Miscellaneous Discussion Thread II

Quote: EvenBob

Quote: lilredrooster

.
Elon Musk and his buddies say that robots will be taking over by about 2030 and they will do all the work and that nobody or very few will have to work and the robots will provide everybody with a high income
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You can take everything Elon Musk says with about 10 grains of salt. He's the king of hyperbole. He told us his Robo taxis we're on the verge of being released about 10 years ago and then in 2019 he said there would be 1 million Tesla robo taxis on the road in 2020. Here it is 2025 and we're just starting to see them.. 2030 is 4 years from now, four and a half years. Maybe by 2035 or probably 2040 we'll have robots that can get out of their own way.. I just saw the latest version of his robot and it's a joke. They will do some of the work, but all of the work? He's just trying to sell his robots, that stuff is still far into the future.
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Quote: MDawg

Quote: Zcore13

This is what this site should be all about. It would go back to attracting high quality posts and posters.
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Quote: MDawg

I thought it was about Vegas.
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Quote: Wizard

By the way, I consider further posts complaining about this site in general to be hijacking.
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Do you mean that posts criticizing the site are now verboten? or simply must be confined to threads on that topic.

Or must be specific versus general.
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Quote: AZDuffman

I've been hearing robots are going to take over since I was a kid, when robots were just getting going, More and more things do get automated, but "all the work" is a joke. To say it happens by 2030 is when I as the person who says it if they are on dope.
link to original post

Quote: EvenBob

Quote: AZDuffman

I've been hearing robots are going to take over since I was a kid, when robots were just getting going, More and more things do get automated, but "all the work" is a joke. To say it happens by 2030 is when I as the person who says it if they are on dope.
link to original post

Why Elon Musk constantly makes announcements about things that he knows can't possibly happen in the time frame that he claims is a mystery. He knows better than anybody that by 2030 they won't be any more ready than they are now. I don't remember a single prediction or claim that he made that was anywhere near what actually happened. He's a smart guy and very accomplished, I wish he was a little more reliable. Like going to the planet Mars. We're never going there, not in our lifetimes or even his grandchildren's anyway. Let alone colonize it. Yet he keeps talking about it like it's on the horizon.
link to original post

Quote: rxwine

Quote: EvenBob

Quote: AZDuffman

I've been hearing robots are going to take over since I was a kid, when robots were just getting going, More and more things do get automated, but "all the work" is a joke. To say it happens by 2030 is when I as the person who says it if they are on dope.
link to original post

Why Elon Musk constantly makes announcements about things that he knows can't possibly happen in the time frame that he claims is a mystery. He knows better than anybody that by 2030 they won't be any more ready than they are now. I don't remember a single prediction or claim that he made that was anywhere near what actually happened. He's a smart guy and very accomplished, I wish he was a little more reliable. Like going to the planet Mars. We're never going there, not in our lifetimes or even his grandchildren's anyway. Let alone colonize it. Yet he keeps talking about it like it's on the horizon.
link to original post

I will say it would be wise to first show that not only can you get a ship to Mars, but that you can bring it back before actually sending anyone.

Though, I wouldn't object to any volunteer who wants to go knowing they probably won't get back. But other people might, I don't know.
link to original post

Quote: AutomaticMonkey

Quote: rxwine

Quote: EvenBob

Quote: AZDuffman

I've been hearing robots are going to take over since I was a kid, when robots were just getting going, More and more things do get automated, but "all the work" is a joke. To say it happens by 2030 is when I as the person who says it if they are on dope.
link to original post

Why Elon Musk constantly makes announcements about things that he knows can't possibly happen in the time frame that he claims is a mystery. He knows better than anybody that by 2030 they won't be any more ready than they are now. I don't remember a single prediction or claim that he made that was anywhere near what actually happened. He's a smart guy and very accomplished, I wish he was a little more reliable. Like going to the planet Mars. We're never going there, not in our lifetimes or even his grandchildren's anyway. Let alone colonize it. Yet he keeps talking about it like it's on the horizon.
link to original post

I will say it would be wise to first show that not only can you get a ship to Mars, but that you can bring it back before actually sending anyone.

Though, I wouldn't object to any volunteer who wants to go knowing they probably won't get back. But other people might, I don't know.
link to original post

It'll work, if they do it my way.

They shouldn't try to land humans on Mars. Mars is difficult to land on using the techniques used for earth gravity and earth atmosphere. And different still than the moon because Mars does have atmosphere and high winds.

Instead use retrievable robotic landers, and the astronauts remain in an orbiter around Mars. That way they can control the robots with a joystick and not worry so much about the speed-of-light lag between the earth and Mars. The bots come out, the astronauts use them to pick up anything they think is interesting, they bring it back to the return rockets and they blast off and reunite with the orbiter, and back to earth they go.

The same method can be used for exploration and sample recovery of anything, and with minimal danger to life. Next time I talk to Elon I'll have to explain this. Being sent into space on a mission likely to result in death is an unpleasant concept I take personally.
link to original post

Quote: EvenBob

Quote: AutomaticMonkey

Quote: rxwine

Quote: EvenBob

Quote: AZDuffman

I've been hearing robots are going to take over since I was a kid, when robots were just getting going, More and more things do get automated, but "all the work" is a joke. To say it happens by 2030 is when I as the person who says it if they are on dope.
link to original post

Why Elon Musk constantly makes announcements about things that he knows can't possibly happen in the time frame that he claims is a mystery. He knows better than anybody that by 2030 they won't be any more ready than they are now. I don't remember a single prediction or claim that he made that was anywhere near what actually happened. He's a smart guy and very accomplished, I wish he was a little more reliable. Like going to the planet Mars. We're never going there, not in our lifetimes or even his grandchildren's anyway. Let alone colonize it. Yet he keeps talking about it like it's on the horizon.
link to original post

I will say it would be wise to first show that not only can you get a ship to Mars, but that you can bring it back before actually sending anyone.

Though, I wouldn't object to any volunteer who wants to go knowing they probably won't get back. But other people might, I don't know.
link to original post

It'll work, if they do it my way.

They shouldn't try to land humans on Mars. Mars is difficult to land on using the techniques used for earth gravity and earth atmosphere. And different still than the moon because Mars does have atmosphere and high winds.

Instead use retrievable robotic landers, and the astronauts remain in an orbiter around Mars. That way they can control the robots with a joystick and not worry so much about the speed-of-light lag between the earth and Mars. The bots come out, the astronauts use them to pick up anything they think is interesting, they bring it back to the return rockets and they blast off and reunite with the orbiter, and back to earth they go.

The same method can be used for exploration and sample recovery of anything, and with minimal danger to life. Next time I talk to Elon I'll have to explain this. Being sent into space on a mission likely to result in death is an unpleasant concept I take personally.
link to original post

Musk says the biggest deterrent in going to Mars is they have to use liquid fuel. And we'll have to use it for quite some time. We are a long way from having what Star Trek's Enterprise had. Oil changed the world and gave us what we have today. Whatever they find that will take oils place will do that to the future, change it in ways we can't imagine.
link to original post

Quote: AZDuffman

Quote: EvenBob

Quote: AutomaticMonkey

Quote: rxwine

Quote: EvenBob

Quote: AZDuffman

I've been hearing robots are going to take over since I was a kid, when robots were just getting going, More and more things do get automated, but "all the work" is a joke. To say it happens by 2030 is when I as the person who says it if they are on dope.
link to original post

Why Elon Musk constantly makes announcements about things that he knows can't possibly happen in the time frame that he claims is a mystery. He knows better than anybody that by 2030 they won't be any more ready than they are now. I don't remember a single prediction or claim that he made that was anywhere near what actually happened. He's a smart guy and very accomplished, I wish he was a little more reliable. Like going to the planet Mars. We're never going there, not in our lifetimes or even his grandchildren's anyway. Let alone colonize it. Yet he keeps talking about it like it's on the horizon.
link to original post

I will say it would be wise to first show that not only can you get a ship to Mars, but that you can bring it back before actually sending anyone.

Though, I wouldn't object to any volunteer who wants to go knowing they probably won't get back. But other people might, I don't know.
link to original post

It'll work, if they do it my way.

They shouldn't try to land humans on Mars. Mars is difficult to land on using the techniques used for earth gravity and earth atmosphere. And different still than the moon because Mars does have atmosphere and high winds.

Instead use retrievable robotic landers, and the astronauts remain in an orbiter around Mars. That way they can control the robots with a joystick and not worry so much about the speed-of-light lag between the earth and Mars. The bots come out, the astronauts use them to pick up anything they think is interesting, they bring it back to the return rockets and they blast off and reunite with the orbiter, and back to earth they go.

The same method can be used for exploration and sample recovery of anything, and with minimal danger to life. Next time I talk to Elon I'll have to explain this. Being sent into space on a mission likely to result in death is an unpleasant concept I take personally.
link to original post

Musk says the biggest deterrent in going to Mars is they have to use liquid fuel. And we'll have to use it for quite some time. We are a long way from having what Star Trek's Enterprise had. Oil changed the world and gave us what we have today. Whatever they find that will take oils place will do that to the future, change it in ways we can't imagine.
link to original post

Musk is missing the obvious. The biggest thing is all the food, water, and other supplies that will have to be stages along the way, We will have to launch capsules filled with such, probably 50 or more considering a two-way trip. The travel capsule will have to stop there like you stop your car for gas and to eat along the turnpike. Whatever we send will need to be much larger than what we sent to the moon, probably the size of the space shuttle. The crew will need space to exercise, sleep, a space water-closet and way to shower, etc.

I just read on a board that in today's $$ each moon mission would be $40 BILLION. Mars would be at least $500 billion if you consider that number.

I doubt any living person sees us go to and return from Mars, if it even ever happens.
link to original post

Quote: AutomaticMonkey

Quote: rxwine

Quote: EvenBob

Quote: AZDuffman

I've been hearing robots are going to take over since I was a kid, when robots were just getting going, More and more things do get automated, but "all the work" is a joke. To say it happens by 2030 is when I as the person who says it if they are on dope.
link to original post

Why Elon Musk constantly makes announcements about things that he knows can't possibly happen in the time frame that he claims is a mystery. He knows better than anybody that by 2030 they won't be any more ready than they are now. I don't remember a single prediction or claim that he made that was anywhere near what actually happened. He's a smart guy and very accomplished, I wish he was a little more reliable. Like going to the planet Mars. We're never going there, not in our lifetimes or even his grandchildren's anyway. Let alone colonize it. Yet he keeps talking about it like it's on the horizon.
link to original post

I will say it would be wise to first show that not only can you get a ship to Mars, but that you can bring it back before actually sending anyone.

Though, I wouldn't object to any volunteer who wants to go knowing they probably won't get back. But other people might, I don't know.
link to original post

It'll work, if they do it my way.

They shouldn't try to land humans on Mars. Mars is difficult to land on using the techniques used for earth gravity and earth atmosphere. And different still than the moon because Mars does have atmosphere and high winds.

Instead use retrievable robotic landers, and the astronauts remain in an orbiter around Mars. That way they can control the robots with a joystick and not worry so much about the speed-of-light lag between the earth and Mars. The bots come out, the astronauts use them to pick up anything they think is interesting, they bring it back to the return rockets and they blast off and reunite with the orbiter, and back to earth they go.

The same method can be used for exploration and sample recovery of anything, and with minimal danger to life. Next time I talk to Elon I'll have to explain this. Being sent into space on a mission likely to result in death is an unpleasant concept I take personally.
link to original post

Quote: Dieter

Quote: AZDuffman

Quote: EvenBob

Quote: AutomaticMonkey

Quote: rxwine

Quote: EvenBob

Quote: AZDuffman

I've been hearing robots are going to take over since I was a kid, when robots were just getting going, More and more things do get automated, but "all the work" is a joke. To say it happens by 2030 is when I as the person who says it if they are on dope.
link to original post

Why Elon Musk constantly makes announcements about things that he knows can't possibly happen in the time frame that he claims is a mystery. He knows better than anybody that by 2030 they won't be any more ready than they are now. I don't remember a single prediction or claim that he made that was anywhere near what actually happened. He's a smart guy and very accomplished, I wish he was a little more reliable. Like going to the planet Mars. We're never going there, not in our lifetimes or even his grandchildren's anyway. Let alone colonize it. Yet he keeps talking about it like it's on the horizon.
link to original post

I will say it would be wise to first show that not only can you get a ship to Mars, but that you can bring it back before actually sending anyone.

Though, I wouldn't object to any volunteer who wants to go knowing they probably won't get back. But other people might, I don't know.
link to original post

It'll work, if they do it my way.

They shouldn't try to land humans on Mars. Mars is difficult to land on using the techniques used for earth gravity and earth atmosphere. And different still than the moon because Mars does have atmosphere and high winds.

Instead use retrievable robotic landers, and the astronauts remain in an orbiter around Mars. That way they can control the robots with a joystick and not worry so much about the speed-of-light lag between the earth and Mars. The bots come out, the astronauts use them to pick up anything they think is interesting, they bring it back to the return rockets and they blast off and reunite with the orbiter, and back to earth they go.

The same method can be used for exploration and sample recovery of anything, and with minimal danger to life. Next time I talk to Elon I'll have to explain this. Being sent into space on a mission likely to result in death is an unpleasant concept I take personally.
link to original post

Musk says the biggest deterrent in going to Mars is they have to use liquid fuel. And we'll have to use it for quite some time. We are a long way from having what Star Trek's Enterprise had. Oil changed the world and gave us what we have today. Whatever they find that will take oils place will do that to the future, change it in ways we can't imagine.
link to original post

Musk is missing the obvious. The biggest thing is all the food, water, and other supplies that will have to be stages along the way, We will have to launch capsules filled with such, probably 50 or more considering a two-way trip. The travel capsule will have to stop there like you stop your car for gas and to eat along the turnpike. Whatever we send will need to be much larger than what we sent to the moon, probably the size of the space shuttle. The crew will need space to exercise, sleep, a space water-closet and way to shower, etc.

I just read on a board that in today's $$ each moon mission would be $40 BILLION. Mars would be at least $500 billion if you consider that number.

I doubt any living person sees us go to and return from Mars, if it even ever happens.
link to original post

Fuel. If you plan on stopping and resuming that much, you need a lot more fuel.

The vessel is going to start looking less like a space ship, and more like what we think of as a space station. Warehouses of food to sustain the crew, air, and the fuel tanks to push it all will see to that. A gymnasium for exercise really shouldn't be any trouble to squeeze in.
link to original post

Quote: AZDuffman

Quote: Dieter

Quote: AZDuffman

Quote: EvenBob

Quote: AutomaticMonkey

Quote: rxwine

Quote: EvenBob

Quote: AZDuffman

I've been hearing robots are going to take over since I was a kid, when robots were just getting going, More and more things do get automated, but "all the work" is a joke. To say it happens by 2030 is when I as the person who says it if they are on dope.
link to original post

Why Elon Musk constantly makes announcements about things that he knows can't possibly happen in the time frame that he claims is a mystery. He knows better than anybody that by 2030 they won't be any more ready than they are now. I don't remember a single prediction or claim that he made that was anywhere near what actually happened. He's a smart guy and very accomplished, I wish he was a little more reliable. Like going to the planet Mars. We're never going there, not in our lifetimes or even his grandchildren's anyway. Let alone colonize it. Yet he keeps talking about it like it's on the horizon.
link to original post

I will say it would be wise to first show that not only can you get a ship to Mars, but that you can bring it back before actually sending anyone.

Though, I wouldn't object to any volunteer who wants to go knowing they probably won't get back. But other people might, I don't know.
link to original post

It'll work, if they do it my way.

They shouldn't try to land humans on Mars. Mars is difficult to land on using the techniques used for earth gravity and earth atmosphere. And different still than the moon because Mars does have atmosphere and high winds.

Instead use retrievable robotic landers, and the astronauts remain in an orbiter around Mars. That way they can control the robots with a joystick and not worry so much about the speed-of-light lag between the earth and Mars. The bots come out, the astronauts use them to pick up anything they think is interesting, they bring it back to the return rockets and they blast off and reunite with the orbiter, and back to earth they go.

The same method can be used for exploration and sample recovery of anything, and with minimal danger to life. Next time I talk to Elon I'll have to explain this. Being sent into space on a mission likely to result in death is an unpleasant concept I take personally.
link to original post

Musk says the biggest deterrent in going to Mars is they have to use liquid fuel. And we'll have to use it for quite some time. We are a long way from having what Star Trek's Enterprise had. Oil changed the world and gave us what we have today. Whatever they find that will take oils place will do that to the future, change it in ways we can't imagine.
link to original post

Musk is missing the obvious. The biggest thing is all the food, water, and other supplies that will have to be stages along the way, We will have to launch capsules filled with such, probably 50 or more considering a two-way trip. The travel capsule will have to stop there like you stop your car for gas and to eat along the turnpike. Whatever we send will need to be much larger than what we sent to the moon, probably the size of the space shuttle. The crew will need space to exercise, sleep, a space water-closet and way to shower, etc.

I just read on a board that in today's $$ each moon mission would be $40 BILLION. Mars would be at least $500 billion if you consider that number.

I doubt any living person sees us go to and return from Mars, if it even ever happens.
link to original post

Fuel. If you plan on stopping and resuming that much, you need a lot more fuel.

The vessel is going to start looking less like a space ship, and more like what we think of as a space station. Warehouses of food to sustain the crew, air, and the fuel tanks to push it all will see to that. A gymnasium for exercise really shouldn't be any trouble to squeeze in.
link to original post

I see a lot of money being wasted on the effort. While I find the space program a high net benefit I ASalso ask why we need to do these long term missions anymore. What more is to be gained?

The space station is near end of life, gonna end up a massive light show in a few years. Even in the old Project Space Station C64 game it all got boring eventually. We might be near time to admit that there is no reason to keep hanging out up there.
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Quote: billryan

Forget National Security. Eventually, something will happen to make life on Earth impossible. We have a finite amount of time to spread our seed so that Humanity can continue.
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Quote: AZDuffman

Mankind will be gone in 300-1000 years based on falling TFR.
link to original post

Quote:

Victoria's Secret was chosen to reference Queen Victoria and the propriety of the Victorian era, combined with the idea of a "secret" which alluded to the hidden nature of lingerie during that time. Founder Roy Raymond aimed to create a sophisticated store, reminiscent of a Victorian-era boudoir, where men could comfortably shop for intimate apparel, which was often a taboo subject then.

Quote: rxwine

Victoria's Secret.

Doesn't look like Victoria is keeping all that much secret.

However, looking up the origin of the name.

Quote:

Victoria's Secret was chosen to reference Queen Victoria and the propriety of the Victorian era, combined with the idea of a "secret" which alluded to the hidden nature of lingerie during that time. Founder Roy Raymond aimed to create a sophisticated store, reminiscent of a Victorian-era boudoir, where men could comfortably shop for intimate apparel, which was often a taboo subject then.

link to original post

Quote: EvenBob

Quote: AZDuffman

Mankind will be gone in 300-1000 years based on falling TFR.
link to original post

Just like in 1957 they were all saying the Earth was going to starve to death from overpopulation by 1980. Then they discovered how to grow 600 bushels of corn per acre instead of 100 bushels. They said in the 1960s the oceans were going to be fished out by 1990. Then they figured out to how to avoid that calamity. That's what we do now, we see things coming and we figure out in advance how to make them not happen. They didn't have that luxury in the past, they just waited till everything steam rolled over them. You cannot use the past as an indication of what's going to happen in the future anymore. From 1900 to 1950 worldwide medical knowledge doubled. Today thanks to the internet and computers medical knowledge doubles every 2.5 months. Human knowledge in general doubles every 12 months. Nothing like this has ever happened in human history and it makes history obsolete as far as learning from it goes.
link to original post

Quote: avianrandy

Their is currently a wawa grocery store almost finished in my area and another going to be built closer to me. Anyone have any experience with this grocery chain? No sure if spelling is correct I spelled it phonetically
link to original post

Quote: AZDuffman

Quote: EvenBob

Quote: AZDuffman

Mankind will be gone in 300-1000 years based on falling TFR.
link to original post

Just like in 1957 they were all saying the Earth was going to starve to death from overpopulation by 1980. Then they discovered how to grow 600 bushels of corn per acre instead of 100 bushels. They said in the 1960s the oceans were going to be fished out by 1990. Then they figured out to how to avoid that calamity. That's what we do now, we see things coming and we figure out in advance how to make them not happen. They didn't have that luxury in the past, they just waited till everything steam rolled over them. You cannot use the past as an indication of what's going to happen in the future anymore. From 1900 to 1950 worldwide medical knowledge doubled. Today thanks to the internet and computers medical knowledge doubles every 2.5 months. Human knowledge in general doubles every 12 months. Nothing like this has ever happened in human history and it makes history obsolete as far as learning from it goes.
link to original post

It’s about the crashing total fertility rate. 2030s will be the last decade of good economic growth. 2040s-2060s will be like Japan since 1990. Just stagnation. 2070s will start 100 years of economic depression with a boomlet here and there for short bursts. By 2200 the earth will be down to a billion people.
link to original post

Quote: avianrandy

Their is currently a wawa grocery store almost finished in my area and another going to be built closer to me. Anyone have any experience with this grocery chain? No sure if spelling is correct I spelled it phonetically
link to original post

Quote: EvenBob

Quote: avianrandy

Their is currently a wawa grocery store almost finished in my area and another going to be built closer to me. Anyone have any experience with this grocery chain? No sure if spelling is correct I spelled it phonetically
link to original post

They have stores that sound like babies crying? Seriously? Waaaaaaa.... lol
link to original post

Quote: rxwine

Quote: EvenBob

Quote: avianrandy

Their is currently a wawa grocery store almost finished in my area and another going to be built closer to me. Anyone have any experience with this grocery chain? No sure if spelling is correct I spelled it phonetically
link to original post

They have stores that sound like babies crying? Seriously? Waaaaaaa.... lol
link to original post

It’s named after the goose.

link to original post

Quote: EvenBob

Quote: AZDuffman

Quote: EvenBob

Quote: AZDuffman

Mankind will be gone in 300-1000 years based on falling TFR.
link to original post

Just like in 1957 they were all saying the Earth was going to starve to death from overpopulation by 1980. Then they discovered how to grow 600 bushels of corn per acre instead of 100 bushels. They said in the 1960s the oceans were going to be fished out by 1990. Then they figured out to how to avoid that calamity. That's what we do now, we see things coming and we figure out in advance how to make them not happen. They didn't have that luxury in the past, they just waited till everything steam rolled over them. You cannot use the past as an indication of what's going to happen in the future anymore. From 1900 to 1950 worldwide medical knowledge doubled. Today thanks to the internet and computers medical knowledge doubles every 2.5 months. Human knowledge in general doubles every 12 months. Nothing like this has ever happened in human history and it makes history obsolete as far as learning from it goes.
link to original post

It’s about the crashing total fertility rate. 2030s will be the last decade of good economic growth. 2040s-2060s will be like Japan since 1990. Just stagnation. 2070s will start 100 years of economic depression with a boomlet here and there for short bursts. By 2200 the earth will be down to a billion people.
link to original post

If we do nothing. Humans are very proactive now, we work on fixing things. None of the doom and gloom things they predicted have come true. Been hearing dire predictiohns for 70 years, and here we still are.
link to original post

Quote:

Black Death (mid-1300s):led to a short-term decline in birthrates.
The Great Depression (1930s): The U.S. birthrate fell to a record low during this period of severe economic crisis. Couples delayed marriage and starting families due to financial hardship and uncertainty. The total fertility rate (TFR) dropped to 2.1 children per woman in 1936.
The "Baby Bust" (1960s–1970s): After the post-World War II baby boom, birthrates fell sharply across industrialized nations. This was driven by a combination of factors, including increased access to contraception, a rise in women's educational and employment opportunities, and changing social norms around marriage and family size.
The Great Recession (2007–2009): In the U.S., birthrates experienced a notable decline following the 2007 financial crisis. Research shows a clear link between the economic downturn and a drop in fertility, as job insecurity and financial pressures caused many people to delay or forgo having children.
The COVID-19 Pandemic (2020): Many countries experienced a sharp decline in birthrates during the pandemic, often dubbed the "COVID-19 baby bust." Uncertainty related to the economy and public health caused many prospective parents to postpone having children.

Quote: AZDuffman

Quote: EvenBob

Quote: AZDuffman

Quote: EvenBob

Quote: AZDuffman

Mankind will be gone in 300-1000 years based on falling TFR.
link to original post

Just like in 1957 they were all saying the Earth was going to starve to death from overpopulation by 1980. Then they discovered how to grow 600 bushels of corn per acre instead of 100 bushels. They said in the 1960s the oceans were going to be fished out by 1990. Then they figured out to how to avoid that calamity. That's what we do now, we see things coming and we figure out in advance how to make them not happen. They didn't have that luxury in the past, they just waited till everything steam rolled over them. You cannot use the past as an indication of what's going to happen in the future anymore. From 1900 to 1950 worldwide medical knowledge doubled. Today thanks to the internet and computers medical knowledge doubles every 2.5 months. Human knowledge in general doubles every 12 months. Nothing like this has ever happened in human history and it makes history obsolete as far as learning from it goes.
link to original post

It’s about the crashing total fertility rate. 2030s will be the last decade of good economic growth. 2040s-2060s will be like Japan since 1990. Just stagnation. 2070s will start 100 years of economic depression with a boomlet here and there for short bursts. By 2200 the earth will be down to a billion people.
link to original post

If we do nothing. Humans are very proactive now, we work on fixing things. None of the doom and gloom things they predicted have come true. Been hearing dire predictiohns for 70 years, and here we still are.
link to original post

Not a prediction. It’s happening. Japan losing population. S Korea down to less than one child per woman and still falling. Most of the world will be at or near population loss in the 2040s. Short of forced breeding you can’t turn that in a dime.

We are Mousetopia. It was a good run.
link to original post

Quote: EvenBob

Quote: AZDuffman

Quote: EvenBob

Quote: AZDuffman

Quote: EvenBob

Quote: AZDuffman

Mankind will be gone in 300-1000 years based on falling TFR.
link to original post

Just like in 1957 they were all saying the Earth was going to starve to death from overpopulation by 1980. Then they discovered how to grow 600 bushels of corn per acre instead of 100 bushels. They said in the 1960s the oceans were going to be fished out by 1990. Then they figured out to how to avoid that calamity. That's what we do now, we see things coming and we figure out in advance how to make them not happen. They didn't have that luxury in the past, they just waited till everything steam rolled over them. You cannot use the past as an indication of what's going to happen in the future anymore. From 1900 to 1950 worldwide medical knowledge doubled. Today thanks to the internet and computers medical knowledge doubles every 2.5 months. Human knowledge in general doubles every 12 months. Nothing like this has ever happened in human history and it makes history obsolete as far as learning from it goes.
link to original post

It’s about the crashing total fertility rate. 2030s will be the last decade of good economic growth. 2040s-2060s will be like Japan since 1990. Just stagnation. 2070s will start 100 years of economic depression with a boomlet here and there for short bursts. By 2200 the earth will be down to a billion people.
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If we do nothing. Humans are very proactive now, we work on fixing things. None of the doom and gloom things they predicted have come true. Been hearing dire predictiohns for 70 years, and here we still are.
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Not a prediction. It’s happening. Japan losing population. S Korea down to less than one child per woman and still falling. Most of the world will be at or near population loss in the 2040s. Short of forced breeding you can’t turn that in a dime.

We are Mousetopia. It was a good run.
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Remember these?

In the 1950s everyone was convinced we were going to blow ourselves up in a nuclear worldwide war.

Paul Ehrlich predicted that global famines caused by overpopulation would kill hundreds of millions of people in the 1970s and 1980s.

Around the time of the first Earth Day in 1970, predictions stated that a vast majority of all animal species would become extinct by the late 20th century.

In a 1970 Scientific American scientist estimated that humanity would run out of key metals, such as copper, lead, and gold, by the early 2000s.

In the 1970s, news reports scientists warned of an imminent global cooling trend that could trigger a new ice age.

In January 1970, Life reported, “Scientists have solid experimental and theoretical evidence to support…the following predictions: In a decade, urban dwellers will have to wear gas masks to survive air pollution…by 1985 air pollution will have reduced the amount of sunlight reaching earth by one half….”

“By the year 2000 if present trends continue, we will be using up crude oil at such a rate…that there won’t be any more crude oil.

This is just a small list of the dire predictions that never came true, they literally go on and on. And it's even worse these days, there are dire predictions everywhere you look because people make money with them. I pay 98 cents a can for sardines and I eat a can everyday. I remember when the predictions said by 1985 the oceans were going to be free of life, no more fish.
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Quote: AZDuffman

Difference is this is not a prediction of what might happen. It is taking what IS happening out and f do king the math.
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Quote: AZDuffman

...Short of forced breeding...

Quote: AutomaticMonkey

That is what you get when you extrapolate and assume effects are linear and not cyclical or reversing. We haven't seen enough inflection points to come to the conclusions you are coming to.

Quote: AutomaticMonkey

The days are getting shorter now. At the rate it is going, in a year or two the sun will totally disappear.

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Quote: billryan

I crossed paths with a couple of guys from Job Corps today. The current administration is trying to shut it down, but the courts are keeping it open for now.
Job Corps is a program open to all American citizens, but is geared towards 16-24 year olds. It teaches a variety of trades, is self-paced, and roughly 60% of the students who last the first week go on to work in their chosen jobs. Most jobs pay $1,000 a week or more, and roughly half of the students live in poverty before admission. The program attracts few upper-class students.
Students live on campus in dorm-like settings and are subject to several restrictions. They receive a basic living allowance and medical care.
It is an expensive program to maintain, and the benefits vary depending on how they are counted. As a condition of acceptance into the Corp, you agree to get your GED or HS diploma. Many receive their technical training, go to work, and fail to complete the academic portion.
Proponents of the program point to the 60% of trainees who are working in the field, earning $60,000 or more, and the millions of Americans who were raised out of poverty over the program's sixty years of operation. Children raised in poverty tend to live in poverty and raise their kids in poverty. Escaping poverty means there is a better chance that your kids and grandkids won't grow up in the same situation. They also claim that even a few weeks of training in some fields gives the dropouts an advantage in the job field.
Opponents claim only 32% of the people accepted graduate, and the fact that only 38% of trainees finish both the training and the education.
The Tucson campus is located in an isolated section of town, intersected by long-defunct private rail lines, and situated literally under an elevated highway. I only found it because I was on a quest to find the best dive bar in Tucson and had a tip on a place that was right
across the street.
Arizona has a significant need for HVAC technicians, as the heat can be deadly here. The Tucson Job Corp campus has graduated over 20,00, has several hundred in the pipeline but is not currently accepting new applicants.
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Quote: ChumpChange

Just randomly looking at the CPI calculator and $1,000 in January 1966 would be $9,989.65 in January 2025.
I was looking up the value of an stereo old amp my family had and it sold for $235 in 1964 and it looks like someone found it and put it on e-bay for $1,350. At least the missing piece is visibly still missing, coincidence? They'd have to replace all the vacuum tubes because that thing was so damn dead after 10 years. But to account for inflation it'd have to be near double the price at $2,463 if being sold as new.
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Quote: AutomaticMonkey

Here's what seems to me to be an objective analysis of Job Corps. This is a traditional labor union newsletter. They don't seem to be fans.
https://nwlaborpress.org/2025/05/trump-budget-plan-slashes-labor-department/

It appears the biggest source of problems comes from having them live there. These kids were bad news to begin with and you put them all together in a reformatory-like environment, with the kind of people you're going to have managing this the only ones watching over them, what do you think is going to happen?

If you want to be a HVAC apprentice I'm pretty sure you just show up at work or at your school then go home when your day is done. Maybe they should do that instead.
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Quote: article

But the transparency report says Job Corps overall has an average cost per enrollee of just under $50,000 and a graduation rate of just 32%, and that participants earn $16,695 annually on average after leaving the program.

Quote: AZDuffman

Nicole Kidman is on the market!
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Quote: EvenBob

Quote: AZDuffman

Nicole Kidman is on the market!
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She will be 60 next year and I guarantee she doesn't look like this when she gets up in the morning. The makeup they make today works miracles but it's very expensive. Ask a woman the first thing she would save in a catastrophe and it's always her makeup bag because it has thousands of dollars of product in it.

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Quote: EvenBob

She will be 60 next year and I guarantee she doesn't look like this when she gets up in the morning. The makeup they make today works miracles but it's very expensive. Ask a woman the first thing she would save in a catastrophe and it's always her makeup bag because it has thousands of dollars of product in it.

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