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mkl654321
mkl654321
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January 19th, 2011 at 10:28:06 PM permalink
2010 Foreclosures: 9.42% (Worst)
Unemployment: 14.3% (Worst)
Decrease in Building Permits 2006-2010: -84.39% (Worst)

The most incredible statistic is that almost one in ten homes in Nevada were foreclosed upon in 2010!

I feel sorry for anyone who owns a house in Nevada, and needs to sell it to get the hell out of there to somewhere where there are jobs. A LOT of people must be absolutely stuck in Vegas, Reno, etc.
The fact that a believer is happier than a skeptic is no more to the point than the fact that a drunken man is happier than a sober one. The happiness of credulity is a cheap and dangerous quality.---George Bernard Shaw
EvenBob
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January 19th, 2011 at 10:51:02 PM permalink
Quote: mkl654321



The most incredible statistic is that almost one in ten homes in Nevada were foreclosed upon in 2010!



The good news is you can buy a 3 bedroom 3 bath condo for 100K (or less) when it would have cost 275K 3 years ago.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
Wavy70
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January 20th, 2011 at 12:40:18 AM permalink
I wish I was a few decades closer to retirement than I am. For what I would buy a 1500sqft house in CT I could get almost a mansion in LV.
I have a bewitched egg that I use to play VP with and I have net over 900k with it.
FarFromVegas
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January 20th, 2011 at 7:41:32 AM permalink
Quote: Wavy70

I wish I was a few decades closer to retirement than I am. For what I would buy a 1500sqft house in CT I could get almost a mansion in LV.



Even being at least 15 years from retirement and being able to ignore school districts for the kids we bought a foreclosure in the Phoenix area two years ago when the mortgage rates were rock bottom. Vegas and San Diego were both also struggling then, but the attraction of Vegas is the hotels and "cheap" in San Diego still wasn't cheap in the real world. We got a place as large as our home on the East coast for half the price, plus it's newer and nicer, and it's close enough to Vegas for me.

It's hot in the summer but the kids don't care and we were able to stay there for Christmas and miss out on the snow. So if you think you'll want a place in Vegas down the road you could check into the foreclosures now and see if you can swing the payments on maybe a more modest home than the mansion!
Each of us is entitled to his own opinion, but not to his own facts. Preparing for a fight about your bad decision is not as smart as making a good decision.
Wizard
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January 20th, 2011 at 9:07:21 AM permalink
Quote: mkl654321

I feel sorry for anyone who owns a house in Nevada, and needs to sell it to get the hell out of there to somewhere where there are jobs. A LOT of people must be absolutely stuck in Vegas, Reno, etc.



Many in that situation have just quit paying their mortgage, living rent free for about the year it takes for the banks and courts to foreclose, and then move out of state. Those foreclosure homes keep depressing prices, and the vicious circle continues.

Personally, I have lost about half the wealth I've ever accumulated due Vegas real estate prices falling 60%.

However, let the record show I think it IS a good time to buy. Then again, I said that the summer of 2009, when I bought a bigger house, and prices have continued to fall. If you're a way off from retirement, I think it would be a good idea to buy a home here now, and rent it out until you are prepared to retire. The rent should more or less cover the mortgage. You might consider Sun City Summerlin, which is just down the street from where I live.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
dm
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January 20th, 2011 at 9:19:25 AM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

The good news is you can buy a 3 bedroom 3 bath condo for 100K (or less) when it would have cost 275K 3 years ago.




True, bit I would feel very uncomfortable being subject to association dues that could go up up up......Maybe there is protection
against that. I have heard dues amounts in the $1000/month being referenced.
clarkacal
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January 20th, 2011 at 9:32:13 AM permalink
Quote: dm

True, bit I would feel very uncomfortable being subject to association dues that could go up up up......Maybe there is protection
against that. I have heard dues amounts in the $1000/month being referenced.



Seems like there is a niche out there for someone starting a property management co. that guarantees saving 15% or more on the homeowners/association dues. No way it can be that expensive for what you get. My condo is paid for but I still pay almost half what the mortgage was in dues and assessments yearly. Sorry, just had to vent...
mkl654321
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January 20th, 2011 at 10:06:16 AM permalink
Quote: clarkacal

Seems like there is a niche out there for someone starting a property management co. that guarantees saving 15% or more on the homeowners/association dues. No way it can be that expensive for what you get. My condo is paid for but I still pay almost half what the mortgage was in dues and assessments yearly. Sorry, just had to vent...



When I bought my "chain of houses" in 1999-2005 (trading up every time), most of those houses were in subdivisions that assessed homeowner's association fees. The fees were substantial, they kept going up, up ,up, and the associations were run by anal-retentive little Napoleons who enjoyed wielding their petty power. I was told I couldn't do ANYTHING without those association's approval, such as installing a jacuzzi tub in my master bedroom. Once I sent them my detailed proposal for installing a paper towel dispenser over the kitchen sink. They didn't even get the joke.
The fact that a believer is happier than a skeptic is no more to the point than the fact that a drunken man is happier than a sober one. The happiness of credulity is a cheap and dangerous quality.---George Bernard Shaw
clarkacal
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January 20th, 2011 at 10:13:05 AM permalink
Quote: mkl654321

anal-retentive little Napoleons


That would be a good name for a band!
odiousgambit
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January 21st, 2011 at 7:11:41 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Personally, I have lost about half the wealth I've ever accumulated due Vegas real estate prices falling 60%.



The paradox about investing in real estate is that although it has had god awful results for years now most places, it is probably also the one successful investment most people make in their lifetimes. It is uniquely the single investment for most of us where we are allowed the kind of investment leverage that goes with it [low downpayment] at no risk of margin calls. Not to say that it is free of risk, but then again you can manipulate your occupancy as you note.

It also is probably the most common way to get wealth for those who get rich in their lifetimes [at least I suspect that].

Nonetheless, personally, I have never had much taste for investing in real estate, even though purchasing my current residence has worked out very well at great leverage.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
toastcmu
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January 21st, 2011 at 8:11:32 AM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

The paradox about investing in real estate is that although it has had god awful results for years now most places, it is probably also the one successful investment most people make in their lifetimes.



With the losses in NV and other places (here in DC included, my neighbor bought right at the peak and has lost 40%), I'm reminded of the oil bust in Houston.

My parents bought their house in 1981 from an individual who built the house in 1976 for 125k. My folks paid 75k if I'm not mistaken. Currently, almost 40 years later, the house finally has a fair mkt value of about 110-120k. Here's to hoping it won't take that long to recover, but I'm hesitant to say that real estate will be a positive gain for many years. Esp, with many houses still falling into foreclosure nationwide.

-B
FleaStiff
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January 21st, 2011 at 8:52:00 AM permalink
Single Family Homes are ill-liquid and obviously can't flee. Homeowner Associations can assess people just so the association can put the money in the bank and merely have it available for later use. Several cities have taxed the SFH into confiscatory tax rates. San Diego may be able to stave off bankruptcy but I think its pension problems will force it into bankruptcy court. A few cities in northern California either are already in bankruptcy court or soon will be. The State of California can not legally go bankrupt, no state can, but Illinois is close to having creditors simply refuse to do business with it since their commercial paper is a pain to collect on.

Alot of cities tried to lure industry with tax breaks but that Fort Collins, Colorado said decades ago: there is no free ride. Fort Collins has a high quality of life in its parks and schools and roads. Other cities gave away the tax revenue in order to lure industry and therefore had no money for parks, roads, courthouses, etc.

Real estate sharpies abound. They usually get out before the collapse, but not always. Many California sharpies are leaving the state others are fleeing to the smaller cities. For a long time those tee shirts that read University of California at Eugene, Oregon were a joke, but for some time now Californians have been selling out and renovating commercial buildings in Oregon. I heard one real estate salesman double the size of a lot in about one minute. I've heard a sharpie say "fair market price" to a potential buyer who had asked about "fair market value". Buyer probably thought they meant the same thing! Fool!

Appraisals? Hah! I saw one homeowner walk out and hand the appraiser a bottle of wine (with three hundred-dollar bills wrapped around the neck). I know one man in Phoenix bought three homes and each and everyone was substantially below appraised value. Anyone think he was lucky or that appraised value was a meaningless term there?
FarFromVegas
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January 21st, 2011 at 9:20:56 AM permalink
Quote: FleaStiff



Appraisals? Hah! I saw one homeowner walk out and hand the appraiser a bottle of wine (with three hundred-dollar bills wrapped around the neck). I know one man in Phoenix bought three homes and each and everyone was substantially below appraised value. Anyone think he was lucky or that appraised value was a meaningless term there?



The appraisal basically is for the mortgage company and tax assessment. You want it to be appraised high so you can qualify for a mortgage but you want it low for taxation purposes. If he can't unload the houses at the assessed value he's overpaying taxes.

My sister had an appraisal business but she refused to overvalue homes, so she threw in the towel and went back to her old job at a law firm and now she's foreclosing on a bunch of those overvalued homes with inflated mortgages.

Real estate investing ain't for the faint of heart. Our renters pay the mortgage but we pay out of pocket for utilities and repairs. We won't see the profit until the mortgage is paid off or we sell. It's not a liquid investment by a long shot.
Each of us is entitled to his own opinion, but not to his own facts. Preparing for a fight about your bad decision is not as smart as making a good decision.
AZDuffman
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January 21st, 2011 at 9:30:14 AM permalink
Quote: FleaStiff


Appraisals? Hah! I saw one homeowner walk out and hand the appraiser a bottle of wine (with three hundred-dollar bills wrapped around the neck). I know one man in Phoenix bought three homes and each and everyone was substantially below appraised value. Anyone think he was lucky or that appraised value was a meaningless term there?



It used to be far worse, mortgage brokers used to be able to use their own appraisal. One condo owner insisted on waiting 3 weeks for an identical unit to close so the "comps" would justify his value. One townhome owner said his place should be worth more because "it had a better view"-that one I shut down right away. I was too new in the industry at first to realize how bad it was. Later I flatly refused to upgrade an appraisal unless they couold show the square footage was incorrect or an intelligent analysis showing why the value was low. For today's refis under various "affordability" programs they merely ask the borrower what it is worth then do an outside appraisal with NO VALUE BY THE APPRAISER!

Scary.
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others
EvenBob
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January 21st, 2011 at 5:08:34 PM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit


It also is probably the most common way to get wealth for those who get rich in their lifetimes [at least I suspect that].



Its a relatively new thing. If you bought a house in 1900, by 1940, adjusting for inflation, it was worth about what you paid for it. It wasn't till after WWII that things changed, and not till the 70's that they started to go nuts. Real estate in NYC and other big cities has always been a good investment, but it took the rest of the country a long time to catch up. People like Bob Hope and Bing Crosby started buying land in SoCal in the late 30's on speculation, and it made them fabulously wealthy. But before then, buying property was always a crapshoot. It might go up, it might not. We might be back to those days again.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
boymimbo
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January 21st, 2011 at 8:42:38 PM permalink
Hey, Mike, would you consider being my slum lord?

The problem with long distance rentals is fining a good property management company and then finding good renters. When we were living in Seattle in the good times, we trusted in what we thought was a reputable property management company (a major real estate company) to vet renters and rent out our home while we were living in Canada. It turned out that the company put one of their "friends" in there, and he constantly was late on his rent. The reputable company refused to evict him. We eventually found out that the company misrepresented his credit rating to us and lied about his job references. Needless the say, we settled with the property mangement company out of court but that put us with a real bad taste of landlording it.

But I agree that if you can stomach being a landlord and can afford to buy a home in Vegas, do it. Prices for fantastic sized home are sickeningly cheap.
----- You want the truth! You can't handle the truth!
JIMMYFOCKER
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January 24th, 2011 at 7:16:48 PM permalink
Appears to be a great time to buy!
discflicker
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January 24th, 2011 at 9:46:28 PM permalink
Anyone seen Detroit lately?

http://spikersystems.com/FlashNet_Pointer/www/documents/TheSmellOfDefeat.htm


marty
The difference between zero and the smallest possible number? It doesn't matter; once you cross that edge, it might as well be the difference between zero and 1. The difference between infinity and reality? They are mutually exclusive.
EvenBob
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January 24th, 2011 at 9:51:20 PM permalink
Quote: discflicker

Anyone seen Detroit lately?

http://spikersystems.com/FlashNet_Pointer/www/documents/TheSmellOfDefeat.htm


marty



A million people still live in Detroit, I wouldn't get too worried.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
discflicker
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January 24th, 2011 at 10:20:17 PM permalink
WRONG.

BE WORRIED.
The difference between zero and the smallest possible number? It doesn't matter; once you cross that edge, it might as well be the difference between zero and 1. The difference between infinity and reality? They are mutually exclusive.
EvenBob
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January 24th, 2011 at 10:41:56 PM permalink
Quote: discflicker

WRONG.

BE WORRIED.



"2009 population estimates Detroit at 821,792"
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
rxwine
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January 25th, 2011 at 2:18:11 AM permalink
When was the last year Detroit was the go to place to live anyway?
There's no secret. Just know what you're talking about before you open your mouth.
JIMMYFOCKER
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January 25th, 2011 at 3:54:25 AM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

Quote: discflicker

Anyone seen Detroit lately?

http://spikersystems.com/FlashNet_Pointer/www/documents/TheSmellOfDefeat.htm


marty



A million people still live in Detroit, I wouldn't get too worried.




Hard to believe, but true.
SFB
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January 25th, 2011 at 6:42:37 AM permalink
Quote: JIMMYFOCKER

Quote: EvenBob

Quote: discflicker

Anyone seen Detroit lately?

http://spikersystems.com/FlashNet_Pointer/www/documents/TheSmellOfDefeat.htm


marty



A million people still live in Detroit, I wouldn't get too worried.




Hard to believe, but true.



Jimmy and Disc:

Your both wrong.

Unless you want to say that those 822k people do not matter. They still live there. And there is plenty of industry left in the city.

I grew up there, and have my diploma from the Detroit High School.

While the East Side of Detroit is slowly going back to the weeds, Downtown, and the West and Southwest areas of the city are relatively stable.

The Southwest side is doing well due to the Latino population. From 1990 to 2000 census, it actualy GAINED population, a trend that probably continued to 2010.

Truthfully, there probably are very few residential streets in Detroit that are not missing any where from 1% to 20% of thier housing stock. (Bad teeth I like to call them...) The crack wars of the 80s did in so many houses, and then neglect and slow government response doomed the rest.

But there is still a whole lot of economic activity going on. Mayor Bing, being an outsider, and somewhat above it all, MAY be able to makes some changes..... That make a difference going forward. Kwame was a disaster, as was Coleman Young, the wrong person at the wrong time. Coleman could have worked better within the region, but did not, and corruption and plain "Who gives a sh!t" management started. Kwame, mayor during a period of growth overall for the area, just didn't use that oppurtunity for the betterment of the city.

And in comparision, LV will be fine. The casinos will pump out the tax dollars, and the houses, now revalued to a true FMV, will get sold and occupied. There are still millions of baby boomers waiting to retire....

SFB
discflicker
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January 25th, 2011 at 1:33:31 PM permalink
If you haven't been here lately, please dont make assumptions and blind comments. I was born and raised here, lived here all my life.

Something horrible is going on in the past few years, something beyond belief and under the radar. Of course there are still some people here, but the core of the city is abandoned and rotting from the inside out; from downtown out past 6 mile road, MOST OF THE HOMES ARE GONE. MOST OF THE INDUSTRIES ARE GONE. Most of this happened suddenly over the past 5 years.

Get on YouTube and see the videos of miles after mile vacant lots and abandoned factories. I swear it looks like a bomb went off. WORSE!



Be that as it may, at least Detroit isn't faced with a looming built-in natrual disaster, like much of the Southwest U.S. is... I'm talking about the total dependence upon the Colorado river, and the fact that it wont be able to sustain the expected population when global warming and the loss of Lake Mead is taken into account. Talk about a house of cards!

Detroit has ALL THE FRESH WATER in the world rushing right by the front door. I don't think Vegas will ever come back when you consider the future cost of a gallon of Nevada water.

So THERE, Vegas!
The difference between zero and the smallest possible number? It doesn't matter; once you cross that edge, it might as well be the difference between zero and 1. The difference between infinity and reality? They are mutually exclusive.
JIMMYFOCKER
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January 25th, 2011 at 1:49:56 PM permalink
Quote: discflicker

If you haven't been here lately, please dont make assumptions and blind comments. I was born and raised here, lived here all my life.

Something horrible is going on in the past few years, something beyond belief and under the radar. Of course there are still some people here, but the core of the city is abandoned and rotting from the inside out; from downtown out past 6 mile road, MOST OF THE HOMES ARE GONE. MOST OF THE INDUSTRIES ARE GONE. Most of this happened suddenly over the past 5 years.

Get on YouTube and see the videos of miles after mile vacant lots and abandoned factories. I swear it looks like a bomb went off. WORSE!



Be that as it may, at least Detroit isn't faced with a looming built-in natrual disaster, like much of the Southwest U.S. is... I'm talking about the total dependence upon the Colorado river, and the fact that it wont be able to sustain the expected population when global warming and the loss of Lake Mead is taken into account. Talk about a house of cards!

Detroit has ALL THE FRESH WATER in the world rushing right by the front door. I don't think Vegas will ever come back when you consider the future cost of a gallon of Nevada water.

So THERE, Vegas!




Ok, what is the cost of a gallon of water in Vegas going to cost in 2050, please enlighten me.
midwestgb
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January 25th, 2011 at 2:38:25 PM permalink
Great point about the river and Lake Mead. Talked to a lady recently who is a life-long Vegas resident of 40 years - she said she never visits the Lake anymore with her family as it makes her sick to remember the water level of her youth, and see those water marks on the hills surrounding the lake now. And what awaits?
discflicker
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January 25th, 2011 at 2:45:33 PM permalink
Exactly!!

I come to Vegas at least once a year for the past 30 years or so. I LOVE the mountains and canyons. I often drive loops like to Laughlan and back. When I drive through the desert, I think about all the vast land and how it all depends on a few little rivers.

I see the Lake Mead water level decreasing every year.


How come nobody discusses this when they talk about new developments and subdivisions? Why don't people face the truth about the future of the Southwest?


???


Like I said, look at the map... Detroit has all the fresh water in the world.

What are you gonna do when there isn't enough water in Lake Mead to spin the turbines?
The difference between zero and the smallest possible number? It doesn't matter; once you cross that edge, it might as well be the difference between zero and 1. The difference between infinity and reality? They are mutually exclusive.
boymimbo
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January 25th, 2011 at 2:59:06 PM permalink
discflicker makes a good point, but while Detroit may never run out of water, all Los Angeles will do is desalinize. Las Vegas will be fine.
----- You want the truth! You can't handle the truth!
JIMMYFOCKER
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January 25th, 2011 at 2:59:24 PM permalink
Enough water to spin the turbines?
Again, what year could this possibly take place, 2100?
boymimbo
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January 25th, 2011 at 3:07:58 PM permalink
Actually, I stand corrected. While this year has been very wet, and they're projecting adding 30 feet of depth back to Lake Mead this spring, long term projections show the snowpack decreasing by up to 45 percent and continued dry and hot spells. Meanwhile the states and Mexico who signed the 1992 compact are overusing the resources terribly which is contributing to Lake Mead. Latest forecasts predict a 50/50 probability that Mead will run dry by 2021.

While there are strategies to reduce deliveries should the lake get lower, it may not be enough due to predicted changes to climate.
----- You want the truth! You can't handle the truth!
JIMMYFOCKER
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January 25th, 2011 at 3:18:24 PM permalink
Ok, it goes bone dry in 2021, what happens to Vegas?
discflicker
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January 25th, 2011 at 3:21:32 PM permalink
If you don't believe in global warming, fine.

If you do, and if you compound this with the growing population/water demands, depletion/polution of our aquafers, and the increased costs for energy needed to pump water over some of the mountain passes and to run desalinization plants will be prohibitive. That means it will all soon look like Detroit... it doesnt take much to tip the boat over. As more and more California cities become bankrobbbed and abandoned, it will cost even more to clean it all up.

If we were gonna try to re-build Detroit, we would first have to spend billions to clean up what's been abandoned and left to rot.

Now multiply that by a scale... for each Detroit City block that needs to be cleaned up, an entire Southwest US CITY will need to be cleaned up, starting with Vegas and working toward the Pacific Ocean.

If it actually takes until 2100 for Lake Mead to dry up, will it be any better then? Why?

So,

Are things really THIS bad in Nevada?

I would say YES.
The difference between zero and the smallest possible number? It doesn't matter; once you cross that edge, it might as well be the difference between zero and 1. The difference between infinity and reality? They are mutually exclusive.
boymimbo
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January 25th, 2011 at 3:21:53 PM permalink
Correct me if I am wrong, but I think they are building a new intake out of the bottom of the lake that will actually suck it dry, and the government is also trying to get a $3 billion pipeline approved for another lake further up in Nevada.
----- You want the truth! You can't handle the truth!
discflicker
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January 25th, 2011 at 3:39:29 PM permalink
We don't have any more money. That is the point.

We can't buy our way out of this one any more.

Vegas and everything downstream is all built upon a house of cards.

Its about to all fall down, right along with the property values.


Just like Denmark, the sea will eventually win.
The difference between zero and the smallest possible number? It doesn't matter; once you cross that edge, it might as well be the difference between zero and 1. The difference between infinity and reality? They are mutually exclusive.
JIMMYFOCKER
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January 25th, 2011 at 3:51:21 PM permalink
Quote: discflicker

We don't have any more money. That is the point.

We can't buy our way out of this one any more.

Vegas and everything downstream is all built upon a house of cards.

Its about to all fall down, right along with the property values.


Just like Denmark, the sea will eventually win.





Your attitude is very negative.
thecesspit
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January 25th, 2011 at 4:01:21 PM permalink
Denmark?
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
discflicker
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January 25th, 2011 at 4:17:34 PM permalink
Sorry. All I have to look at are these abandoned home and factories. In Vegas, you can look at the mountains.
The difference between zero and the smallest possible number? It doesn't matter; once you cross that edge, it might as well be the difference between zero and 1. The difference between infinity and reality? They are mutually exclusive.
mkl654321
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January 25th, 2011 at 4:35:54 PM permalink
Like any commodity, the price will gradually rise to reflect both the dwindling supply and the increasing demand.

I've read in Marc Reisner's "Cadillac Desert" that a fair water bill for the average household in the southwestern states should be about $600 a month, if all the costs associated with delivering that water were borne by the consumers, rather than the American taxpayer. Las Vegas, as well as California and Arizona, were the beneficiaries of a gigantic wealth redistribution scheme (the water projects starting with Hoover Dam and ending with the CAP) that had a shockingly low cost:benefit ratio (by the most charitable estimates, 50 cents of benefit for every dollar spent).

So will Vegas run out of water? No. Will it be treated as the scarce commodity that it is, and should be? Yes. If and when that water bill hits $600 a month, people will be taking lots of navy showers, flushing the toilet once a day or less, and redecorating their front yards with cacti and flagstones instead of grass.

The only reason for any water "shortage" in the Pacific Southwest, in other words, is that it's artificially cheap, because its delivery is heavily subsidized. Therefore consumption is artificially high.
The fact that a believer is happier than a skeptic is no more to the point than the fact that a drunken man is happier than a sober one. The happiness of credulity is a cheap and dangerous quality.---George Bernard Shaw
pacomartin
pacomartin
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January 25th, 2011 at 6:16:23 PM permalink
Quote: discflicker

Just like Denmark, the sea will eventually win.



The little Dutch boy was fighting against the sea. If the sea floods Denmark than the whole world is in trouble.

Denmark is "There is something rotten in the state of ...".
aahigh
aahigh
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January 26th, 2011 at 12:14:15 AM permalink
I bought here in Vegas in April 2010 for about 60% below the previous sales price for a home built in 2005 with a pool and two waterfalls in my back yard in a community with a golf course with an amazing clubhouse including all kinds of amenities (Rhodes Ranch). I got 4.25% interest on a 15 year loan and my total payments including property tax are just barely over what i paid for property tax alone in California.

http://www.google.com/images?q=rhodes+ranch

Zillow reported my home value went up $4,000 in the last 30 days.

I agree with the Wizard: it's a good time to buy. Summerlin is one of the 5-7 zip codes showing YOY increases. My zip code is down 1.3% yoy, but I'm up a little since I bought less than a year ago. There are a few neighborhoods showing strength here.

I also commute 7 minutes to work (about 4 miles).

"Buy when there is blood on the streets...." People are still very pessimistic about price recoveries, but yahoo put a story out today forecasting 2% annual growth on average for Las Vegas in the next 3 years .. with a slightly negative outlook for the next 12 months. But by the time they are no longer pessimistic, there will not be such great properties at such low prices as there are now .. many are below building costs.

Already, the nicest neighborhoods (like Summerlin, Spanish Trail, and Rhodes Ranch) are already seeing significant support.
mkl654321
mkl654321
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January 26th, 2011 at 12:22:49 AM permalink
I just wonder if that's nothing more than a dead cat bounce. The thing that drags down the housing market in Vegas is the sheer amount of unsold inventory. I can't see that stabilizing for five years at least. The biggest problem in Vegas isn't the housing market, though--it's unemployment. And I can't see THAT getting better before, oh, say, 2070.
The fact that a believer is happier than a skeptic is no more to the point than the fact that a drunken man is happier than a sober one. The happiness of credulity is a cheap and dangerous quality.---George Bernard Shaw
rxwine
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January 26th, 2011 at 1:13:02 AM permalink
Emigration is having some effect though. That is, people have left the state in search of better prospects. Less people to support, less of a burden on a downsized economy. I also suspect as Las Vegas(and Nevada) has been a top news item for mention of the recession effects, that it is not attracting as many people looking for opportunity as it may have in the past.
There's no secret. Just know what you're talking about before you open your mouth.
JIMMYFOCKER
JIMMYFOCKER
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January 26th, 2011 at 5:54:51 AM permalink
Quote: aahigh

I bought here in Vegas in April 2010 for about 60% below the previous sales price for a home built in 2005 with a pool and two waterfalls in my back yard in a community with a golf course with an amazing clubhouse including all kinds of amenities (Rhodes Ranch). I got 4.25% interest on a 15 year loan and my total payments including property tax are just barely over what i paid for property tax alone in California.

http://www.google.com/images?q=rhodes+ranch

Zillow reported my home value went up $4,000 in the last 30 days.

I agree with the Wizard: it's a good time to buy. Summerlin is one of the 5-7 zip codes showing YOY increases. My zip code is down 1.3% yoy, but I'm up a little since I bought less than a year ago. There are a few neighborhoods showing strength here.

I also commute 7 minutes to work (about 4 miles).

"Buy when there is blood on the streets...." People are still very pessimistic about price recoveries, but yahoo put a story out today forecasting 2% annual growth on average for Las Vegas in the next 3 years .. with a slightly negative outlook for the next 12 months. But by the time they are no longer pessimistic, there will not be such great properties at such low prices as there are now .. many are below building costs.

Already, the nicest neighborhoods (like Summerlin, Spanish Trail, and Rhodes Ranch) are already seeing significant support.




With a mere 2% annual growth, one would be better off just renting if one was only concerned financially with living arrangements.

Now I understand the pride of ownership, etc., etc., but just sayin.
JIMMYFOCKER
JIMMYFOCKER
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January 26th, 2011 at 6:11:04 AM permalink
Quote: JIMMYFOCKER

With a mere 2% annual growth, one would be better off just renting if one was only concerned financially with living arrangements.

Now I understand the pride of ownership, etc., etc., but just sayin.




Rhodes Ranch is a good location, very good.
aahigh
aahigh
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January 26th, 2011 at 8:00:18 AM permalink
You are right about investments. There is a lot of overhead to make a profit from selling a house. If you want to make a lot of money, renting here and investing your cash at the tables isn't a bad strategy. When you get enough cash, just buy the house you want with cash!
JIMMYFOCKER
JIMMYFOCKER
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January 26th, 2011 at 8:01:51 AM permalink
Quote: aahigh

You are right about investments. There is a lot of overhead to make a profit from selling a house. If you want to make a lot of money, renting here and investing your cash at the tables isn't a bad strategy. When you get enough cash, just buy the house you want with cash!




Absolutely terriffic advice!
Wizard
Administrator
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January 26th, 2011 at 8:45:51 AM permalink
Quote: boymimbo

Hey, Mike, would you consider being my slum lord?



I'm afraid not. However, I can recommend the property management company that oversees my rental house. It is just a couple of people but they have done a good job for me.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
AZDuffman
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January 26th, 2011 at 8:55:04 AM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

Quote: discflicker

Anyone seen Detroit lately?

http://spikersystems.com/FlashNet_Pointer/www/documents/TheSmellOfDefeat.htm


marty



A million people still live in Detroit, I wouldn't get too worried.



Be careful, you are starting to sound like a certain someone who argued about Detroit being destroyed a few months back.
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others
JIMMYFOCKER
JIMMYFOCKER
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January 26th, 2011 at 9:19:11 AM permalink
I can't imagine someone wanting to live in Detroit when there are hundreds of other great places to live.
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