ItsCalledSoccer
ItsCalledSoccer
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Joined: Aug 30, 2010
September 22nd, 2010 at 1:30:27 PM permalink
I'm a little new, is there an existing thread on this topic? If not, here's my question ...

At what point does the banker's offer become mathematically (not emotionally or any factor outside of mathematics) the best decision?

While watching the game being played, I always do a quick estimate of two things: median and mean of the remaining prize amounts. Because the prize structure is so bottom-heavy, the median is generally significantly lower. And, for the same reason, calculating an estimate of mean is easy: take the however-many-makes-sense number of bigger prizes remaining, add them up, and divide by the TOTAL number of prizes remaining (basically, approximating all the lower amounts at $0).

I'll have a median of, say, $1,000 and a mean of, say, $40,000. The banker offers, say, $35,000.

I know it depends on several factors, but is there a quick rule-of-thumb "deal/no-deal" criteria for the best mathematical decision given the mean, median, prizes remaining, and the banker's offer?
marksolberg
marksolberg
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Joined: Nov 14, 2009
September 22nd, 2010 at 1:36:23 PM permalink
There are several questions and answers on the Wizards companion site, www.wizardofodds.com
Here is one.

https://wizardofodds.com/askthewizard/150

Mark
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