on this site - hope I'm in the right spot. About 5 years ago I was on the wrong side of an incredible improbability at the craps table: I lost 45 come bets in a row (earlier this year I lost 24; it brought back bad memories). I've always wondered what the odds were of this happening. Anybody know how to calculate this?
ChumpChange
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February 18th, 2023 at 6:13:03 PM permalink
No, but betting the DC instead would have made my day.
SOOPOO
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February 18th, 2023 at 6:22:15 PM permalink
Quote: kmccorm1

My first post on this site - hope I'm in the right spot. About 5 years ago I was on the wrong side of an incredible improbability at the craps table: I lost 45 come bets in a row (earlier this year I lost 24; it brought back bad memories). I've always wondered what the odds were of this happening. Anybody know how to calculate this?
link to original post



Figure out the odds of losing 1 come bet. It’s around 49%. Then raise that number to the 45th power.
Starting a new series you will lose 45 in a row around 1 in 40 trillion tries. That’s 1 in 40,000,000,000,000.

The more likely occurrence was that you ‘mis remembered’ and lost a bunch, but not 45 in a row.

My worst similar losing streak was 16.

What kind of bankroll do you play with that you can withstand a 45 come losing streak? If the comes are losing a bunch must have also been pass line losses, right?
MDawg
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February 18th, 2023 at 6:46:54 PM permalink
Where else but on a gambling forum would we run into such improbable but not impossible occurrences, is what some people don't want to accept.

Something improbable happens, which by the odds of probability must happen, somewhere, sometime, and then it doesn't take much for the person who experienced that improbable event to find his way to a well known gambling site to speak of it.

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/big-wins/19626-went-for-it/

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/blackjack/36540-did-shoeless-joe-parlay-400-into-1-6-million-playing-blackjack/

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/big-wins/36485-60-winning-hands-in-a-row/#post825213

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/craps/36532-18yos-in-a-row-revisited/
I tell you it’s wonderful to be here, man. I don’t give a damn who wins or loses. It’s just wonderful to be here with you people. https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
SOOPOO
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February 18th, 2023 at 7:21:29 PM permalink
Quote: MDawg

Where else but on a gambling forum would we run into such improbable but not impossible occurrences, is what some people don't want to accept.

Something improbable happens, which by the odds of probability must happen, somewhere, sometime, and then it doesn't take much for the person who experienced that improbable event to find his way to a well known gambling site to speak of it.

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/big-wins/19626-went-for-it/

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/blackjack/36540-did-shoeless-joe-parlay-400-into-1-6-million-playing-blackjack/

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/big-wins/36485-60-winning-hands-in-a-row/#post825213

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/craps/36532-18yos-in-a-row-revisited/
link to original post



So let me get this straight. An anonymous poster on an Internet forum posts about a streak that has a likelihood of 1 in 40,000,000,000,000 and you think it just makes sense to believe him rather than be skeptical?

I’m interested in his answer to my bankroll question.

I think you remember your silly blackjack winning streak claim. Didn’t you walk it back after the math was presented to you?
Ace2
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February 18th, 2023 at 7:29:31 PM permalink
When someone claims a one-in-trillions event, you can reply “BS” with > 99.9999999999% confidence
It’s all about making that GTA
ChumpChange
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February 18th, 2023 at 9:25:08 PM permalink
All you need is to place 4 come bet numbers and 7-out eleven times in a row. I'm sure it's easy, for those with Victor Luck.
odiousgambit
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February 19th, 2023 at 2:41:05 AM permalink
Quote: Ace2

When someone claims a one-in-trillions event, you can reply “BS” with > 99.9999999999% confidence
link to original post

the perspective I like is:

Let's say the reputation of this poster, if we knew about it, was impeccable .

If there is only one chance in a million then that this person is wrong about '45 in a row', that is one chance in 10^6 ... if it actually happened, it was one chance in 10^13

so we can say that it is more likely that he is simply mistaken by 7 orders of magnitude
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
Mental
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February 19th, 2023 at 5:31:44 AM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

Quote: Ace2

When someone claims a one-in-trillions event, you can reply “BS” with > 99.9999999999% confidence
link to original post

the perspective I like is:

Let's say the reputation of this poster, if we knew about it, was impeccable .

If there is only one chance in a million then that this person is wrong about '45 in a row', that is one chance in 10^6 ... if it actually happened, it was one chance in 10^13

so we can say that it is more likely that he is simply mistaken by 7 orders of magnitude
link to original post

I agree with OG. This is just a simple application of Bayesian statistics or Bayesian inference.
This forum is more enjoyable after I learned how to use the 'Block this user' button.
billryan
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February 19th, 2023 at 7:44:38 AM permalink
As sure as you stand there, you will end up with an earful of cider.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
ThatDonGuy
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February 19th, 2023 at 7:48:45 AM permalink
Quote: ChumpChange

All you need is to place 4 come bet numbers and 7-out eleven times in a row. I'm sure it's easy, for those with Victor Luck.
link to original post


I was not aware that placing a number counted as a "come bet."

Even if, somehow, the OP placed some combination of the 4 and 10 45 times and lost each one, that's (2/3)^45, or about 1 in 84 million.

Placing the 4, 5, 9, and 10 simultaneously 11 times and losing all 11 is (3/10)^11, or about 1 in 169,351, although that's only 44 losses.
UP84
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February 19th, 2023 at 9:19:49 AM permalink
Quote: Ace2

When someone claims a one-in-trillions event, you can reply “BS” with > 99.9999999999% confidence
link to original post

True, but until we hear further from the poster, it's possible he's looking for information on the probability of this event in order to gauge his own belief in the memory.
100xOdds
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February 19th, 2023 at 9:38:27 AM permalink
Quote: kmccorm1

My first post on this site - hope I'm in the right spot. About 5 years ago I was on the wrong side of an incredible improbability at the craps table: I lost 45 come bets in a row (earlier this year I lost 24; it brought back bad memories). I've always wondered what the odds were of this happening. Anybody know how to calculate this?
link to original post

a new user can start threads now?
dont need to wait till 10 posts anymore?

when did that change?
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice). Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
100xOdds
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February 19th, 2023 at 9:39:17 AM permalink
Quote: UP84

Quote: Ace2

When someone claims a one-in-trillions event, you can reply “BS” with > 99.9999999999% confidence
link to original post

True, but until we hear further from the poster, it's possible he's looking for information on the probability of this event in order to gauge his own belief in the memory.
link to original post

or a banned member trolling, again
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice). Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
SOOPOO
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February 19th, 2023 at 9:40:23 AM permalink
Quote: kmccorm1

My first post on this site - hope I'm in the right spot. About 5 years ago I was on the wrong side of an incredible improbability at the craps table: I lost 45 come bets in a row (earlier this year I lost 24; it brought back bad memories). I've always wondered what the odds were of this happening. Anybody know how to calculate this?
link to original post



I reposted the original post. After thinking about this a little more, I believe (perhaps) he meant ‘come out bets’, and not ‘come bets’. My analysis, and those of the others who responded, answered as if it was 45 ‘come out’ bets.

If you think about it, if you are betting what is often referred to as ‘continual come’ bets, it would even be exponentially MORE difficult to lose 45 in a row. If your first come bet sets a point, and you place a new come bet, one of them wins on a seven while the other would win in the original point.

By the way, the other bad streak is a one in 16 million event.
MrV
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February 19th, 2023 at 10:41:15 AM permalink
If there is an afterlife, I suspect Alan is looking down (hopefully not up) and smiling...
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gordonm888
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February 19th, 2023 at 12:30:45 PM permalink
Quote: Ace2

When someone claims a one-in-trillions event, you can reply “BS” with > 99.9999999999% confidence
link to original post



I don't agree at all. Really. You act as if the entire world consists of one trial of dice rolls at craps.

When something happens say, 100,000 times a day, you should expect to hear about a 1/100,000 occurrence on a daily basis.

While I agree that 1 in 40 trillion sounds impossible to me, I remind you that there are >7 billion people in the world and that thousands of things (on average) happen every day to each of those 4 billion people. So, the world is big enough and diverse enough to accommodate certain kinds of extremely rare occurences.
So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.
Ace2
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February 19th, 2023 at 1:44:05 PM permalink
Quote: gordonm888

Quote: Ace2

When someone claims a one-in-trillions event, you can reply “BS” with > 99.9999999999% confidence
link to original post



I don't agree at all. Really. You act as if the entire world consists of one trial of dice rolls at craps.

When something happens say, 100,000 times a day, you should expect to hear about a 1/100,000 occurrence on a daily basis.

While I agree that 1 in 40 trillion sounds impossible to me, I remind you that there are >7 billion people in the world and that thousands of things (on average) happen every day to each of those 4 billion people. So, the world is big enough and diverse enough to accommodate certain kinds of extremely rare occurences.
link to original post

IF a decent percentage of those 7 billion people were craps players and IF a decent percentage of those players were members of this site, then you’d have a point.

But they aren’t and you don’t

For comparison purposes, the odds of picking a perfect March Madness bracket (adjusted for gimmies like 16 seeds vs 1 seeds) is roughly as probable as the 45 consecutive come bet losses. No one has ever picked a perfect bracket (millions try ever year) and very large prizes are offered (but never won). Now, if someone on a forum of a few hundred (?) people claimed they picked a perfect bracket, what’s the probability they are lying?
100.000000%. 9s start appearing a few more digits out
Last edited by: Ace2 on Feb 19, 2023
It’s all about making that GTA
unJon
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February 19th, 2023 at 2:47:30 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: kmccorm1

My first post on this site - hope I'm in the right spot. About 5 years ago I was on the wrong side of an incredible improbability at the craps table: I lost 45 come bets in a row (earlier this year I lost 24; it brought back bad memories). I've always wondered what the odds were of this happening. Anybody know how to calculate this?
link to original post



I reposted the original post. After thinking about this a little more, I believe (perhaps) he meant ‘come out bets’, and not ‘come bets’. My analysis, and those of the others who responded, answered as if it was 45 ‘come out’ bets.

If you think about it, if you are betting what is often referred to as ‘continual come’ bets, it would even be exponentially MORE difficult to lose 45 in a row. If your first come bet sets a point, and you place a new come bet, one of them wins on a seven while the other would win in the original point.

By the way, the other bad streak is a one in 16 million event.
link to original post



This is incorrect. There’s positive correlation in losing continuous come bets because they all lose on a 7. It would be more likely to lose 45 come bets in a row continuously coming than to lose 45 come out bets in a row.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
ChumpChange
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February 19th, 2023 at 2:58:54 PM permalink
I think it's easier to be down 25 PL bets in a session than to be up 15 PL bets, but I haven't figured out them math, I just know I'm not winning.
AxelWolf
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February 19th, 2023 at 3:16:45 PM permalink
Quote: Ace2

Quote: gordonm888

Quote: Ace2

When someone claims a one-in-trillions event, you can reply “BS” with > 99.9999999999% confidence
link to original post



I don't agree at all. Really. You act as if the entire world consists of one trial of dice rolls at craps.

When something happens say, 100,000 times a day, you should expect to hear about a 1/100,000 occurrence on a daily basis.

While I agree that 1 in 40 trillion sounds impossible to me, I remind you that there are >7 billion people in the world and that thousands of things (on average) happen every day to each of those 4 billion people. So, the world is big enough and diverse enough to accommodate certain kinds of extremely rare occurences.
link to original post

IF a decent percentage of those 7 billion people were craps players and IF a decent percentage of those players were members of this site, then you’d have a point.

But they aren’t and you don’t

For comparison purposes, the odds of picking a perfect March Madness bracket (adjusted for gimmies like 16 seeds vs 1 seeds) is roughly as probable as the 45 consecutive come bet losses. No one has ever picked a perfect bracket (millions try ever year) and very large prizes are offered (but never won). Now, if someone on a forum of a few hundred (?) people claimed they picked a perfect bracket, what’s the probability they are lying?
100.000000%. 9s start appearing a few more digits out
link to original post

This post should be liked 7 billion times. Good explanation, and example.

What are the odds we are lucky enough to have so many people who have had so many extraordinary gambling events happen to them? To be fair, this is the place people come to discuss such things.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
charliepatrick
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February 19th, 2023 at 3:21:55 PM permalink
If I'm playing repeated Come Bets (certainly if I'm doing DC) I usually would establish 3 points and then hope. Assuming that you were to ignore all intermediate 2 3 11 12's, since you might only remember gathering $5 or having to pay out $5 and similarly if there was a 7-out you'd win the come so they'd take some bets and pay you the come, then the chances of establishing three points and then 7-out are somewhere in the region of 9%. Thus 15 of these aren't that improbable.
(I accept this makes some horrendous assumptions, but it was just a quick estimate if there had been several simultaneous Come bets rather than waiting for the previous one to lose.)
Dieter
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February 19th, 2023 at 4:15:29 PM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

Quote: Ace2

Quote: gordonm888

Quote: Ace2

When someone claims a one-in-trillions event, you can reply “BS” with > 99.9999999999% confidence
link to original post



I don't agree at all. Really. You act as if the entire world consists of one trial of dice rolls at craps.

When something happens say, 100,000 times a day, you should expect to hear about a 1/100,000 occurrence on a daily basis.

While I agree that 1 in 40 trillion sounds impossible to me, I remind you that there are >7 billion people in the world and that thousands of things (on average) happen every day to each of those 4 billion people. So, the world is big enough and diverse enough to accommodate certain kinds of extremely rare occurences.
link to original post

IF a decent percentage of those 7 billion people were craps players and IF a decent percentage of those players were members of this site, then you’d have a point.

But they aren’t and you don’t

For comparison purposes, the odds of picking a perfect March Madness bracket (adjusted for gimmies like 16 seeds vs 1 seeds) is roughly as probable as the 45 consecutive come bet losses. No one has ever picked a perfect bracket (millions try ever year) and very large prizes are offered (but never won). Now, if someone on a forum of a few hundred (?) people claimed they picked a perfect bracket, what’s the probability they are lying?
100.000000%. 9s start appearing a few more digits out
link to original post

This post should be liked 7 billion times. Good explanation, and example.

What are the odds we are lucky enough to have so many people who have had so many extraordinary gambling events happen to them? To be fair, this is the place people come to discuss such things.
link to original post



3000 likes ought to be usefully indicative.
May the cards fall in your favor.
SOOPOO
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February 19th, 2023 at 6:34:29 PM permalink
Quote: unJon

Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: kmccorm1

My first post on this site - hope I'm in the right spot. About 5 years ago I was on the wrong side of an incredible improbability at the craps table: I lost 45 come bets in a row (earlier this year I lost 24; it brought back bad memories). I've always wondered what the odds were of this happening. Anybody know how to calculate this?
link to original post



I reposted the original post. After thinking about this a little more, I believe (perhaps) he meant ‘come out bets’, and not ‘come bets’. My analysis, and those of the others who responded, answered as if it was 45 ‘come out’ bets.

If you think about it, if you are betting what is often referred to as ‘continual come’ bets, it would even be exponentially MORE difficult to lose 45 in a row. If your first come bet sets a point, and you place a new come bet, one of them wins on a seven while the other would win in the original point.

By the way, the other bad streak is a one in 16 million event.
link to original post



This is incorrect. There’s positive correlation in losing continuous come bets because they all lose on a 7. It would be more likely to lose 45 come bets in a row continuously coming than to lose 45 come out bets in a row.
link to original post

. You misinterpreted my post. The ‘other bad streak’ was his other bad streak of 24 losses in a row. I agree that the 45 losses in a row on the continuous come is exponentially less likely that 45 come out bet losses in a row.
gordonm888
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February 19th, 2023 at 9:14:04 PM permalink
Quote: Ace2

Quote: gordonm888

Quote: Ace2

When someone claims a one-in-trillions event, you can reply “BS” with > 99.9999999999% confidence
link to original post



I don't agree at all. Really. You act as if the entire world consists of one trial of dice rolls at craps.

When something happens say, 100,000 times a day, you should expect to hear about a 1/100,000 occurrence on a daily basis.

While I agree that 1 in 40 trillion sounds impossible to me, I remind you that there are >7 billion people in the world and that thousands of things (on average) happen every day to each of those 4 billion people. So, the world is big enough and diverse enough to accommodate certain kinds of extremely rare occurences.
link to original post

IF a decent percentage of those 7 billion people were craps players and IF a decent percentage of those players were members of this site, then you’d have a point.

But they aren’t and you don’t

For comparison purposes, the odds of picking a perfect March Madness bracket (adjusted for gimmies like 16 seeds vs 1 seeds) is roughly as probable as the 45 consecutive come bet losses. No one has ever picked a perfect bracket (millions try ever year) and very large prizes are offered (but never won). Now, if someone on a forum of a few hundred (?) people claimed they picked a perfect bracket, what’s the probability they are lying?
100.000000%. 9s start appearing a few more digits out
link to original post



But you are the one that said "When someone claims a one-in-trillions event, you can reply “BS” with > 99.9999999999% confidence" And that is simply mathematically wrong, because that's the confidence you would have if they said they will do it on the next set of dice rolls, not that someone in a world of 7 billion people claims that they did something after forty years of playing.

So, what you said is wrong. It's either a misapplication of statistics or you deserve the Nobel Prize for discovering an entirely new kind of mathematics.

And what I said and am saying again is that statistically unlikely events (not necessarily dice rolls) will indeed be truthfully reported to have occurred during your lifetime because you live in a world filled with >7 Billion people who are doing thousands of things a day (not rolling dice, but thousands of diverse things) for many thousands of days. And I stand by that statement. And I preceded that by saying that I also did not believe that a claim with a frequency of 1 in 40 trillion was likely to be true.
So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.
Romes
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February 19th, 2023 at 10:50:22 PM permalink
Napkin math (50/50) would indicate .5^45 = .00000000000002, or ~ 1 in 50 trillion. If you're not familiar with math there's only 2 outcomes to this:

1) you're lying and it's not true.
2) you were 100% cheated.

Hope you're being honest, but I'm gonna go w/ Option #1.
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
OnceDear
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February 20th, 2023 at 6:03:35 AM permalink
Inconceivable; impossible to imagine or think of

Yet here we have it. A place where we defy the impossible.

It's one thing. For the rules to insist that we are polite in expressing disbelief. For Gordon to roll out the 'but improbable things happen' argument is another thing all together.
Is it conceivable that the OP misremembers? Is it conceivable that he's being mischievous? Is it conceivable that someone other than the OP will get suspended soon, or that enemies of this from will fall about laughing.

The event portrayed in the OP did not happen.
The salient question now is Why was the post really made?
Psalm 25:16 Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted. Proverbs 18:2 A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
gordonm888
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February 20th, 2023 at 7:01:41 AM permalink
Quote: Romes

Napkin math (50/50) would indicate .5^45 = .00000000000002, or ~ 1 in 50 trillion. If you're not familiar with math there's only 2 outcomes to this:

1) you're lying and it's not true.
2) you were 100% cheated.

Hope you're being honest, but I'm gonna go w/ Option #1.
link to original post



3) Your memory is inaccurate. One might cite conflicting witness accounts of car accidents and personal experiences with aging human beings. This happens. Cognitive confusion or cognitive decline in a country where 17% of all people are over the age of 65.

The chance of somebody reporting something improbable in any given period of time may be approaching 17%. No reason to automatically react with "you're lying" or with a tone of angry contempt like OD does.
So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.
odiousgambit
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February 20th, 2023 at 7:45:29 AM permalink
the OP may be trying to say he was cheated. In fact if he could convince me he was taking the data properly, with clipboard in hand, being cheated ranks far higher in likelihood than random outcome. Pretty low chance at a real casino, but what about online, for instance?
PS I see he says 'at a Craps table' in the OP
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
Ace2
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February 20th, 2023 at 8:58:20 AM permalink
Quote: gordonm888


So, what you said is wrong. It's either a misapplication of statistics or you deserve the Nobel Prize for discovering an entirely new kind of mathematics.

You win the Nobel Stubbornness Prize and also a gold medal for having the hardest head. Actually you win two consecutive Nobel Prizes…let’s see if you can win 45 consecutively
It’s all about making that GTA
ChumpChange
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February 20th, 2023 at 1:10:22 PM permalink
Didn't the Wizard make a chart recently about winning and losing on the Dos and Don'ts? It might have gone to winning or losing dozens of times either way.

Maybe it was the 3X, 4X, 5X odds chart of Do's and Don'ts and it ran up to 300+ units being won or lost. It started with 3 Point Dollys and Mollys and might have encompassed continuous Comes and Don't Comes.
Last edited by: ChumpChange on Feb 20, 2023
TigerWu
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February 20th, 2023 at 1:40:50 PM permalink
The odds of one person losing 45 come bets in a row and then less than five years later that same person losing 24 come bets in a row has to be so astronomical as to be functionally impossible. Like something that would never happen before the heat death of the universe.
vegas
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February 20th, 2023 at 1:48:59 PM permalink
Quote: OnceDear

Inconceivable; impossible to imagine or think of

Yet here we have it. A place where we defy the impossible.

It's one thing. For the rules to insist that we are polite in expressing disbelief. For Gordon to roll out the 'but improbable things happen' argument is another thing all together.
Is it conceivable that the OP misremembers? Is it conceivable that he's being mischievous? Is it conceivable that someone other than the OP will get suspended soon, or that enemies of this from will fall about laughing.

The event portrayed in the OP did not happen.
The salient question now is Why was the post really made?
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You asked the right question. Why was this post made? I somehow picture the person who made this post sitting back with someone else FROM this forum having a big laugh. Just waiting to see where it goes and like you said seeing who gets banned.

Also notice the person who made this post has not returned. Trolls will troll.
50-50-90 Rule: Anytime you have a 50-50 chance of getting something right, there is a 90% probability you'll get it wrong
OnceDear
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February 20th, 2023 at 1:51:46 PM permalink
The odds of one person REPORTING losing 45 come bets in a row and then less than five years later that same person REPORTING losing 24 come bets in a row has to be so likely as to be a functional certainty.
Psalm 25:16 Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted. Proverbs 18:2 A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
OnceDear
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February 20th, 2023 at 2:01:30 PM permalink
Quote: vegas

Quote: OnceDear

Inconceivable; impossible to imagine or think of
The event portrayed in the OP did not happen.
The salient question now is Why was the post really made?
link to original post


Also notice the person who made this post has not returned. Trolls will troll.
link to original post


I guess the next salient question is 'will Vegas get suspended for strongly implying that the OP was a troll?'
Psalm 25:16 Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted. Proverbs 18:2 A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
kmccorm1
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February 21st, 2023 at 11:34:49 AM permalink
Wow - so many responses! Let me first apoogize for not being more specific here. It's not quite the way I wrote it.

When I keep track of my come bets I disregard anything that's resolved on a come-out roll, and I also disregard the wins/losses on the come line. I'm only concerned with come bets AFTER A POINT IS ESTALBLISHED AND I HAVE ODDS ON THEM, and I LOSE BOTH MY BASE BET AND MY ODDS. So this bad run of 45 straight (I'm 100% sure it was at least 43, 99% sure it was at least 44, and pretty sure it was 45) losses was AFTER my come bet was on a number and with odds (I believe this was at 4 different tables over a 2-day span). My rudimentary math skills tell me there's a 60% chance (on average) of losing each come bet after the point is established. So while this is far from 44T - 1, it still seems like the odds are astronomical, and I've always wondered what the odds were of this happening, or if anyone, anywhere has had a smiliar experience. (NOTE: I typically only bet $10 come, with 2x odds, so while I lost more/faster than I wanted to, I lived to lose another day :) ).

As for my other 2 'worst' outings . . .

About 7 years ago I endured 9 PSO's in a row. I believe that's about 1.8M - 1? Anybody else done worse than this?

And as mentioned earlier, I also endured 24 straight pass line losses last year. DISCLAIMER: I track these the same way I track losses on the come line, i.e. I disregard the come-out roll. This is 24 straight 'points' that ended with a 7, as opposed to the point being made. It's not 44, but it's still an awful lot!
ChumpChange
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February 21st, 2023 at 11:48:43 AM permalink
Thank you for describing the outer limits of your incredible bad luck. Bettors beware.
Now were you betting 1 come bet, 2 come bets, 3 come bets, 4 come bets, or 5 come bets per shooter's 7-out? I mean I would do a 3 point Molly where there's only 2 come bets then when a come with odds bet wins, split the next bet amongst 2 place bets on the inside numbers. It may lower my HA by having come bets to start with instead of going straight to place bets. If I have a $20 come with $40 odds, I'd split the next bet as $30 on the 6 & 8 when the come with odds bet wins, and if the other come with odds bet wins, split $30 on the 5 & 9, (or 4 or 10 if any of those inside numbers is already the PL point). But waiting for a come with odds bet to win can be a long wait if bad luck rules, and shooters can only throw very short rolls. Hot shooters are rare compared to cold shooters. Only 1/6 of shooters make it past making 2 PL points. So having a full table making extremely bad short rolls is not out of the question, and they might be tourists.
kmccorm1
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February 21st, 2023 at 12:35:46 PM permalink
I typically never have more than 2 come bets at a time, although about 2 years ago I gave up on come bets almost entirely (because I seemed to do so horribly bad with them) and now I start every roll with a pass line bet, and 6 & 8, and go up as the returns come in. My losses have decreased dramatically and they rate me much higher than they used to because most of my money was in odds before, which don't count for comps. And for me, it's more about comps (free rooms, food, events, golf, etc.) than anything else. Craps is fun, but it's the perks that make it all worth while :)
Ace2
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February 21st, 2023 at 12:54:34 PM permalink
Last night I lost 168 roulette bets in a row. I always bet on black (double zero table)

I realize this is unlikely but I’ve been wondering what the probability is ? Does anyone know how to calculate it?
It’s all about making that GTA
SOOPOO
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February 21st, 2023 at 1:05:48 PM permalink
Quote: kmccorm1

Wow - so many responses! Let me first apoogize for not being more specific here. It's not quite the way I wrote it.

When I keep track of my come bets I disregard anything that's resolved on a come-out roll, and I also disregard the wins/losses on the come line. I'm only concerned with come bets AFTER A POINT IS ESTALBLISHED AND I HAVE ODDS ON THEM, and I LOSE BOTH MY BASE BET AND MY ODDS. So this bad run of 45 straight (I'm 100% sure it was at least 43, 99% sure it was at least 44, and pretty sure it was 45) losses was AFTER my come bet was on a number and with odds (I believe this was at 4 different tables over a 2-day span). My rudimentary math skills tell me there's a 60% chance (on average) of losing each come bet after the point is established. So while this is far from 44T - 1, it still seems like the odds are astronomical, and I've always wondered what the odds were of this happening, or if anyone, anywhere has had a smiliar experience. (NOTE: I typically only bet $10 come, with 2x odds, so while I lost more/faster than I wanted to, I lived to lose another day :) ).

As for my other 2 'worst' outings . . .

About 7 years ago I endured 9 PSO's in a row. I believe that's about 1.8M - 1? Anybody else done worse than this?

And as mentioned earlier, I also endured 24 straight pass line losses last year. DISCLAIMER: I track these the same way I track losses on the come line, i.e. I disregard the come-out roll. This is 24 straight 'points' that ended with a 7, as opposed to the point being made. It's not 44, but it's still an awful lot!
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I think your chance of losing 45 established points in a row is around 1 in 10 billion. Ballpark. I think I’d still use ‘astronomical’, but not totally unbelievable. I don’t understand the 43,44, or 45 dilemma? We’re you or were you not counting? You said it was over 4 sessions? Which of the sessions did you have problems counting up to 10 or so? I gotta tell you, on my 16 game losing streak, if it continued, there was NO WAY I would miscount the streaks continuation.

I’m trying to believe you but you are making it hard!
ChumpChange
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February 21st, 2023 at 1:14:55 PM permalink
If I was betting Don'ts and lost count after 60 rolls on one shooter....
Ace2
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February 21st, 2023 at 1:59:14 PM permalink
Quote: kmccorm1

My rudimentary math skills tell me there's a 60% chance (on average) of losing each come bet after the point is established.]

Close enough to 98/165

Using either will show that you’re about 30 times more likely to win the next Powerball jackpot than see 45 consecutive seven-outs. Meaning it didn’t happen.
It’s all about making that GTA
UP84
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February 21st, 2023 at 2:12:28 PM permalink
Quote: gordonm888

Quote: Ace2

Quote: gordonm888

Quote: Ace2

When someone claims a one-in-trillions event, you can reply “BS” with > 99.9999999999% confidence
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I don't agree at all. Really. You act as if the entire world consists of one trial of dice rolls at craps.

When something happens say, 100,000 times a day, you should expect to hear about a 1/100,000 occurrence on a daily basis.

While I agree that 1 in 40 trillion sounds impossible to me, I remind you that there are >7 billion people in the world and that thousands of things (on average) happen every day to each of those 4 billion people. So, the world is big enough and diverse enough to accommodate certain kinds of extremely rare occurences.
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IF a decent percentage of those 7 billion people were craps players and IF a decent percentage of those players were members of this site, then you’d have a point.

But they aren’t and you don’t

For comparison purposes, the odds of picking a perfect March Madness bracket (adjusted for gimmies like 16 seeds vs 1 seeds) is roughly as probable as the 45 consecutive come bet losses. No one has ever picked a perfect bracket (millions try ever year) and very large prizes are offered (but never won). Now, if someone on a forum of a few hundred (?) people claimed they picked a perfect bracket, what’s the probability they are lying?
100.000000%. 9s start appearing a few more digits out
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But you are the one that said "When someone claims a one-in-trillions event, you can reply “BS” with > 99.9999999999% confidence" And that is simply mathematically wrong, because that's the confidence you would have if they said they will do it on the next set of dice rolls, not that someone in a world of 7 billion people claims that they did something after forty years of playing.

So, what you said is wrong. It's either a misapplication of statistics or you deserve the Nobel Prize for discovering an entirely new kind of mathematics.

And what I said and am saying again is that statistically unlikely events (not necessarily dice rolls) will indeed be truthfully reported to have occurred during your lifetime because you live in a world filled with >7 Billion people who are doing thousands of things a day (not rolling dice, but thousands of diverse things) for many thousands of days. And I stand by that statement. And I preceded that by saying that I also did not believe that a claim with a frequency of 1 in 40 trillion was likely to be true.
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Yeah sure, we live in a big world with a lot of people, but with a 1 in 40 trillion craps event we don't get to the "well it could happen" threshold until there are craps tables on every street corner, in every house, in every church, mosque, and hindu temple, in every restaurant, hotel room, office, store, hospital, car wash, bank, airplane, boat, train car, and Starbucks.
Mental
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February 21st, 2023 at 2:45:59 PM permalink
I live on a planet with 1 billion hardcore craps players. They play an average of 1,000 established points per year. They have been playing 40 years on average. They should have collectively experienced one 1:40T event. Maybe zero, maybe two or more.

They will have 4,000 1:1M events. If 1 in 100 of these 4000 players is really bad at keeping track of streaks and misremembers it as a 1:40T event, then we will have 40 incorrectly reported events. It is easy to forget one or two wins across multiple sessions that actually dropped the odds from 1:40T to 1:1M

If one in a million players decided it is cool to falsely report a 1:40Tbad luck streak, then we will have 1,000 false reports.

If 1 in 1000 players has voices in their head telling them this 1:40T streak actually happened to them, then we will have 1M false reports from players who really believed it happened.

Reverend Thomas Bayes tells me to ignore every reported 1:40T event because it is extremely unlikely to be a real event amongst all this noise.

N.B. My observations indicate that the percentages of gamblers who are careless/poor record keepers, forgetful, whacko, or outright liars are much higher than the numbers that I used above.

I live on a different planer than OP, so none of this conjecture applies to OP.
This forum is more enjoyable after I learned how to use the 'Block this user' button.
Ace2
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February 21st, 2023 at 3:36:07 PM permalink
Put another way: let’s assume there are 1000 active craps tables in the world (the vast majority in the USA) played nonstop at 20 passline decisions per hour (comeout roll decisions excluded). That’s 175 million decisions per year, so a 1 in 40 trillion event will happen every 230,000 years. Modern craps, played in casinos as we know it today, hasn’t even existed 100 years.
It’s all about making that GTA
kmccorm1
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February 21st, 2023 at 4:13:47 PM permalink
lol. That's OK, I can see how it would be hard to believe. But thanks for the 1 in 10 billion estimate, at least now I have an idea of how rare it was.

BTW - I started counting after the 6th or 7th straight come bet came down. I wasn't completely sure, I went with 7 and continued on and counted to 45. I'm human, so there's an outside chance that I miscounted another along the way (each one was another "No freakin' way" moment). At 10B - 1, I expect there would be mostly unbelievers but that's OK - you certainly can't believe everything you read on the internet! I'm not looking to convince anyone, just looking for the odds of it occurring. I know the truth (actually suffered through it) and that's plenty for me.

I appreciate the response!
SOOPOO
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February 21st, 2023 at 4:52:39 PM permalink
If you post next week you’ve won 30 such bets in a row we’ll be skeptical again!

You seem like a bright guy who wants to learn. You were able to get the approximately 60% chance to lose the bet once a point was established. So to know the likelihood of losing 45 such bets in a row you just do 0.6 to the 45th power. Getting around 1/10,000,000,000. As a previous poster pointed out it’s not exactly 60% so my answer is an ‘ish’.

Let’s say you were playing online instead of a regular brick and mortar casino. People would be WAY MORE likely to believe you, but……. more likely because you were cheated than it was a true random event….

Welcome to the forum.
Ace2
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February 21st, 2023 at 8:36:29 PM permalink
Quote: kmccorm1

And for me, it's more about comps (free rooms, food, events, golf, etc.) than anything else. Craps is fun, but it's the perks that make it all worth while :)
link to original post

”Free” rooms, etc?

The only reason to play is for fun. The comps they give you will be far less than the house edge you give them. You pay them $1000 to get $300 worth of stuff
It’s all about making that GTA
AxelWolf
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February 21st, 2023 at 10:22:47 PM permalink
Quote: Ace2

Quote: kmccorm1

And for me, it's more about comps (free rooms, food, events, golf, etc.) than anything else. Craps is fun, but it's the perks that make it all worth while :)
link to original post

”Free” rooms, etc?

The only reason to play is for fun. The comps they give you will be far less than the house edge you give them. You pay them $1000 to get $300 worth of stuff
link to original post

We have a member here claiming it's standard to get 20% based on losses or theo, if no losses, or whatever is greater (and that's also on Baccarat and BJ). That's enough to overcome the HA even on roulette if you value your comps at face value. Additional perks such as table play, tournaments, drawings, gift cards, etc would give you actual +EV.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
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