Odds of Earth strike

Now 1.5% of Asteroid 40-60 meters diameter in 2032.

Let betting commence.

Quote: rxwine

Now 1.5% of Asteroid 40-60 meters diameter in 2032.

Let betting commence.
link to original post

I can’t imagine we can’t shatter something that small with 7 years to prepare. I’d bet the ‘no’ on any significant impact.

Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: rxwine

Now 1.5% of Asteroid 40-60 meters diameter in 2032.

Let betting commence.
link to original post

I can’t imagine we can’t shatter something that small with 7 years to prepare. I’d bet the ‘no’ on any significant impact.
link to original post

Can we hit something that small moving at that speed?

Quote: billryan

Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: rxwine

Now 1.5% of Asteroid 40-60 meters diameter in 2032.

Let betting commence.
link to original post

I can’t imagine we can’t shatter something that small with 7 years to prepare. I’d bet the ‘no’ on any significant impact.
link to original post

Can we hit something that small moving at that speed?
link to original post

Israel can. Piece of cake.

Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: billryan

Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: rxwine

Now 1.5% of Asteroid 40-60 meters diameter in 2032.

Let betting commence.
link to original post

I can’t imagine we can’t shatter something that small with 7 years to prepare. I’d bet the ‘no’ on any significant impact.
link to original post

Can we hit something that small moving at that speed?
link to original post

Israel can. Piece of cake.
link to original post

An asteroid travels two or three times faster than a ballistic missile. They might have the capacity but they've never done anything close to this.

Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: rxwine

Now 1.5% of Asteroid 40-60 meters diameter in 2032.

Let betting commence.
link to original post

I can’t imagine we can’t shatter something that small with 7 years to prepare. I’d bet the ‘no’ on any significant impact.
link to original post

Shatter it, perhaps. But momentum must be conserved. An asteroid that could hit us will hit us with a speed between the escape velocity of the earth and the escape velocity of the sun. so something has to happen to the momentum of whatever shape the mass is in after we nuke it, it doesn't just go away. So all the pieces of it will still hit us if we are not effective.

The most effective thing we could probably do is steer it. Either just make it miss the earth, or steer it into the moon or Venus and be done with it once and for all. The easiest way to steer it would be to park a spaceship alongside it in the direction we want it to move, and as gravity pulls the ship towards the 'stroid, it also pulls the 'stroid towards the ship, and we use the spaceship's thrusters to maintain distance.

How fast we can move the asteroid will depend on how heavy the spaceship and everything on it is, and how long we can move it for depends on how much thruster fuel we have. So we might have a new role for Elon. And for Lizzo.

Quote: AutomaticMonkey

Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: rxwine

Now 1.5% of Asteroid 40-60 meters diameter in 2032.

Let betting commence.
link to original post

I can’t imagine we can’t shatter something that small with 7 years to prepare. I’d bet the ‘no’ on any significant impact.
link to original post

Shatter it, perhaps. But momentum must be conserved. An asteroid that could hit us will hit us with a speed between the escape velocity of the earth and the escape velocity of the sun. so something has to happen to the momentum of whatever shape the mass is in after we nuke it, it doesn't just go away. So all the pieces of it will still hit us if we are not effective.

they need to decide if broken up is better than staying in one piece. Do they know?

Quote:

The most effective thing we could probably do is steer it. Either just make it miss the earth, or steer it into the moon or Venus and be done with it once and for all. The easiest way to steer it would be to park a spaceship alongside it in the direction we want it to move, and as gravity pulls the ship towards the 'stroid, it also pulls the 'stroid towards the ship, and we use the spaceship's thrusters to maintain distance.

I've heard of this. It could follow behind it, not needing the thrusters, or perhaps using the thrusters to accelerate the object. I wonder how heavy the craft should be to effect a permanent solution? I think it's all harder than it sounds. And there's the OG theory* to think of, but if you don't check in at DT you know nothing about it !!!

Quote:

How fast we can move the asteroid will depend on how heavy the spaceship and everything on it is, and how long we can move it for depends on how much thruster fuel we have. So we might have a new role for Elon. And for Lizzo.
link to original post

PS they have landed on comets which are definitely speeding along I think

* this theory states that an object that begins to do near misses eventually will collide with Earth. Changing a course only slightly might mean the fix has to be repeated.

the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder

I think they definitely need to practice on this one, which has enough danger level to justify spending some money, but in case what they try doesn't work out the way they think, it shouldn't make it much worse