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ItsCalledSoccer
ItsCalledSoccer
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February 15th, 2011 at 7:04:44 AM permalink
Seeing that the "500 reds" thread has turned into a discussion over what "never happens" means, I thought it would be interesting to guage what the threshholds of various contributors are.

The probablility of 500 reds coming up on a double-green wheel is (18/38)^500 = 5.5 EE -163, which is nonzero, but would require something like 8.3 hundred trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion spins per second since the beginning of the universe for it to statistically happen once.

Another way to look at it is, if there's one spin per second since the beginning of the universe, the universe will have to get 2 billion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion times older than it is now.

So, the question is, what is your probability threshhold for saying that an event with nonzero probability will, in the history of the universe, never happen?
weaselman
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February 15th, 2011 at 7:15:39 AM permalink
I vote for "something else" for the lack of a better choice. Even events, whose probability is exactly 0 happen (as we have discussed in the infinite martingale thread). If there are many trillion of possible outcomes, than each outcome has very low probability of happening, yet, some of them definitely WILL happen (while some won't).
"When two people always agree one of them is unnecessary"
ItsCalledSoccer
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February 15th, 2011 at 7:21:22 AM permalink
Quote: weaselman

I vote for "something else" for the lack of a better choice. Even events, whose probability is exactly 0 happen (as we have discussed in the infinite martingale thread). If there are many trillion of possible outcomes, than each outcome has very low probability of happening, yet, some of them definitely WILL happen (while some won't).



That would make sense ... the (independent, exclusive) probability of Event A OR Event B OR ... Event N happening is greater than the probability of just Event A happening. That's why it shouldn't surprise when 500 results come out on a wheel and we retroactively say that "hey, THAT happened so it IS possible." If you make your predictive OR sequence to include all 500 possible color outcome sequences, then the probability is 1.

As for the choices, the poll option are limited so I just picked some numbers that would create some threshholds ... there weren't enough blanks to go every "-illion" increment and it would be just as random to put "1 in 10^38" as it would be any other, but when you're talking about probabilities so remote, it gets a little brain-numbing ... so i just picked some common numbers and went with that.

I meant to see what the general threshhold of "never" was for the folks in this forum. So ... take a guess!
weaselman
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February 15th, 2011 at 7:30:27 AM permalink
Quote: ItsCalledSoccer



As for the choices, the poll option are limited so I just picked some numbers that would create some threshholds ... there weren't enough blanks to go every "-illion" increment and it would be just as random



The option I am missing is that there is no threshold at all, because the magnitude of the probability of the event simply cannot tell you if it will happen. If events with 0 probability can happen (and do happen), how can anyone say that if the probability is less than some threshold, it will not happen? It is obviously incorrect whatever the threshold is. But that being incorrect, still does not mean that the event will happen. Maybe it will, maybe it won't, we just don't know, because it is ... well ... random.
"When two people always agree one of them is unnecessary"
ItsCalledSoccer
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February 15th, 2011 at 8:38:38 AM permalink
Quote: weaselman

The option I am missing is that there is no threshold at all, because the magnitude of the probability of the event simply cannot tell you if it will happen. If events with 0 probability can happen (and do happen), how can anyone say that if the probability is less than some threshold, it will not happen? It is obviously incorrect whatever the threshold is. But that being incorrect, still does not mean that the event will happen. Maybe it will, maybe it won't, we just don't know, because it is ... well ... random.



Maybe the question isn't worded that great, but the "it *WILL* happen" option was meant to cover what I think you're saying here.

In the sense that none of us can see the future, you're right. But It's not meant to ask you to guess the future on whether or not a particular event WILL happen.

It's meant to feel out the threshhold folks have on feeling good about saying "even though the probability is nonzero, it is sufficiently remote for me to feel good about saying it will never happen in the history of the universe."
odiousgambit
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February 15th, 2011 at 9:45:38 AM permalink
Quote: ItsCalledSoccer

So, the question is, what is your probability threshhold for saying that an event with nonzero probability will, in the history of the universe, never happen?



Not answering your question, but altering it to "what is my threshold for taking any event as seriously having any chance whatsoever of happening in my lifetime?", I'd have to put it up there with chances of a lightning bolt getting me in one *year*, which ask.com says is 1/750,000. I personally can't relate to the history of the universe as a time scale.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
Ayecarumba
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February 15th, 2011 at 12:26:07 PM permalink
Quote: ItsCalledSoccer

Seeing that the "500 reds" thread has turned into a discussion over what "never happens" means, I thought it would be interesting to guage what the threshholds of various contributors are.

The probablility of 500 reds coming up on a double-green wheel is (18/38)^500 = 5.5 EE -163, which is nonzero, but would require something like 8.3 hundred trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion spins per second since the beginning of the universe for it to statistically happen once.

Another way to look at it is, if there's one spin per second since the beginning of the universe, the universe will have to get 2 billion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion times older than it is now.

So, the question is, what is your probability threshhold for saying that an event with nonzero probability will, in the history of the universe, never happen?



I voted for other, as any non-zero event can happen, however that does not mean the same thing as it will (or must) happen. It also does not mean that if it occurs, it will be the last 500 spins of the 8.3 bazillion spins. It could have been spins 1 - 500, and no one bothered to write it down.
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SOOPOO
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February 15th, 2011 at 2:39:41 PM permalink
I went to the casino today and recorded 500 spins in a row. It was R, R, B, B, B ,R etc... B, R. If I showed you the exact results of the 500 spins it would seem like a meaningless blur of B's and R's. If I instead asked do you think in the history of the world will, there ever be this sequence of 500 spins, you would all answer, no, the chance of that happening is many bazillion to one against. The exact sequence of the next 500 spins also has a pre spin chance of being predicted of only one in a bazillion (I now like the number bazillion), but there WILL be such a sequence. So WHATEVER sequence of 500 colors you pick, the likelihood of it happening is approaching zero, but there WILL be such a sequence on your next 500 spins.
ItsCalledSoccer
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February 15th, 2011 at 3:00:27 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

I went to the casino today and recorded 500 spins in a row. It was R, R, B, B, B ,R etc... B, R. If I showed you the exact results of the 500 spins it would seem like a meaningless blur of B's and R's. If I instead asked do you think in the history of the world will, there ever be this sequence of 500 spins, you would all answer, no, the chance of that happening is many bazillion to one against. The exact sequence of the next 500 spins also has a pre spin chance of being predicted of only one in a bazillion (I now like the number bazillion), but there WILL be such a sequence. So WHATEVER sequence of 500 colors you pick, the likelihood of it happening is approaching zero, but there WILL be such a sequence on your next 500 spins.



While true, that's not really the intent of the question. If you spin a wheel 500 times, you'll get 500 results which make up one string of actual results. Yes, that particular string of results will be as unlikely as 500 reds in a row (or even slightly more unlikely, considering there will be a smattering of G's in there as well).

But the question deals with the probability that something will happen, and not a history of things that have happened. Before beginning the string of 500 spins, f you were to say, "In the next 500 spins, the results will be BBRRBBRRRGBRRBRBBRB yada yada yada (up to 500 correct results)" I would say the same thing. This one occurred, but of all the 500-spin bloc results that have ever occurred, it's 1 in 8.3 bazilion. One of them *HAS* to occur ... but is a PARTICULAR 500-spin string so improbable as to, as a matter of practice, make you sure that it will NEVER happen?

If, say, there's been a quadrillion roulette spins in the history of the universe (that would mean an average of 90,500 spins per second for the past 350 years), assuming they all took place on one wheel for the sake of setting the sequence, then that's a quadrillion less 499 different sets of 500-string results, or round back up to a quadrillion.

Calling a bazillion what it is (a hundred trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion), that means there are 8.3 bazillion minus a quadrillion sets of results that haven't yet occurred. Using zeros, that's

830 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000

minus

1 000 000 000 000 000

equals

829 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 000 000 000 000 000

or essentially 8.3 bazillion remaining strings that have not occurred.

Hopefully, the numbers illustrate how exceedingly unlikely any predicted string of results is to occur. The fact that a quadrillion particular results HAVE occurred because that many trials have taken place doesn't change its unlikeliness.

So, while it seems settling to say, "some bloc occurred, so yes, it can happen," while that's not wrong, is the 8.3 bazillion remaining strings enough to say that "this PARTICULAR string (whether it be 500 reds or any other set of 500 results) will never happen." ?
rxwine
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February 15th, 2011 at 3:14:28 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

(I now like the number bazillion)



I like bazillion too. I'd like to win it one day.


This thread reminds me of guys who make hundreds of shots (sometimes) to film one absurd shot -- where it looks like they were just walking by and throwing the ball over their head and the ball bounces off the roof of a house, a telephone pole and goes in a basket.
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weaselman
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February 15th, 2011 at 3:17:17 PM permalink
Quote: ItsCalledSoccer



Hopefully, the numbers illustrate how exceedingly unlikely any predicted string of results is to occur.



Any string of numbers is equally unlikely to occur, whether predicted or not. Yet some of them do occur. You are not saying, that by predicting a string, you are making it less likely to occur, are you? If not, then what is so special about it compared to the "bazillion" of other combinations of which some will definitely show up?
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rxwine
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February 15th, 2011 at 3:18:54 PM permalink
Also, can you measure things in multiple cosmic calendar years? If someone said something might take 4 CCYs to occur, it's at least seems more likely than 1000. Or is that nonsensical?
There's no secret. Just know what you're talking about before you open your mouth.
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