pacomartin
pacomartin
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November 3rd, 2010 at 12:27:14 PM permalink
Was there a single election (house, senate, or governor) where a republican incumbent was beaten? I'm inclined to say no, but I haven't checked all the states.

Was there a single election where there was no incumbent running, and a democrat won?

I am not interested in elections where the seat changed party and the incumbent was defeated in the primaries (like Democrat Arlen Specter of PA who after 30 years in the Senate was not nominated by his party, but the man who was nominated lost to the republicans).
mkl654321
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November 3rd, 2010 at 12:29:55 PM permalink
Quote: pacomartin

Was there a single election (house, senate, or governor) where a republican incumbent was beaten? I'm inclined to say no, but I haven't checked all the states.

Was there a single election where there was no incumbent running, and a democrat won?

I am not interested in elections where the seat changed party and the incumbent was defeated in the primaries (like Democrat Arlen Specter of PA who after 30 years in the Senate was not nominated by his party, but the man who was nominated lost to the republicans).



There were quite a few such cases, actually. They were dwarfed by the opposite event--a Repub unseating a Demo--but they did happen, at all levels.
The fact that a believer is happier than a skeptic is no more to the point than the fact that a drunken man is happier than a sober one. The happiness of credulity is a cheap and dangerous quality.---George Bernard Shaw
rdw4potus
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November 3rd, 2010 at 12:43:45 PM permalink
Quote: pacomartin

Was there a single election (house, senate, or governor) where a republican incumbent was beaten? I'm inclined to say no, but I haven't checked all the states.

Was there a single election where there was no incumbent running, and a democrat won?

I am not interested in elections where the seat changed party and the incumbent was defeated in the primaries (like Democrat Arlen Specter of PA who after 30 years in the Senate was not nominated by his party, but the man who was nominated lost to the republicans).



The house district surrounding Honolulu, HI flipped from R to D, so did the district representing New Orleans, LA. The governorships in CA and HI flipped to the Dems for sure. Probably also the governorships in MN and CT.

The governorships in CA, HI, MN, and CT would all meat your open-seat criteria as well. So would the DE and WV Senatorial races.
"So as the clock ticked and the day passed, opportunity met preparation, and luck happened." - Maurice Clarett
7outlineaway
7outlineaway
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November 3rd, 2010 at 12:49:39 PM permalink
In the House, D's picked up Louisiana-2 and Delaware-1. Louisiana was a defeat of an incumbent R (Cao) but Delaware was an open seat vacated by Michael Castle (who ran for Senate and lost in the primary to Christine O'Donnell). There are still about 10 undecided House races.

Murkowski will probably keep her Senate seat in Alaska; this by any measure should count as a Republican hold.

Among governors, there were three flips to D, in Vermont, Hawaii and California. In all three cases, the R was not the incumbent.

So to answer your question, among decided races only one incumbent R has lost, in LA-2.
rdw4potus
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November 3rd, 2010 at 12:53:48 PM permalink
Quote: 7outlineaway


So to answer your question, among decided races only one incumbent R has lost, in LA-2.



Also in HI-2. (Charles Djou)
"So as the clock ticked and the day passed, opportunity met preparation, and luck happened." - Maurice Clarett
7outlineaway
7outlineaway
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November 3rd, 2010 at 12:57:13 PM permalink
Quote: rdw4potus

Also in HI-2. (Charles Djou)



Sorry, thought that was still Abercrombie (D). Apparently there was a special election that Djou (R) won. Two House districts so far is correct.
pacomartin
pacomartin
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November 3rd, 2010 at 1:04:51 PM permalink
Quote: mkl654321

There were quite a few such cases, actually. They were dwarfed by the opposite event--a Repub unseating a Demo--but they did happen, at all levels.



In terms of the Senators it looks like all the Republican incumbents won.
Alabama—Richard Shelby- won 65%
Arizona—John McCain - won 59%
Georgia—Johnny Isakson - won 58%
Idaho—Mike Crapo - won 71%
Iowa—Chuck Grassley - won 65%
Louisiana—David Vitter - won 57%
North Carolina—Richard Burr - won 58%
Oklahoma—Tom Coburn - won 71%
South Carolina—Jim DeMint - won 63%
South Dakota—John Thune - unopposed
Alaska—Lisa Murkowski (defeated in primary, running as write-in) - winning so far by getting 41% of vote (no final decision).


I actually think that the only Democratic Senator who lost was Blanche Lincoln of Arkansas, whereas all of the definitive Republican pickup states have been cases where the incumbent didn't run. I know that Colorado and Washington haven't made a final decision as of this point in time.

It looks like there were no gains at all in governors. The two House seats where an incumbent republican was defeated were both historically Democrat over the last century, and the incumbent had served a short term (one was 34 week term, and the other Vietnamese candidate won in 2008, based more on him being a nontraditional republican).


It does seem that incumbency is still the order of the day in this election, with republicans moving into the vacated positions.
rdw4potus
rdw4potus
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November 3rd, 2010 at 1:08:31 PM permalink
Quote: pacomartin


If someone could report a race where the republican incumbent lost in the house or the governor please post it on this blog?



Incumbent House Republicans lost in HI-2 (Charles Djou) and LA-2 (Joseph Cao).
"So as the clock ticked and the day passed, opportunity met preparation, and luck happened." - Maurice Clarett
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