Poll

1 vote (7.14%)
5 votes (35.71%)
9 votes (64.28%)

14 members have voted

mustangsally
mustangsally
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September 27th, 2018 at 4:56:00 PM permalink
The Grand Slam Home Run is such a fun event when it happens.

I know I lost my voice screaming and cheering at least 2 times
when I watched it at the game. Mike Trout did it once
and I forget the other right now.

I now have 2 years of data on this (2018 and 2017 regular seasons)
and hope to have more (up to 10 years)

Question is for the poll:

about HALF (50%) of ALL MLB regular season 'Grand Slams'
are hit when there are how many out(s)?

one could add
why they think so

Sally

added: in season 2017
MLB had 179 days of scheduled games.
In 130 of those games at least 1 grand slam was hit.
There were 133 total grand slams hit.
3 games had exactly 2 hit during the same game
Last edited by: mustangsally on Sep 27, 2018
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smoothgrh
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September 27th, 2018 at 5:11:02 PM permalink
Thanks for the research!

I voted for "1 out" because 1) I figure it's more likely that the bases become loaded after at least one out is made, and 2) with a runner on third, it behooves the hitter to at least hit a flyball in the hopes of scoring one run on a sacrifice fly—and possibly that also increases the chance the ball gets hit out of the park!

FYI, thanks to pesky editors, most announcers now know to say only "grand slam," because "grand slam home run" is redundant. More editing trivia: "a new record" is also redundant, but it's often ignored because it "feels" more exciting.
billryan
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September 27th, 2018 at 5:42:44 PM permalink
I'm going to go with 2 puts.
My personal choice for most exciting play in baseball is the inside the park grand slam. The rarest of rare offensive plays.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
beachbumbabs
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September 27th, 2018 at 7:03:01 PM permalink
I said 2 outs.

It takes time for 3 guys to get on base, and there could be some back and forth getting there.

If there's 1 out and a runner on first, or even 2 on first and second, the next guy is often expected to sacrifice hit to advance him to a scoring position. 2 outs, they swing away. But 1 out often becomes 2 just because it's best strategy.

Also, a lot of times with 2 out and the big hitter coming up they'll walk him if there's a much weaker guy up behind him (or better matchup withe their pitcher). They will do that even when it loads the bases, because it doesn't matter if they strand 1, 2, or 3 - it just matters that they get the last guy out.

So, solo Homers seem to happen a lot with no outs, but grand slams seems like 2 outs most often.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
TomG
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September 27th, 2018 at 7:23:22 PM permalink
i Would bet quite a lot on two outs being the most common. Why? Because it feels right
TomG
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September 27th, 2018 at 7:24:46 PM permalink
Quote: beachbumbabs

But 1 out often becomes 2 just because it's best strategy.



Very rarely is it the best strategy. Outs are far more valuable than extra bases.
michael99000
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Rigondeaux
September 27th, 2018 at 11:16:58 PM permalink
Fernando Tatis hit 2 grand slams in one inning on April 23,1999

When people discuss mlb records that will never be broken , this should be on that list. Might be tied someday , but nobody will ever hit 3 in one inning
RS
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September 28th, 2018 at 12:16:35 AM permalink
I'm gonna go with 2 outs, for same reasons babs listed, more or less -- it takes some time to get people on all 3 bases.
SOOPOO
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September 28th, 2018 at 7:18:16 AM permalink
Quote: beachbumbabs

I said 2 outs.

It takes time for 3 guys to get on base, and there could be some back and forth getting there.

If there's 1 out and a runner on first, or even 2 on first and second, the next guy is often expected to sacrifice hit to advance him to a scoring position. 2 outs, they swing away. But 1 out often becomes 2 just because it's best strategy.

Also, a lot of times with 2 out and the big hitter coming up they'll walk him if there's a much weaker guy up behind him (or better matchup withe their pitcher). They will do that even when it loads the bases, because it doesn't matter if they strand 1, 2, or 3 - it just matters that they get the last guy out.

So, solo Homers seem to happen a lot with no outs, but grand slams seems like 2 outs most often.



I would be stunned if BBB is not correct.
mustangsally
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September 28th, 2018 at 8:37:04 AM permalink
Quote: beachbumbabs

Also, a lot of times with 2 out and the big hitter coming up they'll walk him if there's a much weaker guy up behind him (or better matchup withe their pitcher).

so far, I was staying away from that data but now find it interesting as MLB.com (Yahoo and ESPN) shows play-by-play (pitch-by-pitch too) and starting with 2017 the 1st 2 grand slams hit both had walks.

1st season slam
2 outs
Dodgers - Bottom 3rd
CHACIN PITCHING FOR SD
Toles flied out to center.
Seager lined out to left.
Turner doubled to deep left center.
González intentionally walked.
Forsythe hit by pitch, Turner to third, González to second.
Pederson homered to right (367 feet), Turner, González and Forsythe scored.


2nd slam of season
1 out
Indians - Top 9th
DYSON PITCHING FOR TEX
Díaz singled to center.
Naquin singled to left, Díaz to second.
Gomes lined out to right.
Almonte walked, Díaz to third, Naquin to second.
Santana walked, Díaz scored, Naquin to third, Almonte to second.
Lindor homered to right (401 feet), Naquin, Almonte and Santana scored.

This would be interesting to follow, but time consuming

Sally
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mustangsally
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smoothgrh
October 1st, 2018 at 7:51:24 PM permalink
Quote: beachbumbabs

but grand slams seems like 2 outs most often.

Here is final data from season 2018.
134 total Grand Slams hit.
1 more than the 2017 season
yes, I know this site: http://www.baseball-almanac.com/hitting/higs5.shtml
shows 132 GS hit for season 2017.
they are not correct.
Even Papa Johns' got it right: https://www.mlb.com/sponsors/papaslam
(there were 2 of us getting 133 for season 2017. I trust our count)

now,
0 outs: 19: 0.141791
1 out: 46: 0.3432836
2 outs: 69: 0.5149253


other data (for last 10 years coming later)
data for season 2018 (and partial list 2017) can be found here:
https://sites.google.com/view/krapstuff/mlb

Sally
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mustangsally
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October 3rd, 2018 at 8:59:56 AM permalink
one reason to start a thread like this was to introduce a sports bet
I had never heard or seen before,
but it seems my husband and Uncle knew about it and bet it before the odds went down this season over last season. (season 2018 still ended +ev even at -110 for YES)

I have only seen this type bet at William Hill mobile.(their min bet is $2 unless you have been told something else)
not even sure if offered in a casino.

in 2017, my data shows for 15 games scheduled on any given day
the average line was
1.35/-1.55 (end of season went up to 1.40/-1.60)
+135 for YES (at least 1 grand slam today)
-155 for NO
the bet had to be made B4 the 1st game started.

in 2018 the average line started out like in 2017 but by mid-season and end was at -110/-110

will be interesting to see what happens next season.

I never saw the bet offered if there were less and 13 games scheduled for the day.
I have not seen the bet offered for a playoff game either.

Sally
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GWAE
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October 3rd, 2018 at 1:11:04 PM permalink
Sally what is the actual bet? Is this a season long over/under.

Btw sounds like your hubby just passed recently, I am sorry to hear that. If he was into the gs bet then you should do it every year to commemorate him.

ETA never mind I just saw your last post. It was a daily over under.
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mustangsally
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October 3rd, 2018 at 1:16:15 PM permalink
Quote: GWAE

ETA never mind I just saw your last post. It was a daily over under.

yes. a daily yes or no actually.
My husband and his brother did real well for 2017.
they made the max bet ($1000 according to my hubbys' bet book) on all days the bet was offered and won over $40,000 just on that bet.
I only found that out after my husband died.

My Dad died a few years ago and my Mom sold his business so I have lots of money from that.
actually kind of ticked me off knowing my husband did all this betting and kept it from me.
well, I am over it now

will see what season 2019 brings
Sally
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beachbumbabs
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October 3rd, 2018 at 3:40:33 PM permalink
Quote: mustangsally

yes. a daily yes or no actually.
My husband and his brother did real well for 2017.
they made the max bet ($1000 according to my hubbys' bet book) on all days the bet was offered and won over $40,000 just on that bet.
I only found that out after my husband died.

My Dad died a few years ago and my Mom sold his business so I have lots of money from that.
actually kind of ticked me off knowing my husband did all this betting and kept it from me.
well, I am over it now

will see what season 2019 brings
Sally



Sally.

My sincere condolences.

A stunning reminder that we never know what another person is going through.

I don't mean this to be an empty offer, but it feels useless at the moment. If there is something you need, you should ask, please. PM or whatever.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
ddloml
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October 3rd, 2018 at 5:17:15 PM permalink
I was at a game where a batter struck out twice in one inning. No one has ever struck out thee times in an inning.
FinsRule
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October 3rd, 2018 at 5:59:45 PM permalink
Quote: ddloml

I was at a game where a batter struck out twice in one inning. No one has ever struck out thee times in an inning.



A batter can strike out infinite times in an inning, and homer infinite times in an inning (even the same inning) That’s what makes sports with no timeclocks interesting.
FinsRule
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October 3rd, 2018 at 6:01:13 PM permalink
Quote: mustangsally

yes. a daily yes or no actually.
My husband and his brother did real well for 2017.
they made the max bet ($1000 according to my hubbys' bet book) on all days the bet was offered and won over $40,000 just on that bet.
I only found that out after my husband died.

My Dad died a few years ago and my Mom sold his business so I have lots of money from that.
actually kind of ticked me off knowing my husband did all this betting and kept it from me.
well, I am over it now

will see what season 2019 brings
Sally



So every time there’s a grand slam, you can think of him and smile. My condolences.
DRich
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October 3rd, 2018 at 6:14:28 PM permalink
Quote: FinsRule

A batter can strike out infinite times in an inning, and homer infinite times in an inning (even the same inning) That’s what makes sports with no timeclocks interesting.



Very true. In the Dodgers Rockies game on Monday the pitcher had four strikeouts in a half inning tying a record. A pitcher has never had 5.

Surprisingly, it happened three times this year in the MLB. It happened 8 times in 2012.
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unJon
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October 3rd, 2018 at 7:29:23 PM permalink
Quote: DRich

Very true. In the Dodgers Rockies game on Monday the pitcher had four strikeouts in a half inning tying a record. A pitcher has never had 5.

Surprisingly, it happened three times this year in the MLB. It happened 8 times in 2012.

Well I just learned something new about baseball today. Thanks for that. Really cool.
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beachbumbabs
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October 3rd, 2018 at 10:34:37 PM permalink
Quote: DRich

Very true. In the Dodgers Rockies game on Monday the pitcher had four strikeouts in a half inning tying a record. A pitcher has never had 5.

Surprisingly, it happened three times this year in the MLB. It happened 8 times in 2012.



OK, you lost me. How does the 4th guy get pitched to, let alone struck out?
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
billryan
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October 3rd, 2018 at 11:01:46 PM permalink
If the third strike is a swing and a wild pitch or passed ball, the runner can take first if he gets there before the ball can get thrown there.
There was a ridiculous NCAA game where the pitcher had a no hitter but gave up about six runs on wild pitches, with twenty strikeouts or so.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
beachbumbabs
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October 3rd, 2018 at 11:04:31 PM permalink
Quote: billryan

If the third strike is a swing and a wild pitch or passed ball, the runner can take first if he gets there before the ball can get thrown there.
There was a ridiculous NCAA game where the pitcher had a no hitter but gave up about six runs on wild pitches, with twenty strikeouts or so.



Aha! Thanks. That makes sense.

So is wild pitch or passed ball a judgement call that assigns the error to pitcher or catcher? Same result, right? The runner gets on.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
RS
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October 3rd, 2018 at 11:31:07 PM permalink
More baseball "trivia" for those interested....

What is the fewest number of total pitches necessary for a full complete game (it can end after 8.5 innings, where the home team [bats last] is winning)?

For those who don't know -- in extra innings (overtime), if the home team scores such that they are ahead by the other team by at least 1 run, the game is immediately over. If a game goes to extra innings, what is the most amount of runs a team can win by?


No pitches are necessary, as a pitcher can intentionally walk batters without throwing a pitch. He can walk or balk runners home such that at least one team scores and wins (necessary for a game to end). He can pick off the runners, as well, for all the outs.



There is no limit for the away team, since the home team will still have an at bat.
GWAE
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beachbumbabs
October 4th, 2018 at 12:28:51 AM permalink
Quote: beachbumbabs

Aha! Thanks. That makes sense.

So is wild pitch or passed ball a judgement call that assigns the error to pitcher or catcher? Same result, right? The runner gets on.



That is correct.
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michael99000
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October 4th, 2018 at 1:07:12 PM permalink
Quote: beachbumbabs

Aha! Thanks. That makes sense.

So is wild pitch or passed ball a judgement call that assigns the error to pitcher or catcher? Same result, right? The runner gets on.



Passed balls and wild pitches are both not recorded as errors on the pitcher or catcher.

The only difference between the two is if a run scores on the play, it’s an unearned run if it was scored as a passed ball
FinsRule
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October 4th, 2018 at 1:26:48 PM permalink
Quote: michael99000

Passed balls and wild pitches are both not recorded as errors on the pitcher or catcher.

The only difference between the two is if a run scores on the play, it’s an unearned run if it was scored as a passed ball



Not sure why a passed ball is not an error. That’s baseball for you.
GWAE
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October 4th, 2018 at 1:33:02 PM permalink
Quote: FinsRule

Not sure why a passed ball is not an error. That’s baseball for you.



Because it is part of the pitching sequence and not a fielding sequence. They keep separate stats for those such as wild pitch and passed ball.
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smoothgrh
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October 4th, 2018 at 4:01:07 PM permalink
Thank you for the research, Sally.

I apologize for being a jerk in my previous posting.
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