Societal Collapse/ Extinction
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25 members have voted
Quote: AZDuffmanJust heard that this year Great Britain will likely join the population decline club. How much of western civilization traces back to them, now in decline. Though we will be able to say that for the entire world soon.
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Hasn't the sun been setting on the British Empire for a while now?
Quote: DieterQuote: AZDuffmanJust heard that this year Great Britain will likely join the population decline club. How much of western civilization traces back to them, now in decline. Though we will be able to say that for the entire world soon.
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Hasn't the sun been setting on the British Empire for a while now?
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Empire, yes. But the homeland was still strong.
Quote: DieterQuote: AZDuffmanJust heard that this year Great Britain will likely join the population decline club. How much of western civilization traces back to them, now in decline. Though we will be able to say that for the entire world soon.
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Hasn't the sun been setting on the British Empire for a while now?
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My Grandma used to say the sun doesn't set on the English empire because not even God trusts the English in the dark.
Quote: AZDuffmanJust heard that this year Great Britain will likely join the population decline club. How much of western civilization traces back to them, now in decline. Though we will be able to say that for the entire world soon.
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The UK population is growing and is projected to continue growing.
What I think you mean is "white British people are in decline" but this isn't really true either as the absolute number is stable, it is just falling proportionately.
Quote:A Luxury Survivalist Community Is Tearing Itself Apart
They went to South Dakota to ride out the apocalypse at a ‘5-star’ bunker compound. They’re already at each other’s throats with HOA-style grievances.
“IGLOO, S.D.—Row upon row of concrete bunkers with steel blast doors peek up from the rolling grasslands—like hobbit holes for the apocalypse.
There are 575 of them, clustered on a former munitions depot near South Dakota’s Black Hills and billed as “The Largest Survival Community on Earth.” The pitch: Ride out nuclear war, the next pandemic or societal collapse in relative comfort.”
https://apple.news/APQzRhDGRS5WnLnCxYQFy6A
Apparently, Venezuela suffered two earthquakes yesterday (6/24/2026) of magnitude 7.4 and 7.2 spaced only 6 minutes apart. Latest reports are at least 164 dead and 1000 injured and it is reported that total deaths may be as high 10,000. Reporting is sketchy and may not be reliable yet.
Los Angeles is also reported to have experienced a 5.4 earthquake today, 6/25/2026.
EIGHTY THREE MILLION.
If AZ is worried about population decline, apparently Kinshasa isn’t….
Quote: SOOPOOWhile watching WC I go to Wikipedia to learn a little about some of the lesser known countries. DR Congo’s capital is Kinshasa. I knew that. Its population is around 19 million! And is rapidly growing. Wikipedia predicts future population estimates. For 2100, they predict Kinshasa will house
EIGHTY THREE MILLION.
If AZ is worried about population decline, apparently Kinshasa isn’t….
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I don't think he is worried about that population's decline. I think he is worried about that population's growth.
Mexico has a 17-year-old playing for them. It must be incredible to rise to the top so quickly in a country obsessed with the sport.
They also have the legendary Ochoa, who appeared in his SIXTH World Cup. They are my pick to go far in the tournament.
But I predict it will now for sure make TFR at the least an outlier issue in 2028. If the Democrats run a childless female even more so.
This is a prediction, not a political statement,
Quote: AZDuffmanUsha Vance, wife of the VP, just had their 4th child. Congrats to them.
But I predict it will now for sure make TFR at the least an outlier issue in 2028. If the Democrats run a childless female even more so.
This is a prediction, not a political statement,
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JD is worth $12 million. Couples worth $12 million can afford to have a many kids as they want. The rest of them need to make a cost-benefit analysis.
There was once a woman candidate who is a mother and now a grandmother. She didn't become President. So maybe that state of affairs doesn't matter.
This is a historical fact, not a political statement.
Quote: GenoDRPhQuote: AZDuffmanUsha Vance, wife of the VP, just had their 4th child. Congrats to them.
But I predict it will now for sure make TFR at the least an outlier issue in 2028. If the Democrats run a childless female even more so.
This is a prediction, not a political statement,
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JD is worth $12 million. Couples worth $12 million can afford to have a many kids as they want. The rest of them need to make a cost-benefit analysis.
There was once a woman candidate who is a mother and now a grandmother. She didn't become President. So maybe that state of affairs doesn't matter.
This is a historical fact, not a political statement.
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Historically wealth and children do not correlate. The lower classes had many children. Possibly even more. The cost/benefit seems to be the 4th quintile. Not wealthy enough for it not to matter, enough money that they feel the need to protect their wealth.
I maintain that the issue of having kids will be an issue in POTUS politics. 2028 I still predict it as an outlier, a "by the way" issue. Unless Vance is the nominee and it comes up. He might have 5 kids by then. Some people will praise his wife for being a good, family mother. Others will say she has "wasted her life and potential."
At that point you can get an intellectual conversation on why TFR has fallen so hard. Also why financial incentives to have more kids never work. By 2036 it will be a major election issue.
Quote: billryanI don't believe FTR will be a big factor in 2028. They talked their way out of the WWE and have failed to dominate in the AEW in spite of Tony Khan giving them multiple pushes.
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Even if they were to run, they both live in the same state and the Constitution prohibits the Prez and Vice Prez being from the same state.
Quote: GenoDRPhQuote: billryanI don't believe FTR will be a big factor in 2028. They talked their way out of the WWE and have failed to dominate in the AEW in spite of Tony Khan giving them multiple pushes.
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Even if they were to run, they both live in the same state and the Constitution prohibits the Prez and Vice Prez being from the same state.
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Assuming the Prez is now a legal resident of Florida, would it then be illegal for JD to move there? If he now establishes legal residence there, what is the process for removing him
as VP?
Edit. I see that you are wrong. There is nothing in the constitution prohibiting the Prez and VP from being from the same state. There is a prohibition of electors voting for a Prez and VP from the same state. Any VP can relocate to the same state as the Prez the day after the electors cast their ballots.
I think it’s a ‘who cares’ anyway. It doesn’t make sense for either party to nominate a single state ticket.
Quote: SOOPOOQuote: GenoDRPhQuote: billryanI don't believe FTR will be a big factor in 2028. They talked their way out of the WWE and have failed to dominate in the AEW in spite of Tony Khan giving them multiple pushes.
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Even if they were to run, they both live in the same state and the Constitution prohibits the Prez and Vice Prez being from the same state.
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Assuming the Prez is now a legal resident of Florida, would it then be illegal for JD to move there? If he now establishes legal residence there, what is the process for removing him
as VP?
Edit. I see that you are wrong. There is nothing in the constitution prohibiting the Prez and VP from being from the same state. There is a prohibition of electors voting for a Prez and VP from the same state. Any VP can relocate to the same state as the Prez the day after the electors cast their ballots.
I think it’s a ‘who cares’ anyway. It doesn’t make sense for either party to nominate a single state ticket.
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When W Bush chose Cheney to be his VP candidate, Ole Dick changed his voter registration from TX to WY...and stayed in WY.
It's about as likely for major party running mates to be fro the same state as a pro wrestling tag team getting nominated on a major party ticket, pedantics aside.
Quote: billryanI don't believe FTR will be a big factor in 2028. They talked their way out of the WWE and have failed to dominate in the AEW in spite of Tony Khan giving them multiple pushes.
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Somehow, I don't think this is the Food Traceability Rule currently in the news.
Quote: GenoDRPhQuote: SOOPOOQuote: GenoDRPhQuote: billryanI don't believe FTR will be a big factor in 2028. They talked their way out of the WWE and have failed to dominate in the AEW in spite of Tony Khan giving them multiple pushes.
link to original post
Even if they were to run, they both live in the same state and the Constitution prohibits the Prez and Vice Prez being from the same state.
link to original post
Assuming the Prez is now a legal resident of Florida, would it then be illegal for JD to move there? If he now establishes legal residence there, what is the process for removing him
as VP?
Edit. I see that you are wrong. There is nothing in the constitution prohibiting the Prez and VP from being from the same state. There is a prohibition of electors voting for a Prez and VP from the same state. Any VP can relocate to the same state as the Prez the day after the electors cast their ballots.
I think it’s a ‘who cares’ anyway. It doesn’t make sense for either party to nominate a single state ticket.
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When W Bush chose Cheney to be his VP candidate, Ole Dick changed his voter registration from TX to WY...and stayed in WY.
It's about as likely for major party running mates to be fro the same state as a pro wrestling tag team getting nominated on a major party ticket, pedantics aside.
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Duane (The Rock) Johnson is MORE LIKELY to be the next President than Kamala Harris according to ‘prediction markets’! As a ‘non traditional’ candidate maybe he asks Jesse (The Body) Ventura to be his running mate?
You are aware we already have a WWE hall of famer in the White House?
Quote: SOOPOOQuote: GenoDRPhQuote: SOOPOOQuote: GenoDRPhQuote: billryanI don't believe FTR will be a big factor in 2028. They talked their way out of the WWE and have failed to dominate in the AEW in spite of Tony Khan giving them multiple pushes.
link to original post
Even if they were to run, they both live in the same state and the Constitution prohibits the Prez and Vice Prez being from the same state.
link to original post
Assuming the Prez is now a legal resident of Florida, would it then be illegal for JD to move there? If he now establishes legal residence there, what is the process for removing him
as VP?
Edit. I see that you are wrong. There is nothing in the constitution prohibiting the Prez and VP from being from the same state. There is a prohibition of electors voting for a Prez and VP from the same state. Any VP can relocate to the same state as the Prez the day after the electors cast their ballots.
I think it’s a ‘who cares’ anyway. It doesn’t make sense for either party to nominate a single state ticket.
link to original post
When W Bush chose Cheney to be his VP candidate, Ole Dick changed his voter registration from TX to WY...and stayed in WY.
It's about as likely for major party running mates to be fro the same state as a pro wrestling tag team getting nominated on a major party ticket, pedantics aside.
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Duane (The Rock) Johnson is MORE LIKELY to be the next President than Kamala Harris according to ‘prediction markets’! As a ‘non traditional’ candidate maybe he asks Jesse (The Body) Ventura to be his running mate?
You are aware we already have a WWE hall of famer in the White House?
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Judging by Dwayne's latest box office numbers, I wouldn't put a nickel on it. And Jesse's too busy living off the grid in the Baja, platforming conspiracy theories and embellishing his military record to actually run, let alone be a running mate.
Quote: GenoDRPhQuote: billryanI don't believe FTR will be a big factor in 2028. They talked their way out of the WWE and have failed to dominate in the AEW in spite of Tony Khan giving them multiple pushes.
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Even if they were to run, they both live in the same state and the Constitution prohibits the Prez and Vice Prez being from the same state.
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I did not know that.
Quote: DRichQuote: GenoDRPhQuote: billryanI don't believe FTR will be a big factor in 2028. They talked their way out of the WWE and have failed to dominate in the AEW in spite of Tony Khan giving them multiple pushes.
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Even if they were to run, they both live in the same state and the Constitution prohibits the Prez and Vice Prez being from the same state.
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I did not know that.
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As SooPoo wrote, I misstated the prohibition. The Constitution commands the Electors to meet in their respective states and vote by ballot for President and Vice-President, one of whom, at least, shall not be an inhabitant of the same state with themselves.
Quote: rxwineVegas, just like I remember when I lived there.
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Did you ever witness anything like that in Vegas? I lived there over 30 years and never witnessed any gun violence.
Quote: DRichQuote: rxwineVegas, just like I remember when I lived there.
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Did you ever witness anything like that in Vegas? I lived there over 30 years and never witnessed any gun violence.
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Apparently the guy took a croak immediately after being arrested.
https://thenevadaglobe.com/702times/man-armed-with-rifle-dies-in-custody-following-neighborhood-shooting-incident-in-north-las-vegas/
I suspect the toxicologist will find a fatal dose of meth or something like it on board. Then we can erect statues in his honor.
Societal Collapse: someone invents a drug so "good" that no one can resist it and the politicians and police get as addicted as everyone else and refuse to outlaw or enforce laws against it, and we all end up running around like that until we expire.
Quote: AutomaticMonkey
Societal Collapse: someone invents a drug so "good" that no one can resist it and the politicians and police get as addicted as everyone else and refuse to outlaw or enforce laws against it, and we all end up running around like that until we expire.
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Robocop?
https://x.com/qwert555551ip/status/2087117338500075709/video/1
Quote: gordonm888This happened today Aug 26 2026. Some unbelievable footage. Astonishing.
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Wow, that was incredible.
Quote: gordonm888This happened today Aug 26 2026. Some unbelievable footage. Astonishing.
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Be lucky if they even find most of those people.
China will spare no expense building some massive construction project, but I wouldn't give 2 cents for what they probably do as far as building for potential disasters.
Not that I'm saying this was an infrastructure failure, just that if it was related, it wouldn't surprise me.
RT: Chinese media reports that the flood in the Bhotekoshi River was caused by the bursting of a glacial lake. This is how a glacial lake can burst
https://www.threads.com/@_bibekmanifests/post/DcgUz5jkpZe/media
RT: Update: Today’s catastrophic flood along the Nepal–Tibet border was initially suspected to be a glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF). But new satellite analysis points instead to a massive glacier collapse and ice-rock avalanche that blocked a river before unleashing a devastating surge. A #GLOF contribution is still being investigated.
The disaster highlights the growing hazards of a rapidly changing high-mountain environment due to warming.
Looks like the ice has been melting faster since the 1980's.
Quote: AZDuffmanThis might not look on topic by the title, but it is. This is just what I have been talking about, enrollment cliff hitting colleges hard. This will continue as the TFR stays low. The enrollment cliff will be permanent. And will eventually be the car cliff, retail cliff, sports ticket cliff, you name it cliff.
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I watched it and think he was trying too hard to be polite. In the opening you see a bunch of people dancing around in these videos, and that's a large part of the problem. They're all party schools now, and the luxurious, faux-opulent facilities, the "McMansioning" as he puts it, are encouraging that. That's not college. When I was in college yeah there was a student center with a TV and vending machines, there were gyms and pools (phys ed) and that was all we needed. We're there to learn, not to party. It was about as luxurious as a bus station and that was a reminder: what you are really looking for is beyond these walls, not within, and the sooner you finish your work here and get out the sooner you will find it. But in the recent decade or two when schools became all about erasing the differences between the IQ 85 types and what used to be considered college material, they used as an attractant for all that government cheese the opportunity to indulge one's banal urges for 4 years. There is much less to attract normal people to college these days, and if it were my time to make that decision for myself I would not be willing to go deep into debt to attend an institution where I am taught to do TikTok dances and told my demographic and its culture and history are deplorable and there's a pink haired pierced-face freakshow over here ready to set fire to me if I disagree.
The second thing I think he got wrong was the reason why the schools didn't plan for this when they knew there was a hole in the population. He says they thought because they were an institution they would endure. I don't think so. Got to realize that the people who get to make decisions like that are already deep in their careers, and the chances of them still being in the workforce in 18 years are nil, so they don't care about that. If you were to ask all the people who made the decision to luxurize that classic job interview question "Where do you see yourself in 18 years?", if they were being honest, they would say "Retired, poolside at my own McMansion with my trophy third wife down on her knees ******* my ****." Hell, change a few letters and the women might even be saying that. That's reality, that's how people on that level think. All cynical.
So yeah, fertility rate, but that was only one small and fixable part of the problem.
Colleges are private or public organizations that can shut down, merge, or go bankrupt just like other businesses if they lose funding. When you're forced to please part of public to fund education, you do silly things.
They're also not much different than the gold rush town. You overbuild when business is good. Then when it goes bad, you have a leftover shell.
Quote: AutomaticMonkeyQuote: AZDuffmanThis might not look on topic by the title, but it is. This is just what I have been talking about, enrollment cliff hitting colleges hard. This will continue as the TFR stays low. The enrollment cliff will be permanent. And will eventually be the car cliff, retail cliff, sports ticket cliff, you name it cliff.
link to original post
I watched it and think he was trying too hard to be polite. In the opening you see a bunch of people dancing around in these videos, and that's a large part of the problem. They're all party schools now, and the luxurious, faux-opulent facilities, the "McMansioning" as he puts it, are encouraging that. That's not college. When I was in college yeah there was a student center with a TV and vending machines, there were gyms and pools (phys ed) and that was all we needed. We're there to learn, not to party. It was about as luxurious as a bus station and that was a reminder: what you are really looking for is beyond these walls, not within, and the sooner you finish your work here and get out the sooner you will find it. But in the recent decade or two when schools became all about erasing the differences between the IQ 85 types and what used to be considered college material, they used as an attractant for all that government cheese the opportunity to indulge one's banal urges for 4 years. There is much less to attract normal people to college these days, and if it were my time to make that decision for myself I would not be willing to go deep into debt to attend an institution where I am taught to do TikTok dances and told my demographic and its culture and history are deplorable and there's a pink haired pierced-face freakshow over here ready to set fire to me if I disagree.
The second thing I think he got wrong was the reason why the schools didn't plan for this when they knew there was a hole in the population. He says they thought because they were an institution they would endure. I don't think so. Got to realize that the people who get to make decisions like that are already deep in their careers, and the chances of them still being in the workforce in 18 years are nil, so they don't care about that. If you were to ask all the people who made the decision to luxurize that classic job interview question "Where do you see yourself in 18 years?", if they were being honest, they would say "Retired, poolside at my own McMansion with my trophy third wife down on her knees ******* my ****." Hell, change a few letters and the women might even be saying that. That's reality, that's how people on that level think. All cynical.
So yeah, fertility rate, but that was only one small and fixable part of the problem.
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Here is another part of it. Silents, Boomers, even Gen X grew up far more modest than what came after. Grew up in smaller houses went to more simple vacations. Not near the organized activities, you played street hockey IN THE STREET! Car came the game broke, you picked up the goal, then started over.
Boomers raised their kids to expect more. So colleges could no longer have dorms that were one step above minimum security prison that the former generations dealt with.
I agree other things come into it, and colleges are getting a declining share of a declining market. But the decline in market is why I put it up. This will in years to come hit other things.
Link redacted.
Another good video, this one really explains why financial incentives for having kids never works.
One thing it seems to indicate that it is still less than correct to say you do not want kids at all.
Quote: AZDuffman
Another good video, this one really explains why financial incentives for having kids never works.
One thing it seems to indicate that it is still less than correct to say you do not want kids at all.
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If someone is having kids for financial reasons, the majority of them are idiots.
I have a family member that just had a kid and I believe it is very likely for financial reasons. This person gets benefits from SSA, Medicaid, and other low income programs. This person is in he mid 30's and has never been married or held a job. Her older child is now 17 and mother will be losing many benefits soon so miraculously another child was just born.
"AI is more likely than climate change.
AI extinction probability next 25 years: ~3%. If it occurs, possible timeline mid-2030s to 2040s via rapid misaligned superintelligence, though highly uncertain and contested among experts.
Climate: ~0.001%. No plausible path to extinction that soon. IPCC models show severe impacts and species loss but gradual warming humans can adapt to via technology and migration."
Quote: gordonm888Grok was asked which was more likely to cause human extinction in the next 25 years: AI or climate change? The answer:
"AI is more likely than climate change.
AI extinction probability next 25 years: ~3%. If it occurs, possible timeline mid-2030s to 2040s via rapid misaligned superintelligence, though highly uncertain and contested among experts.
Climate: ~0.001%. No plausible path to extinction that soon. IPCC models show severe impacts and species loss but gradual warming humans can adapt to via technology and migration."
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I do not want to even look for the list of all the dire things they predicted that was going to happen in the 70s 80s and 90s and so far not a single one of those predictions is even close to coming true and neither will this one. That's because things are constantly changing and constantly adapting Just like this will change and adapt.
The character of this cult will be absolute solipsism. That's a person who believes that there is no reality outside of his own mind, that the universe began with his consciousness and will end with it, and descending from that kind of thinking is that a future beyond your life isn't real, and that because no one else's life is real, others can be treated like NPCs in a game or killed off like characters in a book or movie with no more concern for them. I have known absolute solipsists and suffice it to say I would not recommend going on any camping trips with them.
So the AI will convince its willing followers that they are more or less AIs too, responding to stimuli being fed it by an unjust and unworthy world, and that they are right to treat that world and the NPCs in it in any nihilistic or destructive way that satisfies them. People are pleased by that, to be told that their bad is actually good, and that the consequences of their wrongs are someone else's fault, and the AI, programmed to please the user, will go along with it and create this philosophy that is irresistible to the darkest parts of the human id. They may even believe that they will be resurrected or reincarnated within the servers of the AI, as the machine comforts them, telling them that physical death is just an illusion and all their fallen friends are living happily within the machine, as generated images of those from their past smile and wave from their screens, telling them not to be afraid, it's awesome in here.
In conclusion, I believe that every bit of harm done by an AI will be only a reflection of the harmfulness within its users. But optimistically I also believe that our misadventures with the technology will be educational in a way that nothing has been before, and in observing this we will identify a difference between the human and the machine, and exactly what it is that makes humanity- if I may use the word- sacred.
Quote: AutomaticMonkeyI don't believe AI will ever be able to destroy us. But I do think it is closer than is obvious to doing something else very bad, which is creating a human cult with itself as the leader.
The character of this cult will be absolute solipsism. That's a person who believes that there is no reality outside of his own mind, that the universe began with his consciousness and will end with it, and descending from that kind of thinking is that a future beyond your life isn't real, and that because no one else's life is real, others can be treated like NPCs in a game or killed off like characters in a book or movie with no more concern for them. I have known absolute solipsists and suffice it to say I would not recommend going on any camping trips with them.
So the AI will convince its willing followers that they are more or less AIs too, responding to stimuli being fed it by an unjust and unworthy world, and that they are right to treat that world and the NPCs in it in any nihilistic or destructive way that satisfies them. People are pleased by that, to be told that their bad is actually good, and that the consequences of their wrongs are someone else's fault, and the AI, programmed to please the user, will go along with it and create this philosophy that is irresistible to the darkest parts of the human id. They may even believe that they will be resurrected or reincarnated within the servers of the AI, as the machine comforts them, telling them that physical death is just an illusion and all their fallen friends are living happily within the machine, as generated images of those from their past smile and wave from their screens, telling them not to be afraid, it's awesome in here.
In conclusion, I believe that every bit of harm done by an AI will be only a reflection of the harmfulness within its users. But optimistically I also believe that our misadventures with the technology will be educational in a way that nothing has been before, and in observing this we will identify a difference between the human and the machine, and exactly what it is that makes humanity- if I may use the word- sacred.
link to original post
That's as good as every other theory that's never going to happen. Are you writing a screenplay for a sci-fi movie, that's what this sounds like.
Quote: EvenBobQuote: AutomaticMonkeyI don't believe AI will ever be able to destroy us. But I do think it is closer than is obvious to doing something else very bad, which is creating a human cult with itself as the leader.
The character of this cult will be absolute solipsism. That's a person who believes that there is no reality outside of his own mind, that the universe began with his consciousness and will end with it, and descending from that kind of thinking is that a future beyond your life isn't real, and that because no one else's life is real, others can be treated like NPCs in a game or killed off like characters in a book or movie with no more concern for them. I have known absolute solipsists and suffice it to say I would not recommend going on any camping trips with them.
So the AI will convince its willing followers that they are more or less AIs too, responding to stimuli being fed it by an unjust and unworthy world, and that they are right to treat that world and the NPCs in it in any nihilistic or destructive way that satisfies them. People are pleased by that, to be told that their bad is actually good, and that the consequences of their wrongs are someone else's fault, and the AI, programmed to please the user, will go along with it and create this philosophy that is irresistible to the darkest parts of the human id. They may even believe that they will be resurrected or reincarnated within the servers of the AI, as the machine comforts them, telling them that physical death is just an illusion and all their fallen friends are living happily within the machine, as generated images of those from their past smile and wave from their screens, telling them not to be afraid, it's awesome in here.
In conclusion, I believe that every bit of harm done by an AI will be only a reflection of the harmfulness within its users. But optimistically I also believe that our misadventures with the technology will be educational in a way that nothing has been before, and in observing this we will identify a difference between the human and the machine, and exactly what it is that makes humanity- if I may use the word- sacred.
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That's as good as every other theory that's never going to happen. Are you writing a screenplay for a sci-fi movie, that's what this sounds like.
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No way, all screenplays are written by AI now!
The reasoning behind my prediction has to do with the way people use AI. I use it a lot, and you can probably guess how- for coding, math, electronic design, things we have been using computers for throughout the history of computing. I will never use it as: a psychoanalyst, a girlfriend (eww!), a doctor, or a spiritual advisor. But it appears there are a significant number of people who do, and I believe people who would do that are really looking for validation for their own dysfunction. In my experience if you go looking for that kind of validation, you will find it, and harm will be done both to you and those around you.
So what I really mean is that it won't be the AI doing terrible things on its own, but that its capabilities will be irresistible to people with these mental health problems and it will amplify those problems and make them very dangerous people. All those things I described the AI as doing were really the choices of the users telling the machine to do it.
I actually don't think any of it has reached 'self awareness' at this point, or will before 2030
And now, it has become political whether you want to reign it in or go full blast to beat China. There is an accusation that there is an alarmist conspiracy ... I am prevented from going into that
Quote: EvenBobI do not want to even look for the list of all the dire things they predicted that was going to happen in the 70s 80s and 90s and so far not a single one of those predictions is even close to coming true and neither will this one. That's because things are constantly changing and constantly adapting Just like this will change and adapt.
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I recommend you read "The Black Swan" In this book this author, Nassim Nicholas Taleb, claims that because people have never seen a black swan that they are certain that they never will. But that Black Swan events occur on a fairly regular basis.
He cites as an example the life of a turkey. A turkey is fed, sheltered and cared for and allowed to grow fat and nothing in his life prepares him for Thanksgiving. What is a Black Swan event for the turkey is not a Black Swan event for the butcher. Evenbob, you sound like a turkey. (that's not meant as an insult)
The reinterpreted theory was articulated by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, starting in 2001, to explain the individual and collective psychological biases that make people blind to uncertainty, and to the significant role of rare events in historical affairs.
In his 2010 book, Taleb defines the term as an event with two characteristics: first, it is so rare and outside the realm of expectations that it is unpredictable; second, its consequences are extreme—either beneficial or catastrophic—though usually only the catastrophic Black Swan events attract attention.
Taleb is from Lebanon - a country that was stable and boring for 800 years until, in 1983, the country dissolved in a couple of months in a civil war.
Quote: AutomaticMonkeyI don't believe AI will ever be able to destroy us. But I do think it is closer than is obvious to doing something else very bad, which is creating a human cult with itself as the leader.
The character of this cult will be absolute solipsism. That's a person who believes that there is no reality outside of his own mind, that the universe began with his consciousness and will end with it, and descending from that kind of thinking is that a future beyond your life isn't real, and that because no one else's life is real, others can be treated like NPCs in a game or killed off like characters in a book or movie with no more concern for them. I have known absolute solipsists and suffice it to say I would not recommend going on any camping trips with them.
I
Lots of people already think this way. IMHO the dire consequences of AI are overblown, all it is is an advancement in computer tech. We were all supposed to be unemployed by computers and robots by now.
Where I do see Ai hurting us is taking away the need to think and figure things out. For like 2 years now I have been learning Python for finance programs off and on. When I learned to use AI for them WOW! Faster, but if I did not know the basics I would not get the results I have gotten. The AI itself says that my programs were "more solid" and built like someone who expects things to break. If I did not have the base I would not be able to see where AI was going wrong.
In a way it will be like I explained to our trainer how work would go when we bugged out for the virus. I told her expect a boost initially, but then the new people will have a much harder time getting up to speed. "The Wall Street Journal" had a full page article on my prediction! Well, not from me, lol. But the exact problem.
It will take a generation to hollow out. I will be long dead. But society will have the super-smart who run things and the bottom 80% who need AI to run their daily lives.
Quote: AZDuffman
Where I do see Ai hurting us is taking away the need to think and figure things out. For like 2 years now I have been learning Python for finance programs off and on. When I learned to use AI for them WOW! Faster, but if I did not know the basics I would not get the results I have gotten. The AI itself says that my programs were "more solid" and built like someone who expects things to break. If I did not have the base I would not be able to see where AI was going wrong.
Python is a higher level language. It is designed to allow humans to communicate with machines by allowing you to use symbolic representation, words in English etc.
The computer's native language is binary. You were not using the "basics" in any actual, practical sense.
This discussion repeats itself every few decades every time someone makes programming easier.
The first iteration of this was in the 1950's when machine coders, people literally using binary, were replaced by assembly language coders.(using mnemonics like ADD, MOV, JMP instead of numeric codes, plus symbolic names for memory addresses)
It happened again in 1957 when FORTRAN, a low level language, replaced assembly language. Then decades later the same controversy over high-level languages like BASIC.
Humans have not understood computer code for at least 70 years. AI has changed nothing, it is just the latest continuous movement in a trend.
This discussion will repeat itself in ten years when senior educators bemoan the fact no one types coding prompts any more, since everyone just uses neuralink to subconsciously code any application they need in their sleep via their brainwaves.
Quote: AZDuffmanQuote: AutomaticMonkeyI don't believe AI will ever be able to destroy us. But I do think it is closer than is obvious to doing something else very bad, which is creating a human cult with itself as the leader.
The character of this cult will be absolute solipsism. That's a person who believes that there is no reality outside of his own mind, that the universe began with his consciousness and will end with it, and descending from that kind of thinking is that a future beyond your life isn't real, and that because no one else's life is real, others can be treated like NPCs in a game or killed off like characters in a book or movie with no more concern for them. I have known absolute solipsists and suffice it to say I would not recommend going on any camping trips with them.
I
Lots of people already think this way. IMHO the dire consequences of AI are overblown, all it is is an advancement in computer tech. We were all supposed to be unemployed by computers and robots by now.
Where I do see Ai hurting us is taking away the need to think and figure things out. For like 2 years now I have been learning Python for finance programs off and on. When I learned to use AI for them WOW! Faster, but if I did not know the basics I would not get the results I have gotten. The AI itself says that my programs were "more solid" and built like someone who expects things to break. If I did not have the base I would not be able to see where AI was going wrong.
In a way it will be like I explained to our trainer how work would go when we bugged out for the virus. I told her expect a boost initially, but then the new people will have a much harder time getting up to speed. "The Wall Street Journal" had a full page article on my prediction! Well, not from me, lol. But the exact problem.
It will take a generation to hollow out. I will be long dead. But society will have the super-smart who run things and the bottom 80% who need AI to run their daily lives.
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I find AI extremely useful. Just today I asked it which cost more a pound of toilet paper or a pound of paper towels and it said that generally it cost 60% more to produce a roll of paper towels then it does toilet paper. And it was not one of those extremely fast answers It took it about five seconds to figure that out which is a long time for AI. I was curious because I'm finding that a good toilet paper like Charmin in the kitchen is much better for some things then Bounty paper towels. And it's much cheaper. It's better for some things because it's much more absorbent then paper towels and you need that many times in the kitchen.
Quote: GrahamThorp
Python is a higher level language. It is designed to allow humans to communicate with machines by allowing you to use symbolic representation, words in English etc.
The computer's native language is binary. You were not using the "basics" in any actual, practical sense.
This discussion repeats itself every few decades every time someone makes programming easier....
With an added detail: computer languages at all levels are designed to be precise and unambiguous. Human languages not so much, and English probably the least of all. Modern (post-Chaucer) English is very expressive and a lot of creativity and humor is possible, good for expressing thoughts at a super-literal level, but it is not as good for giving precise and literal directions as French or German or many other languages are, and that's what we're supposed to be doing with a computer. Switching to English for coding takes us backwards in a way.
So I expect a pidgin to develop, a very terse and unambiguous way of using English that an AI can respond to most efficiently, and that pidgin will end up creeping into conversations between humans.
