7craps
Joined: Jan 23, 2010
• Posts: 1437
October 20th, 2010 at 7:49:15 PM permalink
Quote: JimmyMac

I've played craps 100's of times and in the rarest of instances have I seen a shooter hit 5 or more points before passing the dice. Typically, the shooter either 7's out before even hitting his number or he hits one pass and then 7's out before hitting his second number.

83.5377% or 5 out of 6 shooters will do just that.
Hit 0 or 1 point then 7 out. New shooter

Quote: JimmyMac

The more passes he makes the more likely it seems to be that he will eventually 7 out. We all know that he will eventually 7 out. The house has the edge and they know he will eventually 7 out.

You are correct.
With every roll the shooter does get closer to a 7 out. We just do not know exactly when.

Quote: JimmyMac

I like to play the Don't Pass side of the table. As I know the shooter will eventually 7 out and have to pass the dice, my goal is to simply get on the Don't Pass at the prime time before he does so.

The "prime time" only has a degree of certainty to it.
93.336% or 14 out of 15 shooters will either get 0,1 or 2 points, then 7 out. But by waiting after the first point is made you just gave up 83.53% (5 out of 6) that made 0 or 1. That is a big percentage of wins to just throw away.

Quote: JimmyMac

If you were betting the don't side of the table and wanted to gain an advantage based on a series of passes, how many passes would you say you should wait until jumping in on the don't pass?

One can not gain an advantage based on a series of passes.
waiting to bet can miss many wins. and betting into a losing streak can and is even more dangerous. You wait for 1 point win, you start betting the don't and the shooter fires off 4 more point winners with 1 or 2 pass line winners in there.
Are you increasing your bets after a loss? Laying the odds? The don't side with lay odds needs a greater bankroll to start with compared to playing the pass.

How do you play the don't pass?
After 2 or 3 in a row losses on the come out roll do you increase your bet or do you just flat bet and start laying odds?
winsome johnny (not Win some johnny)
JimmyMac
Joined: Oct 12, 2010
• Posts: 15
October 20th, 2010 at 8:45:36 PM permalink
Well, I certainly can't say this is a good way to play at all. But, it seems to be working as I play the online craps game here on the Wizard's website.

I'm trying to simulate exactly how i would play at a real craps table. I'm not rolling in the dough, so I can't break the bank with my bets. I'm simply trying to have fun and win a little bit of money.

To keep from getting bored, I place \$10 on the pass line and then play my odds. I'm only taking single odds, simply to make my bankroll last longer. i know that the house has 0 advantage on my odds bets, but in order to keep my bankroll for a longer session, i choose to only take single odds. My theory behind this is that I have just under a 50% chance of winning. I should be able to play for a while hopefully breaking even just by doing this and keep myself entertained.

However, after I hit a point, I stop playing the Pass Line and then I switch sides and place \$100 on the Don't Come.

If I win, I simply go back to the Pass line bet of \$10 and wait for the next point to be hit so I can place another \$100 on the Don't Pass.

If on the Don't Pass, a 7 or 11 is rolled, I lose my \$100 and then place another \$100 bet up hoping to establish a point and then hope the shooter does not hit his point. If the shooter hits another point, I simply put another \$100 on the don't pass.

My loss limit per roller is \$300. If I hit a \$300 loss, I wait for the next shooter.

I also have a stop win limit of \$300. My goal is to play for a little while, win \$300 and then take a break. When in Vegas, it is hard to simply stop gambling. But, my goal is to win multiple sessions and remove my winnings before the house gets their money back.

It seems to be working. I've been playing Wizard's craps game for the last week for a few hours each night and have had very good success. But, i'm wondering if Wizard's game is acurate because I'm actually winning at this strategy. I know that no strategy is supposed to work so I keep playing trying to lose and overall have had still a positive sessions.
JimmyMac
Joined: Oct 12, 2010
• Posts: 15
October 20th, 2010 at 8:47:06 PM permalink
Well, I certainly can't say this is a good way to play at all. But, it seems to be working as I play the online craps game here on the Wizard's website.

I'm trying to simulate exactly how i would play at a real craps table. I'm not rolling in the dough, so I can't break the bank with my bets. I'm simply trying to have fun and win a little bit of money.

To keep from getting bored, I place \$10 on the pass line and then play my odds. I'm only taking single odds, simply to make my bankroll last longer. i know that the house has 0 advantage on my odds bets, but in order to keep my bankroll for a longer session, i choose to only take single odds. My theory behind this is that I have just under a 50% chance of winning. I should be able to play for a while hopefully breaking even just by doing this and keep myself entertained.

However, after I hit a point, I stop playing the Pass Line and then I switch sides and place \$100 on the Don't Come.

If I win, I simply go back to the Pass line bet of \$10 and wait for the next point to be hit so I can place another \$100 on the Don't Pass.

If on the Don't Pass, a 7 or 11 is rolled, I lose my \$100 and then place another \$100 bet up hoping to establish a point and then hope the shooter does not hit his point. If the shooter hits another point, I simply put another \$100 on the don't pass.

My loss limit per roller is \$300. If I hit a \$300 loss, I wait for the next shooter.

I also have a stop win limit of \$300. My goal is to play for a little while, win \$300 and then take a break. When in Vegas, it is hard to simply stop gambling. But, my goal is to win multiple sessions and remove my winnings before the house gets their money back.

It seems to be working. I've been playing Wizard's craps game for the last week for a few hours each night and have had very good success. But, i'm wondering if Wizard's game is acurate because I'm actually winning at this strategy. I know that no strategy is supposed to work so I keep playing trying to lose and overall have had still a positive sessions.
thecesspit
Joined: Apr 19, 2010
• Posts: 5936
October 21st, 2010 at 10:12:13 AM permalink
There is no reason why it wouldn't work in the short term. There is no reason why it won't work in the short term. There's MORE chance of it failing in the short term than working.
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
guido111
Joined: Sep 16, 2010
• Posts: 707
October 21st, 2010 at 12:12:42 PM permalink
Quote: JimmyMac

However, after I hit a point, I stop playing the Pass Line and then I switch sides and place \$100 on the Don't Come.

If I win, I simply go back to the Pass line bet of \$10 and wait for the next point to be hit so I can place another \$100 on the Don't Pass.

If on the Don't Pass, a 7 or 11 is rolled, I lose my \$100 and then place another \$100 bet up hoping to establish a point and then hope the shooter does not hit his point. If the shooter hits another point, I simply put another \$100 on the don't pass.

My loss limit per roller is \$300. If I hit a \$300 loss, I wait for the next shooter.

Interesting style of play. Switching sides?
You should program WinCraps and see how often you "bust" and hit your win goal.

As a don't bettor you may like to know how often you can lose before that 7 out makes you a winner per each shooter.

The below table is from a 1 millon shooter WinCraps simulation.
It shows the "score" or result from a shooter.
P=pass
either a natural winner or a point winner
M=miss a pass line lost on the come out roll or a 7out...
every shooter has at least 1 miss, that being a 7out

The highest result or "score" is 0-1 (0 pass/1 miss) 39.85% of the time. The 0-1 "score" happened twice as often as the next highest result.
2nd highest result or "score" is 1-1 (1 pass/1 miss)and 55% of the time the 1 pass was a point winner
3rd highest result or "score" is 2-1 (2 pass/1 miss)and 49% of the time the 2 pass was 1 point winner and 1 natural winner, 30% the 2 pass was 2 point winners.

So if you really want to "predict" what the current or next shooter will do and when he will 7out...
Try this:

68.89% (2 out of 3 shooters) will have a "score" of:
0-1
1-1
or
2-1

Pass/Missrelative freqor less
0-10.398592216
1-10.1943006630.592892879
2-10.0960407980.688933677
3-10.0477811880.736714865
1-20.0433277860.780042651
0-20.0429002590.82294291
2-20.0326345310.855577441
4-10.0231424220.878719863
3-20.0210200580.899739921
4-20.0130446510.912784572
5-10.0115584870.92434306
5-20.007812540.932155599
1-30.0073290280.939484627
2-30.0070847270.946569353
3-30.0056189210.952188275
6-10.0055680250.9577563
0-30.0046518970.962408196
6-20.0042599970.966668194
4-30.0041683840.970836578
5-30.0029774170.973813995

Note:
0-2
0-3 "score" for example does not mean that the don't pass won 3 times. It could have. A 12 craps on the come out roll causes a miss but not a don't pass win. That would be a job for another simulation.
But it means the pass line LOST 3 times for that 1 shooter.
Too bad for the score of 0-5 for pass line bettors.
7winner
Joined: May 31, 2010
• Posts: 198
October 21st, 2010 at 1:57:30 PM permalink
Quote: guido111

As a don't bettor you may like to know how often you can lose before that 7 out makes you a winner per each shooter.

The below table is from a 1 millon shooter WinCraps simulation.
It shows the "score" or result from a shooter.
P=pass
either a natural winner or a point winner
M=miss a pass line lost on the come out roll or a 7out...
every shooter has at least 1 miss, that being a 7out

The highest result or "score" is 0-1 (0 pass/1 miss) 39.85% of the time. The 0-1 "score" happened twice as often as the next highest result.
2nd highest result or "score" is 1-1 (1 pass/1 miss)and 55% of the time the 1 pass was a point winner
3rd highest result or "score" is 2-1 (2 pass/1 miss)and 49% of the time the 2 pass was 1 point winner and 1 natural winner, 30% the 2 pass was 2 point winners.

So if you really want to "predict" what the current or next shooter will do and when he will 7out...
Try this:

68.89% (2 out of 3 shooters) will have a "score" of:
0-1
1-1
or
2-1

I have never seen statistics like those before.

So I played a few games in WinCraps from actual dice rolls that I have tracked over the years.
Funny how those above 3 results show up for the average shooter.

I had a streak of 13 and another at 17 in a row where the shooters never do anything but those 3 results.
And the final results were within +/-2 after just a few hours of play.
7 winner chicken dinner!
JimmyMac
Joined: Oct 12, 2010
• Posts: 15
October 21st, 2010 at 6:49:58 PM permalink
Wow.. thanks so much for running that data for me.

Just to make sure I am reading this correctly, I am interpreting your data correctly?

68.9% of shooters will do 1 of the 3 below:

0-1 39.9%
Shooter will not his pass (either natural winner or hit their point)

1-1 19.4%
Shooter will hit 1 pass (either natural winner or hit their point)

2-1 9.6%
Shooter will hit 2 pass (either natural winner or hit their point)
out of this one 49% of the time the pass was a natural winner and hit thier point.
ouf of this one 30% of the time they hit 2 points.

I'm pretty sure it looks like I just copied our data again, but i want to make sure I am understanding it correctly.

Does that mean there is a 9.8% better chance that the shooter will not go 2-1 after they have gone 1-1? (19.4 - 9.6)

Thanks again!
guido111
Joined: Sep 16, 2010
• Posts: 707
October 21st, 2010 at 7:54:00 PM permalink
Quote: JimmyMac

Does that mean there is a 9.8% better chance that the shooter will not go 2-1 after they have gone 1-1? (19.4 - 9.6)

Thanks again!

You have the math right.

But when a shooter goes 1-1:
meaning he made 1 pass and then a 7out. He is done. New Shooter.
anytime you see a 1 for the miss, that is a 7out.
example:1-1
2-1
3-1
4-1
all the above examples mean the shooter 7out after a certain number of pass line wins.

example: 2-2
means the shooter made 2 passes, and 2 misses, 1 being the ending 7out.

These are just probabilities of what can happen. Start writing down the "scores" and rolls of shooters, you will find that the math gets fairly close to actual outcomes the longer you observe them.
7winner
Joined: May 31, 2010
• Posts: 198
October 21st, 2010 at 8:00:14 PM permalink
Quote: guido111

These are just probabilities of what can happen. Start writing down the "scores" and rolls of shooters, you will find that the math gets fairly close to actual outcomes the longer you observe them.

I have been doing just that while watching the baseball playoffs.

Seems when the first 3, 0-1,1-1 and 2-1 have not occurred within the last 5 shooters - watch out- here they come. You can get aggressive with your don't bets. Of course, bigger bets means larger wins and larger losses.

How about the table for the don't pass scores?
I would like to see that also if you have it available.
Since the one above is for the pass line.
Thank you
7 winner chicken dinner!
guido111
Joined: Sep 16, 2010
• Posts: 707
October 21st, 2010 at 8:32:01 PM permalink
Quote: 7winner

How about the table for the don't pass scores?
I would like to see that also if you have it available.
Since the one above is for the pass line.
Thank you

OK, the 2 tables are pretty much the same.
I included the Bar12 for the don't pass.

Enjoy.
I dont know what you can do with it.

The below table is for the don't pass "scores" per shooter.
Pretty much the same as the pass line table.

example: 1-1-0
1 don't pass win for the shooter (7out)
1 Push for the Don't Pass (Bar 12 on the come out roll)
0 for 0 pass line wins

.Score Per ShooterDon't Pass.
.Win/Push/Loserelative freqor less
11-0-00.395001909.
21-0-10.1956941090.590696017
31-0-20.0974984090.688194427
41-0-30.0467082330.734902659
52-0-00.0330525510.767955211
62-0-10.0325435810.800498791
71-0-40.0237892860.824288077
82-0-20.0236925820.847980659
92-0-30.0155388730.863519532
101-0-50.0115078250.875027357
111-1-00.0107799970.885807355
121-1-10.0105051530.896312508
132-0-40.010041990.906354498
141-1-20.0078890440.914243542
152-0-50.0055884970.91983204
161-1-30.00553760.92536964
171-0-60.0055223310.930891971
183-0-10.0042906220.935182593
193-0-20.0036951270.93887772
202-0-60.0033439370.942221657
211-1-40.003298130.945519786
223-0-30.0032014250.948721211
232-1-20.0028960430.951617254
241-0-70.0028247870.954442041
253-0-00.0027942490.95723629
262-1-10.0026415570.959877847
273-0-40.002590660.962468507
282-1-30.002249650.964718158
291-1-50.0018730120.966591169
302-1-00.0017661280.968357297