GenoDRPh
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September 19th, 2022 at 2:35:27 PM permalink
So as not to hijack an existing thread, here's a hypothetical:

A DI practitioner claims to be able to throw the dice and reduce a probability of a seven rolling from 1 in 6 to 1 in 8.

How does that change the HE on a 1 unit pass line bet with no odds if there is no point established? How does the HE change with a decrease in chance of come out roll wins, but increase in chance of come out roll loses, and increased chance of points being established.

How does that change the HE on a 1 unit pass line bet with no odds if there is a point established? How does the HE change due to a decrease in chance of seven out, an increase in chance of making the point, and an increase in chance of a push?

Feel free to assume either the probability of the other number combinations increase equally, or increase in proportion of their existing probabilities. Ideally, an analyses of both assumptions would be ideal.

Gene
Mission146
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September 19th, 2022 at 2:45:39 PM permalink
I'll probably get on this for you tomorrow and incorporate my answer into an upcoming, "Ask Mission," article for LCB. I'm afraid I am already in the middle of a project this evening, or I would do it now.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
AlanMendelson
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September 19th, 2022 at 2:48:15 PM permalink
The house edge doesn't change.
Mission146
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September 19th, 2022 at 2:50:36 PM permalink
Quote: AlanMendelson

The house edge doesn't change.
link to original post



If the probabilities change, then the House Edge changes. The entire purpose of the DI theory is that the House Edge would change.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
GenoDRPh
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September 19th, 2022 at 2:57:42 PM permalink
I am in no hurry, and appreciate the work people better at this math than I pit in to answering these questions.

Gene
AlanMendelson
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September 19th, 2022 at 2:57:48 PM permalink
Quote: Mission146

Quote: AlanMendelson

The house edge doesn't change.
link to original post



If the probabilities change, then the House Edge changes. The entire purpose of the DI theory is that the House Edge would change.
link to original post



The house edge is mathematical and fixed. The edge never changes.
DJTeddyBear
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September 19th, 2022 at 3:01:00 PM permalink
Quote: GenoDRPh

How does the HE change with a decrease in chance of come out roll wins, but increase in chance of come out roll loses, and increased chance of points being established. link to original post

I assume that DIs try to avoid the seven EXCEPT on come out rolls.

On a come out, they don’t try to influence, or if they do, they may try to INCREASE the number of sevens.

At least that’s what I would assume.
I invented a few casino games. Info: http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/ ————————————————————————————————————— Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
unJon
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September 19th, 2022 at 3:04:09 PM permalink
I don’t think the OP question is the exactly correct to analyze. To be more practical, the question would have the DI attempt to throw more 7s on the come out and less 7s after.

The “mechanics” of how this would hypothetically work would be either “keeping the die on axis” or “keeping the die spinning in a correlated manner.” I expect those two “methods” would lead to different math equations because of how you spread the probabilities to other faces.

Would probably be simplest to start with an “on axis” analysis.

Say after the come out, the left die is set with a 3 on top and a 1 and 6 “off axis.” The right die is set with a 3 on top and a 2 and 5 “off axis.” For a die, the “on axis” faces would have X% of showing and “off axis” faces have Y probability of showing, where X > Y.

You can then use above to solve for X and Y where the probability of a 7 is 1/8.

You will then get a probability distribution for the other numbers based on X and Y.

For the come out, the DI would say set 1 and 6 “off axis” on both dice. Apply X and Y to get number distributions and 7 should happen some % more than 1/6.

Anyway, Mission, I hope this makes sense and helps frame the problem in an intelligible way.

Correlated spinning seems more complicated to me. Happy to think through the possible construct if people are interested in analysis.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
Mission146
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September 19th, 2022 at 3:19:56 PM permalink
Quote: AlanMendelson

Quote: Mission146

Quote: AlanMendelson

The house edge doesn't change.
link to original post



If the probabilities change, then the House Edge changes. The entire purpose of the DI theory is that the House Edge would change.
link to original post



The house edge is mathematical and fixed. The edge never changes.
link to original post



What is the probability, holding 10dJdQdKd, of you drawing to a Royal Flush if I remove all but the Ace of Diamonds from the deck? If the probability has changed, then what is your expected outcome of that draw?
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
unJon
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September 19th, 2022 at 3:23:51 PM permalink
Quote: AlanMendelson

Quote: Mission146

Quote: AlanMendelson

The house edge doesn't change.
link to original post



If the probabilities change, then the House Edge changes. The entire purpose of the DI theory is that the House Edge would change.
link to original post



The house edge is mathematical and fixed. The edge never changes.
link to original post

The house edge is fixed only if the probability of each face of a die showing on top is 1/6. If that probability changes the edge changes.

Simple example, introduce loaded dice that always through a 10. The house edge of playing craps on pass line with those dice is negative infinity. It’s impossible not to hit the pass line for the throws that die is rolled for the coke out and the following roll.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
SOOPOO
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September 19th, 2022 at 3:24:59 PM permalink
Quote: AlanMendelson

Quote: Mission146

Quote: AlanMendelson

The house edge doesn't change.
link to original post



If the probabilities change, then the House Edge changes. The entire purpose of the DI theory is that the House Edge would change.
link to original post



The house edge is mathematical and fixed. The edge never changes.
link to original post



I cannot imagine a post showing less insight into math than this one!!!!! PLEASE TELL ME YOU WERE TROLLING the forum and you do not actually believe that if the frequency of certain numbers change that the house edge wouldn’t change? PLEASE!!!!!
AlanMendelson
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September 19th, 2022 at 3:43:12 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: AlanMendelson

Quote: Mission146

Quote: AlanMendelson

The house edge doesn't change.
link to original post



If the probabilities change, then the House Edge changes. The entire purpose of the DI theory is that the House Edge would change.
link to original post



The house edge is mathematical and fixed. The edge never changes.
link to original post



I cannot imagine a post showing less insight into math than this one!!!!! PLEASE TELL ME YOU WERE TROLLING the forum and you do not actually believe that if the frequency of certain numbers change that the house edge wouldn’t change? PLEASE!!!!!
link to original post



I guess I'm using the wrong definitions. But the way I determine the house edge is by the numbers of combinations for each pairing. That to me is the house edge.
Mission146
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September 19th, 2022 at 4:01:17 PM permalink
Quote: AlanMendelson



I guess I'm using the wrong definitions. But the way I determine the house edge is by the numbers of combinations for each pairing. That to me is the house edge.
link to original post



I don't think you're using the wrong definition. The number of combinations for each roll of a pair of dice represents the probability of rolling that result. The fundamental goal of dice influencing is to change the probabilities (by increasing or decreasing the likelihood of particular results) to make the probabilities NOT that. If that can be done, then the goal would be to demonstrate that it can be done well-enough to shift the probabilities such that one would gain an advantage.

In other words, there's literally zero point to attempting to influence the dice (unless you just set them because it looks neat) if you're not trying to influence the probabilities to be something other than what they are otherwise.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
GenoDRPh
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September 19th, 2022 at 4:02:41 PM permalink
Quote: DJTeddyBear

Quote: GenoDRPh

How does the HE change with a decrease in chance of come out roll wins, but increase in chance of come out roll loses, and increased chance of points being established. link to original post

I assume that DIs try to avoid the seven EXCEPT on come out rolls.

On a come out, they don’t try to influence, or if they do, they may try to INCREASE the number of sevens.

At least that’s what I would assume.
link to original post



Under the conditions in my hypothetical - possibly rolling a 7 less than 1 in 8 times - change the ratio of come out roll winners on a 7 or 11 to come out roll losers on a 2,3 or 12 or establishing a point? Is it more advantageous to roll randomly on the come out or use DI on the come out, factoring in the possibility of hitting a point for a win in a subsequent roll?

Gene
GenoDRPh
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September 19th, 2022 at 4:06:12 PM permalink
Quote: unJon

I don’t think the OP question is the exactly correct to analyze. To be more practical, the question would have the DI attempt to throw more 7s on the come out and less 7s after.

The “mechanics” of how this would hypothetically work would be either “keeping the die on axis” or “keeping the die spinning in a correlated manner.” I expect those two “methods” would lead to different math equations because of how you spread the probabilities to other faces.

Would probably be simplest to start with an “on axis” analysis.

Say after the come out, the left die is set with a 3 on top and a 1 and 6 “off axis.” The right die is set with a 3 on top and a 2 and 5 “off axis.” For a die, the “on axis” faces would have X% of showing and “off axis” faces have Y probability of showing, where X > Y.

You can then use above to solve for X and Y where the probability of a 7 is 1/8.

You will then get a probability distribution for the other numbers based on X and Y.

For the come out, the DI would say set 1 and 6 “off axis” on both dice. Apply X and Y to get number distributions and 7 should happen some % more than 1/6.

Anyway, Mission, I hope this makes sense and helps frame the problem in an intelligible way.

Correlated spinning seems more complicated to me. Happy to think through the possible construct if people are interested in analysis.
link to original post



The OP stands by his hypothetical of a hypothetical dice influencer attempting to roll a seven no greater than 1 roll in 8 for all rolls, under the conditions he mentioned in the original, not unintelligible post.

Gene
unJon
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September 19th, 2022 at 4:08:20 PM permalink
Quote: GenoDRPh

Quote: unJon

I don’t think the OP question is the exactly correct to analyze. To be more practical, the question would have the DI attempt to throw more 7s on the come out and less 7s after.

The “mechanics” of how this would hypothetically work would be either “keeping the die on axis” or “keeping the die spinning in a correlated manner.” I expect those two “methods” would lead to different math equations because of how you spread the probabilities to other faces.

Would probably be simplest to start with an “on axis” analysis.

Say after the come out, the left die is set with a 3 on top and a 1 and 6 “off axis.” The right die is set with a 3 on top and a 2 and 5 “off axis.” For a die, the “on axis” faces would have X% of showing and “off axis” faces have Y probability of showing, where X > Y.

You can then use above to solve for X and Y where the probability of a 7 is 1/8.

You will then get a probability distribution for the other numbers based on X and Y.

For the come out, the DI would say set 1 and 6 “off axis” on both dice. Apply X and Y to get number distributions and 7 should happen some % more than 1/6.

Anyway, Mission, I hope this makes sense and helps frame the problem in an intelligible way.

Correlated spinning seems more complicated to me. Happy to think through the possible construct if people are interested in analysis.
link to original post



The OP stands by his hypothetical of a hypothetical dice influencer attempting to roll a seven no greater than 1 roll in 8 for all rolls, under the conditions he mentioned in the original, not unintelligible post.

Gene
link to original post



LOL. If you found my post unintelligible, wait until you see Mission’s response and math!
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
Mission146
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September 19th, 2022 at 4:09:08 PM permalink
Quote: unJon



LOL. If you found my post unintelligible, wait until you see Mission’s response and math!
link to original post



I should double down on this and post it in extremely poor French.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
GenoDRPh
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September 19th, 2022 at 4:14:21 PM permalink
Quote: Mission146

Quote: unJon



LOL. If you found my post unintelligible, wait until you see Mission’s response and math!
link to original post



I should double down on this and post it in extremely poor French.
link to original post



Would you prefer my response in my equally poor Spanish or my equally poor Italian?

Gene
GenoDRPh
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September 19th, 2022 at 4:16:58 PM permalink
Quote: unJon

Quote: GenoDRPh

Quote: unJon

I don’t think the OP question is the exactly correct to analyze. To be more practical, the question would have the DI attempt to throw more 7s on the come out and less 7s after.

The “mechanics” of how this would hypothetically work would be either “keeping the die on axis” or “keeping the die spinning in a correlated manner.” I expect those two “methods” would lead to different math equations because of how you spread the probabilities to other faces.

Would probably be simplest to start with an “on axis” analysis.

Say after the come out, the left die is set with a 3 on top and a 1 and 6 “off axis.” The right die is set with a 3 on top and a 2 and 5 “off axis.” For a die, the “on axis” faces would have X% of showing and “off axis” faces have Y probability of showing, where X > Y.

You can then use above to solve for X and Y where the probability of a 7 is 1/8.

You will then get a probability distribution for the other numbers based on X and Y.

For the come out, the DI would say set 1 and 6 “off axis” on both dice. Apply X and Y to get number distributions and 7 should happen some % more than 1/6.

Anyway, Mission, I hope this makes sense and helps frame the problem in an intelligible way.

Correlated spinning seems more complicated to me. Happy to think through the possible construct if people are interested in analysis.
link to original post



The OP stands by his hypothetical of a hypothetical dice influencer attempting to roll a seven no greater than 1 roll in 8 for all rolls, under the conditions he mentioned in the original, not unintelligible post.

Gene
link to original post



LOL. If you found my post unintelligible, wait until you see Mission’s response and math!
link to original post



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-z0o6hqEnP0

Math is math!
AxelWolf
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September 20th, 2022 at 2:05:43 AM permalink
Quote: AlanMendelson

The house edge doesn't change.
link to original post

If I'm playing craps alone and I have a 5% players edge, whats the houses edge?
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
ChumpChange
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September 20th, 2022 at 2:10:05 AM permalink
The point is to throw 7-11's on the come-out and to avoid throwing 7's any other time. It probably all averages out to 1 in 6, but please, only one 7 per 7-out.
AxelWolf
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September 20th, 2022 at 2:21:08 AM permalink
Quote: GenoDRPh

Quote: unJon

Quote: GenoDRPh

Quote: unJon

I don’t think the OP question is the exactly correct to analyze. To be more practical, the question would have the DI attempt to throw more 7s on the come out and less 7s after.

The “mechanics” of how this would hypothetically work would be either “keeping the die on axis” or “keeping the die spinning in a correlated manner.” I expect those two “methods” would lead to different math equations because of how you spread the probabilities to other faces.

Would probably be simplest to start with an “on axis” analysis.

Say after the come out, the left die is set with a 3 on top and a 1 and 6 “off axis.” The right die is set with a 3 on top and a 2 and 5 “off axis.” For a die, the “on axis” faces would have X% of showing and “off axis” faces have Y probability of showing, where X > Y.

You can then use above to solve for X and Y where the probability of a 7 is 1/8.

You will then get a probability distribution for the other numbers based on X and Y.

For the come out, the DI would say set 1 and 6 “off axis” on both dice. Apply X and Y to get number distributions and 7 should happen some % more than 1/6.

Anyway, Mission, I hope this makes sense and helps frame the problem in an intelligible way.

Correlated spinning seems more complicated to me. Happy to think through the possible construct if people are interested in analysis.
link to original post



The OP stands by his hypothetical of a hypothetical dice influencer attempting to roll a seven no greater than 1 roll in 8 for all rolls, under the conditions he mentioned in the original, not unintelligible post.

Gene
link to original post



LOL. If you found my post unintelligible, wait until you see Mission’s response and math!
link to original post



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-z0o6hqEnP0

Math is math!
link to original post

Math? We ain't got no math, we don't need no math! I don't have to show you any stinking math!
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
Mission146
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September 21st, 2022 at 11:12:57 AM permalink
Quote: GenoDRPh

So as not to hijack an existing thread, here's a hypothetical:

A DI practitioner claims to be able to throw the dice and reduce a probability of a seven rolling from 1 in 6 to 1 in 8.

How does that change the HE on a 1 unit pass line bet with no odds if there is no point established? How does the HE change with a decrease in chance of come out roll wins, but increase in chance of come out roll loses, and increased chance of points being established.

How does that change the HE on a 1 unit pass line bet with no odds if there is a point established? How does the HE change due to a decrease in chance of seven out, an increase in chance of making the point, and an increase in chance of a push?

Feel free to assume either the probability of the other number combinations increase equally, or increase in proportion of their existing probabilities. Ideally, an analyses of both assumptions would be ideal.

Gene
link to original post



DISCLAIMER: THIS POST HAS BEEN SUBSTANTIALLY EDITED TO REMOVE MISTAKES DUE TO GOING TOO FAST AND ALSO THE FACT THAT I AM AN IDIOT.

First of all, I apologize for the delay, but my big project took a little longer than anticipated.

Secondly, I'm going to answer this, but I do want to somewhat modify the parameters. The key to being a good snake oil salesman is that the product you are offering must superficially sound viable, with that, I think 1 in 8 sevens is entirely too high. It wouldn't even take a very large sample of tosses to prove it is mathematically unlikely that the claimant does that long-term, so I seriously doubt anyone would even make that claim.

Superficially, it looks like just a 4.1% change of outcome, but look at it over 100 rolls with 12.5 (actual) compared to 16.6 (normally expected) and that example would be saying that it effectively reduces the frequency of sevens by about 25%.

What I am going to do is reduce this to a more reasonable 1 in 6.5, which would change the expected percentage from 16.6667% to about 15.3846%.

The second modification I am going to make is that we are just going to assume that the CO roll is thrown such as to not change anything vis-a-vis the long-term probabilities. After all, a PL bet enjoys its only advantage (in terms of probability of winning as opposed to losing) on the CO anyway. Now, one might argue, "But, I try to roll more sevens on the CO, but I don't care," since this is all hypothetical anyway.

The one thing that I am keeping is that we will treat the increase to other combinations as equal. I get that dice influencers say they are trying to hit certain other numbers with greater frequency, but in the non-hypothetical world, we have yet to see any actual mathematical evidence to back the assertion that they can even reduce sevens, much less increase the probability of other numbers.

With that, the probabilities on the CO are:

Snake Eyes: 2.7778%
Three: 5.5556%
Four: 8.3333%
Five: 11.1111%
Six: 13.8889%
Seven: 16.6667%
Eight: 13.8889%
Nine: 11.1111%
Ten: 8.3333%
Yo: 5.5556%
Midnight: 2.7778%

Okay, so what we have are the following:

Immediate Loss: 11.1111%
Immediate Win: 22.2222%
Point Established (4, 10): 16.6667%
Points Established (5,9): 22.2222%
Point Established (6, 8) 27.7778%

Any Point Established: 66.6667%

Therefore, our expectation on the Pass Line bet (taken alone) is simply:

.222222 - .111111 = .111111

Thus, on a bet of one unit, we have an expected gain of 11.1111% looking at the Come Out roll in isolation.

The point being established, we only care about sevens and that point number. With that, we have the following expected losses based on the probability of arriving at that Point Number (via the CO) to begin with and then comparing to sevens:

Point of Four or Ten: 3/36 * (3/9 - 6/9) = -0.02777777777 * 2 = -0.05555555555

Point of Five or Nine: 4/36 * (4/10 - 6/10) = -0.02222222222 * 2 = -.00444444444

Point of Six or Eight: 5/36 * (5/11 - 6/11) = -0.01262626262 * 2 = -0.02525252525

Now, we just total these losses and then subtract the result from our Come Out advantage:

.111111 - (.0555555555555 + .0444444444444 + .02525252525) = -0.01414152524

Thus, reflecting the House Edge of the Pass Line of about 1.414%.

That's the Pass Line bet in a nutshell.

Okay, so what we want to do is reduce the odds of a seven to 1 in 6.5 rather than 1 in 6, which will result in the following probability shift:

(1/6) - (1/6.5) = 0.01282051282

Okay, so we want sevens to decrease by that and everything else to increase proportionately. It's important to note that, given the intended impact of dice setting, these things are not meant to increase proportionately to one another, but there's really no way to measure the success rate of something that has not been demonstrated to be successful in the first place. For that reason, we can't know the exact probabilities of what should shift away from sevens to other numbers.

Also, we have taken away from sevens, so we do not want to add to sevens. For that reason, what we will do is take this change in percentage and multiply it by the fact that the sevens must also be something else and then add those together.

0.01282051282 + (0.01282051282 * 1/6) = 0.01495726495

With that out of the way, we simply multiply our other results' normal probabilities by the above, then add what the probability would normally be into that, and hopefully, the sum of all probabilities after we have done so will be something very close to 1.

Snake Eyes: 2.7778%---> (1/36 * 0.01495726495) + 1/36 = 0.02819325735
Three: 5.5556%---> (2/36 * 0.01495726495) + 2/36 = 0.05638651471
Four: 8.3333%---> (3/36 * 0.01495726495) + 3/36 = 0.08457977207
Five: 11.1111%---> (4/36 * 0.01495726495) + 4/36 = 0.11277302943
Six: 13.8889%---> (5/36 * 0.01495726495) + 5/36 = 0.14096628679
Seven: 16.6667--->0.15384615384
Eight: 13.8889%---> 0.14096628679
Nine: 11.1111%---> 0.11277302943
Ten: 8.3333%---> 0.08457977207
Yo: 5.5556%---> 0.05638651471
Midnight: 2.7778%---> 0.02819325735

SUM: 0.02819325735 + 0.02819325735 + 0.05638651471 + 0.05638651471 + 0.08457977207 + 0.08457977207 + 0.11277302943 + 0.11277302943 + 0.14096628679 + 0.14096628679 + 0.15384615384 = 0.99964387454

I'd assume this is slightly off of one due to rounding. It's certainly a hell of a lot closer than it was last time.

Okay, so now what we will do is look at our situations the same way, so we only care about those numbers and seven.

Four or Ten + Seven Combined Probability:

0.08457977207 + 0.15384615384 = 0.23842592591

Four and Ten Solved:

(0.08457977207/0.23842592591) - (0.15384615384/0.23842592591) = -0.29051530996 * 6/36 = -0.04841921832

Five and Nine Combined Probability:

0.15384615384 + 0.11277302943 = 0.26661918327

Five and Nine Solved:

(0.11277302943/.26661918327) - (0.15384615384/.26661918327) = -0.15405164739 * 8/36 = -0.03423369942

Six and Eight Combined Probability:

0.15384615384 + 0.14096628679 = 0.29481244063

Six and Eight Solved:

(.14096628679/.29481244063) - (.15384615384/.29481244063) = -0.04368834307 * 10/36 = -0.01213565085

As we can see, the disadvantage of these situations has been reduced due to the reduced frequency of sevens thus necessitating an increased frequency of these other numbers. Will it change our results overall to an expected positive, let's find out:

.111111 - 0.04841921832 - 0.03423369942 - 0.0121356085 = 0.01632247376

The result is a player advantage of 1.632247376%, which would be even more insurmountable than the, 'Normal,' disadvantage on the Pass Line bet is over the long-term.

Also, keep in mind we made the following other assumptions:

1.) We roll, 'Normally,' on the Come Out.

2.) While we reduce the frequency of sevens to 1 in 6.5, we are not disproportionately increasing the frequency of other numbers. This is important to note because people who purport to be dice influencers will often state that they are trying for sixes and eights. Since nobody has ever demonstrated that they can reduce the frequency of sevens to 1 in 6.5, much less demonstrated what doing so will increase their expected sixes and eights to, I really don't care.

3.) This is Pass Line only. If you want to know what this does to Odds Bets, it would be trivial to incorporate the Odds into what I have already done. Alternatively, I can always do so later.*

*Obviously, given the above assumptions, Odds bets would be made at an advantage if you could reduce the frequency of sevens (without reducing the frequency of the desired number) at all.

DISCLAIMER: THIS POST HAS BEEN SUBSTANTIALLY EDITED TO REMOVE MISTAKES DUE TO GOING TOO FAST AND ALSO THE FACT THAT I AM AN IDIOT.
Last edited by: Mission146 on Sep 22, 2022
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
odiousgambit
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September 21st, 2022 at 12:34:05 PM permalink
Quote: Mission146

[snips]

In conclusion, this would reduce the House Edge of the Pass Line bet to 0.79829%,

worth emphasizing

Quote:

... roughly, given the following parameters:

1.) We roll, 'Normally,' on the Come Out.

2.) While we reduce the frequency of sevens to 1 in 6.5, we are not disproportionately increasing the frequency of other numbers. This is important to note because people who purport to be dice influencers will often state that they are trying for sixes and eights.

3.) This is Pass Line only. If you want to know what this does to Odds Bets, and if an overall advantage could be produced by incorporating them, it would be trivial to incorporate the Odds into what I have already done. Alternatively, I can always do so later.*

Of course we want to know! Thanks for the work, Mission. I don't think the math is over my head, exactly, but it's always a chore to try to follow what someone else has done. Most here are also pondering that. But thanks!

I was thinking this: I believe it is a principle that if the HE on any bet cannot be changed to +EV, then adding a zero edge bet means it can't be flipped to +EV then either [edited]. However, then I read the below

Quote:

*Obviously, given the above assumptions, Odds bets would be made at an advantage if you could reduce the frequency of sevens (without reducing the frequency of the desired number) at all.

so instead of betting along with the 'good shooter' a player should endeavor instead to find a different player who isn't using up all his odds betting potential and bet behind his number. There are a lot of those people!

link to original post

the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
Ace2
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September 21st, 2022 at 12:49:25 PM permalink
Better yet, accept the fact that there is no such thing as a good shooter or a bad shooter.

A first time player is just as likely to have a monster roll as the most experienced shooter
It’s all about making that GTA
GenoDRPh
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September 21st, 2022 at 1:20:46 PM permalink
I thank you for your hard work and promptitude in answering the question asked, as modified. I chose a single, 1 unit pass line bet with no odds behind because that's a common bet, and has a low house edge. I figured that would be a relatively simple analysis.

Under the same or similar hypothetical conditions, how infrequent must a 7 roll to reduce the HE on a 1 unit pass line bet with no odds behind to reduce the HE on that bet from 1..41% to zero?

Gene
unJon
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September 21st, 2022 at 6:13:02 PM permalink
I get a player edge of 1.6459% on a flat passline if you roll sevens 1/6 of the time on come out and 1/6.5 of the time after. Assuming the extra probability is spread among the other outcomes ratably.*

Breakeven on no odds passline I get 1/6.23 of the time 7.

Mission I don’t know where you messed up (or if I messed up, but I just double checked my Excel).


* As I said in my first (possibly unintelligible) post in this thread, I don’t think raising the probability of rolling other numbers is the right way to analyze the issue. For instance, if the DI in theory was setting so to get a 1 and 6 not to show one of the die, and was semi-successful in that, then the chance of a 2 or 12 would of course fall also, in addition to the chance of 7. And the chance of other numbers would increase more than ratably.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
Mission146
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September 21st, 2022 at 6:35:37 PM permalink
Quote: GenoDRPh

I thank you for your hard work and promptitude in answering the question asked, as modified. I chose a single, 1 unit pass line bet with no odds behind because that's a common bet, and has a low house edge. I figured that would be a relatively simple analysis.

Under the same or similar hypothetical conditions, how infrequent must a 7 roll to reduce the HE on a 1 unit pass line bet with no odds behind to reduce the HE on that bet from 1..41% to zero?

Gene
link to original post



The change we made cut the HE almost in half, so I’d say that they would have to roll slightly fewer than 1 in 7 sevens, all else being equal and proportionate. You’re welcome! I’ll do Odds tomorrow based on 1 in 6.5 and actually do it right; though the oversight is negligible.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
Mission146
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September 21st, 2022 at 6:39:54 PM permalink
Quote: unJon

I get a player edge of 1.6459% on a flat passline if you roll sevens 1/6 of the time on come out and 1/6.5 of the time after. Assuming the extra probability is spread among the other outcomes ratably.*

Breakeven on no odds passline I get 1/6.23 of the time 7.

Mission I don’t know where you messed up (or if I messed up, but I just double checked my Excel).


* As I said in my first (possibly unintelligible) post in this thread, I don’t think raising the probability of rolling other numbers is the right way to analyze the issue. For instance, if the DI in theory was setting so to get a 1 and 6 not to show one of the die, and was semi-successful in that, then the chance of a 2 or 12 would of course fall also, in addition to the chance of 7. And the chance of other numbers would increase more than ratably.
link to original post



I’m not sure, but I just noticed it would be a player ADVANTAGE of 0.79829% per my math because I started with +HE and subtracted from that. I had somewhere to go and was going too fast anyway. Editing that post now.

If I made a mistake, do you think you’d be able to find it? I feel like you’d have better fortune with mine than me trying to check your Excel; I probably wouldn’t even understand what was being done.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
unJon
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September 21st, 2022 at 6:52:51 PM permalink
Quote: Mission146

Quote: unJon

I get a player edge of 1.6459% on a flat passline if you roll sevens 1/6 of the time on come out and 1/6.5 of the time after. Assuming the extra probability is spread among the other outcomes ratably.*

Breakeven on no odds passline I get 1/6.23 of the time 7.

Mission I don’t know where you messed up (or if I messed up, but I just double checked my Excel).


* As I said in my first (possibly unintelligible) post in this thread, I don’t think raising the probability of rolling other numbers is the right way to analyze the issue. For instance, if the DI in theory was setting so to get a 1 and 6 not to show one of the die, and was semi-successful in that, then the chance of a 2 or 12 would of course fall also, in addition to the chance of 7. And the chance of other numbers would increase more than ratably.
link to original post



I’m not sure, but I just noticed it would be a player ADVANTAGE of 0.79829% per my math because I started with +HE and subtracted from that. I had somewhere to go and was going too fast anyway. Editing that post now.

If I made a mistake, do you think you’d be able to find it? I feel like you’d have better fortune with mine than me trying to check your Excel; I probably wouldn’t even understand what was being done.
link to original post



Closing the gap.

The impact of odds is incredible. Huge player edge if you could do 1/6.5. I get breakeven around 1/6.037.

Haven’t double checked the odds calcs yet though.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
unJon
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September 21st, 2022 at 6:59:51 PM permalink
Quote: Mission146

Quote: unJon

I get a player edge of 1.6459% on a flat passline if you roll sevens 1/6 of the time on come out and 1/6.5 of the time after. Assuming the extra probability is spread among the other outcomes ratably.*

Breakeven on no odds passline I get 1/6.23 of the time 7.

Mission I don’t know where you messed up (or if I messed up, but I just double checked my Excel).


* As I said in my first (possibly unintelligible) post in this thread, I don’t think raising the probability of rolling other numbers is the right way to analyze the issue. For instance, if the DI in theory was setting so to get a 1 and 6 not to show one of the die, and was semi-successful in that, then the chance of a 2 or 12 would of course fall also, in addition to the chance of 7. And the chance of other numbers would increase more than ratably.
link to original post



I’m not sure, but I just noticed it would be a player ADVANTAGE of 0.79829% per my math because I started with +HE and subtracted from that. I had somewhere to go and was going too fast anyway. Editing that post now.

If I made a mistake, do you think you’d be able to find it? I feel like you’d have better fortune with mine than me trying to check your Excel; I probably wouldn’t even understand what was being done.
link to original post



In the beginning part of your post you calculate pass line HE at -0.139394. That’s an order of magnitude too high. The HE is -0.01414.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
unJon
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September 21st, 2022 at 7:13:10 PM permalink
Quote: Mission146


Thus, on a bet of one unit, we have an expected gain of 11.1111% looking at the Come Out roll in isolation.

The point being established, we only care about sevens and that point number. With that, we have the following expected losses in the following cases:

Point of Six or Eight: (5/11 - 6/11) * 2 = --0.18182

Point of Five or Nine: (4/10 - 6/10) * 2 = -.4

Point of Four or Ten: (3/9) - (6/9) * 2 = -0.66667

Finally, to get our total expected loss from each situation, we must multiply by the probability of that situation occurring on the CO roll:

Point of Six or Eight: -.18182 * .277778 = -0.050506

Point of Five or Nine: -.4 * .22222 = -0.088888

Point of Four or Ten: -.66667 * .16667 = -0.111111

Now, we just total these losses and then subtract the result from our Come Out advantage:

.111111 - (.050506 + .088888 + .111111) = -0.139394 (Error is due to rounding)



Quote truncated. Take the 4/10 calculation where you’ve doubled the HE impact. I think you doubled it twice when you combined 4 and 10 for convenience.

Contribution from the 4 is:

3/36 * (3/9 - 6/9) = -0.0277777

So contribution for 4/10 is double that: -0.05555556

You doubled it again to get to -0.1111111111
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
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September 21st, 2022 at 7:28:22 PM permalink
You guys are over here trying to calculate what tiny edge can be achieved via DI if possible. Meanwhile, We have someone with a HUGE advantage on roulette.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
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September 21st, 2022 at 7:52:13 PM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

You guys are over here trying to calculate what tiny edge can be achieved via DI if possible. Meanwhile, We have someone with a HUGE advantage on roulette.
link to original post



These calculations are good to see. You don't get rich with DI. It's a matter of small wins.

The misinformed think DIs are walking away with bags of cash.
GenoDRPh
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September 21st, 2022 at 8:14:42 PM permalink
Duplicate deleted
GenoDRPh
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September 21st, 2022 at 8:14:44 PM permalink
Duplicate deleted
GenoDRPh
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September 21st, 2022 at 8:14:45 PM permalink
I get small wins at the craps tables most of the time anyway. Some bigger than others, and some smaller than others. I'm a tight player, making low HE bets, with a loss limit and a win ceiling as to when I stop playing. If I could demonstrate that I can change the HE from -EV to zero, or from -EV to +EV, I'd be upping the win ceiling, but keeping the loss limit the same.

Gene
unJon
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September 21st, 2022 at 8:29:13 PM permalink
Impact of max odds.

Flat passline betting, after come out need to throw a little more than 6 fewer sevens in 1,000 rolls.

With max 3/4/5 odds, after come out need to throw 1 fewer seven in 1,000 rolls.

All goes to Ace2 point about how variance of the max odds better can keep them positive so easily.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
GenoDRPh
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September 21st, 2022 at 8:32:20 PM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

You guys are over here trying to calculate what tiny edge can be achieved via DI if possible. Meanwhile, We have someone with a HUGE advantage on roulette.
link to original post



When he either takes the Pepsi Challenge, or gets booted from a B&M casino, then I'll start caring....

Gene
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September 21st, 2022 at 9:56:37 PM permalink
With a break even at 1/6.23 and a +EV at 1/6.5 with no odds behind, and a +EV with max odds at 1/6.03, maybe this isn't outlandish after all....

Gene
Mission146
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September 22nd, 2022 at 4:14:26 AM permalink
Quote: unJon

Quote: Mission146


Thus, on a bet of one unit, we have an expected gain of 11.1111% looking at the Come Out roll in isolation.

The point being established, we only care about sevens and that point number. With that, we have the following expected losses in the following cases:

Point of Six or Eight: (5/11 - 6/11) * 2 = --0.18182

Point of Five or Nine: (4/10 - 6/10) * 2 = -.4

Point of Four or Ten: (3/9) - (6/9) * 2 = -0.66667

Finally, to get our total expected loss from each situation, we must multiply by the probability of that situation occurring on the CO roll:

Point of Six or Eight: -.18182 * .277778 = -0.050506

Point of Five or Nine: -.4 * .22222 = -0.088888

Point of Four or Ten: -.66667 * .16667 = -0.111111

Now, we just total these losses and then subtract the result from our Come Out advantage:

.111111 - (.050506 + .088888 + .111111) = -0.139394 (Error is due to rounding)



Quote truncated. Take the 4/10 calculation where you’ve doubled the HE impact. I think you doubled it twice when you combined 4 and 10 for convenience.

Contribution from the 4 is:

3/36 * (3/9 - 6/9) = -0.0277777

So contribution for 4/10 is double that: -0.05555556

You doubled it again to get to -0.1111111111
link to original post



Thank you! This is what happens when I try to do things quickly, plus I had three different text exchanges going on.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
unJon
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September 22nd, 2022 at 7:15:48 AM permalink
Quote: GenoDRPh

With a break even at 1/6.23 and a +EV at 1/6.5 with no odds behind, and a +EV with max odds at 1/6.03, maybe this isn't outlandish after all....

Gene
link to original post



Shows how little casinos are actually worried about it. If you could really do 1/6.5 for the sevens, I show a 17% player advantage playing 3/4/5 max odds.

(Note I still don’t think this analysis is accurate with the assumption of ratably increasing the probability of all non-7 numbers. But whatever.)
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
Mission146
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September 22nd, 2022 at 7:34:50 AM permalink
Quote: unJon

Quote: Mission146


Thus, on a bet of one unit, we have an expected gain of 11.1111% looking at the Come Out roll in isolation.

The point being established, we only care about sevens and that point number. With that, we have the following expected losses in the following cases:

Point of Six or Eight: (5/11 - 6/11) * 2 = --0.18182

Point of Five or Nine: (4/10 - 6/10) * 2 = -.4

Point of Four or Ten: (3/9) - (6/9) * 2 = -0.66667

Finally, to get our total expected loss from each situation, we must multiply by the probability of that situation occurring on the CO roll:

Point of Six or Eight: -.18182 * .277778 = -0.050506

Point of Five or Nine: -.4 * .22222 = -0.088888

Point of Four or Ten: -.66667 * .16667 = -0.111111

Now, we just total these losses and then subtract the result from our Come Out advantage:

.111111 - (.050506 + .088888 + .111111) = -0.139394 (Error is due to rounding)



Quote truncated. Take the 4/10 calculation where you’ve doubled the HE impact. I think you doubled it twice when you combined 4 and 10 for convenience.

Contribution from the 4 is:

3/36 * (3/9 - 6/9) = -0.0277777

So contribution for 4/10 is double that: -0.05555556

You doubled it again to get to -0.1111111111
link to original post



I wanted to thank you again for finding this and I also like your formula that just combines the whole thing, instead.

To all: Please note that I am in the process of editing my earlier post which will contain the following disclaimer:

Quote:

DISCLAIMER: THIS POST HAS BEEN SUBSTANTIALLY EDITED TO REMOVE MISTAKES DUE TO GOING TOO FAST AND ALSO THE FACT THAT I AM AN IDIOT.

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
Mission146
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September 22nd, 2022 at 8:06:24 AM permalink
Please find below me being slightly less of an idiot:

Quote: Mission146

Quote: GenoDRPh

So as not to hijack an existing thread, here's a hypothetical:

A DI practitioner claims to be able to throw the dice and reduce a probability of a seven rolling from 1 in 6 to 1 in 8.

How does that change the HE on a 1 unit pass line bet with no odds if there is no point established? How does the HE change with a decrease in chance of come out roll wins, but increase in chance of come out roll loses, and increased chance of points being established.

How does that change the HE on a 1 unit pass line bet with no odds if there is a point established? How does the HE change due to a decrease in chance of seven out, an increase in chance of making the point, and an increase in chance of a push?

Feel free to assume either the probability of the other number combinations increase equally, or increase in proportion of their existing probabilities. Ideally, an analyses of both assumptions would be ideal.

Gene
link to original post



DISCLAIMER: THIS POST HAS BEEN SUBSTANTIALLY EDITED TO REMOVE MISTAKES DUE TO GOING TOO FAST AND ALSO THE FACT THAT I AM AN IDIOT.

First of all, I apologize for the delay, but my big project took a little longer than anticipated.

Secondly, I'm going to answer this, but I do want to somewhat modify the parameters. The key to being a good snake oil salesman is that the product you are offering must superficially sound viable, with that, I think 1 in 8 sevens is entirely too high. It wouldn't even take a very large sample of tosses to prove it is mathematically unlikely that the claimant does that long-term, so I seriously doubt anyone would even make that claim.

Superficially, it looks like just a 4.1% change of outcome, but look at it over 100 rolls with 12.5 (actual) compared to 16.6 (normally expected) and that example would be saying that it effectively reduces the frequency of sevens by about 25%.

What I am going to do is reduce this to a more reasonable 1 in 6.5, which would change the expected percentage from 16.6667% to about 15.3846%.

The second modification I am going to make is that we are just going to assume that the CO roll is thrown such as to not change anything vis-a-vis the long-term probabilities. After all, a PL bet enjoys its only advantage (in terms of probability of winning as opposed to losing) on the CO anyway. Now, one might argue, "But, I try to roll more sevens on the CO, but I don't care," since this is all hypothetical anyway.

The one thing that I am keeping is that we will treat the increase to other combinations as equal. I get that dice influencers say they are trying to hit certain other numbers with greater frequency, but in the non-hypothetical world, we have yet to see any actual mathematical evidence to back the assertion that they can even reduce sevens, much less increase the probability of other numbers.

With that, the probabilities on the CO are:

Snake Eyes: 2.7778%
Three: 5.5556%
Four: 8.3333%
Five: 11.1111%
Six: 13.8889%
Seven: 16.6667%
Eight: 13.8889%
Nine: 11.1111%
Ten: 8.3333%
Yo: 5.5556%
Midnight: 2.7778%

Okay, so what we have are the following:

Immediate Loss: 11.1111%
Immediate Win: 22.2222%
Point Established (4, 10): 16.6667%
Points Established (5,9): 22.2222%
Point Established (6, 8) 27.7778%

Any Point Established: 66.6667%

Therefore, our expectation on the Pass Line bet (taken alone) is simply:

.222222 - .111111 = .111111

Thus, on a bet of one unit, we have an expected gain of 11.1111% looking at the Come Out roll in isolation.

The point being established, we only care about sevens and that point number. With that, we have the following expected losses based on the probability of arriving at that Point Number (via the CO) to begin with and then comparing to sevens:

Point of Four or Ten: 3/36 * (3/9 - 6/9) = -0.02777777777 * 2 = -0.05555555555

Point of Five or Nine: 4/36 * (4/10 - 6/10) = -0.02222222222 * 2 = -.00444444444

Point of Six or Eight: 5/36 * (5/11 - 6/11) = -0.01262626262 * 2 = -0.02525252525

Now, we just total these losses and then subtract the result from our Come Out advantage:

.111111 - (.0555555555555 + .0444444444444 + .02525252525) = -0.01414152524

Thus, reflecting the House Edge of the Pass Line of about 1.414%.

That's the Pass Line bet in a nutshell.

Okay, so what we want to do is reduce the odds of a seven to 1 in 6.5 rather than 1 in 6, which will result in the following probability shift:

(1/6) - (1/6.5) = 0.01282051282

Okay, so we want sevens to decrease by that and everything else to increase proportionately. It's important to note that, given the intended impact of dice setting, these things are not meant to increase proportionately to one another, but there's really no way to measure the success rate of something that has not been demonstrated to be successful in the first place. For that reason, we can't know the exact probabilities of what should shift away from sevens to other numbers.

Also, we have taken away from sevens, so we do not want to add to sevens. For that reason, what we will do is take this change in percentage and multiply it by the fact that the sevens must also be something else and then add those together.

0.01282051282 + (0.01282051282 * 1/6) = 0.01495726495

With that out of the way, we simply multiply our other results' normal probabilities by the above, then add what the probability would normally be into that, and hopefully, the sum of all probabilities after we have done so will be something very close to 1.

Snake Eyes: 2.7778%---> (1/36 * 0.01495726495) + 1/36 = 0.02819325735
Three: 5.5556%---> (2/36 * 0.01495726495) + 2/36 = 0.05638651471
Four: 8.3333%---> (3/36 * 0.01495726495) + 3/36 = 0.08457977207
Five: 11.1111%---> (4/36 * 0.01495726495) + 4/36 = 0.11277302943
Six: 13.8889%---> (5/36 * 0.01495726495) + 5/36 = 0.14096628679
Seven: 16.6667--->0.15384615384
Eight: 13.8889%---> 0.14096628679
Nine: 11.1111%---> 0.11277302943
Ten: 8.3333%---> 0.08457977207
Yo: 5.5556%---> 0.05638651471
Midnight: 2.7778%---> 0.02819325735

SUM: 0.02819325735 + 0.02819325735 + 0.05638651471 + 0.05638651471 + 0.08457977207 + 0.08457977207 + 0.11277302943 + 0.11277302943 + 0.14096628679 + 0.14096628679 + 0.15384615384 = 0.99964387454

I'd assume this is slightly off of one due to rounding. It's certainly a hell of a lot closer than it was last time.

Okay, so now what we will do is look at our situations the same way, so we only care about those numbers and seven.

Four or Ten + Seven Combined Probability:

0.08457977207 + 0.15384615384 = 0.23842592591

Four and Ten Solved:

(0.08457977207/0.23842592591) - (0.15384615384/0.23842592591) = -0.29051530996 * 6/36 = -0.04841921832

Five and Nine Combined Probability:

0.15384615384 + 0.11277302943 = 0.26661918327

Five and Nine Solved:

(0.11277302943/.26661918327) - (0.15384615384/.26661918327) = -0.15405164739 * 8/36 = -0.03423369942

Six and Eight Combined Probability:

0.15384615384 + 0.14096628679 = 0.29481244063

Six and Eight Solved:

(.14096628679/.29481244063) - (.15384615384/.29481244063) = -0.04368834307 * 10/36 = -0.01213565085

As we can see, the disadvantage of these situations has been reduced due to the reduced frequency of sevens thus necessitating an increased frequency of these other numbers. Will it change our results overall to an expected positive, let's find out:

.111111 - 0.04841921832 - 0.03423369942 - 0.0121356085 = 0.01632247376

The result is a player advantage of 1.632247376%, which would be even more insurmountable than the, 'Normal,' disadvantage on the Pass Line bet is over the long-term.

Also, keep in mind we made the following other assumptions:

1.) We roll, 'Normally,' on the Come Out.

2.) While we reduce the frequency of sevens to 1 in 6.5, we are not disproportionately increasing the frequency of other numbers. This is important to note because people who purport to be dice influencers will often state that they are trying for sixes and eights. Since nobody has ever demonstrated that they can reduce the frequency of sevens to 1 in 6.5, much less demonstrated what doing so will increase their expected sixes and eights to, I really don't care.

3.) This is Pass Line only. If you want to know what this does to Odds Bets, it would be trivial to incorporate the Odds into what I have already done. Alternatively, I can always do so later.*

*Obviously, given the above assumptions, Odds bets would be made at an advantage if you could reduce the frequency of sevens (without reducing the frequency of the desired number) at all.

DISCLAIMER: THIS POST HAS BEEN SUBSTANTIALLY EDITED TO REMOVE MISTAKES DUE TO GOING TOO FAST AND ALSO THE FACT THAT I AM AN IDIOT.
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https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
Mission146
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September 22nd, 2022 at 8:09:05 AM permalink
Quote: unJon

I get a player edge of 1.6459% on a flat passline if you roll sevens 1/6 of the time on come out and 1/6.5 of the time after. Assuming the extra probability is spread among the other outcomes ratably.*

Breakeven on no odds passline I get 1/6.23 of the time 7.

Mission I don’t know where you messed up (or if I messed up, but I just double checked my Excel).

* As I said in my first (possibly unintelligible) post in this thread, I don’t think raising the probability of rolling other numbers is the right way to analyze the issue. For instance, if the DI in theory was setting so to get a 1 and 6 not to show one of the die, and was semi-successful in that, then the chance of a 2 or 12 would of course fall also, in addition to the chance of 7. And the chance of other numbers would increase more than ratably.
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I'm getting a Player Edge of 1.632247376%, but it could just be rounding, at this point. Thank you again for all of the help! In trying to go fast, I made the equations needlessly complicated and ended up just confusing myself.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
Mission146
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September 22nd, 2022 at 8:34:48 AM permalink
Player Edge for Odds

With the Pass Line out of the way and our methodology (I hope) down, we can calculate the Player Edge or remaining House Edge for Odds.

ODDS BETS

This is easy as it just requires changing one part of our formulas to reflects the Odds Payout:

Odds for Four and Ten:

((0.08457977207/0.23842592591)*2) - (0.15384615384/0.23842592591) = 0.06422703504

The above reflects the advantage on the Odds Bet taken alone. For its influence on a, "Per Come Out," basis, simply multiply the above by the overall probability of occurrence based on the CO, which is 6/36:

0.06422703504 * 6/36 = 0.01070450584

That is the advantage per Come Out roll given the potential for being able to make the Odds Bet. As we have previously established, the player is at an overall advantage anyway. The new Expected Value of a Point of Four Established that we determined is -0.04841921832, so our expectation on Single Odds is insufficient to offset that, 3x/4x/5x odds also wouldn't, because this would be the 3x, but it becomes offset and overall profitable EVEN WITH THIS POINT HAVING BEEN ESTABLISHED at 5x Odds.

Odds for Five and Nine:

((0.11277302943/.26661918327)*3/2) - (0.15384615384/.26661918327) = 0.05743544075

The above reflects the advantage on the Odds Bet taken alone. For its influence on a, "Per Come Out," basis, simply multiply the above by the overall probability of occurrence based on the CO, which is 8/36:

0.05743544075 * 8/36 = 0.01276343127

As we can see, our expectation for Single Odds is slightly greater in this scenario, which makes sense, because trying to Make a Point of 5 or 9 is not as bad of a situation relative to 4/10 to begin with. With regard to the Pass Line bet, -0.03423369942 is the new expected loss of a Point of Five or Nine established given the adjusted probabilities. With that, any Odds greater than 2x Odds would turn a point of five or nine established profitable.

Odds for Six and Eight:

((.14096628679/.29481244063)*6/5) - (.15384615384/.29481244063) = 0.05194282261

With that, we multiply that by the probability of even being the Point Number and get:

0.05194282261 * 10/36 = 0.01442856183

Six and Eight becomes positive even with single odds as our new expected loss of these points established is -0.01213565085, which is less than our positive expected outcome from the Odds Bet. Therefore, in addition to just winning on the Come Out roll, having a Come Out roll of six or eight has positive expected value if we are able to take any Odds whatsoever.

The reason that 6/8 becomes better (with odds) than 5/9 followed by 5/9 being better than 4/10 is because of these changed probabilities in the first place.

Once again, dice influencing proponents will argue that sixes and eights will increase out of proportion to other numbers given the reduced amount of sevens, but once again, nobody has ever demonstrated that they can knock the frequency of sevens down to 1 in 6.5 rolls, so I really don't care.

However, when we assume that the frequency of sevens has dropped so, then because numbers such as six and eight are more likely to begin with, they ultimately end up with a greater percentage of the roll frequency that was taken away from sevens. For that reason, single odds would produce an advantage on 6/8, at least 3x odds to produce an advantage on 5/9 and starting at 5x Odds for Points of four and ten.

With that all considered, if you were at a table upon which you could take 5x Odds, 10x Odds, or something even more than that...and again assuming you could roll sevens with a frequency of 1 in 6.5, or less often, then every single roll of the dice would see you at an advantage. Recall, just rolling the dice, 'Randomly,' you have an advantage on the Come Out roll to begin with.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
GenoDRPh
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September 22nd, 2022 at 1:35:24 PM permalink
Quote: unJon

Quote: GenoDRPh

With a break even at 1/6.23 and a +EV at 1/6.5 with no odds behind, and a +EV with max odds at 1/6.03, maybe this isn't outlandish after all....

Gene
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Shows how little casinos are actually worried about it. If you could really do 1/6.5 for the sevens, I show a 17% player advantage playing 3/4/5 max odds.

(Note I still don’t think this analysis is accurate with the assumption of ratably increasing the probability of all non-7 numbers. But whatever.)
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Would you be willing to show your work?

Gene
unJon
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September 22nd, 2022 at 1:40:15 PM permalink
Quote: GenoDRPh

Quote: unJon

Quote: GenoDRPh

With a break even at 1/6.23 and a +EV at 1/6.5 with no odds behind, and a +EV with max odds at 1/6.03, maybe this isn't outlandish after all....

Gene
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Shows how little casinos are actually worried about it. If you could really do 1/6.5 for the sevens, I show a 17% player advantage playing 3/4/5 max odds.

(Note I still don’t think this analysis is accurate with the assumption of ratably increasing the probability of all non-7 numbers. But whatever.)
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Would you be willing to show your work?

Gene
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Yes but will be about a week. I’m traveling and want to check it. I see Mission posted Odds calculations above. Haven’t reviewed if it’s consistent with mine.

ETA Also just occurred to me the 17% was based on the $1 pass line bet. That’s not really right as you have more at risk once you put your odds out there. So it will come down a bunch.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
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