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EvenBob
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November 24th, 2025 at 11:31:23 AM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

In alternative history you can go back and change some of Hitler's mistakes, or imagine Eisenhower misjudged the weather and it was awful on D-day causing failure, and have the war continue on for an extra year.

the Germans should thank their lucky stars this didn't happen. The atomic bombs would have been dropped on them
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It's interesting the number Japanese lives that were saved by dropping the a-bombs. If they had not been dropped we would have continued carpet bombing Japan and they would have lost 10 times more Japanese citizens then the a-bombs took out. The biggest mistake Japan and Germany made before World War II was severely underestimating our ability to immediately turn our economy into a war machine. We produced more planes and ships and guns and ammo and tanks then was ever thought possible in anybody's wildest imagination. The German POW's that ended up in the United States were astounded at our productivity and how little the actual War affected the lifestyle of the country. The reason we have such a large military presence everywhere to this day is to always remind people of what we're capable of so something like World War II never happens again.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
AZDuffman
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November 24th, 2025 at 11:42:50 AM permalink
Quote: billryan

I was watching a video on field artillery and came across what I found to be a fantastic statistic concerning the Battle of the Bulge.
When Hitler assembled the forces for his last-ditch effort to prolong the war, his army stockpiled 120,000 artillery shells.
In defeating them, the Allies fired over three million shells and had another two million on hand.
Every German tank that went into the battle was irreplaceable.
For each US tank that was in the battle, there were five replacements in France, three in transit by ship, and three being built.
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NUTS
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rxwine
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November 24th, 2025 at 12:19:03 PM permalink
Rent free in NYC?

https://www.youtube.com/shorts/-MgLP2Mmcck

If you don't count parking.
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GenoDRPh
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November 24th, 2025 at 12:33:45 PM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

Quote: odiousgambit

In alternative history you can go back and change some of Hitler's mistakes, or imagine Eisenhower misjudged the weather and it was awful on D-day causing failure, and have the war continue on for an extra year.

the Germans should thank their lucky stars this didn't happen. The atomic bombs would have been dropped on them
link to original post



It's interesting the number Japanese lives that were saved by dropping the a-bombs. If they had not been dropped we would have continued carpet bombing Japan and they would have lost 10 times more Japanese citizens then the a-bombs took out. The biggest mistake Japan and Germany made before World War II was severely underestimating our ability to immediately turn our economy into a war machine. We produced more planes and ships and guns and ammo and tanks then was ever thought possible in anybody's wildest imagination. The German POW's that ended up in the United States were astounded at our productivity and how little the actual War affected the lifestyle of the country. The reason we have such a large military presence everywhere to this day is to always remind people of what we're capable of so something like World War II never happens again.
link to original post



Several German and Japanese generals tried to point this out to Fuhrer and Togo. They didn't listen.
EvenBob
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November 24th, 2025 at 12:37:50 PM permalink
Quote: rxwine

Rent free in NYC?

https://www.youtube.com/shorts/-MgLP2Mmcck

If you don't count parking.
link to original post



Living in an RV in New York City has been going on for years and years and years. It's a huge problem because you constantly have to move, you constantly get vandalized if you leave it for very long, it's mostly illegal everywhere in New York City.

"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
billryan
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November 24th, 2025 at 1:00:52 PM permalink
Quote: rxwine

Rent free in NYC?

https://www.youtube.com/shorts/-MgLP2Mmcck

If you don't count parking.
link to original post



That is the problem. Most city streets are either metered or are set up so you can't park a large RV without blocking someone's driveway.
It's possible, and a few people have lived in the city for years. There are even some people who live on their boats in the Hudson, although the city cracked down on this in the 1990s when a boat colony sprang up.
The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
rxwine
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November 26th, 2025 at 5:34:42 AM permalink
Wow, there's a high-rise fire in Hong Kong in 7 buildings. The building houses 4000 people and the buildings have fire coming out all the windows all the way up.
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billryan
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November 26th, 2025 at 8:19:14 AM permalink
The footage is horrifying. I'm amazed the death toll is so low, or at least that's what's being reported.
The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
SOOPOO
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November 26th, 2025 at 8:38:51 AM permalink
Quote: rxwine

Wow, there's a high-rise fire in Hong Kong in 7 buildings. The building houses 4000 people and the buildings have fire coming out all the windows all the way up.
link to original post



I’ve been to HK. I remember thinking the majority of their apartment buildings looked like fire traps. Laundry hanging out the windows. The apartments so small your cleaning solvents are near the heaters. Fire escapes you need to be a trapeze artist to use successfully.
billryan
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November 29th, 2025 at 12:14:24 PM permalink
When overnight success leads to utter failure.

About a year ago, I stumbled upon the website of a custom toy soldier maker in Wisconsin. It was pretty sparse, but I ordered a couple of pieces and was very happy with his work. When I tried to order more, he wasn't taking new orders, as he is a one-man shop with a single printer. About a month later, I got an email that he was taking new orders, and he opened an Etsy account to sell his goods.
People liked his stuff, but many commented they'd prefer 54 MM or even 60 MM to the 50 MM scale he was using. He started offering a base model, a 54MM option for 10% more, and a 60MM option for 20% more. Sales were very good and he hired two kids to help him ship his products.
Someplace along the line, I'd emailed him a question and he called me back. It turned out he was only sixteen and still in high school.
Two YouTube videos brought in several hundred orders. By the end of the summer, he was making ten items a day but receiving twice as many orders. Lots of money was coming in, but it seemed like more was going into production than was being sold. His parents got involved as people tried to cancel their late orders but there was no money to be had. As he had hundreds of orders, with most being in the $50-$100 range, it became a serious matter.
It turned out his original pricing was correct, but his optional prices ruined him. A 40MM Tiger Tank sold for $19.99 while a 60MM sold for $24.99. The problem was that the larger scale used nearly twice the material and energy to produce, and he was actually losing money on each larger piece he sold. He's out of cash, and owes people either refunds or products he can't afford to make.
Another toy soldier collector has stepped in to try and help out, infusing some cash into the company, but they've been forced to raise prices so the larger tank now retails for $45 instead of $25, and a bunch of collectors, in a very niche market, are quite unhappy.
The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
DRich
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November 29th, 2025 at 1:05:18 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: rxwine

Wow, there's a high-rise fire in Hong Kong in 7 buildings. The building houses 4000 people and the buildings have fire coming out all the windows all the way up.
link to original post



I’ve been to HK. I remember thinking the majority of their apartment buildings looked like fire traps. Laundry hanging out the windows. The apartments so small your cleaning solvents are near the heaters. Fire escapes you need to be a trapeze artist to use successfully.
link to original post



From what I heard on the news, Hong Kong actually has decent building codes and many were surprised by this. Of course, if you put wooden scaffolding up the entirety of a building I guess that may change some of the characteristics.
You can't know everything, but you can know anything.
Dieter
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November 29th, 2025 at 3:22:26 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: rxwine

Wow, there's a high-rise fire in Hong Kong in 7 buildings. The building houses 4000 people and the buildings have fire coming out all the windows all the way up.
link to original post



I’ve been to HK. I remember thinking the majority of their apartment buildings looked like fire traps. Laundry hanging out the windows. The apartments so small your cleaning solvents are near the heaters. Fire escapes you need to be a trapeze artist to use successfully.
link to original post



I remember that predominantly in KWC.
Other areas seemed mostly OK, although... cozy.
Really bougie apartments had a private balcony leading to a separate "maid's quarters", where hired help imported from poorer countries could be accomodated. The "maid's quarters" and balcony did have laundry hanging, but not generally over the edge.
May the cards fall in your favor.
AutomaticMonkey
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December 1st, 2025 at 6:35:11 PM permalink
Have you ever scromited?

https://gizmodo.com/cannabis-induced-scromiting-is-on-the-rise-study-finds-2000691530

What a horrible condition to have! Vomiting so painful you are simultaneously screaming in agony.

Videos of this should be made and shown to young people in schools to inform them of the risks of drugs and their overconsumption. We have no problems showing the lungs of a cigarette smoker from an autopsy to educate on the harms of that habit. Most of us got to see movies with titles like "Red Asphalt" and "Flesh, Metal, and Glass" to discourage drunken driving and unsafe driving in general. Seeing this, people heaving and screaming from too much pot, will be fair warning that with habitual and excessive consumption, you too may scromit.
rxwine
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December 1st, 2025 at 7:04:05 PM permalink
Quote: AutomaticMonkey

Have you ever scromited?

https://gizmodo.com/cannabis-induced-scromiting-is-on-the-rise-study-finds-2000691530

What a horrible condition to have! Vomiting so painful you are simultaneously screaming in agony.

Videos of this should be made and shown to young people in schools to inform them of the risks of drugs and their overconsumption. We have no problems showing the lungs of a cigarette smoker from an autopsy to educate on the harms of that habit. Most of us got to see movies with titles like "Red Asphalt" and "Flesh, Metal, and Glass" to discourage drunken driving and unsafe driving in general. Seeing this, people heaving and screaming from too much pot, will be fair warning that with habitual and excessive consumption, you too may scromit.
link to original post



The original uncultivated plant usually wasn't that strong. People had to start messing with it, which wouldn't be surprising to me, that it might have created a problem that wasn't there before.
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billryan
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December 1st, 2025 at 7:28:42 PM permalink
People underestimate the effects of edibles. They take some, and when it doesn't kick in, they take more. Unlike smoking it, edibles take time to be effective, and if you don't wait, you can take too much. I don't recommend them.
The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
AutomaticMonkey
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December 1st, 2025 at 10:28:25 PM permalink
Quote: rxwine

Quote: AutomaticMonkey

Have you ever scromited?

https://gizmodo.com/cannabis-induced-scromiting-is-on-the-rise-study-finds-2000691530

What a horrible condition to have! Vomiting so painful you are simultaneously screaming in agony.

Videos of this should be made and shown to young people in schools to inform them of the risks of drugs and their overconsumption. We have no problems showing the lungs of a cigarette smoker from an autopsy to educate on the harms of that habit. Most of us got to see movies with titles like "Red Asphalt" and "Flesh, Metal, and Glass" to discourage drunken driving and unsafe driving in general. Seeing this, people heaving and screaming from too much pot, will be fair warning that with habitual and excessive consumption, you too may scromit.
link to original post



The original uncultivated plant usually wasn't that strong. People had to start messing with it, which wouldn't be surprising to me, that it might have created a problem that wasn't there before.
link to original post



And the heavy users are beyond any plant now. Along with the edibles and the vapes, it's concentrated hash oil, and with special equipment for smoking the oil directly, not just putting some on a joint or cigarette like they used to. What next, inject it?

Concentrating anything can do that, and probably no one died of alcohol poisoning before we learned to distill. Without hard liquor you really can't get it down your throat fast enough to get a lethal dose before you pass out.
AZDuffman
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December 2nd, 2025 at 4:13:38 AM permalink
Quote: billryan

When overnight success leads to utter failure.

About a year ago, I stumbled upon the website of a custom toy soldier maker in Wisconsin. It was pretty sparse, but I ordered a couple of pieces and was very happy with his work. When I tried to order more, he wasn't taking new orders, as he is a one-man shop with a single printer. About a month later, I got an email that he was taking new orders, and he opened an Etsy account to sell his goods.
People liked his stuff, but many commented they'd prefer 54 MM or even 60 MM to the 50 MM scale he was using. He started offering a base model, a 54MM option for 10% more, and a 60MM option for 20% more. Sales were very good and he hired two kids to help him ship his products.
Someplace along the line, I'd emailed him a question and he called me back. It turned out he was only sixteen and still in high school.
Two YouTube videos brought in several hundred orders. By the end of the summer, he was making ten items a day but receiving twice as many orders. Lots of money was coming in, but it seemed like more was going into production than was being sold. His parents got involved as people tried to cancel their late orders but there was no money to be had. As he had hundreds of orders, with most being in the $50-$100 range, it became a serious matter.
It turned out his original pricing was correct, but his optional prices ruined him. A 40MM Tiger Tank sold for $19.99 while a 60MM sold for $24.99. The problem was that the larger scale used nearly twice the material and energy to produce, and he was actually losing money on each larger piece he sold. He's out of cash, and owes people either refunds or products he can't afford to make.
Another toy soldier collector has stepped in to try and help out, infusing some cash into the company, but they've been forced to raise prices so the larger tank now retails for $45 instead of $25, and a bunch of collectors, in a very niche market, are quite unhappy.
link to original post



This kind of thing happens to people. It happens in the business world. Happened at a place I worked.

People who are creative usually are less than aware of costs. My mother and her sister were in a business selling custom dog treats. I asked the unit cost, they did not know. I started calculating cost of ingredients by the cup, etc. I forget how it turned out, they did not do it much longer.
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others
Tanko
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December 2nd, 2025 at 6:39:55 AM permalink
Three new casinos approved for NYC. Two in Queens and one in the Bronx. All will be completed within five years.

From the article:

Grace Ying, who has lived in Flushing for more than 32 years, said she was “devastated” about the Cohen-backed casino getting the greenlight.

“They keep talking about how many jobs this will bring, but think about how many lives this will ruin,” said Ying, 65, who fought the proposal from its inception.

“Many people in my community suffer from gambling addictions, and the only thing that holds them back from throwing their money away is the distance from here to where the casinos are,” she added. “Now they won’t be able to help themselves. It’s like putting a liquor store in front of an alcoholic.
JohnPeterson
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December 2nd, 2025 at 6:48:07 AM permalink
Haha, that sounds about right.
JohnPeterson
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December 2nd, 2025 at 6:48:38 AM permalink
When I lived in New York, I saw these kinds of things every day.
AZDuffman
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December 2nd, 2025 at 7:43:11 AM permalink
Quote: Tanko

Three new casinos approved for NYC. Two in Queens and one in the Bronx. All will be completed within five years.

From the article:

Grace Ying, who has lived in Flushing for more than 32 years, said she was “devastated” about the Cohen-backed casino getting the greenlight.

“They keep talking about how many jobs this will bring, but think about how many lives this will ruin,” said Ying, 65, who fought the proposal from its inception.

“Many people in my community suffer from gambling addictions, and the only thing that holds them back from throwing their money away is the distance from here to where the casinos are,” she added. “Now they won’t be able to help themselves. It’s like putting a liquor store in front of an alcoholic.
link to original post



If you live in NYC you can easily find places to gamble without setting foot in a live casino.
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others
avianrandy
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December 2nd, 2025 at 1:05:50 PM permalink
Just walking down the street or getting on the subway seems to be a gamble in NYC
DRich
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December 2nd, 2025 at 5:48:08 PM permalink
Quote: avianrandy

Just walking down the street or getting on the subway seems to be a gamble in NYC
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I am guessing that you haven't spent much time in New York City. I never felt unsafe in NYC during the daytime. Granted, there were areas I avoided at night.
You can't know everything, but you can know anything.
billryan
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December 2nd, 2025 at 6:20:50 PM permalink
Quote: DRich

Quote: avianrandy

Just walking down the street or getting on the subway seems to be a gamble in NYC
link to original post



I am guessing that you haven't spent much time in New York City. I never felt unsafe in NYC during the daytime. Granted, there were areas I avoided at night.
link to original post



No one goes to NYC anymore. It's too crowded.
The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
avianrandy
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December 2nd, 2025 at 10:29:45 PM permalink
You Are correct drich.i guess I have been influenced by what I see on the Internet and news. I have been to NYC once. Was on a class trip and we stayed at the hotel Edison. Also see Washington dc the same trip
AutomaticMonkey
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December 2nd, 2025 at 10:45:01 PM permalink
It's very situational. I'd been going to NYC regularly since the late 70s when I was barely a teen. Back then there was actually a lot more crime, but less psychopathic crime against strangers. So if you wanted to be a violent crime victim you would usually have to "get involved with something" and then someone would oblige you. Of course that applies to me and how a woman walking alone or a person who would be perceived as vulnerable would experience it might be very different. But now if you get attacked it's going to be something random and stupid, or overt racial targeting.
rxwine
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December 3rd, 2025 at 4:14:28 AM permalink
Quote: billryan



No one goes to NYC anymore. It's too crowded.
link to original post



I thought it was always crowded? I've seen pictures.

I was driving very near NYC not too long ago. Next to dodging random gunfire, that is a horrible experience.
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gordonm888
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December 3rd, 2025 at 7:20:46 AM permalink
In my youth (1970s) I have been in the South Bronx when people on the 3rd or 4th floors of the buildings were leaning out their windows and throwing bricks at people on the sidewalks. I left NYC as soon as I could and it would take a gun to my head to make me move back.

I believe that NYC has a smaller population now than it had in the 1960s. While most large cities in the world have grown tremendously in population from that time (including cities with immutable sharply-defined borders like NYC.)
Last edited by: gordonm888 on Dec 3, 2025
So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.
billryan
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December 3rd, 2025 at 7:30:20 AM permalink
Supermarkets in the Bronx sell special bricks for the residents to buy and have handy when white folks bumble by.
The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
gordonm888
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December 3rd, 2025 at 8:02:52 AM permalink
Quote: billryan

Supermarkets in the Bronx sell special bricks for the residents to buy and have handy when white folks bumble by.
link to original post



Quoted so as to preserve for review.
So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.
billryan
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December 3rd, 2025 at 8:33:33 AM permalink
Quote: AZDuffman

Quote: Tanko

Three new casinos approved for NYC. Two in Queens and one in the Bronx. All will be completed within five years.

From the article:

Grace Ying, who has lived in Flushing for more than 32 years, said she was “devastated” about the Cohen-backed casino getting the greenlight.

“They keep talking about how many jobs this will bring, but think about how many lives this will ruin,” said Ying, 65, who fought the proposal from its inception.

“Many people in my community suffer from gambling addictions, and the only thing that holds them back from throwing their money away is the distance from here to where the casinos are,” she added. “Now they won’t be able to help themselves. It’s like putting a liquor store in front of an alcoholic.
link to original post



If you live in NYC you can easily find places to gamble without setting foot in a live casino.
link to original post



At one time, there were several poker rooms in the City, but the NYPD kept breaking in and robbing folks playing a legal game. Home poker games are allowed in the state, but the NYPD seemed to see them as a personal piggy bank and would seize everyone's money and chips. I'm not aware of anyone ever getting any confiscated money back.
Most of the games moved to Long Island or Westchester, where the police departments don't have dedicated squads to raid poker games, or Brighton Beach, where the Russian mob rules.
The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
EvenBob
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December 3rd, 2025 at 11:28:44 AM permalink
Quote: DRich

Quote: avianrandy

Just walking down the street or getting on the subway seems to be a gamble in NYC
link to original post



I am guessing that you haven't spent much time in New York City. I never felt unsafe in NYC during the daytime. Granted, there were areas I avoided at night.
link to original post



So you haven't seen the video on the news of the New York college student girl getting hit in the face and dragged by her hair by a homeless guy who had been arrested 16 times for similar crimes and let go every time. The only reason they went after him is because her video got 4 million hits in a couple hours. New York City is a swell place.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
AutomaticMonkey
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December 3rd, 2025 at 12:23:47 PM permalink
Quote: gordonm888

In my youth (1970s) I have been in the South Bronx when people on the 3rd or 4th floors of the buildings were leaning out their windows and throwing bricks at people on the sidewalks. I left NYC as soon as I could and it would take a gun to my head to make me move back....
link to original post



My visits to the South Bronx have always been perfectly safe. Of course, I was going there to a sacred place, for a sacred reason! The Stadium crowd is not a wise choice of targets, unless someone thinks it's a good idea to provoke groups of boozed-up young males.

At the old Stadium depending on where you parked, your walk to the ballpark could take you past a city jail and sometimes you would hear the guests hooting and hollering in there. Good intimidation for visitor fans!
billryan
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December 3rd, 2025 at 1:34:00 PM permalink
Almost every city in this country has a no-go zone, although if Tucson has one, I'm yet to discover it.
Much of the SB and most of Brooklyn has been gentrified, yuppified, and DINKed to extremes. In the 1970s, Gleason's Gym had two armed guards to walk members to the parking lot; now there are sidewalk cafes on the block. My grandmother's house in Sunset Park sold for $29,000 in 1976, after no one in my family wanted it, and was recently on the market for $1.3 million. In fifty years, 59th St went from an Irish neighborhood to a Puerto Rican/Dominican one to a Chinese neighborhood that is now seeing Hipsters that are aging out of Williamsburg. The Basilica went from having one Polish mass on Sunday to a Spanish one, and now has multiple Chinese and Korean masses. The Catholic school I attended was mostly Irish/German and is now 100% Haitian.
The only constant is that the city continues to attract new immigrants.
The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
Wizard
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December 3rd, 2025 at 6:34:03 PM permalink
This thread has become toxic and too far removed from math/gambling. I'm closing it for at least three days to let it cool off.
"No great mind has ever existed without a touch of madness." -- Aristotle
Wizard
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December 8th, 2025 at 7:23:39 PM permalink
I'm hesitantly reopening this thread. I will have no compunction to close it again if the topic turns to racially-motivated violence.
"No great mind has ever existed without a touch of madness." -- Aristotle
lilredrooster
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December 9th, 2025 at 3:30:51 AM permalink
.
BNPL - Buy Now Pay Later is becoming a very big thing
it's Win, Win, Win
the customers spreads his payments out over a certain length of time paying no interest for their short term plans, 4 weeks or 6 weeks
so he pays less overall then by doing the same thing with a common credit card
the BNPL entity makes $ by charging the retailer a fee for the service
the retailer makes out because the consumer will often purchase more since he's paying less overall


"AI Overview

Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) has seen explosive growth in recent years, with the market expanding from billions to potentially hundreds of billions, driven by massive increases in users and transaction volumes, especially among Gen Z/millennials seeking flexible payments, with application volumes jumping from 100k daily in 2019 to over 1 million in 2022, and monthly spending rising significantly year-over-year (e.g., 21% from mid-2024 to mid-2025).

Key Growth Metrics & Trends

Market Size: The global market was valued around $6-9 billion in 2022/2024 and is projected to reach $115 billion by 2032, growing at a ~25% CAGR.

User Adoption: In the U.S., 21% of consumers with credit used BNPL in 2022 (up from 17.6% in 2021), with 90 million Americans expected to use it in 2025.

Transaction Volume: Application volumes surged from ~100,000 daily in 2019 to over 1 million daily in 2022, with a 23% transaction increase year-over-year as of late 2024."


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Buy_now,_pay_later

.
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
billryan
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December 9th, 2025 at 4:13:19 AM permalink
Win, Win, Win?

People buying groceries on a buy-now-pay-later basis are hardly a win for anyone, except the banks.

My father's generation grew up laughing at Wimpie, a character who was always asking for a hamburger today, that he would pay for next Tuesday. Now we have a generation of Wimpies buying now and paying later.
The average BNPL is under $250. What does it say when people are buying $250 items they can't afford?
When your paycheck can cover your current bills, and you have some left at the end of the month, you are on the road to success.
When this week's paycheck covers last month's groceries, you are on the slow road to Perdition.
The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
lilredrooster
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December 9th, 2025 at 4:32:00 AM permalink
Quote: billryan

Win, Win, Win?People buying groceries on a buy-now-pay-later basis are hardly a win for anyone, except the banks.


good points
the same points hold for traditional credit cards
of course the customer must get approved for these deals and not all are
but some will get in trouble with it as you indicate
many others will not, and will take advantage of the no interest deals
like so many different things in our society there are pluses and minuses

.
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
odiousgambit
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December 9th, 2025 at 4:54:04 AM permalink
At one time I really shook my head at the idea of buying gasoline with a credit card, felling it to be a sure sign someone was on the road to ruin . What? ha ha

Generally, I agree that all the stories about consumer debt are always concerning, but kind of reject the idea it's anything new or a real crisis
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
DRich
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December 9th, 2025 at 6:20:46 AM permalink
Quote: billryan

Win, Win, Win?

People buying groceries on a buy-now-pay-later basis are hardly a win for anyone, except the banks.

My father's generation grew up laughing at Wimpie, a character who was always asking for a hamburger today, that he would pay for next Tuesday. Now we have a generation of Wimpies buying now and paying later.
The average BNPL is under $250. What does it say when people are buying $250 items they can't afford?
When your paycheck can cover your current bills, and you have some left at the end of the month, you are on the road to success.
When this week's paycheck covers last month's groceries, you are on the slow road to Perdition.
link to original post



I disagree. Buy Now Pay Later is actually a great thing for people that have the money but want to defer the payment assuming no interest. My savings account pays about 4% interest, so why not continue collecting interest while you have a short term no interest loan?
You can't know everything, but you can know anything.
billryan
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December 9th, 2025 at 6:24:55 AM permalink
The latest LendingTree survey shows that 25% of BNPL purchases were for groceries, up from 14% last year.
These are not purchases made on credit cards that are paid off at the end of the month, and you earn mileage rewards. These are being used because people can't afford this month's groceries, as they are paying off last month's groceries
The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
billryan
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December 9th, 2025 at 6:33:22 AM permalink
77% of American households have consumer debt, and if you divide the total owed by consumers among breadwinners, it comes to an astonishing $66,000 per person.
When a typical 30-year-old is more likely to have $10,000 in credit card debt than in retirement savings, I worry about the future.
Consumer debt in America has nearly doubled since the 2008 crisis, and a typical household now pays more than 10 cents out of every dollar it receives to service its debts.
Those numbers may not scare you, but they should concern you.
The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
gordonm888
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December 9th, 2025 at 6:45:02 AM permalink
Quote: billryan

The latest LendingTree survey shows that 25% of BNPL purchases were for groceries, up from 14% last year.
These are not purchases made on credit cards that are paid off at the end of the month, and you earn mileage rewards. These are being used because people can't afford this month's groceries, as they are paying off last month's groceries
link to original post



What nonsense. Can't you keep up?

Members just got done explaining that BNPL is a win-win for the purchaser -with no financial downside. They've been explaining that there's virtually no reason to turn down a BNPL offer and legitamate reasons to accept it.

And yet, you conjure up a world where everyone is avoiding starvation because they are accepting BNPL? A political masturbatory fantasy where people can't afford this month's groceries. Must every post of yours be politically or racially divisive?

What twaddle. Can't you keep up?
So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.
billryan
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December 9th, 2025 at 6:49:58 AM permalink
Quote: DRich

Quote: billryan

Win, Win, Win?

People buying groceries on a buy-now-pay-later basis are hardly a win for anyone, except the banks.

My father's generation grew up laughing at Wimpie, a character who was always asking for a hamburger today, that he would pay for next Tuesday. Now we have a generation of Wimpies buying now and paying later.
The average BNPL is under $250. What does it say when people are buying $250 items they can't afford?
When your paycheck can cover your current bills, and you have some left at the end of the month, you are on the road to success.
When this week's paycheck covers last month's groceries, you are on the slow road to Perdition.
link to original post



I disagree. Buy Now Pay Later is actually a great thing for people that have the money but want to defer the payment assuming no interest. My savings account pays about 4% interest, so why not continue collecting interest while you have a short term no interest loan?
link to original post



41% of BNPL users last year paid interest on their purchases, meaning they didn't pay them off in the intended period.
The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
gordonm888
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December 9th, 2025 at 7:00:36 AM permalink
Quote: billryan

Quote: DRich

Quote: billryan

Win, Win, Win?

People buying groceries on a buy-now-pay-later basis are hardly a win for anyone, except the banks.

My father's generation grew up laughing at Wimpie, a character who was always asking for a hamburger today, that he would pay for next Tuesday. Now we have a generation of Wimpies buying now and paying later.
The average BNPL is under $250. What does it say when people are buying $250 items they can't afford?
When your paycheck can cover your current bills, and you have some left at the end of the month, you are on the road to success.
When this week's paycheck covers last month's groceries, you are on the slow road to Perdition.
link to original post



I disagree. Buy Now Pay Later is actually a great thing for people that have the money but want to defer the payment assuming no interest. My savings account pays about 4% interest, so why not continue collecting interest while you have a short term no interest loan?
link to original post



41% of BNPL users last year paid interest on their purchases, meaning they didn't pay them off in the intended period.
link to original post



Which is true of credit card transactions, payroll loans, balloon loans, etc. Lots of humanity is forgetful, procrastinates and/or is bad at managing money. Financial institutions are keenly aware of this and enlarge their profits by exploiting this human weakness with the use of late fees and additional (higher) interest. It should serve as a lesson, as an incentive to all of us to develop personal discipline and to improve our habits and our character.
So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.
billryan
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December 9th, 2025 at 7:17:04 AM permalink
When you pay for an item with a credit card, the bank pays the merchant and collects from the consumer. If you buy a $10,000 dining room set with a Visa and don't pay it off, the bank eats the loss. That is because the bank vetted you and approved you in advance.
When you buy an item using BNPL, it is a very different creature. The merchant pays the company a fee(2% is typical) and the company lays out the money. However, the merchant isn't off the hook if the consumer fails to pay off their debt. A store with no defaults might end up paying 1% on these transactions, while a shop with many defaults pays 5%, all of which is passed on to the shop's customers through higher prices.
BNPL user demographics show a high share of minority users, and women use it much more than men. Non-college-educated users use it more than their educated counterparts.
Buy now, pay forever.
The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
AutomaticMonkey
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December 9th, 2025 at 7:37:03 AM permalink
Quote: billryan

When you pay for an item with a credit card, the bank pays the merchant and collects from the consumer. If you buy a $10,000 dining room set with a Visa and don't pay it off, the bank eats the loss. That is because the bank vetted you and approved you in advance.
When you buy an item using BNPL, it is a very different creature. The merchant pays the company a fee(2% is typical) and the company lays out the money. However, the merchant isn't off the hook if the consumer fails to pay off their debt. A store with no defaults might end up paying 1% on these transactions, while a shop with many defaults pays 5%, all of which is passed on to the shop's customers through higher prices.
BNPL user demographics show a high share of minority users, and women use it much more than men. Non-college-educated users use it more than their educated counterparts.
Buy now, pay forever.
link to original post



These numbers add up to an incomplete story. If the vig on all this is average 2%, then the default rate in dollars has to be significantly less than 2%, or this middleman is losing money which is something that can't exist consistently. The normal default rate for deadbeat-level credit is way more than that.

So you've deduced that these are people who have a default rate like 700 FICOs, or maybe even a little better, but who also can't afford groceries? No way, nobody believes that. There has to be something else going on, why and how people are using this. Maybe it has something to do with the timing of food stamps or something like that, welfare related?
gordonm888
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December 9th, 2025 at 7:49:59 AM permalink
Quote: billryan

When you pay for an item with a credit card, the bank pays the merchant and collects from the consumer. If you buy a $10,000 dining room set with a Visa and don't pay it off, the bank eats the loss. That is because the bank vetted you and approved you in advance.
When you buy an item using BNPL, it is a very different creature. The merchant pays the company a fee(2% is typical) and the company lays out the money. However, the merchant isn't off the hook if the consumer fails to pay off their debt. A store with no defaults might end up paying 1% on these transactions, while a shop with many defaults pays 5%, all of which is passed on to the shop's customers through higher prices.

link to original post



Quote: billryan

BNPL user demographics show a high share of minority users, and women use it much more than men.

So what? Who cares if these categories of people are more agile and try to take advantage of what can be a very smart option? And, I'm a man and have grandchildren that are boys and I'm not interested in creating a society that disadvantages men.
Quote: billryan

Non-college-educated users use it more than their educated counterparts.
Buy now, pay forever.

Some of the really smart young people are now choosing to forego college - because it offers little real education and training for job skills (other than STEM disciplines) and saddles you with enormous debt for the rest of your life. So, your underlying assumptions about college- educated and non-college-educated are becoming increasingly outdated.

We all "pay forever" for bad choices that we make. Stop whining about it and instead encourage the users to strive to improve themselves.

Remember that the poor will always be with us -because no matter how affluent we become we always define the lowest 20 to 30% income bracket as "poor."

Why not look at the effects of BNPL on different age brackets? On different religious groups? On different occupational groups? Why do certain people always turn the conversation to class warfare and racial divisions?
So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.
billryan
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December 9th, 2025 at 8:05:33 AM permalink
I took a BNPL loan for my HVAC. It was a great deal- five years interest-free and was only discussed after we'd settled on a price.
It came with one big catch- if not paid off in full by the deadline, the entire amount was subject to 28% interest. While I set up auto pays so I'd have it paid in full by Month 56, I don't like debt, and paid it off earlier this year. I don't need the $200 a year I might have made on interest, and I hate debt.

I haven't deduced anything. The profile of BNPL users is readily available online, as lenders use this information to target their offers.
Their average customer is a minority woman, often a single mother, who is not college-educated.
My question is: did these new financial companies spring up to help these consumers or to exploit them?
The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
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