The election....

Quote: Wizard

It isn't often I can say this anymore, but that was a bit before my time (I was seven at the time of the election). However, there are some older farts that me on the board who I hope can comment. I do remember Nixon and before Watergate my impression was that he was well liked and handled the media well. It is easy for youngsters to think the only president to resign was probably terrible, but other than Watergate I think he had a proud record to stand on. In the 72 election you refer to Nixon won 49 out of 50 states.

I agree that Nixon had a tremendous record prior to Watergate! But, charisma? He answered questions pretty candidly, but was very much of the, "Speak softly and carry a big stick," type of mentality. I didn't find him dynamic at all. I was not alive at the time of this election, but you could watch McGovern's Democratic Convention Acceptance Speech on YouTube, I think it's pretty powerful. Here are his closing remarks:

Quote:

From secrecy and deception in high places; come home, America.

From military spending so wasteful that it weakens our nation; come home, America.

From the entrenchment of special privileges in tax favoritism; from the waste of idle lands to the joy of useful labor; from the prejudice based on race and sex; from the loneliness of the aging poor and the despair of the neglected sick — come home, America.

Come home to the affirmation that we have a dream. Come home to the conviction that we can move our country forward.

Come home to the belief that we can seek a newer world, and let us be joyful in that homecoming, for this “is your land, this land is my land — from California to New York island, from the redwood forest to the gulf stream waters — this land was made for you and me.”

So let us close on this note: May God grant each one of us the wisdom to cherish this good land and to meet the great challenge that beckons us home.

And now is the time to meet that challenge.

Good night, and Godspeed to you all.

He never had a prayer, though, even if someone agrees with me that he had the edge in charisma.

Quote: SOOPOO

I believe President Obama, despite driving the country ever closer to economic ruin, will be re-elected. Here are my reasons....

African-Americans will vote for him no matter what.
He will harp on the 2% payroll tax cut which will resonate with the middle class, despite the fact that it moves Social Security that much closer to insolvency.
He will harp on taxing the "bad 1%" who are successful, while Romney will not. It's easy for the vast majority of the 99% to go along.
He is a better orator than Romney.
I expect the Republican Vice Presidential nominee to be an overall negative, but nothing can top Sarah Palin.

Anyway, I have bet Weaselman my $70 against his $30, and the Wiz my $180 against his $100.
I have Obama, they have Romney. In the event either one does not make it to the election I have the Democratic nominee, they have the Republican.

Who do you think will win in November, and why?

I finally found my initial post on my thoughts. The 2% payroll tax cut hasn't been mentioned much. I think now that Ryan was neither a plus nor a minus. The 1% concept proved true. As far as orator, they seem pretty even.

So I have two bets, I almost forgot the one with weaselman.

Hopefully I'll be paying out $250 soon....

Quote: Wizard

I know Perot probably took more from Bush, so who would have won if Perot's votes were split 60/40 between Bush and Clinton in each state? This sounds like a job for Paco.

Bush would have needed to take 66.666% of Perot's votes. Most people assume that Bush would have easily won 2 out of 3 of the votes that went to Perot. But some analysts feel that based on their polls that Perot was taking the same from both Clinton and Bush. Personally, I take the conventional wisdom that Perot was a spoiler.

States Bush would have won given 60/40 split of Perot's votes (with 1992 electoral votes)
21 Ohio
15 New Jersey
13 Georgia
8 Colorado
4 Nevada
4 New Hampshire
3 Montana

Additional States Bush would have won given 66.6/33.33 split of Perot's votes
11 Wisconsin
8 Connecticut
8 Kentucky
7 Iowa
4 Maine


There is no indication that Clinton predicted that incredible surge in revenue in his first term. Clinton balanced the budget based on massive revenue, not on spending cuts. But to be fair, in the Clinton term spending increases were the most modest of any president in the last half century.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Redskins_Rule

Since the Panthers defeated the Redskins in their last home game before the elections, Romney is going to at least win the popular vote according to the "Redskins Rule".

Quote: Pokeraddict

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Redskins_Rule

Since the Panthers defeated the Redskins in their last home game before the elections, Romney is going to at least win the popular vote according to the "Redskins Rule".

I just put that up on DT less than 10 minutes ago! Only I linked to Snopes. :D

Quote: EvenBob

Quote: EvenBob

Uh Oh. The Univ of Colorado analysis, that has correctly
predicted the last 8 presidential elections, says Romney
will win with 53% of the vote. I'm surprised its only 53%..
.

I remember this analysis from UofC in 2000, when they
correctly predicted that Bush would get more electoral
votes than Gore. Bush lost the popular vote and won
the election. The two prof's who started this painstaking
analyais say presidential elections are always decided by
issues and not by TV ad's. They also say its almost
impossible for a Dem president to be re-elected if unemployment
is over 6%. They predicted Kerry would lose in 2004, when
the polls at election time were so close that it was a toss-up.
These guys predicted it months in advance.

So how did that work out for you?

" I was not alive at the time of this election" I remember Tricky Dick's big promise to bring the prisoner's home. Can anyone name the first two prisoners he brought home / ? ?