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Ron44
Ron44
Joined: Aug 22, 2019
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August 23rd, 2019 at 5:55:29 AM permalink
OnceDear, Thank you for sharing. You are right, playing baccarat at minimum flat bets would be boring. On progression 1-2-3-3-3, after the 5th win would you stay at 3 units or go back to 2 units or to 1 unit or increase to 4 units? Thanks again.
Ron44
Ron44
Joined: Aug 22, 2019
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August 23rd, 2019 at 6:07:10 AM permalink
kubikulann, It is amazing how much bad information is out there. Lots of blogs and you tube videos tell you to wait for streaks and to ignore chops. They also suggest that one should look for hand shuffle games that shuffle near the end of a shoe. Thank you and good luck.
7craps
7craps
Joined: Jan 23, 2010
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August 23rd, 2019 at 9:18:21 AM permalink
Quote: Ron44

$bet probability for $1000 bankroll flat bet PLAYER. one with $1100 win goal and one with $1200 win goal? Thank you.

$1000 bankroll
These tables are from using the Gambler's Ruin formula
there is a lot more to this as one should consider time it takes to ruin or target.
example:
[1] "in money: stake:$1000,target:$2000, wanted gain of $1000, flat betting:$100"
[1] "in units: stake:10, target of 20, gain of 10, flat betting 1"
> print(formatC(data, digits=9),quote=FALSE)
data
stake in units 10
p(goal) 0.432172666
p(ruin) 0.567827334
avg trials 109.841836

$1000 win goal
$betunitswin goaltarget unitstargetsuccess Prob
1000110002200049.318%
500210004200048.635%
2005100010200046.593%
10010100020200043.217%
5020100040200036.679%
2540100080200025.123%
20501000100200020.342%
10100100020020006.122%


$1100 win goal
$betunitswin goaltarget unitstargetsuccess Prob
1000111002.1210046.904%
500211004.2210046.191%
2005110010.5210044.058%
10010110021210040.549%
5020110042210033.822%
2540110084210022.233%
20501100105210017.590%
10100110021021004.655%


$1200 win goal
$betunitswin goaltarget unitstargetsuccess Prob
1000112002.2220044.711%
500212004.4220043.969%
2005120011220041.755%
10010120022220038.131%
5020120044220031.252%
2540120088220019.704%
20501200110220015.228%
10100120022022003.540%


$1500 win goal
$betunitswin goaltarget unitstargetsuccess Prob
1000115002.5250039.183%
500215005250038.370%
2005150012.5250035.961%
10010150025250032.069%
5020150050250024.910%
25401500100250013.815%
2050150012525009.937%
10100150025025001.558%


$2000 win goal
$betunitswin goaltarget unitstargetsuccess Prob
1000120003300032.428%
500220006300031.531%
2005200015300028.900%
10010200030300024.751%
5020200060300017.523%
2540200012030007.774%
2050200015030004.938%
10100200030030000.398%
Last edited by: 7craps on Aug 23, 2019
winsome johnny (not Win some johnny)
OnceDear
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OnceDear
Joined: Jun 1, 2014
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August 23rd, 2019 at 10:18:21 AM permalink
Quote: Ron44

OnceDear, Thank you for sharing. You are right, playing baccarat at minimum flat bets would be boring. On progression 1-2-3-3-3, after the 5th win would you stay at 3 units or go back to 2 units or to 1 unit or increase to 4 units? Thanks again.

My favoured 1,2,3,3,3 progression ( for amusement only ) means that my first bet and every bet after a win is 1 unit ( typically min bet ).

After the first time I lose a hand, I bet 2. If I lose that I bet 3. If I lose that, I bet 3 again until I win a hand.

It's not advocated as a system, but it amuses me more than flat betting.

Incidentally, I do not advocate taking too much advice from MDawg, with whom I ( and others) fervently disagree.
However, He fervently disagrees with me, so it's all fair and ultimately up to you to judge.
Beware. The earth is NOT flat. Hit and run is not a winning strategy: Pressing into trends IS not a winning strategy: Progressives are not a winning strategy: Don't Buy It! .Don't even take it for free.
Ron44
Ron44
Joined: Aug 22, 2019
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August 23rd, 2019 at 11:44:31 AM permalink
OnceDear, I realize that 1,2,3,3,3 is for amusement only. I will try to learn from both you and MDawg even though you tend to disagree.
Ron44
Ron44
Joined: Aug 22, 2019
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August 23rd, 2019 at 11:53:15 AM permalink
7craps, Thank you for your reply. I was not clear. My two win goals are $100 and $200 which would increase my starting $1000 bankroll to either $1100 or $1200 if I won. Please post the gamblers ruin results one more time. I apologize for the mix up.
7craps
7craps
Joined: Jan 23, 2010
  • Threads: 18
  • Posts: 1977
August 23rd, 2019 at 12:25:17 PM permalink
Quote: Ron44

Please post the gamblers ruin results one more time. I apologize for the mix up.


$betunitswin goaltarget unitstargetsuccess Prob
100011001.1110090.784%
50021002.2110090.659%
20051005.5110090.276%
1001010011110089.618%
502010022110088.232%
254010044110085.204%
205010055110083.583%
10100100110110074.861%
$betunitswin goaltarget unitstargetsuccess Prob
100012001.2120083.105%
50022002.4120082.875%
20052006120082.175%
1001020012120080.978%
502020024120078.478%
254020048120073.134%
205020060120070.345%
10100200120120056.273%
$betunitswin goaltarget unitstargetsuccess Prob
100013001.3130076.607%
50023002.6130076.289%
20053006.5130075.324%
1001030013130073.679%
502030026130070.273%
254030052130063.155%
205030065130059.536%
10100300130130042.431%
betunitswin goaltarget unitstargetsuccess Prob
100014001.4140071.038%
50024002.8140070.644%
20054007140069.453%
1001040014140067.432%
502040028140063.285%
254040056140054.813%
205040070140050.621%
10100400140140032.067%
$betunitswin goaltarget unitstargetsuccess Prob
100015001.5150066.211%
50025003150065.753%
20055007.5150064.367%
1001050015150062.028%
502050030150057.271%
254050060150047.775%
205050075150043.205%
10100500150150024.276%

I already had these...

one may be thrilled to see that winning $100 starting with $100 bets is about 90%
That is for the very 1st time.

want to win 10 sessions in a row? Hell YES!
0.9^10= about 34.9% or about 1 chance in 3 which is LESS THAN the 43% chance when playing just one session
turning $1k into $2k. something to think about.

BANKER bet does a bit better than PLAYER but the calculations are way more difficult and take more time.
winsome johnny (not Win some johnny)
OnceDear
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OnceDear
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August 23rd, 2019 at 12:29:02 PM permalink
Quote: Ron44

7craps, Thank you for your reply. I was not clear. My two win goals are $100 and $200 which would increase my starting $1000 bankroll to either $1100 or $1200 if I won. Please post the gamblers ruin results one more time. I apologize for the mix up.

Here again is my rule of thumb
https://wizardofvegas.com/member/oncedear/blog/5/#post1370

So, your probability of increasing your bankroll from $1,000 to $1,100 where you limit yourself to either success (and no possibility of more) or complete bankroll loss is roughly (a little less than) 1000/1100 = 90.9% If you gamble with a small number of large wagers, then it's close to that. If you try it with many small wagers, you expose more action to the house edge and your probability plummets. You can see that effect in the tables that you have been given even though they had misinterpreted your win goals.
My rule of thumb is less accurate than the ruin calcs you have been given. Those calcs rely on equal wagers
Beware. The earth is NOT flat. Hit and run is not a winning strategy: Pressing into trends IS not a winning strategy: Progressives are not a winning strategy: Don't Buy It! .Don't even take it for free.
Ron44
Ron44
Joined: Aug 22, 2019
  • Threads: 5
  • Posts: 28
August 23rd, 2019 at 1:13:47 PM permalink
OnceDear, Your rule of thumb makes sense. It is nice to think about getting rich at baccarat, but I realize that the chances are remote at best.
Ron44
Ron44
Joined: Aug 22, 2019
  • Threads: 5
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August 23rd, 2019 at 1:18:15 PM permalink
7craps, Your gamblers ruin tables are very helpful. Turning $1k into $2k is something to think about.

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