roumin
roumin
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May 23rd, 2022 at 7:32:57 AM permalink
Quote: OnceDear

Quote: roumin

thank you all. feedback and suggestions were very helpful. I was looking for a grind play and did not know about craps iron cross. very cool
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If you want a grind play, and some potential profit, bet 35 numbers on a single zero roulette.
On those occasions where a zero is going to land, don't bet that spin.
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LOL, I lost my psychic abilities last year
Wizard
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May 23rd, 2022 at 8:42:39 AM permalink
Quote: Venthus

If you're looking at craps, how about laying the 2/12 on crapless craps?
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I didn't know players could do that. I looked up the Nevada Gaming rules, which say the operator may or may not offer lay bets as long as a 5% vig is taken.

Can anyone name a casino that does offer them?

As to the question at hand, has anyone suggested another single bet, as opposed to a combination of them, with more than the 2/3 chance of winning of laying the 4 or 10 in conventional craps?
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
Ace2
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May 23rd, 2022 at 11:27:34 AM permalink
I suppose you could get creative with a single hop bet...like "hop all numbers except the seven" for a 1 to 15 payout.

30 ways to win, 6 ways to lose, 11.11% edge which is about right for a hop bet.

It would take some explaining to the crew but they might take it, especially from a high roller / good tipper. I've never made a hop bet but my understanding is that it's a custom bet for any number and any version of that number to come up on the next roll
It’s all about making that GTA
tuttigym
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May 23rd, 2022 at 5:49:35 PM permalink
Quote: Ace2

I suppose you could get creative with a single hop bet...like "hop all numbers except the seven" for a 1 to 15 payout.

30 ways to win, 6 ways to lose, 11.11% edge which is about right for a hop bet.

It would take some explaining to the crew but they might take it, especially from a high roller / good tipper. I've never made a hop bet but my understanding is that it's a custom bet for any number and any version of that number to come up on the next roll
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Hopping all the numbers except the 7 for $1 each is a total wager of $12 to win $16 except for the 7 and the hard 4,6,8,& 10 plus the 2 and 12. That is 24 ways to win and 12 ways to lose. Not 30 ways to win and 6 ways to lose. In order to get all 30 ways to win, one must also hop the hard numbers plus the 2 & 12.

tuttigym
Ace2
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May 23rd, 2022 at 6:44:04 PM permalink
Quote: tuttigym

Quote: Ace2

I suppose you could get creative with a single hop bet...like "hop all numbers except the seven" for a 1 to 15 payout.
30 ways to win, 6 ways to lose, 11.11% edge which is about right for a hop bet.

It would take some explaining to the crew but they might take it, especially from a high roller / good tipper. I've never made a hop bet but my understanding is that it's a custom bet for any number and any version of that number to come up on the next roll
link to original post


Hopping all the numbers except the 7 for $1 each is a total wager of $12 to win $16 except for the 7 and the hard 4,6,8,& 10 plus the 2 and 12. That is 24 ways to win and 12 ways to lose. Not 30 ways to win and 6 ways to lose. In order to get all 30 ways to win, one must also hop the hard numbers plus the 2 & 12.

tuttigym
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I said all the numbers except 7 not all the point numbers except 7. 30 ways to win, 6 ways to lose

And I said a single hop bet not several bets
It’s all about making that GTA
AlanMendelson
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May 24th, 2022 at 5:48:39 AM permalink
Again, I dont know of any crapless craps game offering lay bets. Is there one?

Back to the original question: isnt a simple black or red, Or pass or don't pass what the OP wants?
Joeman
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May 24th, 2022 at 6:07:28 AM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

Mr. Martin Gale is always lurking in the background

he is 𝙖𝙡𝙬𝙖𝙮𝙨 ready, willing and able to show you how to recover your losses and get ahead

the man is a legend

Yeah, but whenever he bumps into Mr. Tab L. Imetz, he gets his a$$ whooped!
"Dealer has 'rock'... Pay 'paper!'"
tuttigym
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May 24th, 2022 at 6:57:23 AM permalink
Quote: Ace2

Quote: tuttigym

Quote: Ace2

I suppose you could get creative with a single hop bet...like "hop all numbers except the seven" for a 1 to 15 payout.
30 ways to win, 6 ways to lose, 11.11% edge which is about right for a hop bet.

It would take some explaining to the crew but they might take it, especially from a high roller / good tipper. I've never made a hop bet but my understanding is that it's a custom bet for any number and any version of that number to come up on the next roll
link to original post


Hopping all the numbers except the 7 for $1 each is a total wager of $12 to win $16 except for the 7 and the hard 4,6,8,& 10 plus the 2 and 12. That is 24 ways to win and 12 ways to lose. Not 30 ways to win and 6 ways to lose. In order to get all 30 ways to win, one must also hop the hard numbers plus the 2 & 12.

tuttigym
link to original post

I said all the numbers except 7 not all the point numbers except 7. 30 ways to win, 6 ways to lose

And I said a single hop bet not several bets
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Read your post again! A single hop bet is $1 for one number, i.e., 1/3 (4) that pays 15-1. "hop all the numbers except the 7" means wagering $18 on a given roll of the dice. That is several hop bets.

tuttigym
AlanMendelson
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May 24th, 2022 at 7:24:08 AM permalink
Just for fun, all the hop bets:

1,3
2,2
3,2
1,4
1,5
2,4
3,3
4,4
6,2
5,3
4,5
6,3
5,5
6,4

That's 14.
Lowest pay is 15
Highest pay is 30
Any 2,3,11,12,7 and you lose 14

If you add the horn numbers there are 18 bets. Unless you hit a hardway or a 2,12 you lose.
unJon
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May 24th, 2022 at 7:44:34 AM permalink
Quote: AlanMendelson

Just for fun, all the hop bets:

1,3
2,2
3,2
1,4
1,5
2,4
3,3
4,4
6,2
5,3
4,5
6,3
5,5
6,4

That's 14.
Lowest pay is 15
Highest pay is 30
Any 2,3,11,12,7 and you lose 14

If you add the horn numbers there are 18 bets. Unless you hit a hardway or a 2,12 you lose.
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If you wanted more balance then the bet should be:

$2 on each soft hops (except 7) and 3 and 11.
$1 on hard hops and 2 and 12

That’s $30 wagered. If a seven hits you lose $30. Anything else you win $1 or $2. ($30 in win plus keep the $1 or $2 bet on the winning roll.)

Atrocious EV but a winner 5/6 of the time.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
AlanMendelson
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May 24th, 2022 at 7:52:56 AM permalink
Quote: unJon

Quote: AlanMendelson

Just for fun, all the hop bets:

1,3
2,2
3,2
1,4
1,5
2,4
3,3
4,4
6,2
5,3
4,5
6,3
5,5
6,4

That's 14.
Lowest pay is 15
Highest pay is 30
Any 2,3,11,12,7 and you lose 14

If you add the horn numbers there are 18 bets. Unless you hit a hardway or a 2,12 you lose.
link to original post



If you wanted more balance then the bet should be:

$2 on each soft hops (except 7) and 3 and 11.
$1 on hard hops and 2 and 12

That’s $30 wagered. If a seven hits you lose $30. Anything else you win $1 or $2. ($30 in win plus keep the $1 or $2 bet on the winning roll.)

Atrocious EV but a winner 5/6 of the time.
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Since I'm bad at math... compare your numbers with making just a flat bet on pass or DP.

Thanks.
unJon
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May 24th, 2022 at 7:56:30 AM permalink
Quote: AlanMendelson

Quote: unJon

Quote: AlanMendelson

Just for fun, all the hop bets:

1,3
2,2
3,2
1,4
1,5
2,4
3,3
4,4
6,2
5,3
4,5
6,3
5,5
6,4

That's 14.
Lowest pay is 15
Highest pay is 30
Any 2,3,11,12,7 and you lose 14

If you add the horn numbers there are 18 bets. Unless you hit a hardway or a 2,12 you lose.
link to original post



If you wanted more balance then the bet should be:

$2 on each soft hops (except 7) and 3 and 11.
$1 on hard hops and 2 and 12

That’s $30 wagered. If a seven hits you lose $30. Anything else you win $1 or $2. ($30 in win plus keep the $1 or $2 bet on the winning roll.)

Atrocious EV but a winner 5/6 of the time.
link to original post



Since I'm bad at math... compare your numbers with making just a flat bet on pass or DP.

Thanks.
link to original post



To what end? Has nothing to do with OP’s question. OP liked the answer of covering all but one spot on roulette. Or did you miss that.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
Wizard
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May 24th, 2022 at 8:15:02 AM permalink
As yet another idea, one could make a sports bet on a big favorite. Looking at today, for example, we have the following MLB game:

Baltimore Orioles: +200
Evil empire NY Yankees: -250

Assuming we split the juice, for a fair line of -225, that implies the probability of the NYY winning is 69.23%.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
unJon
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May 24th, 2022 at 8:21:21 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

As yet another idea, one could make a sports bet on a big favorite. Looking at today, for example, we have the following MLB game:

Baltimore Orioles: +200
Evil empire NY Yankees: -250

Assuming we split the juice, for a fair line of -225, that implies the probability of the NYY winning is 69.23%.
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Good one. Here’s an even more unbalanced tennis line:

The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
billryan
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May 24th, 2022 at 8:29:44 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

As yet another idea, one could make a sports bet on a big favorite. Looking at today, for example, we have the following MLB game:

Baltimore Orioles: +200
Evil empire NY Yankees: -250

Assuming we split the juice, for a fair line of -225, that implies the probability of the NYY winning is 69.23%.
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The best team in baseball playing one of the worse, at home and with their Ace on the mound would win this game seven out of ten times on average. Just not last night.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
AlanMendelson
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May 24th, 2022 at 8:41:28 AM permalink
Quote: unJon


To what end? Has nothing to do with OP’s question. OP liked the answer of covering all but one spot on roulette. Or did you miss that.
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Doesnt the roulette bet win only $1?
With a pass or DP he has a chance to double his money.

Let's say you had $35 to risk. Would you use it to win $1 or use it to win $35 ?
unJon
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May 24th, 2022 at 8:47:08 AM permalink
Quote: AlanMendelson

Quote: unJon


To what end? Has nothing to do with OP’s question. OP liked the answer of covering all but one spot on roulette. Or did you miss that.
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Doesnt the roulette bet win only $1?
With a pass or DP he has a chance to double his money.

Let's say you had $35 to risk. Would you use it to win $1 or use it to win $35 ?
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Reread the OP and the rest of the thread. He is looking for a bet that wins with the highest probability, irrespective of what it pays.

I now understand better your position in the two dice thread.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
AlanMendelson
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May 24th, 2022 at 8:52:28 AM permalink
Perhaps we should ask the OP if he'd be happy winning $1.

In the lay bet in his question he'd be winning slightly less than 50% of his wager.

Quote: roumin

Does anyone know which game or bet in Vegas with the highest probability of wining a single bet. I am not talking about odds or casino edge. I am talking about bets with high probability which usually come with a low payout. For example: Craps lay bet on 10 or 4.
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roumin
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May 24th, 2022 at 9:12:11 AM permalink
Quote: AlanMendelson

Perhaps we should ask the OP if he'd be happy winning $1.

In the lay bet in his question he'd be winning slightly less than 50% of his wager.

Quote: roumin

Does anyone know which game or bet in Vegas with the highest probability of wining a single bet. I am not talking about odds or casino edge. I am talking about bets with high probability which usually come with a low payout. For example: Craps lay bet on 10 or 4.
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Covering 35 numbers and wining $1 qualifies, but obviously not attractive. 66-80% winning odds is my target.
AlanMendelson
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May 24th, 2022 at 9:19:42 AM permalink
Quote: roumin

Quote: AlanMendelson

Perhaps we should ask the OP if he'd be happy winning $1.

In the lay bet in his question he'd be winning slightly less than 50% of his wager.

Quote: roumin

Does anyone know which game or bet in Vegas with the highest probability of wining a single bet. I am not talking about odds or casino edge. I am talking about bets with high probability which usually come with a low payout. For example: Craps lay bet on 10 or 4.
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link to original post



Covering 35 numbers and wining $1 qualifies, but obviously not attractive. 66-80% winning odds is my target.
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Outside of a sports bet I think the best you'll do in a casino is 49%
roumin
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May 24th, 2022 at 9:28:13 AM permalink
What do you mean? The probability of winning a lay 4 or 10 bet is 66.67%
AlanMendelson
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May 24th, 2022 at 9:42:59 AM permalink
Quote: roumin

What do you mean? The probability of winning a lay 4 or 10 bet is 66.67%
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Go for it.
OnceDear
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May 24th, 2022 at 10:01:12 AM permalink
Quote: AlanMendelson


Quote: roumin

Does anyone know which game or bet in Vegas with the highest probability of wining a single bet. I am not talking about odds or casino edge. I am talking about bets with high probability which usually come with a low payout. For example: Craps lay bet on 10 or 4.
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Outside of a sports bet I think the best you'll do in a casino is 49%
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So, Alan.... He can't straddle two columns of roulette to give 64.8% probability of winning? One Bet. One Chip
Psalm 25:16 Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted. Proverbs 18:2 A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
AlanMendelson
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May 24th, 2022 at 10:08:26 AM permalink
Quote: OnceDear

Quote: AlanMendelson


Quote: roumin

Does anyone know which game or bet in Vegas with the highest probability of wining a single bet. I am not talking about odds or casino edge. I am talking about bets with high probability which usually come with a low payout. For example: Craps lay bet on 10 or 4.
link to original post



Outside of a sports bet I think the best you'll do in a casino is 49%
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So, Alan.... He can't straddle two columns of roulette to give 64.8% probability of winning? One Bet. One Chip
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Go for it.
Venthus
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May 24th, 2022 at 10:27:22 AM permalink
Regarding laying the 2/12 on Crapless... There was an info sheet from the Harrington Raceway and Casino (Delaware) that explicitly lists Lay 2/12 as paying 1 to 6, so I assumed they offer it?

Also, I don't quite get why, but it says odds on 2 pay 6:1, but odds on 12 pay 2:1. Yes, less than odds on 11, which is 3:1.

https://casino.harringtonraceway.com/sites/default/files/pdf/Crapless%20Craps.pdf

Edit: "Roll the dice, place a pass line wager, and discover all the ways you can win at crapless crap!"... A singular crap?
Last edited by: Venthus on May 24, 2022
AlanMendelson
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May 24th, 2022 at 10:37:23 AM permalink
Quote: Venthus

Regarding laying the 2/12 on Crapless... There was an info sheet from the Harrington Raceway and Casino (Delaware) that explicitly lists Lay 2/12 as paying 1 to 6, so I assumed they offer it?

Also, I don't quite get why, but it says odds on 2 pay 6:1, but odds on 12 pay 2:1. Yes, less than odds on 11, which is 3:1.

https://casino.harringtonraceway.com/sites/default/files/pdf/Crapless%20Craps.pdf
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Was the lay on 2/12 a special promotion? Was any other table bet required?

If a lay on 2/12 were available in Vegas I'd cater in my meals.
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