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Nareed
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October 26th, 2010 at 7:48:01 AM permalink
I got into an argument the other day by repeating the old saw that "Defenses win championships." So I gave the matter mroe thought.

what can the defense do? Well:

1) Keep the opponent from scoring much. This goes a long way towards winning a game.
2) Stop the opponent's offense far from your goal line, which gives the offense a chance at better field position.
3) Take the ball away from the opponent
4) Score points

The offense 1) scores points and 2) gives the defense a break.

Now, no team without at least a half-competent offense has a good chance at winning a championship no matter how good their defense. Largely because in the playoffs, if not sooner, it will play teams with similarly talented defenses.

But I will claim a team with a great offense has a worse chance of winning a championship if it has a lousy defense.

Let's look at the dominant dynasties and teams of the 1970s. What did they have:

1) The Steelers (4 Superbowls) had the best defense of their time, The Steel Curtain. They also had a powerful offense, including two very able receivers, Stallworth and Swan, and two great runningbacks, Harris and Bleier. And of course Blonde Bomber Bradshaw leading the offense.

2) The Cowboys (2 Superbowls, if memory serves) had the second best defense of the time, The Doomsday Defense, but also a powerful offense with Capt. Comeback Staubach, Drew Pearson and, later on, Tony Dorsett.

3) The Miami Dolphins (2 Superbowls, One Perfect Season) had a great defense as well, The No-Name Defense (best name for a defense ever!), but also a good offense of Bob Griese, larry Czonka and Paul Warfield. Still, it's worth noting that in the 72 Perfect Season (17-0), starting QB Griese left for much of the season with an injury and was replaced by Earl Morrall.

4) The Oakland Raiders had a good defense, but they relied mostly on offense, mostly with Stabler and Casper (the Ghost). As I recall they won 2 Superbowls.

5) The Vikings (2 or 3 NFC Championships) had the Puprle People Eaters defense, plus a decent offense. They never won a Superbowl, though they reached 4 overall.

6) The Denver Broncos (One AFC championship) had the Orange Crush Defense and won the AFC once. They also had a good QB in Craig Morton, who played for Dallas until Staubach replaced him ina QB controversy.

In the 80s the dominant team was San Francisco (4 Superbowls) which undeniably rested on Joe Montana and Jerry Rice. But their defense was very good, including the great Ronnie Lott.

Two other big teams int eh 80s which relied on offense were the Chargers, of the Air Coryel(SP?) Offense, and the Dolphins with Marino, Clayton and Duper. San Diego never won even a conference championship, Miami got one but lost the Superbowl. In both cases they had a pass-heavy offense and no defense to speak of.

Back to the 70s, the also-ran team of the AFC was Houston. Their offense was first rate, but their defense wasn't. Even so, they came, perhaps, within a blown call of beating the Steelers at the AFC championsip game.

So overall I favor a good defense over a good ofense. And the best coaching combination consists fo a head coach strong on defense with a top-notch offensive coordinator (the top notch defensive coordinator is a given).

BTW I've noticed many good defenses had nicknames, but few good offenses did. Offhand I can only think of two: Air Coryel and the Rams' Greatest Show on Turf.
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mkl654321
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October 26th, 2010 at 7:55:55 AM permalink
You've forgotten the SF 49ers of the 80's/90's, who won with huge offensive firepower and a reasonably good defense.

Present day--the Oregon Ducks win with a barely adequate defense, but ridiculously prolific offense.

NFL--Baltimore Ravens, for several years had a terrific defense, but lack of offense kept them out of the top echelon.

NFL--SF 49ers have had a decent defense for a few years, but their utterly wretched offense has kept them in the NFC West's toilet for almost a decade.

These are just examples, and I'm sure there are dozens of such examples on either side of the argument, but it seems to me that a powerful offense can make up for the shortcomings of a porous defense, but a good defense, lacking a good offense, just makes you lose games by scores like 13-7.
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MathExtremist
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October 26th, 2010 at 8:02:32 AM permalink
Sport is about entertainment, and to many a final score of 13-7 after a well-fought defensive battle is far less satisfying than a final score of 41-35 (skipping the broken collarbones, of course).
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Nareed
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October 26th, 2010 at 8:18:51 AM permalink
Quote: MathExtremist

Sport is about entertainment, and to many a final score of 13-7 after a well-fought defensive battle is far less satisfying than a final score of 41-35 (skipping the broken collarbones, of course).



I think the old saw in full is "The offense sells tickets, but defenses win championships."
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Nareed
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October 26th, 2010 at 10:03:10 AM permalink
Quote: mkl654321

You've forgotten the SF 49ers of the 80's/90's, who won with huge offensive firepower and a reasonably good defense.



And this is why I have you blocked:

Quote:

In the 80s the dominant team was San Francisco (4 Superbowls) which undeniably rested on Joe Montana and Jerry Rice. But their defense was very good, including the great Ronnie Lott.



Anyone who can't tell Montana and Rice were part of the best offense of the best team in the 80s, shouldn't be posting here at all.


What I did overlook is the 2000 Baltimore Ravens. They won a Superbowl squarely on the shoulders of their defense.

A case has been made about the '85 Bears, too, but that offense had Willy Gault and the late Walter Peyton.

Another point for a good defense are the curent Steelers. While they have a decent offense in Roethlisberger, Ward, Wallace, Miller and Mendenhall, they're no threat to break or even slightly crack any offensive records. Meantime they won Superbowl XLIII with one of the worst offensive lines in living memory, and this year the defense propped up Dixon and Batch to a 3-1 record
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7outlineaway
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October 26th, 2010 at 10:19:20 AM permalink
Quote: Nareed

Now, no team without at least a half-competent offense has a good chance at winning a championship no matter how good their defense. Largely because in the playoffs, if not sooner, it will play teams with similarly talented defenses.



The 2000 Ravens won the 2001 Super Bowl with a pretty nondescript offense. A couple other teams with erratic offenses but spectacular defenses (the 1976 Steelers and Buddy Ryan-era Eagles teams come to mind) got pretty close to the SB.

Anyway, I think if your defense is effective at keeping points off the board, you stand to benefit more by especially fortuitous plays by your offense or special teams, as each individual score is worth propotionally more in a low-scoring game. Also, the effect of turnovers by your own offense is reduced if the other team is unable to move the ball.
mkl654321
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October 26th, 2010 at 12:40:52 PM permalink
Quote: NareedAnyone who can't tell Montana and Rice were part of the best offense of the best team in the 80s, shouldn't be posting here at all.[/q



Nareed, are you off your meds? That's what I SAID--that their offense was powerful:

(quote): You've forgotten the SF 49ers of the 80's/90's, who won with huge offensive firepower and a reasonably good defense. (unquote)

And their defense was good, but not great. Ronnie Lott wasn't on every one of those Super Bowl teams, and in any case, he was only one player.

Anyway, PLEEEEEEEEEZE forgive me for offering an opinion that differed, even slightly, from that of the self-appointed God of Football. I was under the mistaken impression that you actually wanted people's opinion on this.

The fact that a believer is happier than a skeptic is no more to the point than the fact that a drunken man is happier than a sober one. The happiness of credulity is a cheap and dangerous quality.---George Bernard Shaw
EnvyBonus
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October 27th, 2010 at 7:42:17 PM permalink
Quote: 7outlineaway

Anyway, I think if your defense is effective at keeping points off the board, you stand to benefit more by especially fortuitous plays by your offense or special teams, as each individual score is worth propotionally more in a low-scoring game.



I think this is a very good point. I would add to this by saying that in the game of football, it is easier for a great offense to have an uncharacteristically bad game every once in a awhile than it is for a defense to have such a game. If you have a great offense, with a great quarterback, but that quarterback has a bad game, then a large portion of your offense suffers (especially in today's game of pass-happy offenses with pass-friendly rules). Conversely, there's nobody on the defense with that much control over the whole defense.
The closest comparison would be a DB who is consistently being beat by a receiver, but even then it is unlikely that a team can exploit that defensive player every single play. They would also make some coverage adjustment to give a struggling defensive player help. But with a QB who is having an off day, there's no help. It impacts every pass play. Unless Frank Reich is standing on the sideline, if your QB has one of these games in the playoffs, you are done. I think that's why a great defensive team won't get unlucky in the playoffs, but a great offensive team might, and therefore I'd rather have a great defense than a great offense.
Nareed
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October 27th, 2010 at 8:13:21 PM permalink
Quote: EnvyBonus

I think this is a very good point. I would add to this by saying that in the game of football, it is easier for a great offense to have an uncharacteristically bad game every once in a awhile than it is for a defense to have such a game.



True. But it's also very easy for a great defense to give up the game in the last series by going "prevent defense."
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thecesspit
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October 27th, 2010 at 9:12:39 PM permalink
Quote: Nareed

True. But it's also very easy for a great defense to give up the game in the last series by going "prevent defense."



Prevent the win defense...
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thlf
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October 28th, 2010 at 6:33:28 AM permalink
How about the colts in the last decade. Very good offense, mostly porous defense. Always in the thick of things in January
TomG
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October 28th, 2010 at 6:39:55 AM permalink
Scoring points and stopping the other team from scoring are each virtually 50% in every single major team sport

Baseball is the only one where they are completely separate entities. In football, basketball, hockey, soccer, et cetera, the offense and defense can sometimes feed off each other with field position, time of possession, fast breaks and all that. But over the course of a six month season or so, it will end up favoring both sides equally
TomG
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October 28th, 2010 at 6:48:58 AM permalink
Nareed,

In football, a good defense can take the ball away from the opponent. A good offense will keep the ball away from the opponent

A good defense will give the offense better field position. A good offense will give the other team worse field position

Also, a good offense that scores frequently can sometimes force the other team to pass much more often to keep up, effectively reducing their playbook
EnvyBonus
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October 28th, 2010 at 4:35:16 PM permalink
Quote: TomG

Nareed,

In football, a good defense can take the ball away from the opponent. A good offense will keep the ball away from the opponent



I can't completely agree. A good offense that mainly utilizes the pass will not keep the ball from an opponent as long as an average offense that utilizes the run.
MathExtremist
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October 28th, 2010 at 4:55:36 PM permalink
Quote: EnvyBonus

I can't completely agree. A good offense that mainly utilizes the pass will not keep the ball from an opponent as long as an average offense that utilizes the run.


On the other hand, keeping the ball away from the opponent is not the goal -- scoring points is, and the two aren't really correlated. The highest-scoring team in college football has a lower time of possession than the lowest-scoring team:

Oregon, 55.1 pts/game, 26:40 time of possession
San Jose State, 10 pts/game (seriously?), 28:57 time of possession.

In the NFL, there is a correlation between time of possession and yards/game, but that doesn't always translate into points/game: the Pats, Jets, and Titans are all in the lower half of the league in yards/game but are three of the four top-scoring teams.
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Mosca
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October 28th, 2010 at 5:00:11 PM permalink
Both.

Start at the beginning. Count the number of truly one dimensional teams, either offense or defense, that have won the Super Bowl. they're there (the Ravens), but there aren't many of them. Every insanely powerful offense has had a good defense; every defensive wall has had an offense that could put up the numbers.

I'm leaving work in a couple minutes, I'll write more after I get situated at home.
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Mosca
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October 28th, 2010 at 7:38:54 PM permalink
* = NFL/AFL, pre-merger.

**StL entry fixed, noted here so that following posts make sense.

SB Winner Rank Off Rank Def
I Green Bay 4th* 1st*
II Green Bay 9th* 3rd*
III NY Jets 2nd* 4th*
IV KC Chiefs 2nd* 1st*
V Balt Colts 6th 7th
VI Dal Cowboys 1st 7th
VII Mia Dolphins 1st 1st
VIII Mia Dolphins 5th 1st
IX Pgh Steelers 6th 2nd
X Pgh Steelers 5th 2nd
XI Oak Raiders 4th 12th
XII Dal Cowboys 2nd 8th
XIII Pgh Steelers 5th 1st
XIV Pgh Steelers 1st 5th
XV Oak Raiders 7th 10th
XVI Sf 49ers 7th 2nd
XVII Wash Redskins 12th 1st
XVIII LA Raiders 3rd 13th
XIX SF 49ers 2nd 1st
XX Chi Bears 2nd 1st
XXI NY Giants 8th 2nd
XXII Wash Redskins 4th 6th
XXIII SF 49ers 7th 8th
XXIV SF 49ers 1st 3rd
XXV NY Giants 15th 1st
XXVI Wash Redskins 1st 2nd
XXVII Dal Cowboys 2nd 5th
XXVIII Dal Cowboys 2nd 2nd
XXIX SF 49ers 1st 6th
XXX Dal Cowbows 1st 6th
XXXI Dal Cowboys 3rd 3rd
XXXII GB Packers 1st 1st
XXXIII Den Broncos 1st 6th
XXXIV Den Broncos 2nd 8th
XXXV StL Rams** 1st 4th
XXXVI Balt Ravens 14th 1st
XXXVII NE Patriots 6th 6th
XXXVIII TB Buccaneers 18th 1st
XXXIX NE Patriots 4th 2nd
XL Pgh Steelers 9th 3rd
XLI Indy Colts 1st 23rd
XLII NY Giants 14th 17th
XLIII Pgh Steelers 20th 1st
XLIV NO Saints 1st 20th


OK, some anomalies there. The '07 Colts and '09 Saints, the '03 Bucs and the '08 Steelers. But the '02 Ravens were decent enough on offense. And look at some of the teams that built their reputation on one or the other: for defensive monsters, the '84 Bears were 2nd in offense. the '74 and '75 Steelers were 6th and 5th in offense. The Green Bay offensive powerhouse of '98 was 1st in defense; the '00 Rams of Kurt Warner were 4th in defense. But overall, these teams are balanced...

Average offense = 4.96.
Average defense = 4.88.
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FinsRule
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October 28th, 2010 at 11:05:19 PM permalink
Mosca, excellent work.
thecesspit
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October 28th, 2010 at 11:09:23 PM permalink
Why did the Major league Baseball team get to play in the 2000 superbowl? The St Louis Rams played, not the Cardinals :) That was the Greatest show on Turf....
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
Mosca
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October 29th, 2010 at 5:54:24 AM permalink
Quote: thecesspit

Why did the Major league Baseball team get to play in the 2000 superbowl? The St Louis Rams played, not the Cardinals :) That was the Greatest show on Turf....



Yikes. I had just been reading about the St Louis Cardinals and Jim Hart in the mid-70s, and I had old time football on the brain.

(The book I'm in the middle of is Badasses: The Legend of Snake, Foo, Dr. Death, and John Madden's Oakland Raiders. Speaking as a Steelers fan who started following the team in 1964, this is a pretty good book. For most Steelers fans, the Raiders were our second favorite team. We hated them the second most, and loved them the second most. [First most hated was the Cowboys, for whom there was no love. There was only scorn and derision.])
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Mosca
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October 29th, 2010 at 8:30:00 AM permalink
Quote: FinsRule

Mosca, excellent work.



It is worth noting that the '72/'73 Dolphins went an incredible 32-2 over two seasons. IMO this is even more impressive than the 17-0 of '72 by itself. How great was that team? In the trenches, we might never see another like it. In the 73 AFL Championship game and the Super Bowl, Greise threw 13 passes... total. 6 against Oakland, 7 against the Vikings. Why pass when Csonka, Morris, and Kiick run for 266 yards and 196 yards against two of the greatest defenses to ever play, the Raiders and Vikings? That was one of the greatest offensive lines to ever play the game.
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thecesspit
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October 29th, 2010 at 9:42:10 AM permalink
Which brings me to another line of reasoning... Skill players win games, Linemen win championships...
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
Nareed
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October 29th, 2010 at 5:05:46 PM permalink
Quote: Mosca

Average offense = 4.96.
Average defense = 4.88.



Indeed great work. Thanks!

But this brings another thought: typically offenses are rated on yards gained, while defenses go on yards allowed; both per game, season, average, etc.

Shouldn't offense be rated by points scored and defenses by points allowed?

Of course that would leave open the questions:

How to acount for special teams' points?
Who gets credited with games won?
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Ayecarumba
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October 29th, 2010 at 5:29:31 PM permalink
Quote: Nareed

Indeed great work. Thanks!

But this brings another thought: typically offenses are rated on yards gained, while defenses go on yards allowed; both per game, season, average, etc.

Shouldn't offense be rated by points scored and defenses by points allowed?

Of course that would leave open the questions:

How to acount for special teams' points?
Who gets credited with games won?



Defenses can also score points. Games are also won by special teams points alone. Scores by either may change the offensive strategy to favor clock-chewing run plays.
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Mosca
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October 29th, 2010 at 6:14:13 PM permalink
Quote: Nareed

Indeed great work. Thanks!

But this brings another thought: typically offenses are rated on yards gained, while defenses go on yards allowed; both per game, season, average, etc.

Shouldn't offense be rated by points scored and defenses by points allowed?

Of course that would leave open the questions:

How to acount for special teams' points?
Who gets credited with games won?



Nareed, those rankings are based on points scored/points allowed.
Source: Pro Football Reference
(Also valuable sports sites are Baseball Reference, Hockey Reference, College Football Reference, etc; they are some of the best out there.)

Sure, there are most likely points scored by the defense in there... as well as points given up by the offense. Sure, the numbers are inexact. But they don't need to be exact to make the point that generally speaking, Super Bowl winners are well balanced teams that perform on both sides of the line. To pick a team that is often chosen as one of the great point scorers of all time, it is easy for the casual fan to remember Kurt Warner, Marshall Faulk, Isaac Bruce, and Torry Holt. But they forget that Kevin Carter had 17 sacks. Todd Lyght had 6 interceptions. The defense as a whole had 57 sacks and 29 interceptions. By any measure, that team was tough on both sides.
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Nareed
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October 29th, 2010 at 7:08:53 PM permalink
Quote: Mosca

Nareed, those rankings are based on points scored/points allowed.



Just goes to show I've gone with about 6 hours non-solid sleep since yesterday at 6 am.
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AZDuffman
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October 30th, 2010 at 9:13:06 AM permalink
Quote: MathExtremist

Sport is about entertainment, and to many a final score of 13-7 after a well-fought defensive battle is far less satisfying than a final score of 41-35 (skipping the broken collarbones, of course).



There is more to it than just points scored. Myself I love a good defensive battle, but I do not like watching two incompotent offenses simply punting the ball back and forth after gooing 3-out over and over. In 1997 I forget who Green Bay was playing in the Superbowl, but the first quarter seemed nothing but long bomb, score; long bomb, score on both sides. I told a co-worker how boring I found that style of play and he thought I was nuts. But I will prefer the chess-match style every time.

I think that preference for offense and high-scoring games is just part of the short attention-span most Americans seem to have. Basketball is far more popular than hockey for example. Even if you take away the regional winter sport aspect of hockey I feel it is because there is a basket a minute in basketball but it takes forever to get a score in hockey. The NFL keeps changing rules to promote offense over defense and the pro-bowl is really designed to showcase offensive play. Meanwhile, in other parts of the world, 2-1 is a high-scoring soccer game.
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Nareed
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October 30th, 2010 at 9:30:52 AM permalink
Quote: AZDuffman

The NFL keeps changing rules to promote offense over defense and the pro-bowl is really designed to showcase offensive play.



Really? I thought the Probowl was designed to put the audience to sleep, and to reward top players with a junket to Hawaii. Naturally the last is no longer so, as the game, such as it is, is now held before the Superbowl in the same city. I forget when the Superbowl is scheduled to be played in NJ, but that season players will compete not to get into the Pro Bowl. Who wants to play off-season out in the open in New Jersey in February?


Quote:

Meanwhile, in other parts of the world, 2-1 is a high-scoring soccer game.



I'm just to tired to come up with some highly sarcastic, yet witty, comment further demeaning sucker. So let's just assume I did and some sucker fans were offended.
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thecesspit
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October 30th, 2010 at 10:09:01 AM permalink
Okay, just assume I got offended by you narrow minded comment.

It all worked out :)
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
Nareed
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October 30th, 2010 at 10:22:58 AM permalink
Quote: thecesspit

Okay, just assume I got offended by you narrow minded comment.

It all worked out :)



See? A good time was had by all and all that ;)

Thanks
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AZDuffman
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October 30th, 2010 at 10:58:01 AM permalink
Quote: Nareed

Really? I thought the Probowl was designed to put the audience to sleep, and to reward top players with a junket to Hawaii. Naturally the last is no longer so, as the game, such as it is, is now held before the Superbowl in the same city. I forget when the Superbowl is scheduled to be played in NJ, but that season players will compete not to get into the Pro Bowl. Who wants to play off-season out in the open in New Jersey in February?



How can it put people to sleep if nobody tunes in to the game in the first place?
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Nareed
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October 30th, 2010 at 12:03:55 PM permalink
Quote: AZDuffman

How can it put people to sleep if nobody tunes in to the game in the first place?



I said it was designed to put people to sleep. I never claimed it was well designed :P
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jamec9869
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November 3rd, 2010 at 9:20:05 PM permalink
Defesne - voted






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