prozema
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June 16th, 2017 at 6:55:07 PM permalink
Sometimes random thoughts pop into my head. Here is one that disturbed me a bit.

- all people have two parents.
- so 2 parents, 4 grandparents, 8 great grandparents, and the pattern continues
- so I can calculate my total number of ancestors using algebra. 2^X (two to the x power) where X is the number of generations.

So if I assume generations are 30 years apart and I wanted to go back 1,500 years, I could calculate my number of ancestors by 2^50. (two to the 50th power). That's over 1,000,000,000,000,000 people.

The problem with that is there were not that many people on Earth then (or now for that matter)

Kinda freaky right?!? Lots of distant cousins having kids!

Am I thinking about this right?
If this is anywhere in the neighborhood of right, how would you calculate the probably of:

1. Any given two people being related.
2. Everyone on this board being related.

Thanks
onenickelmiracle
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June 16th, 2017 at 7:12:46 PM permalink
Just watched a YouTube video on this, your thoughts are correct. There are more ancestors than people ever alive. 100%. We'd need to find humans on another planet if we want new blood, that evolved independently from different shoots.
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prozema
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June 16th, 2017 at 7:19:30 PM permalink
Quote: onenickelmiracle

Just watched a YouTube video on this, your thoughts are correct. There are more ancestors than people ever alive. 100%. We'd need to find humans on another planet if we want new blood, that evolved independently from different shoots.



Maybe the question should have been what is the probably that I thought of something before someone else posted a YouTube video about it... Apparently it's pretty close to 0%

:-/
prozema
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June 16th, 2017 at 7:27:03 PM permalink
Quote: onenickelmiracle

. 100%.



Do you mean there is a 100% chance everyone is related? If so, that doesn't feel right. I could see calculus dictating the limit is 100 percent but a limit and a probably are distinct concepts.
Doc
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June 16th, 2017 at 7:56:29 PM permalink
If you were to subscribe to the concept that it all started with the equivalent of Adam and Eve (even if you don't subscribe to the religious aspects), then it would indeed seem 100% likely that we are all related.
prozema
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June 16th, 2017 at 8:22:21 PM permalink
Quote: Doc

If you were to subscribe to the concept that it all started with the equivalent of Adam and Eve (even if you don't subscribe to the religious aspects), then it would indeed seem 100% likely that we are all related.



I picked 1,500 years in an attempt to avoid creation stories / theories / religion debate. Maybe thats impossible?
billryan
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June 16th, 2017 at 8:44:09 PM permalink
If you go back 1500 years, you had people living in what is now Chile, people living on scattered Pacific Ocean Islands and folks living in Europe near or north of the Artic Circle. I'm pretty sure they would be more than distant cousins of each other.

Another flaw in your theory is generations back then were more like 15 years apart, not 30. Women had children as soon as they were able to. By thirty, they were grandmothers.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
prozema
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June 16th, 2017 at 8:44:41 PM permalink
Maybe this is a spatial problem?

For example, If I live in international falls MN, there is a lower probability that I'm related to someone in Nogales Mexico relative to Winnipeg Canada.

If that's the case, highway intersection, tourism, and airport hubs, and language barriers matter.

Based on that, it might be possible that it's more likely I'm related to everyone reading this message than I am to a random person is some isolated tribe of indeginous people in the Amazon / African desert / abegerinese (sp?) / (insert another "A" word here) people?

Its counter intuitive that is more likely I'm related to a random group than another single individual...

The more I think about this, the more complex it becomes.
billryan
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June 16th, 2017 at 8:47:31 PM permalink
KISS!!!
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
onenickelmiracle
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June 16th, 2017 at 8:50:40 PM permalink
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=mnYSMhR3jCI

I hear you about feeling original hoping you are the first after a google search. I did a google search one time with no suggestions but can't remember what it was.
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prozema
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June 16th, 2017 at 9:01:23 PM permalink
Quote: onenickelmiracle

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=mnYSMhR3jCI

I hear you about feeling original hoping you are the first after a google search. I did a google search one time with no suggestions but can't remember what it was.



Great. Now, thanks to PBS I have to think about how genghis khan works into this mess.

I don't want to sound cocky... But I suppose the most you could say is that they framed the question better than I did. I don't see an answer to the probably analysis. The guy did mention spatial relationships for almost a half second... :-)
prozema
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June 16th, 2017 at 9:12:26 PM permalink
Quote: onenickelmiracle

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=mnYSMhR3jCI

I hear you about feeling original hoping you are the first after a google search. I did a google search one time with no suggestions but can't remember what it was.



Hold on a sec... He's getting 2^40 (40 generations ago) at 450 B.C. (2500 years ago). I'm getting 2^50 (50 generations ago) at 500 A.D.

I've had a few burbons tonight... What math did I do wrong?

If he's assuming 62 years between generations, I have concerns with that assumption.
prozema
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June 16th, 2017 at 9:19:38 PM permalink
Quote: billryan


Another flaw in your theory is generations back then were more like 15 years apart, not 30. Women had children as soon as they were able to. By thirty, they were grandmothers.



I picked 30 years to be conservative. I have kids, so I would like to think it's less probable my wife and I are related. :-)

Changing the assumption to 15 years would increase probably if I'm thinking about this right.

I'm trying to get a grip on how I would determine how much of a difference a change in that assumption would make.

Does that make sense?
prozema
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June 16th, 2017 at 9:22:02 PM permalink
Quote: billryan

KISS!!!



Please do not take offense, but if I kept it simple I'd just sit down at any random slot machine and spin hoping for the best. That's not what I do.
FinsRule
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June 17th, 2017 at 2:51:31 AM permalink
I don't think this is a math problem. It's an evolution problem. My guess is that people evolved in different areas of Earth. If that's the case, then everyone in the world is probably not related.
Wizard
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June 17th, 2017 at 9:59:01 AM permalink
I think this was asked about in a Straight Dope column once. I think the way the question was phrased is how many generations back would you maximize the number of distinct ancestors.

In my opinion, any two people are related if you go back far enough.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
AxelWolf
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June 17th, 2017 at 11:36:06 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard



In my opinion, any two people are related if you go back far enough.

Or you can just travel to West Virginia.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
MaxPen
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June 18th, 2017 at 12:21:34 AM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

Or you can just travel to West Virginia.



I heard there is 1 in 1.1 chance that people in WV are related. Sounds about right. How many last names are there in WV?

billryan
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June 18th, 2017 at 1:18:46 AM permalink
Quote: prozema

Please do not take offense, but if I kept it simple I'd just sit down at any random slot machine and spin hoping for the best. That's not what I do.




Think about this. In the British Isles, it was very rare for people to leave their villages, except to make the big journey to America. Things barely changed, lifestyle wise, for hundreds of years. A man born in a village of a few hundred would marry, have children and die. His children would marry someone from that village, have children and die. How long before everyone in the village is related to everyone else. These people had no transportation. How far can a man go, after working in a field or a mine to court a woman? Even if he walked two hours in each direction, that's about a seven mile radius. Poor people didn't have horses or carriages. They walked, until bicycles came along. With a bike, a man could venture maybe as far as 10 or 15 miles to find a wife.
My family comes from a rural area in Ireland. Same rules applied. Start going through geneology and you'll find my Fathers Uncle Mike is my Mothers cousin and that Aunt Mary on my moms side married Uncle Andrew on my Dads side and sometimes Aunt Ann on my moms side seems to have married Uncle Bill, who also is on my moms side of the family.
This is what happens when people produce large families in relatively small areas.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
onenickelmiracle
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June 18th, 2017 at 2:03:32 AM permalink
I saw in West Virginia a guy drive his riding mower to the gas station to get gas, filled up at the pump.
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Wizard
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June 18th, 2017 at 5:56:36 AM permalink
Why all the ragging on West Virginia? I had a look at average SAT scores by state and they came in 32nd out of 54 states and districts in combined SAT scores. Well ahead of my own Nevada at 43rd.

I hope Mission doesn't find this thread.

Rank State Critical Reading Mathematics Writing Total SAT score
1 Illinois 599 616 587 1802
2 North Dakota 597 608 586 1791
3 Michigan 594 609 585 1788
4 Minnesota 595 607 576 1778
5 Missouri 596 599 582 1777
6 Wisconsin 591 605 575 1771
7 Iowa 589 600 566 1755
8 Nebraska 589 590 576 1755
9 South Dakota 592 597 564 1753
10 Kentucky 588 587 574 1749
11 Kansas 588 592 568 1748
12 Wyoming 589 586 562 1737
13 Colorado 582 587 567 1736
14 Tennessee 581 574 568 1723
15 Mississippi 580 563 570 1713
16 Utah 579 575 554 1708
17 Oklahoma 576 569 548 1693
18 Arkansas 568 569 551 1688
19 Louisiana 563 559 553 1675
20 Ohio 557 563 537 1657
21 Montana 561 556 538 1655
22 New Mexico 551 544 528 1623
23 Alabama 545 538 533 1616
24 New Hampshire 525 530 511 1566
25 Vermont 523 524 507 1554
26 Arizona 523 527 502 1552
27 Massachusetts 516 529 507 1552
28 Oregon 523 521 502 1546
29 Virginia 518 516 499 1533
30 New Jersey 500 521 499 1520
31 Connecticut 504 506 504 1514
32 West Virginia 509 497 495 1501
33 Washington 502 510 484 1496
34 Alaska 509 503 482 1494
35 California 495 506 491 1492
36 Pennsylvania 499 504 482 1485
37 North Carolina 498 504 476 1478
38 Indiana 496 499 478 1473
39 Hawaii 487 508 477 1472
40 Rhode Island 494 494 484 1472
41 New York 489 502 478 1469
42 Maryland 491 493 478 1462
43 Nevada 494 494 470 1458
44 Georgia 490 485 475 1450
45 South Carolina 488 487 467 1442
46 Florida 486 480 468 1434
47 Texas 470 486 454 1410
48 Maine 468 473 451 1392
49 Idaho 467 463 442 1372
50 Delaware 462 461 445 1368
51 Puerto Rico 463 450 450 1363
52 District of Columbia 441 440 432 1313
53 Virgin Islands 414 388 412 1214
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
prozema
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June 18th, 2017 at 6:19:46 AM permalink
Missouri is at #5?!? BOOM... No, DOUBLE BOOM!
gordonm888
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June 18th, 2017 at 10:50:18 AM permalink
Several years ago,I heard a lecturer describe an international project concentrating on genetics in Iceland. They had picked Iceland because it is geographically isolated and have birth records usually extending back over 1,200 years.

- they said that they were able to determine that that the fraction of people who had been fathered by someone other than the father named on the birth certificate/record was about 1%!
- based on what I heard, they were able to identify the extent and genetic effect of Viking raiding parties on England, in which they captured good-looking women and brought them back to Iceland
- the lecturer added that he had recently been to England recently and had concluded that the Vikings must have taken all the good-looking ones years ago!!!

But, my impression is that there is a lot of inbreeding amongst populations that are geographically distinct - we mate with people who are close to home. So, the kind of statistics in the OP probably apply to geographically clustered populations for short periods of time (like Irishmen in Boston or the Japanese in Japan, etc.) but not to the entire population of the world.
So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.
gordonm888
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June 18th, 2017 at 10:57:23 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Why all the ragging on West Virginia? I had a look at average SAT scores by state and they came in 32nd out of 54 states and districts in combined SAT scores. Well ahead of my own Nevada at 43rd.



One problem with this list is that most college applicants in the southern states take the ACTs -not the SATs. I live in the South and in my experience the only students who take the SATs are those who are applying to schools outside the South (particularly the Northeast and upper Midwest) -and I suspect that these are an atypical sample group who are brighter and more ambitious about education. In other words, I think that the average scores of Southern states (like my own) are not representative because they are skewed to be too high.

It would be interesting to check the state rankings on the ACTs and see if it were different.
So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.
Wizard
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June 18th, 2017 at 11:38:56 AM permalink
Quote: gordonm888

One problem with this list is that most college applicants in the southern states take the ACTs -not the SATs.



Very good point. It also only looks at those applying for college in the first place.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
AxelWolf
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June 18th, 2017 at 12:10:37 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Why all the ragging on West Virginia? I had a look at average SAT scores by state and they came in 32nd out of 54 states and districts in combined SAT scores. Well ahead of my own Nevada at 43rd.

I hope Mission doesn't find this thread.

What's that have to do with inbreeding? Should we give them the green light if we could prove it leads to higher SAT scores?



If you get married in West Virginia then move to Las Vegas and get a divorce are you still considered brother and sister?

I will be sure to send Mission a link.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
billryan
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June 18th, 2017 at 12:24:56 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Very good point. It also only looks at those applying for college in the first place.



Is that true? I don't recall the SAT being voluntary. I remember you could take it over again if you weren't happy with the score, but I remember taking it with some kids that weren't college bound.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
Wizard
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June 18th, 2017 at 2:40:09 PM permalink
Quote: billryan

Is that true? I don't recall the SAT being voluntary. I remember you could take it over again if you weren't happy with the score, but I remember taking it with some kids that weren't college bound.



Why would anyone bother taking it who wasn't college bound? When I was in high school the SAT definitely was voluntary, as I assume it is now. Its my understanding it doesn't carry the same weight as it did when I graduated high school in 83 where pretty much every college required it and used it as about 50% of the criteria for admission. Today there are a lot more paths leading to college admission but I imagine most college bound applicants at least take it, in the anticipating of using it if they did well and using other paths if they didn't.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
Doc
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June 18th, 2017 at 4:21:53 PM permalink
Quote: gordonm888

I think that the average scores of Southern states (like my own) are not representative because they are skewed to be too high.


If that were true for all of the southern states, I think it would be quite damning, what with Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, and Texas all ranked 37th or worse. I think the curious thing about southern state rankings in this list is the fact that Kentucky, Tennessee, Mississippi, Arkansas, and Louisiana are all ranked in the top 20. Perhaps it is that cluster to which gordonm888 was referring.
socks
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June 18th, 2017 at 6:03:23 PM permalink
Quote: gordonm888

One problem with this list is that most college applicants in the southern states take the ACTs -not the SATs.



This may have changed, but I don't think that was the case in the 90s. I don't know of anyone at my old high school(in SC) who took the ACT. Duke's Talent Identification Program ran exclusively off the SAT as well.
Wizard
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June 18th, 2017 at 7:08:47 PM permalink
Quote: socks

This may have changed, but I don't think that was the case in the 90s. I don't know of anyone at my old high school(in SC) who took the ACT. Duke's Talent Identification Program ran exclusively off the SAT as well.



All I can say is that for 1983 graduates, like me, not many kids took the ACT. I had the impression it was something certain schools liked to see but the California colleges, which were all I cared about, didn't really care about that test. Maybe a good score would have helped in a borderline case. My older daughter graduated from high school two years ago and judging from what the guidance counselor said, it was almost on part with the SAT in terms of significance and most students took both the SAT and ACT.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
billryan
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June 18th, 2017 at 7:18:11 PM permalink
ACT used to be very regional. I spoke to someone from my high school today and they don't remember the SAT as being optional, but it was a long time ago and almost everyone from my school was expected to go to college.
I know that in order to get a Regents Diploma, one had to take the PSAT and score a minimum grade. I think it was 200, but the scoring in the 1970s was very different than today.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
RogerKint
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June 18th, 2017 at 10:57:45 PM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

What's that have to do with inbreeding? Should we give them the green light if we could prove it leads to higher SAT scores?



If you get married in West Virginia then move to Las Vegas and get a divorce are you still considered brother and sister?

I will be sure to send Mission a link.



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