HeyMrDJ
HeyMrDJ
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March 22nd, 2017 at 8:40:16 AM permalink
Quote: Romes

I also just noticed something odd... There was a 14 min video I watched of a euro guy playing, and he was betting "more" than the video linked a few posts ago. He would bet $7 on the Key Bet, and the Pot was then $700 (100x). However, in the video linked just now, the guy bet $1, and the pot was $50. I would expect the pot to be $100 if he bet $1... 100x, right? Perhaps they fluff the payouts unless you bet a certain amount?

Also:
What you're saying is it's not RNG based... RNG would indicate "random."



In the video I linked to they have obviously set the pot to 50x, the machine I am having the debate on has the pot set to 100x, some are progressive, but they are being beaten by vulturing.
Guess who peed in my Cheerios? Romes did...
Romes
Romes
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March 22nd, 2017 at 8:41:44 AM permalink
Quote: HeyMrDJ

...In the video I linked to they have obviously set the pot to 50x, the machine I am having the debate on has the pot set to 100x, some are progressive, but they are being beaten by vulturing.

I still don't think you've told us the actual debate?

Was it this? "What is the probability of hitting the keybet slot (its not 1/37)."

Then it would be 1/38, ASSUMING a fair RNG to all slots. If it's not fair, then it's not fair and there's no way to tell what kind of gaff they put on it.
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
HeyMrDJ
HeyMrDJ
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March 22nd, 2017 at 8:43:53 AM permalink
Quote: Romes

I also just noticed something odd... There was a 14 min video I watched of a euro guy playing, and he was betting "more" than the video linked a few posts ago. He would bet $7 on the Key Bet, and the Pot was then $700 (100x). However, in the video linked just now, the guy bet $1, and the pot was $50. I would expect the pot to be $100 if he bet $1... 100x, right? Perhaps they fluff the payouts unless you bet a certain amount?

"Assuming" that the multipliers are all on whatever you bet, and the "Pot" is 100x your bet, I agree the average multiplier would be:

(20+20+25+30+30+35+40+40+45+50+50+100)/12 = 40.42


Also:
What you're saying is it's not RNG based... RNG would indicate "random."



It is random, but I am saying that the RNG is not applying an equal weight to the keybet slot
Guess who peed in my Cheerios? Romes did...
HeyMrDJ
HeyMrDJ
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March 22nd, 2017 at 8:45:12 AM permalink
Quote: Romes

I still don't think you've told us the actual debate?

Was it this? "What is the probability of hitting the keybet slot (its not 1/37)."

Then it would be 1/38, ASSUMING a fair RNG to all slots. If it's not fair, then it's not fair and there's no way to tell what kind of gaff they put on it.



I am saying that if the multipliers are random (1 in 12) that the chance of hitting the key bet CANNOT be 1/38, as it would be a +EV play. Based on the stated RTP for the key bet, the odds of hitting the keybet are more like 1 in 42.4
Guess who peed in my Cheerios? Romes did...
Romes
Romes
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March 22nd, 2017 at 8:45:25 AM permalink
Quote: HeyMrDJ

...It is random, but I am saying that the RNG is not applying an equal weight to the keybet slot

lol then by definition it is not random... even though I understand what you're saying about "weighting" the slots. Random would assume equal fairness in each slot. Thus, while it might be random to the weighted slots, the wheel itself then at that point is NOT random.

So if it's not random, I'll revert to my previous statement that we have no way of knowing the weight they put on what slot and no way to calculate the actual return/etc.
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
HeyMrDJ
HeyMrDJ
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March 22nd, 2017 at 8:55:57 AM permalink
Quote: Romes

lol then by definition it is not random... even though I understand what you're saying about "weighting" the slots. Random would assume equal fairness in each slot. Thus, while it might be random to the weighted slots, the wheel itself then at that point is NOT random.

So if it's not random, I'll revert to my previous statement that we have no way of knowing the weight they put on what slot and no way to calculate the actual return/etc.



Ah but we can, if we know the EV of the multiplier is 40.41666 and we know the return to player is 95.34% surely the maths is straight forward.
Guess who peed in my Cheerios? Romes did...
Romes
Romes
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March 22nd, 2017 at 9:11:48 AM permalink
Quote: HeyMrDJ

Ah but we can, if we know the EV of the multiplier is 40.41666 and we know the return to player is 95.34% surely the maths is straight forward.

How do we know that's the RTP? Past that, we certainly can't figure out the hit frequency of the Key Bet unless we make the ASSUMPTION that all other numbers are weighted evenly above it. Who's to say I don't double weight 18 and 1/2 weight 16 and the math would still come out the same?
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
HeyMrDJ
HeyMrDJ
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March 22nd, 2017 at 9:19:38 AM permalink
Quote: Romes

How do we know that's the RTP? Past that, we certainly can't figure out the hit frequency of the Key Bet unless we make the ASSUMPTION that all other numbers are weighted evenly above it. Who's to say I don't double weight 18 and 1/2 weight 16 and the math would still come out the same?



because in the game rules it states that the RTP for the keybet alone is 95.34%
Guess who peed in my Cheerios? Romes did...
Romes
Romes
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March 22nd, 2017 at 9:27:16 AM permalink
Quote: HeyMrDJ

because in the game rules it states that the RTP for the keybet alone is 95.34%

Still to my point: How do we know they didn't weight the 0 extra, and shave the 16 a bit to make the math equal out at 95.34%? You'll never be able to figure the weights.
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
Canyonero
Canyonero
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March 22nd, 2017 at 10:01:11 AM permalink
Quote: Romes

Still to my point: How do we know they didn't weight the 0 extra, and shave the 16 a bit to make the math equal out at 95.34%? You'll never be able to figure the weights.



That would be the way to go. Change the probabilities of the 12 multpliers to achieve the desired RTP. Changing the wheel probablilites would change the RTP on the base roulette game. In favor of the player, btw, unless they bet the 00 (= key bet slot).

Quote: Romes

Random would assume equal fairness in each slot.



What kind of gambler's fallacy is that? "I can either win the lottery, or not. Fifty - fifty." Outcomes can be random but not equally likely. Especially in the world of computer RNGs. (Even in the physical world, you could just add another copy of the ace of clubs to deck of cards - voila! Or increase the size of one slot of a physical roulette wheel - still random.) Fairness and randomness are entirely different concepts.

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