goatcabin
Joined: Feb 13, 2010
• Posts: 659
November 5th, 2010 at 12:16:58 PM permalink
Quote: mkl654321

I think we differ more in terminology than in points of view.

Obviously, a player can win, not only DESPITE engaging in progressive betting, but actually BECAUSE of doing that. However, it is more likely (assuming a -EV game) that increasing bet amounts will result in a WORSE outcome (than if the player had continued making the same size bets) than it is that the bet increases will result in a BETTER outcome. I assume we agree on that---that's simple probability mathematics at work.

Absolutely. At any point in time and bankroll, if you increase your bet and the guy next to you doesn't, your expectation is "worse" than his (higher expected loss). OTOH, if you are making the same bets and have good luck, you will win more than the flat bettor, and that's what some people want, in full understanding of the consequences. Of course, that same reasoning should tell you never to start playing in the first place, because you're more likely to lose the next bet than win it (lay bets aside). People play for different reasons -- fun, excitement, cameraderie -- and the hope that they will win; it's not a forlorn hope, either, because of variance.

Quote: mkl654321

I have seen, time and time and time again, a player lose his entire bankroll--for the day, for the week, for his lifetime, whichever--because he/she adopted the "increase your bets when you're losing" method. And yes, I view it as a disaster if you were playing a game at a modest bet level that gave you virtually no chance of suffering a major loss, and then you suddenly went berserk in a misguided attempt to "get even" (misguided, especially because "getting even" is illusory anyway),

"Getting even" is not illusory, here again, for the individual player. You can get even for a session or for a lifetime, with different probabilities, of course.

Quote: mkl654321

and dumped your entire bankroll in ten minutes. Those are the people you see sitting morosely on the bench in the bus loading area, trying to kill the next five hours.

Perhaps. I have had sessions when I was down half my session bankroll and come back to have a winning session, and I didn't even increase my bets. If I had, I would have won even more. It's really the same issue as progressing when you're winning - if I increase my bets and win, I will come back quicker, but it's more likely that I will just lose faster. It's a choice the individual player should make in full knowledge of both sides of the coin.

Quote: mkl654321

I suppose that you and I view a "loss of bankroll" differently---you consider it pretty much inevitable, because everybody's playing -EV and that's like death and taxes: the only question is when, not if.

No, no, no!! It is NOT inevitable for any player. You persist in ignoring the difference between all players and individual players.

Quote: mkl654321

Since I'm primarily an AP, I view loss of bankroll as a disaster---it's working capital that you MUST preserve if you're going to win. I've known plenty of talented APs who overbet their bankroll, and went busted even though they had no real exposure to RoR--until they started playing at higher denominations/bet sizes.

That is the "other side of the coin". Obviously, if you believe you have an advantage, your outlook is going to be different; you do NOT want variance, because it increases your chance of losing, not of winning.

Quote: mkl654321

Of course, "the casinos always win" doesn't apply to individuals, but....so what?

So, individuals can win, that's what.
Cheers,
Alan Shank
Woodland, CA
Cheers, Alan Shank "How's that for a squabble, Pugh?" Peter Boyle as Mister Moon in "Yellowbeard"
ElectricDreams
Joined: Sep 8, 2010
• Posts: 194
November 5th, 2010 at 1:40:02 PM permalink
Quote: goatcabin

If you increase your bets, lose your profits and your starting bankroll, as well, is that a "disaster"? Is it any more of a "disaster" than if you never got ahead in the first place?

Yes, because you lost more of your money! As soon as the casino hands you that red chip, it's your money! If you want to bet more, that's fine, but if you bet more, you lose more!

This is also why I think the notion of "the casino's money" is a little silly too; the casino's money is in the racks, not your hands. Having the casino's money in your hands would be called "stealing".

Of course, to a certain extent this is all semantics, and I'll press my bets on occasion, if I'm feelin' lucky. I do realize I'm risking more of my bankroll, though.

Edit: woah, looking at a way older post in this thread and I didn't realize it... apologies.
mkl654321
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
• Posts: 3412
November 5th, 2010 at 1:45:24 PM permalink
Quote: goatcabin

"Getting even" is not illusory, here again, for the individual player. You can get even for a session or for a lifetime, with different probabilities, of course.

It's illusory in every circumstance except that where you have just made the last bet you will ever make in your life. Again, there is NO reality attached to "sessions" or "stopping points" or any other arbitrary division of your total lifetime play. You may be "even" for this day, or this week, or the portion of your life from birth up to this moment, but what real significance does that have?
The fact that a believer is happier than a skeptic is no more to the point than the fact that a drunken man is happier than a sober one. The happiness of credulity is a cheap and dangerous quality.---George Bernard Shaw
goatcabin
Joined: Feb 13, 2010
• Posts: 659
November 5th, 2010 at 6:13:14 PM permalink
Quote: mkl654321

It's illusory in every circumstance except that where you have just made the last bet you will ever make in your life. Again, there is NO reality attached to "sessions" or "stopping points" or any other arbitrary division of your total lifetime play. You may be "even" for this day, or this week, or the portion of your life from birth up to this moment, but what real significance does that have?

"Getting even" is simply a fact, whether you're talking about a session, a visit to Vegas, a year or a lifetime. If I say, "I've been playing craps for 30 years, I've kept close track and I'm even", what's the illusion? (It's more likely to be a lie, of course. >:-) It doesn't mean I think I have "beaten" the game or that I expect to stay ahead if I keep playing. If it's true, it's just a fact. If somebody gets behind in a session and then catches up to even and ends the session, that doesn't mean he/she thinks it means more than it does, or that it isn't just one small part of a lifetime's play. Sometimes it's just satisfying to be down and then catch up, so you take your bankroll and "live to play another day".
Cheers,
Alan Shank
Woodland, CA
Cheers, Alan Shank "How's that for a squabble, Pugh?" Peter Boyle as Mister Moon in "Yellowbeard"