6 months of supplies?
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25 members have voted
I'm hearing some members here are trying to lay in supplies for as long as 6 months!
Does this mean those people believe shortages will still exist and even get worse? Or do they plan to just hunker down in their homes for as long as necessary to avoid the plague, never going to the store? Or is it that they just can't see that the problem is hoarding itself?
- I'm going to plan on staying home and isolated for 6 months, but...
- that doesn't mean I need to lay in a 6 month supply of food and consumables because...
- I can get home deliveries of food and paper goods from Amazon and Whole Foods.
- Any problems with supplies are (so far) mostly due to a sudden surge in demand but....
- at some point there will be supply chain issues impacting a few necessities (e.g., pasta from Italy) but...
- critical items will continue to be in plentiful supply.
Quote: TumblingBonesI think that
- I'm going to plan on staying home and isolated for 6 months, but...
- that doesn't mean I need to lay in a 6 month supply of food and consumables because...
- I can get home deliveries of food and paper goods from Amazon and Whole Foods.
- Any problems with supplies are (so far) mostly due to a sudden surge in demand but....
- at some point there will be supply chain issues impacting a few necessities (e.g., pasta from Italy) but...
- critical items will continue to be in plentiful supply.
Amazon has shut down the Pantry, for which I have a half-dozen monthly subscriptions. They are not delivering any food, kleenex, or TP, all of which are among my subscriptions. No dog food or treats, either.
They didn't close me out; they're simply showing all my selections as u available.
Can't speak for Whole Foods, but they are owe'd by Amazon now, so I would not depend on them continuing to deliver much longer.
So, I just did a 6 a.m. run on my grocery store to establish a 2 week food supply. Was able to buy small quantities of TP and was there when the bread was delivered! Very little beef or chicken was available; I loaded up on hot dogs.
I think people are worried about the supply chain breaking down in places. Trucking, gasoline, grocery store clerks. Also electricity, to a lesser extent.
I don't expect that, but then I didn't expect to be where we are right now.
That would suck big-time, especially if it happens in the summer months here in Vegas. That would certainly cause a lot of deaths.Quote: gordonm888Also electricity, to a lesser extent.
Quote: gordonm888I am hearing a rumor of a national lockdown/shutdown, potentially as early as this weekend/next week. Of course, California has announced a state-wide shutdown.
So, I just did a 6 a.m. run on my grocery store to establish a 2 week food supply. Was able to buy small quantities of TP and was there when the bread was delivered! Very little beef or chicken was available; I loaded up on hot dogs.
I think people are worried about the supply chain breaking down in places. Trucking, gasoline, grocery store clerks. Also electricity, to a lesser extent.
I don't expect that, but then I didn't expect to be where we are right now.
There are many jobs that exempt you from the 'stay at home ' requirement.
If you work in a grocery store or pharmacy you are exempt. Police, fire, medical, POLITICIANS, media, gas stations, companies that service those things. I 'think' those that are involved in the food chain are also exempt.
Those people WANT to keep working, trust me. Of course there will be some workforce loss due to sickness and lack of childcare, but there are PLENTY of able bodied unemployed folk ready to take any job that becomes available.
What about a disruption of power plant fuel supply lines (mining, refining, transport, etc.)? I think that may be more of an issue than the actual production/distribution of electricity.Quote: TumblingBonesI wouldn't loose sleep over the loss of electricity. Keeping the power grid running does not require a lot of man-power. Only labor-intensive issue is linemen repairing distribution lines after a storm. The generation & transmission components are highly automated.
My prediction:. At home testing kits mitigate the situation along with means to treat the infected (so it's not a death sentence to so many)
Takes about six weeks and we are all back to work at that time. Perhaps start seeing reopening in two weeks but i'm doubtful(optimistic) on that. Four weeks would be when operations starting to reopen probably begin
But that assumes normal load. With the shutdown of the economy demand will drop as businesses and factories close. The utilities prioritize generation on a number of factors with the main one being fuel cost. That means if there is excess capacity they will shut down first the gas plants, then the coal. So for the next 6 months expect the percentage generated from hydrocarbons to drop. How much it drops is too complicated for me to predict. Lets assume for now its less than a 10% drop so non-renewables would still account for more than 50%. Loss of 50% of capacity would be a problem folks would notice in day-to-day life (i.e., rolling blackouts).
Transport isn't going to be an issue. The gas comes from shale oil fields via pipelines. Coal is shipped by train. Very very long trains (up to 2 miles long) so again minimal manpower is required for loading and transporting. Only issue left is mining and refining. That's the area I know the least about but my impression is that it's not man-power intensive and the working conditions tend to result in a fair amount of distance between workers. But as i said, that's just my impression.
Wow, I didn't realize that we had transitioned that much away from petroleum! The plant near where I grew up used fuel oil. I just assumed that was the norm. I just looked them up, and they had transitioned to natural gas in 2014. I guess things like that have happened to plants all over the country.Quote: TumblingBonesGood question. The grid runs mostly of 4 types of fuel: hydro, nuc, coal, and gas. The 1st two are obviously not issues in regards to fuel supply. Coal is used in the US for about 23% of the generated power and gas is another 38% according to the EIA.
As for nuclear, do you know how often do they need refueling?
Yeah, one of those trains rumbles right by my office every other day. It's like a small earthquake. Really bounces my monitors around!Quote:Coal is shipped by train. Very very long trains (up to 2 miles long) so again minimal manpower is required for loading and transporting.
Quote: TumblingBonesGood question. The grid runs mostly of 4 types of fuel: hydro, nuc, coal, and gas. The 1st two are obviously not issues in regards to fuel supply. Coal is used in the US for about 23% of the generated power and gas is another 38% according to the EIA. That means 62% of the power is from sources requiring resupply.
But that assumes normal load. With the shutdown of the economy demand will drop as businesses and factories close. The utilities prioritize generation on a number of factors with the main one being fuel cost. That means if there is excess capacity they will shut down first the gas plants, then the coal. So for the next 6 months expect the percentage generated from hydrocarbons to drop. How much it drops is too complicated for me to predict. Lets assume for now its less than a 10% drop so non-renewables would still account for more than 50%. Loss of 50% of capacity would be a problem folks would notice in day-to-day life (i.e., rolling blackouts).
Transport isn't going to be an issue. The gas comes from shale oil fields via pipelines. Coal is shipped by train. Very very long trains (up to 2 miles long) so again minimal manpower is required for loading and transporting. Only issue left is mining and refining. That's the area I know the least about but my impression is that it's not man-power intensive and the working conditions tend to result in a fair amount of distance between workers. But as i said, that's just my impression.
Good post!
Some things to consider, is the resiliency of the grid. Not just reliability.
Nukes have two years of fuel. And most coal plants have 90 days. Natural gas has about 30 seconds. And per your info above 38% is from gas, and is the most susceptible to interruption. Because there is no storage on site. Having over a third of the grid being the most vulnerable is not good imo.
Amazon has already shut down their warehouse in NY because a worker has COVID19.Quote: TumblingBonesSo far we haven't had problems with Amazon or WF other than some substitutions by WF (e.g. they were out of the cheaper brands of sugar and napkins my wife ordered so we had to substitute a more expensive brand). Not sure about the Amazon subscriptions my wife set up. I'll ask her later (she's sleeping late today). So far no problems with the non-subscription stuff including some antibacterial hand wipes she ordered about 10 days back. They were delivered after a 4 day delay.
1. Early panic buying
2. There's plenty of product, but there's no way to get it onto the shelves fast enough
3. "The shelves are emptying! Buy as much as you can!"
A misunderstanding of the "shelter in place" laws isn't helping matters ("I need to stock up now as I won't be able to leave the house for who knows how long!" - actually, that's not true; everybody can leave their house to shop for groceries).
Quote: onenickelmiracleMaybe it would be a good idea to grow a garden and have quick growing food like lettuce.
Plenty of protein in almost every yard. If you don't have a yard, use a public park.
Fifteen minutes of internet research will turn up plenty of recipes.
Quote: TumblingBones
But that assumes normal load. With the shutdown of the economy demand will drop as businesses and factories close.
I was wondering if it would go up or down. If an office closes and 5 people go home, that could be 5 additional houses using more power?
The net use will be going down I think, with businesses and factories closing. Has to be, housing is just a portion of our country's use. Weather is a good thing, temperatures are mild for this time of year.Quote: rxwineI was wondering if it would go up or down. If an office closes and 5 people go home, that could be 5 additional houses using more power?
Quote: beachbumbabs
Amazon has shut down the Pantry, for which I have a half-dozen monthly subscriptions. They are not delivering any food, kleenex, or TP, all of which are among my subscriptions. No dog food or treats, either.
I ordered pet food on A till they
ran out. Got a box of bird suet on
the deck right now. Kleenex was
sold out last week.
About natural gas: natural gas is the marginal fuel in the bid stack for power supply in just about every market. So as loads drop, the required amount of gas for generation drops. And/but, there's not much risk of a natural gas shortage. It's needed on its own for too many other things. Methane for nitrogen fertilizer production, heat for metals and plastics manufacturing (for ventilators, tests, other medical goods), heat and process fuel for food production and packaging, hot water, steam production....
Quote: Indy70
Some things to consider, is the resiliency of the grid. Not just reliability.
Nukes have two years of fuel. And most coal plants have 90 days. Natural gas has about 30 seconds. And per your info above 38% is from gas, and is the most susceptible to interruption. Because there is no storage on site. Having over a third of the grid being the most vulnerable is not good imo.
If gas supplies disappeared entirely I would expect to see some stability issues appear, possibly in the form of brownouts.
Quote: wikipediaA brownout is an intentional or unintentional drop in voltage in an electrical power supply system. Intentional brownouts are used for load reduction in an emergency.[1] The reduction lasts for minutes or hours, as opposed to short-term voltage sag (or dip). The term brownout comes from the dimming experienced by incandescent lighting when the voltage sags. A voltage reduction may be an effect of disruption of an electrical grid, or may occasionally be imposed in an effort to reduce load and prevent a power outage, known as a blackout.
These can occur when the demand for power in some region of the grid doesn't exactly match the available power. Remember: power isn't stored so what is being generated at any given instant must exactly match the immediate demand. Any variance shows up in the form of a slight drift from the expected voltage (e.g., 120V into your house). If you want to dig deeper read the Load Management entry on Wikipedia.
The issue in terms of the supply chain is that the utility will need to not only increase/decrease the output of a specific generator but also turn one or more entirely off. The flexibility to do this varies depending on the type of generator. In some cases it can take days or weeks to bring a generator back on line. This is why coal generators are used for supplying 'base' load while the much more flexible gas plants supply 'peak' load. My hunch is that if a regional utility can't get enough gas, the problem will first become noticeable to the public in the form of brownouts due to problems of quickly bringing on-line peak generation capacity.
Caveat: this is a very simplified description of one of the most complex system management problems I've ever encountered. Also, the last time I worked in this field was back in the 80s and I imagine there have been some changes since then. Given we're in uncharted territory the situation could be much better or much worse than I've described.
NY State wants 100% work from home. Thats just not possible, but all jobs that can should.
OMG face-time with the kiddies, the kids just cannot curl up in front a smartphone all day. The 'modern Ammerican faamily' needs to go back to the roots of socialization. Big time. And get ready for the Spring-Break Out-Break.
Regards
Suited89
Quote: ChumpChangeSigns at the mall said they would reopen April 1st, but that was a day before the Governor shut down the malls. Today he shut down all non-essential businesses. He'll have to sue GameStop to shut down though.
I heard GameStop is refusing to shut down because they're on the verge of bankruptcy and shutting down for even two weeks will end them completely.
edit, with exceptions when a whole system is damaged like in Puerta Rico
New Yorkers say they are finding it nearly impossible to file for unemployment benefits in the state as the coronavirus outbreak creates an unprecedented surge in people losing their jobs.
The New York state labor department said it received 159,000 calls by noon on Thursday, compared with the average of 10,000 calls a day. In some parts of the state, the department said, there was a 1,000% increase in claims. The website is seeing a 400% increase above normal in logins each day.
People trying to file claims complained the website wouldn’t load, even after hours of refreshing the page, and said it was difficult to connect to someone on the phone. One person said on Twitter they couldn’t get through after calling 50 times on Friday morning.
The surge in unemployment claims prompted the labor board to go on a hiring spree for jobs in the unemployment office and to break down the filing days by last name.
On Mondays, people can file claims if their last names starts with A to F. On Tuesday, it is open to G to N and Wednesday is O to Z. Thursdays and Fridays are open days for people to submit their claims if they miss their allocated day.
PS: it's not Mad Max until 70 million Americans who didn't pay taxes in 2018 don't get their $1000 check which won't even cover the rent.
Quote: ChumpChange.
PS: it's not Mad Max until 70 million Americans who didn't pay taxes in 2018 don't get their $1000 check which won't even cover the rent.
I'd be afraid to guess the turnaround time if someone has to claim that their payment was never received, if they even have such a contingency planned out yet.
Cafes, pubs and restaurants must close from Friday night, except for take-away food, to tackle coronavirus, UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson has said.
All the UK's nightclubs, theatres, cinemas, gyms & leisure centres have also been told to close "as soon as they reasonably can".
The PM said the situation will be reviewed each month.
Meanwhile the chancellor has said the government will pay 80% of wages for employees who are not working, up to £2,500 a month.
Quote: ChumpChange
PS: it's not Mad Max until 70 million Americans who didn't pay taxes in 2018 don't get their $1000 check which won't even cover the rent.
I believe no one can legally be evicted now for non payment of rent. I have a friend (probably makes 50k a year, who (now wisely, I think) has invested by buying two condos and renting them out. I think at this point he makes about $100 a month from each, while building equity. 20+ years from now he'll have stream of income and two condos once the mortgage is paid off. Like all of us, he just paid the real estate taxes. He has a mortgage payment. He has insurance payments. There are monthly condo fees. He has somewhat counted on the small income from them.
I'm guessing his paycheck to paycheck renters are putting 'rent' at the bottom of their list.
Quote: ChumpChange....Darden Restaurants closes all of its 1,800 dining rooms because of coronavirus.
Wow. that's going to be really interesting. I'm sure they did that because some states have ordered closures. But some states haven't. The treatment of unemployment claims (and corporate unemployment taxes/payments) is different in each of those cases. I wonder if they're also going to a unified curbside approach, too, since some states allow in-store to-go pickup and others are requiring an out-of-the-building approach.
Quote: SOOPOOI believe no one can legally be evicted now for non payment of rent. I have a friend (probably makes 50k a year, who (now wisely, I think) has invested by buying two condos and renting them out. I think at this point he makes about $100 a month from each, while building equity. 20+ years from now he'll have stream of income and two condos once the mortgage is paid off. Like all of us, he just paid the real estate taxes. He has a mortgage payment. He has insurance payments. There are monthly condo fees. He has somewhat counted on the small income from them.
I'm guessing his paycheck to paycheck renters are putting 'rent' at the bottom of their list.
Are you saying there are positive monthly cashflows of $100/condo? If so, that's AWESOME for him. When I had a condo I was renting out, it was a little less than cash neutral and I was relying on the paper loss (due to depreciation) on my taxes to make it worthwhile. If rent isn't paid, I suppose he'd have less income and the same expenses (assuming his mortgage payments couldn't be forborne) so he's have a bigger paper loss at tax time. He'd effectively get a discount on actual losses then, since his tax burden would be proportionately reduced.
Corrosion is their friend.Quote: TumblingBonesI wouldn't loose sleep over the loss of electricity. Keeping the power grid running does not require a lot of man-power. Only labor-intensive issue is linemen repairing distribution lines after a storm. The generation & transmission components are highly automated.
Quote: rdw4potusAre you saying there are positive monthly cashflows of $100/condo? If so, that's AWESOME for him. When I had a condo I was renting out, it was a little less than cash neutral and I was relying on the paper loss (due to depreciation) on my taxes to make it worthwhile. If rent isn't paid, I suppose he'd have less income and the same expenses (assuming his mortgage payments couldn't be forborne) so he's have a bigger paper loss at tax time. He'd effectively get a discount on actual losses then, since his tax burden would be proportionately reduced.
When you say 'less income', he won't be having 'less income', he'll be having NO income and having to pay a few thousand a month for the two places. He's lucky that he can work from home on his regular job, but there is no way he can afford an extra 1-2 thousand a month. His loss won't be a paper loss, its a real loss.
Quote: SOOPOOWhen you say 'less income', he won't be having 'less income', he'll be having NO income and having to pay a few thousand a month for the two places. He's lucky that he can work from home on his regular job, but there is no way he can afford an extra 1-2 thousand a month. His loss won't be a paper loss, its a real loss.
It's only no income if both renters short the entire rent amount. It's also only no income if the rent is forborne and not just deferred. I don't think he's under any obligation to forgive the rent payments, even if he is obligated to wait to start eviction proceedings. And it's only an extra 1-2 thousand a month if he can't get his mortgage company to defer/forbear his payments to them while his rental income is reduced. But temporary loss of income is a valid deferment reason on the uniform borrower's assistance form, so any lender should grant that request with the proper documentation.
Quote: ChumpChange....New York and neighboring states order hair salons and nail parlors to close
New Yorkers say they are finding it nearly impossible to file for unemployment benefits in the state as the coronavirus outbreak creates an unprecedented surge in people losing their jobs.
The New York state labor department said it received 159,000 calls by noon on Thursday, compared with the average of 10,000 calls a day. In some parts of the state, the department said, there was a 1,000% increase in claims. The website is seeing a 400% increase above normal in logins each day.
People trying to file claims complained the website wouldn’t load, even after hours of refreshing the page, and said it was difficult to connect to someone on the phone. One person said on Twitter they couldn’t get through after calling 50 times on Friday morning.
The surge in unemployment claims prompted the labor board to go on a hiring spree for jobs in the unemployment office and to break down the filing days by last name.
On Mondays, people can file claims if their last names starts with A to F. On Tuesday, it is open to G to N and Wednesday is O to Z. Thursdays and Fridays are open days for people to submit their claims if they miss their allocated day.
PS: it's not Mad Max until 70 million Americans who didn't pay taxes in 2018 don't get their $1000 check which won't even cover the rent.
Someone is telling you how to think and what to think. Those ideas are not your own, you were told to have those ideas.
Quote: onenickelmiracleSomeone is telling you how to think and what to think. Those ideas are not your own, you were told to have those ideas.
And that is what is known as irony.
Quote: billryanAnd that is what is known as irony.
Stfu
A month or two ago when I finished a roll I went to get another and found out we were out. Had one in second bathroom. So I went and bought one of those big 12 packs, and got another 9 pack right before everyone started hoarding. I think I'm good for a few months.
I don't get it. They're the biggest at-risk group right now. Do they just not give a **** that they're putting themselves, and subsequently others, at risk? It just seems so incredibly stupid and selfish to me.
If this gets any worse over the next few days (which I'm sure it will) I'm just gonna tell my boss I'm not coming in anymore until this whole thing blows over.
Quote: TigerWuMy wife and I both work in retail (both "non-essential" industries). Pretty much all of our customers recently have been older people/senior citizens.
I don't get it. They're the biggest at-risk group right now. Do they just not give a **** that they're putting themselves, and subsequently others, at risk? It just seems so incredibly stupid and selfish to me.
I don't see how older customers are more likely to increase Covid-19 risk than younger customers. Everyone has to buy food. Older folk more often need pharmacy services, and some Rx's must be picked up in person.
Younger customers -- (correctly) understanding they are at lower risk of severe effects -- may have greater social interaction with others than the average older customer. Young children often touch everything, taste everything, and touch parents frequently. Things like this might make younger customers more likely to carry the virus and infect others.
Older customers who venture out -- for good reason or bad -- are likely to suffer worse virus effects if they become infected than younger customers who become infected. But I don't see how anyone -- young or old -- is more or less likely to infect others. And, no one is safe.
Quote: LuckyPhowBut I don't see how anyone -- young or old -- is more or less likely to infect others. And, no one is safe.
Because the more people go out, the more people will get sick and spread it around. And the people I see out most right now doing stupid, non-essential things are elderly.
Anyone can pick up a prescription. Just need the patients name and date of birth & their own ID if the prescribed med is controlled. I get my parents' and in-laws' meds pretty routinely with no issues.
Quote: TigerWuMy wife and I both work in retail (both "non-essential" industries). Pretty much all of our customers recently have been older people/senior citizens.
I don't get it. They're the biggest at-risk group right now. Do they just not give a **** that they're putting themselves, and subsequently others, at risk? It just seems so incredibly stupid and selfish to me.
If this gets any worse over the next few days (which I'm sure it will) I'm just gonna tell my boss I'm not coming in anymore until this whole thing blows over.
As an older person, my thought is that I have lived a good life and if I get it I get it. I won't materially changes my habits.
Quote: DRichAs an older person, my thought is that I have lived a good life and if I get it I get it. I won't materially changes my habits.
But then you risk infecting other people if you have it and don't change your habits. Do you see how selfish that is?
