Need help calculating the EV of this strategy

Ok, lets say I found a casino that lets you play table minimum on three hands of blackjack, and the table minimum is $5. $5 equals 1 unit.

Im alone at the table. I'm playing 6 deck game with one deck pen.

Dealer is dealing at this pace:

1 player: 248 rounds
2 players: 158
3 players: 116


My EV is 5 units per 100 rounds playing one handed.
I have advantage 20% of time and raise my bet up accordingly.
I bet table min on all low counts the other 80% of time.



What's my EV per 100 rounds if I spread to three bets of 1 unit on all low counts and raise my bet up on one hand in high counts?

In order for anyone to calculate that, or run a simulation, you'd have to be more specific than, "Raise my bet up accordingly."

Ok lets say I make my bet 10 units on all high counts.

Lets also say the 5 units per 100 hands is profit just from the high counts (it doesn't take into consideration the loss from low counts.)

What will be EV per 100 hands be just from the high counts (ignore loss on low counts) using the new strategy"?

Quote: Swanson234

Ok lets say I make my bet 10 units on all high counts.

And the cutoff between medium and high is? And the count you're using is?

Actually I think I solved this.....


You get 248 rounds one handed and 116 rounds in three handed.

You get 2.14 rounds in one handed for every round you get in three handed.

I bet three handed 80% of time (bet three handed on all low counts) and 80% of my 5 unit EV is 4 units.

4*2.14 =8.28. 8.28+1=9.28 units

Answer is 9.28 units per 100 hands. I'd net 9.28 units per 100 hands from the high counts (ignoring the low counts)

Does this look right?



Sorry about the way I asked the question. I entered a couple of parameters that were irrelevant to the equation (I.e. units =$5, deck pen = one deck cut off). Also I meant to ask just what the EV on the positive counts was. Lol sorry, wasn't purposefully trying to confuse. I m posting from an iPhone and it's a pain to edit so I often don't bother.

Nope think my math is wrong.

You get 348 hands in an hour 3 handed play.

248 hands an hour one handed.

Speed of three handed game is 348/248= 1.4 times more hands per hour - or could say game is 1.4 times faster during low counts.

Since you re playing the game 1.4 times faster 80% (low counts) of the game, 80% of your EV increases by 1.4.

.8 * 5 = 4. 4 * 1.4 = 5.6. 5.6 + 1 = 6.6.

I'd net 6.6 units per 100 hands from the high counts (-EV on low counts ignored)

Playing more hands eats more cards. It changes the number of "high counts" you get (since it can transition from low to high and back to low in the playing of 3 hands).

These things interact in subtle ways. IMO, there is no way that you can figure this out without a simulation.

Actually I just came across this old post from blackjackinfo showing sim information based on the exact same play style.

http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showthread.php?t=6086

What a delightful scam. Or should I say SPAM ?

Yah, ZG at top of game including long-winded posting. Before my time even.

So the sim doesn't hold up?