A different view....
Quote: mrjjjHey guys, what do you think of this idea? I'm going to record 25 numbers and then flat bet on any number with two hits on it for the next 13 spins. I really think I have an ADVANTAGE betting this way! What do you think of this idea guys?
No - you do not have an advantage. Those numbers are no better or worse than any other numbers you could have picked. The fact they have hit twice in the past 25 spins has no bearing on whether or not they will hit in the next 13 spins.
Caveat: We are assuming a non-biased, totally random wheel.
This is a much more unambiguous question, and phrased properly.
Quote: mrjjj"The fact they have hit twice in the past 25 spins has no bearing on whether or not they will hit in the next 13 spins" >>> OMG, I'm gonna put one round in my head, I cant take it. Ken
If play Russian Roulette and won the last five times, what are the chances I will win on the sixth attempt?
Quote: mrjjj"The fact they have hit twice in the past 25 spins has no bearing on whether or not they will hit in the next 13 spins" >>> OMG, I'm gonna put one round in my head, I cant take it. Ken
YES or NO question Ken:
Do you believe the past 25 numbers influence the results over the next 13 spins?
YES or NO, please.
Quote: scotty81YES or NO question Ken:
Do you believe the past 25 numbers influence the results over the next 13 spins?
YES or NO, please.
You hound everyone to answer your questions with a simple YES or NO. I have done so.
Don't you think we deserve the courtesy of a response in kind?
Answer the question, Ken.
Quote: mrjjj"Do you believe the past 25 numbers influence the results over the next 13 spins?" >>> You have to watch your wording. If I have to, you must as well. MAY influence, its not 100% fact. Also, looking at the numbers with two hits on them, I say yes. The rest, I dont know....0 hits, 1 hit, 4 hits. Ken
My last post was prior to this. Thanks for the answer, although I don't know how I could have been more clear (watch my wording?)
So, there you have it folks. Ken says YES - past roulette results DO influence future spins.
I say they don't.
The burden of proof is on.....whom?
Maybe we should start a poll....
Quote: scotty81
Do you believe the past 25 numbers influence the results over the next 13 spins?
YES or NO, please.
scotty81 votes NO
mrjjj votes YES
ericayne votes NO
Don't you think we deserve the courtesy of a response in kind?" >>> How many questions (other than me) are asked of you? I am bouncing around on 6 different boards answering 400 different posts. Is that equal? Ken
Quote: mrjjj"Do you believe the past 25 numbers influence the results over the next 13 spins?" >>> This is not worded correctly, big surprise. Ken
How is it not worded correctly?
Look at a roulette wheel. The entire experience is designed to create randomness. In a 00 wheel, you will lose 5.26 percent of your average bet, over time.
If the number has hit twice in the last 25 times, the odds that it will hit in the next 13 spins is 1-(37/38)^13 = .292974.
If the number has hit 24 times in the last 25 spins, the odds that it will hit on the next spin is still 1/38.
Caveat: Given there is no cheating, bias, or dealer collusion going on.
Quote: mrjjjI said, in certain cases and I said MAY (not DO), its not 100% fact. Ken
I'm kind of curious what these "certain cases" are. Humidity? Stars aligning? Croupier winks at you?
If the number has hit 24 times in the last 25 spins, the odds that it will hit on the next spin is still 1/38. >>> So again, what about the LAST 25 spins data as part of the betting process for the next 13 spins? Would I have any advantage choosing or not choosing 3 particular numbers? Afterall, its still gonna be 1-(37/38)^, correct? Ken
I challenge you: When have I every asked you the same question twice?
You never answered my question:
How is my statement not worded correctly?
Quote: mrjjj"Ken says YES - past roulette results DO influence future spins" >>> I didn't say that. PLEASE be more careful when you quote. I said, in certain cases and I said MAY (not DO), its not 100% fact.
LOL!!! What kind of answer is that???? MAY influence??
Can you explain what "certain cases" would trigger you to start flat betting??
Can you explain in what cases would past roulette results influence future spins?
And in which cases past roulette results DO NOT influence future spins?
<<<<Hey guys, what do you think of this idea? I'm going to record 25 numbers and then flat bet on any number with two hits on it for the next 13 spins. I really think I have an ADVANTAGE betting this way! What do you think of this idea guys? Your answer is.......?>>>>
My answer is...i don't think you have an advantage betting this way.
What do i think of this idea? It's alright.
Quote: mrjjj"Ken says YES - past roulette results DO influence future spins" >>> I didn't say that. PLEASE be more careful when you quote. I said, in certain cases and I said MAY (not DO), its not 100% fact. Ken
That's clearer. However, it is the intent of the casino operating the wheel, as well as the manufacturer thereof, that in no cases should past results influence future spins. Casinos rely upon this independence to run their game properly. Moreover, if a fairly-run casino detects that spin interdependence is occurring, they will promptly take down the wheel. There are at least two vendors which sell bias-tracking and correlation systems for roulette tables.
Quote: mrjjjSo again, what about the LAST 25 spins data as part of the betting process for the next 13 spins? Would I have any advantage choosing or not choosing 3 particular numbers? Afterall, its still gonna be 1-(37/38)^, correct? Ken
There is no advantage in picking any three numbers over any other three numbers.
Talk about answering the same question multiple times.
There is NO advantage.
If you disagree with me, fine. Defend it.
But, don't just keep asking the same damn question over and over again.
Quote: mrjjjIf the number has hit twice in the last 25 times, the odds that it will hit in the next 13 spins is 1-(37/38)^13 = .292974.
In what way does the differ from the chances of any other number?
Quote: mrjjjYa just dont get it. I am NOT asking if you believe in my view. I am NOT asking that. I am asking, between the two choices, which do YOU YOU YOU YOU YOU believe in? I have asked the question around 8 times. Let me guess..."What question Ken, can you ask it again"? (sigh)
Again, nobody else agrees with your view. Your view is too stupid to be real. Everybody else here is arguing the opposite side of the point. It's pretty amazing that you can hold your view and still function in society. Do you have any other outlandish beliefs that we should know about? What do you do when you cross a black cat? Walk under a ladder? Break a mirror?
Quote: mrjjj"nobody else agrees with your view" >>> Lets try this again, shall we? I am not asking regarding MY view, I dont care. I am asking YOU, what your view is. Forget it came from me. Pretend Jesus came down and asked for your view. It would be......? Try not to be a coward, its a SIMPLE choice/question. Ken
OK, I thought this would be easy, but I guess it isn't. Let me write it out.
Either past spins affect future spins or they don't. You think they do. Everyone else thinks they don't. Therefore, everyone else disagrees with your view. Since you have an established position, saying that we disagree with you is EXACTLY THE SAME as saying that we disagree with your position.
A) Past numbers mean NOTHING, they are of NO USE. Even those first 25 spins like I mentioned for the challenge. The past means NOTHING !!
B) It is an unfair challenge Ken. After those first 25 spins, I pick MY 3 numbers for 13 spins (2 hits on them) and I pick YOUR 3 numbers (0 hits on them) for 13 spins (flat betting). A trial of 30 times, 38 numbers per.
Quote: mrjjj"nobody else agrees with your view" >>> Lets try this again, shall we? I am not asking regarding MY view, I dont care. I am asking YOU, what your view is. Forget it came from me. Pretend Jesus came down and asked for your view. It would be......? Try not to be a coward, its a SIMPLE choice/question. Ken
Am I missing something here?
Thank the almighty Lord for gamblers fallacy! I owe ya one J.C.
"For the love of money is the root of all evil: which while some coveted after, they have erred from the faith, and
pierced themselves through with many sorrows" (I Timothy 6:10).
Is J.C. helping you break the rules?
