Booming Stock Market
November 26th, 2016 at 5:35:35 AM
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The stock market has gone up almost every day since Trump won. It did almost the same but not quite as strongly after the Brits voted for Brexit. Virtually all of the pundits said the opposite was sure to happen; that the market was sure to fall and fall badly if Trump won and if Brexit won the vote . It shows the hopelessness of looking towards these talking heads for advice on what to do. These clowns never acknowledge their past errors which are too numerous to count. They just go right on predicting; pretending that they can see the future.
Please don't feed the trolls
November 26th, 2016 at 7:01:36 AM
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I gave up trying to figure out what makes the stock market or any individual stock go up or down. If a stock announces better than expected earnings it may go down.... "We were hoping for even more better than the analysts predicted..."
Amazon makes a dollar for every 180 dollars of its value...... Even a 1% CD makes more sense...
If interest rates go up stocks should theoretically go down..... but.... "Stocks fell despite the interest rate rise as the market had already 'priced in' the interest rate rise."
Good luck with crediting the Trump election..... I am sure Obama and the Dems are still taking the credit for any gains until Jan 20.
Amazon makes a dollar for every 180 dollars of its value...... Even a 1% CD makes more sense...
If interest rates go up stocks should theoretically go down..... but.... "Stocks fell despite the interest rate rise as the market had already 'priced in' the interest rate rise."
Good luck with crediting the Trump election..... I am sure Obama and the Dems are still taking the credit for any gains until Jan 20.
November 26th, 2016 at 7:44:06 AM
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Quote: SOOPOO
Amazon makes a dollar for every 180 dollars of its value...... Even a 1% CD makes more sense...
These "story stocks" are truly frustrating. Of course there is some value for what will be over what is. Smart money managers look and know that in the end, AMZN is a retail stock and Tesla is an auto stock. ROI is ROI though no matter what the "story" is.
One day it will all crash back down. But fortunes are made and lost before.
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others
November 26th, 2016 at 8:19:54 AM
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I can't tell you which way the next 100 point trend will be, but I can guarantee you which way the next 100 percent trend will be.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
November 26th, 2016 at 8:35:41 AM
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Quote: billryanI can't tell you which way the next 100 point trend will be, but I can guarantee you which way the next 100 percent trend will be.
For a long, long time I struggled with the question of why the stock market has always gone up when considered in the long term. It just didn't make any sense at all to me. Something like 80% of new business ventures fail. Of course, the market is composed of many more established companies but still an awful lot of them fail or do poorly also. Finally, I thought of the only answer that could satisfy me. The stock market is speculation, and human beings are by nature optimistic. They believe they're going to make money so they pour money into the market causing it to rise until fear takes over and then subsides and optimism again takes over. I have nothing against religion or religious people but think about it. Something like half of the world believes they're going to heaven or Paradise after their life is over. All because of what's written in a book that's more than a thousand years old. Amazing.
Please don't feed the trolls
November 26th, 2016 at 9:03:36 AM
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The deep pockets in this stock market game don't show their hands immediately. Particularly when their belief that Clinton would win, turned out to be false. They made their bets on a Clinton win. They need time to restructure their positions. Hedge funds and large brokers are the only ones in position to bid the market up with the intent of unloading positions.
I say that we're looking at a large decline in the next 7 months. My guess is somewhere around 35%, and over the next several years I think we would lose, at its trough, 70%. Brexit (assuming that it is executed on) and Trump's protectionist actions (also assuming that he follow thru) will whack us economically. The kind of tax cuts that Trump is talking about will drive us straight into a depression. Simple math on a corporate tax cut from 35% to 15% would mean that EVERY single business would need to see their sales rise by more than 130% in a year. A business paying tax on a billion at 35% now and having their rate change to 15% would mean that they will send in $250 million less in taxes. They'll make it up by doing more business you say? In order for them to get back to providing the government that additional $250 million in taxes would mean that the business' sales would need to go from $1 billion to $2.3 billion. Chances of that? ZERO. NADA. ZILCH.
One just needs to look at the countries that have previously moved towards protectionism and look at their current unemployment rates and cost of living.
All of the above is subject to change based upon Trump's whims.
I say that we're looking at a large decline in the next 7 months. My guess is somewhere around 35%, and over the next several years I think we would lose, at its trough, 70%. Brexit (assuming that it is executed on) and Trump's protectionist actions (also assuming that he follow thru) will whack us economically. The kind of tax cuts that Trump is talking about will drive us straight into a depression. Simple math on a corporate tax cut from 35% to 15% would mean that EVERY single business would need to see their sales rise by more than 130% in a year. A business paying tax on a billion at 35% now and having their rate change to 15% would mean that they will send in $250 million less in taxes. They'll make it up by doing more business you say? In order for them to get back to providing the government that additional $250 million in taxes would mean that the business' sales would need to go from $1 billion to $2.3 billion. Chances of that? ZERO. NADA. ZILCH.
One just needs to look at the countries that have previously moved towards protectionism and look at their current unemployment rates and cost of living.
All of the above is subject to change based upon Trump's whims.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
November 26th, 2016 at 9:17:29 AM
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The stock market goes up because the economy expands more than it contracts.
It really is that simple.
It really is that simple.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
November 26th, 2016 at 9:41:15 AM
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"What, me worry?"
November 26th, 2016 at 9:44:44 AM
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Quote: lilredroosterFor a long, long time I struggled with the question of why the stock market has always gone up when considered in the long term. It just didn't make any sense at all to me. Something like 80% of new business ventures fail.
The failed businesses get removed from the DOW and other averages. GM was removed when it went bankrupt. Others have been removed over the years as their businesses no longer "fit" the model of the economy. Only one of the original Dow 12* industrials has stayed in the index since the beginning, the other 11 are merged into something else and 1 is gone entirely.
So not as simple as stocks keep going up, the economy though keeps chugging.
* While there are 30 stocks in the DOW today when it started there were just 12.
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others
November 26th, 2016 at 10:15:42 AM
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Many of the biggest companies in the world today didn't exist forty years ago.
Microsoft. Apple.Amazon.
Many of the biggest companies back than no longer exist or are shadows of themselves.
Xerox, GM, Kodak,Panasonic, ITT, ATT, Gulf and Western
The wheel keeps turning.
Microsoft. Apple.Amazon.
Many of the biggest companies back than no longer exist or are shadows of themselves.
Xerox, GM, Kodak,Panasonic, ITT, ATT, Gulf and Western
The wheel keeps turning.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
November 26th, 2016 at 12:45:21 PM
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Quote: billryanThe stock market goes up because the economy expands more than it contracts.
It really is that simple.
That may not be the main reason stocks go up. Some of the expansion is caused by private companies not in the market. Some expansion is caused by small caps and micro caps just coming in to the market that have little or no effect on the movement of the large indexes. Poor performers being jettisoned from the Dow and S&P and being replaced by strong performers cannot explain it either. The poor performers have already weighed on the indexes and as to the new strong performers that are replacing them; there is no guarantee that they will continue to perform well. I believe the rise in stocks is largely based maybe not exactly on irrational exuberance but a kind of sunny optimism on the part of so many investors. Not all that unlike the dice players on this site who claim they will win by finding hot shooters. But unlike the dice players with the market bettors it can be a self fulfilling prophecy if enough people think this way. This optimism can be seen by the dramatic widening of the p/e ratio over time indicating that investors are willing to pay a much higher price for a stock than what its fundamentals have historically indicated is a fair price. Here is a cut and paste from Shiller's book showing the extreme change in the ratios:
1911-1920 10.0
1921-1930 12.8
1931-1940 16.2
1941-1950 9.5
1951-1960 12.6
1961-1970 17.7
1971-1980 10.4
1981-1990 12.4
1991-2000 22.6
2001-2010 22.4
Table: S&P 500 Index Median P/E Ratios
Also, the big money players don't like it when they're forced to the sidelines by a fearful market. There is only so much time that they will be willing to accept earning one percent on a Treasury note which is what happens when so many exit at one time. They're chomping at the bit to get back in and see if they can make 30% in a year. These guys want action.
Last edited by: lilredrooster on Nov 26, 2016
Please don't feed the trolls
November 26th, 2016 at 2:04:02 PM
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You can thank the 80's and the creation of the mutual fund. A lot of people, that are going to want to collect, were sold a pipe dream. Unfortunately, they will be wishing to be churned in a bad wipeout in the Bonzai Pipeline instead of what is coming. Looking like 2 years tops.
The right man for the job has been put in place. The longer we continue lying to ourselves the more devastating the impact.
The right man for the job has been put in place. The longer we continue lying to ourselves the more devastating the impact.
November 26th, 2016 at 2:08:19 PM
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You can thank the 80's and the creation of the mutual fund. A lot of people, that are going to want to collect, were sold a pipe dream. Unfortunately, they will be wishing to be churned in a bad wipeout in the Bonzai Pipeline instead of what is coming. Looking like 2 years tops.
The right man for the job has been put in place. The longer we continue lying to ourselves the more devastating the impact.
The right man for the job has been put in place. The longer we continue lying to ourselves the more devastating the impact.
November 26th, 2016 at 2:23:12 PM
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More money entering the market than leaving: good.
More money leaving the market than entering: bad.
More money leaving the market than entering: bad.
"What, me worry?"
November 26th, 2016 at 2:38:03 PM
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Quote: billryanMany of the biggest companies in the world today didn't exist forty years ago.
Microsoft. Apple.Amazon.
Apple and Microsoft are both more than 40 years old (barely) but your point is well taken.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
November 26th, 2016 at 3:56:21 PM
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Quote: MaxPenYou can thank the 80's and the creation of the mutual fund. A lot of people, that are going to want to collect, were sold a pipe dream. Unfortunately, they will be wishing to be churned in a bad wipeout in the Bonzai Pipeline instead of what is coming. Looking like 2 years tops.
The right man for the job has been put in place. The longer we continue lying to ourselves the more devastating the impact.
Tens of thousands of people have already collected and are enjoying a comfortable retirement. While you were knocking yourself out looking for great conditions at a blackjack table the smart ones bought quality funds or index funds and did almost nothing for decades. It's called buy and hold. Dismiss the stock market as a pipe dream? It began trading in 1792. On January 2, 1900 the Dow closed at 68.13. A couple of World Wars, a couple of atomic bombs and several trillion transactions later and yesterday the Dow closed at 19,152.14. Some, I would guess you, call the stock market gambling. If you like very conservative investments consider this. The highest CD rate I could find right now is 1.6%. The average annual rate of inflation is 3.22%. If you make a very conservative investment such as this, or a Treasury note you didn't gamble. You just about guaranteed yourself a loss. You are just one of tens of thousands of people who have since 1792 predicted a total wipeout of the stock market. Good luck avoiding 6/5 tables, CSMs, ASMs, facial recognition, license plate recognition, sweaty pit bosses and foaming at the mouth casino security personnel. You'll need it.
Please don't feed the trolls
November 26th, 2016 at 5:39:21 PM
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I think it would be more useful for attempts at broad multi-decade generational comparisons if some metrics other than PE were involved. If the long honored saying "price is truth" has some degree of merit, it will be in part as a reflection of the present value of future earnings, among other things, and Price/Earnings fails to indicate dynamics of changes in growth rates, and therefore may omit a significant part of what is being valued by the "P" of the equation and what must be discounted by how much for how long in the "E" of the simple ratio. It works better when comparing relatively static enterprises, such as a portfolio of established coal mines and built out railroads, for which lower PEs should be expected as a rational measure of significant real differences in the revenue stream dynamics compared to higher beta publicly traded firms involved in more rapidly developing businesses, and the differing market aggregate P/Es may not necessarily be showing lower pricing compared to a decade with greater weight in the S&P mega-corp index coming from rapid expansion of fundamentally different high PE enterprises.Quote: lilredrooster...<SNIP>...
1911-1920 10.0
1921-1930 12.8
1931-1940 16.2
1941-1950 9.5
1951-1960 12.6
1961-1970 17.7
1971-1980 10.4
1981-1990 12.4
1991-2000 22.6
2001-2010 22.4
Table: S&P 500 Index Median P/E Ratios
...<SNIP>...
Here's a thought experiment for illustration. If instead of equity investments they were all government bonds or insurance annuities or court ordered scheduled distributions of assets held in a trust fund, with the very same kinds of major differences in the timing and rates of change in the revenue curves provided by differently scaled escalation of coupon payments or distributions to beneficiaries, that would also result in distinctly different ratios of current value (price) to a simple current revenue figure (earnings) or any other static single nearby reporting period. If the straightforward basic P/E ratios came out the same for those hypothetical simple income financial assets without regard for differently shaped revenue curves, that would be a strange irrational pricing mistake.
I think something else, much more like PEG ratios (price/earnings to growth) could provide a better metric, and might potentially provide a somewhat more persuasive snippet of evidence for arguing the case that equities have (or have not) become priced at a more enthusiastic level for about a quarter of a century, resulting in a higher (or even possibly a lower) premium paid per time/growth adjusted unit of revenue embedded in the fractional ownership of the underlying fundamentals.
ADDENDUM to RANT at the wind:
Then, besides peering into excessively or insufficiently exuberant souls, one can get into potential inflation/deflation of financial asset pricing due to government action changing the basic monetary aggregates. When the government uses their sovereign monopoly on money to ramp up an enormous increase in the total supply of a nation's money because they've decided we must be rescued from something this way, those newly created bucks or looneys or stinkin' dineros gotta go somewhere, by simple operation of arithmetic. When national monetary authorities do that, instead of twenny dead presidents at the bar seeking something to mate with, shazam and presto, there are now suddenly fiddy distinguished geezer portraits demanding to become the new and improved price of some shiny object on the first pretty thing that will have them. If our highly credentialed civil servants of finite wisdom & infinite monetary creation capacity are just pushing on a fundamentally unenthusiastic string among the entrepreneural people who really make real stuff get done, then trying to goose productive activity by shoveling out even more new buckets-o-bucks expands the total supply of underemployed money sloshing into the short-term parking zones of monetary aggregates.
The poor engraved symbols of value get antsy piling on top of each other in those monetary roadside rest stops, until the redundant newborn bucks flow into a suddenly crowded but reassuringly popular lazy money squatters camp. Like silver mania and gold bubbles, or the rush to pitch a tent in a trendy bubble of paperclips.com style hipster approved dot-com craze vapor business at the end of the 90s, or next decade in another episode of officially sanctioned money mischief piling into portfolios of nothing down zero equity no documentation Federally blessed and packaged mortgage notes on zillion dollar mansions for derelicts and equity-cash-out liar loans secured by a deed to the torched remains of a tool shed in the ghetto, or decade after that paying to be officially sprinkled with this era's version of holy water by getting into bankrolling the newest greatest magic show featuring the performance art of fabulously fashionable phantom energy fantasies that manage to consume more to fabricate and transport than their trivial fizzle of wimpy output in their brief production life, or... whatever. Different decades, different hair, switching teams of cheerleaders recruited from opposite political orientations, but the same monetary septic tank. When it occasionally becomes official policy of "expert" technocrats to puff up the quantity of money for a while, as it has been in multiple episodes since the late 60s, it has gotta go somewhere. No matter what someone intends or feels about it. Things and stuff conveniently traded in existing market exchanges can sometimes become that somewhere to go to, for a while.
Last edited by: DrawingDead on Nov 26, 2016
Suck dope, watch TV, make up stuff, be somebody on the internet.
November 26th, 2016 at 6:46:32 PM
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Dead: You made some very good points. Actually Shiller, the author of the highly regarded book "Irrational Exuberance," in attempting to explain the tech boom of the late 90s now uses a more complex calculation than p/e to consider valuations which he calls CAPE. CAPE is:
"The cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio, commonly known as CAPE,[1] Shiller P/E, or P/E 10 ratio, is a valuation measure usually applied to the US S&P 500 equity market. It is defined as price divided by the average of ten years of earnings (moving average), adjusted for inflation. As such, it is principally used to assess likely future returns from equities over timescales of 10 to 20 years, with higher than average CAPE values implying lower than average long-term annual average returns. It is not intended as an indicator of impending market crashes, although high CAPE values have been associated with such events."
I would think that because he is considering 10 years instead of one that his calculation is automatically also considering growth. Although this is surely an oversimplification of Shiller's main conclusions nonetheless I will state them as being this: He concluded that the volatility of the stock market was greater than could plausibly be explained by any rational view of the future.
I consider Shiller to be a rare and insightful voice in that he attempts to break through the noise to truly understand how and why the market moves. And he admits his inability to completely understand it. You may not agree, but I linked this article by him which I thought you might enjoy.
He admits that his calculations cannot accurately predict future movements of the market calling it an "imprecise indicator."
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/08/17/upshot/the-mystery-of-lofty-elevations.html?module=Search&mabReward=relbias%3Ar%2C%7B%222%22%3A%22RI%3A16%22%7D&abt=0002&abg=0&_r=0
"The cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio, commonly known as CAPE,[1] Shiller P/E, or P/E 10 ratio, is a valuation measure usually applied to the US S&P 500 equity market. It is defined as price divided by the average of ten years of earnings (moving average), adjusted for inflation. As such, it is principally used to assess likely future returns from equities over timescales of 10 to 20 years, with higher than average CAPE values implying lower than average long-term annual average returns. It is not intended as an indicator of impending market crashes, although high CAPE values have been associated with such events."
I would think that because he is considering 10 years instead of one that his calculation is automatically also considering growth. Although this is surely an oversimplification of Shiller's main conclusions nonetheless I will state them as being this: He concluded that the volatility of the stock market was greater than could plausibly be explained by any rational view of the future.
I consider Shiller to be a rare and insightful voice in that he attempts to break through the noise to truly understand how and why the market moves. And he admits his inability to completely understand it. You may not agree, but I linked this article by him which I thought you might enjoy.
He admits that his calculations cannot accurately predict future movements of the market calling it an "imprecise indicator."
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/08/17/upshot/the-mystery-of-lofty-elevations.html?module=Search&mabReward=relbias%3Ar%2C%7B%222%22%3A%22RI%3A16%22%7D&abt=0002&abg=0&_r=0
Please don't feed the trolls
November 26th, 2016 at 7:16:47 PM
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Quote: MrVMore money entering the market than leaving: good.
More money leaving the market than entering: bad.
Truth
November 26th, 2016 at 7:25:00 PM
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Quote: lilredroosterQuote: MaxPenYou can thank the 80's and the creation of the mutual fund. A lot of people, that are going to want to collect, were sold a pipe dream. Unfortunately, they will be wishing to be churned in a bad wipeout in the Bonzai Pipeline instead of what is coming. Looking like 2 years tops.
The right man for the job has been put in place. The longer we continue lying to ourselves the more devastating the impact.
Tens of thousands of people have already collected and are enjoying a comfortable retirement. While you were knocking yourself out looking for great conditions at a blackjack table the smart ones bought quality funds or index funds and did almost nothing for decades. It's called buy and hold. Dismiss the stock market as a pipe dream? It began trading in 1792. On January 2, 1900 the Dow closed at 68.13. A couple of World Wars, a couple of atomic bombs and several trillion transactions later and yesterday the Dow closed at 19,152.14. Some, I would guess you, call the stock market gambling. If you like very conservative investments consider this. The highest CD rate I could find right now is 1.6%. The average annual rate of inflation is 3.22%. If you make a very conservative investment such as this, or a Treasury note you didn't gamble. You just about guaranteed yourself a loss. You are just one of tens of thousands of people who have since 1792 predicted a total wipeout of the stock market. Good luck avoiding 6/5 tables, CSMs, ASMs, facial recognition, license plate recognition, sweaty pit bosses and foaming at the mouth casino security personnel. You'll need it.
You obviously know nothing about me. No need to brag, so I won't. Are you one of those sufferers of TARD(Trump Acceptance Resistance Disorder) trying to attack me over a simple statement? My statement has nothing to do with my personal participation in the markets.
Where did I predict a TOTAL wipeout?
Why do you feel the need to insult blackjack players?
November 26th, 2016 at 8:17:48 PM
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Sounds ripe for shorts and puts.Quote: steeldcoI say that we're looking at a large decline in the next 7 months. My guess is somewhere around 35%, and over the next several years I think we would lose, at its trough, 70%.
November 26th, 2016 at 9:25:38 PM
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I haven't read him, but I think I may like where he might be going from the quoted excerpt, and the tone of careful humility when trying to model this kind of thing. The linked article will have to take a nap on my 'do later' list, until the NYT lets me back in to visit again after the beginning of a new month.Quote: lilredrooster...<SNIP>...
I consider Shiller to be a rare and insightful voice in that he attempts to break through the noise to truly understand how and why the market moves. And he admits his inability to completely understand it. You may not agree, but I linked this article by him which I thought you might enjoy.
He admits that his calculations cannot accurately predict future movements of the market calling it an "imprecise indicator."
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/08/17/upshot/the-mystery-of-lofty-elevations.html?module=Search&mabReward=relbias%3Ar%2C%7B%222%22%3A%22RI%3A16%22%7D&abt=0002&abg=0&_r=0
Quote: NYT, Dept. of Chronic Deadbeat HarassmentYou have reached the monthly limit of... being a cheapskate freeloading weasel without paying us.
Suck dope, watch TV, make up stuff, be somebody on the internet.
November 27th, 2016 at 12:30:21 AM
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Quote: steeldco
All of the above is subject to change based upon Trump's whims.
You know what's funny, no one would really think it odd if Trump uttered something that caused the market to fall or rise. Because he's been prone to the odd comment and pronouncement more than once.
'Course now if he said the right or wrong thing, people with advanced knowledge could probably make some serious money. Not that he would ever participate in such a thing because he's an honest guy.
There's no secret. Just know what you're talking about before you open your mouth.
November 27th, 2016 at 3:14:19 AM
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Quote: SOOPOOI
Good luck with crediting the Trump election..... I am sure Obama and the Dems are still taking the credit for any gains until Jan 20.
What I wrote has nothing to do with Trump or his win. I only used it as a frame of reference pointing out that the market has gone straight up since he won. Another poster towards the end suggested that what I wrote was due to my unhappiness with Trump. I don't really know if his win had anything to do with the market going up or not and I couldn't care less. My point was about the unpredictably of the market and hopelessness of trying to glean good advice from CNBC talking heads and others like them.
Last edited by: lilredrooster on Nov 27, 2016
Please don't feed the trolls
November 27th, 2016 at 6:10:11 AM
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Quote: steeldcoover the next several years I think we would lose, at its trough, 70%
Steeldco such a pessimist? what gives?
that would put the S&P at about 660. Well, it was down to about 680 in 2009. The thing is, 2009 should be viewed as a very good year for stocks as it ended at about 1145. People forget that, and it made a lot of money for me as I was buying, and never sold at any point.
That was acting in the face of sheer terror on the way down ... I would be less scared this time. I'd say "bring it" except there is no guarantee the doldrums wouldn't persist.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
November 27th, 2016 at 6:46:16 AM
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Quote: odiousgambit
that would put the S&P at about 660. Well, it was down to about 680 in 2009. The thing is, 2009 should be viewed as a very good year for stocks as it ended at about 1145. People forget that, and it made a lot of money for me as I was buying, and never sold at any point.
That was acting in the face of sheer terror on the way down ... I would be less scared this time. I'd say "bring it" except there is no guarantee the doldrums wouldn't persist.
I made a bad mistake selling out during the tech/dotcom crash of the early 00s. I would have way more now if I'd held on. I naively thought I could avoid the disaster and get back in at the right time. I learned from my bad mistake and didn't blink during the 2008 crash. Now, I'm like you. I'm committed to buy and hold no matter what happens. I know I can't time the market.
Please don't feed the trolls
November 27th, 2016 at 9:27:11 AM
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Quote: odiousgambitSteeldco such a pessimist? what gives?
that would put the S&P at about 660. Well, it was down to about 680 in 2009. The thing is, 2009 should be viewed as a very good year for stocks as it ended at about 1145. People forget that, and it made a lot of money for me as I was buying, and never sold at any point.
That was acting in the face of sheer terror on the way down ... I would be less scared this time. I'd say "bring it" except there is no guarantee the doldrums wouldn't persist.
The pessimism is due to a potential confluence of just bad economic crap. A little optimism has crept in with Trump backing off a fair amount of bad campaign promises.
Let's start with Brexit. I believe, if they go thru with it, it cripples the Euro. Crippling the Euro would mean less of our product being exported to Europe (they won't be able to afford it). It addition it opens the door for the Chinese currency to become the secondary choice globally (bound to happen at some point anyway).
Backing out of previously agreed to trade agreements would be monumentally bad. All you have to do is look at the economic history of countries that moved toward protectionism, thinking that they would save their jobs. High unemployment and high costs are all to be had by doing it. We will be exporting less to Europe because of a weak Euro, and even less to regions elsewhere when he is done with starting trade wars. Factor in much higher costs for our products and our exporting will fall precipitously.
The tax cuts are an idea I support but not at this time. You do it when you have stabilized the country's debt. Doing it now will just lengthen the coming depression should all of these things happen.
I do not believe that the market has ever done well when a single party controlled the White House, Senate, and House of Representatives.
The optimistic part is that I am more often wrong, than right, on macro calls. Also, as previously stated, Trump is backing off of a lot of items. But there's a downside to that too. There's a large chunk of the nation that really dislikes him, and will no matter what he does. Now, with not fulfilling the promises he made will also create a group of his supporters that will equally dislike him. Terrible civil unrest would not be out of the question.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
November 27th, 2016 at 7:03:26 PM
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technicals very strong right now.
get second you pig
November 29th, 2016 at 2:43:29 AM
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Quote: lilredroosterI believe the rise in stocks is largely based maybe not exactly on irrational exuberance but a kind of sunny optimism on the part of so many investors. Not all that unlike the dice players on this site who claim they will win by finding hot shooters.
Here you go. Just posted by crapsgenius in the newest blog on the site:
"Be smart, play with winners and always win ... always go out ahead."Please don't feed the trolls
November 29th, 2016 at 4:44:23 AM
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Quote: steeldcoLet's start with Brexit. I believe, if they go thru with it, it cripples the Euro. Crippling the Euro would mean less of our product being exported to Europe (they won't be able to afford it). It addition it opens the door for the Chinese currency to become the secondary choice globally (bound to happen at some point anyway).
Between 1932 and 1937, the Dow rose 372%.
One of the greatest bull markets in history occurred during the Great Depression.
As bad as things were here, the European economy was worse, and European capital fled to the safer U.S. markets.
We're seeing that same effect today where uncertainty is causing capital flight from Europe, Japan, the Middle East and China into the US banks, equities markets and real estate.
If the Euro depreciates further, we will see even more investment here.
As for the renminbi becoming the secondary choice currency, Chinese debt is 250% higher than their GDP, and it is increasing at a faster pace than the debt of the US, Europe and Japan combined.
November 29th, 2016 at 5:13:53 AM
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Rather depends on how you define debt? Yes? GOVERNMENT debt in China is around 50% of GDP. GOVERNMENT debt in the US is just over 100% of GDP.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
November 29th, 2016 at 5:23:45 AM
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Quote: TankoBetween 1932 and 1937, the Dow rose 372%.
One of the greatest bull markets in history occurred during the Great Depression.
It just depends on whether you want to focus on that, or on the infamous crash.
Perhaps a greater lesson is that if you followed best advice in those days too, you would not have been hurt. You would have dollar-cost-averaged your way to the '29 crash and, when it occurred, not sold in a panic, but instead went bargain hunting in a dollar-cost-average way too*. You'd be able to do that because, too, you wouldn't have put all your resources in the stock market in the first place so that, instead, you'd have had to sell just because you need the money.
Note that this does not require selling in '29 before the crash and then buying again in '32. Of course if you had, well, you'd be wealthy just from writing books LOL.
However, also to note, any normal human being who is not some emotionless cardboard cut-out would find the crash terrifying and there would be few who would not make some kind of mistake along the way.
*along with other things, such as diversification, attention to P/E conditions, avoiding excessively risky positions, etc
Last edited by: odiousgambit on Nov 29, 2016
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
November 29th, 2016 at 11:13:33 AM
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Quote: steeldcoRather depends on how you define debt? Yes? GOVERNMENT debt in China is around 50% of GDP. GOVERNMENT debt in the US is just over 100% of GDP.
No way that you can get accurate economic figures from the Chinese government. They intimidate Chinese journalists so that they do not write negative stories about their economy or even about big companies. If a foreign journalist writes something they don't like about their economy or their Government while in China, they may be asked to leave or not have their visa renewed or have government thugs following them around. Getting an accurate picture of the Chinese economy is all but impossible.
Please don't feed the trolls
November 29th, 2016 at 11:22:19 AM
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Quote: lilredroosterNo way that you can get accurate economic figures from the Chinese government. They intimidate Chinese journalists so that they do not write negative stories about their economy or even about big companies. If a foreign journalist writes something they don't like about their economy or their Government while in China, they may be asked to leave or not have their visa renewed or have government thugs following them around. Getting an accurate picture of the Chinese economy is all but impossible.
So you would rather make up your own numbers? Sheesshhh............Ok. I'm done on this.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
November 29th, 2016 at 11:25:41 AM
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Quote: steeldcoSo you would rather make up your own numbers? Sheesshhh............Ok. I'm done on this.
I didn't make up my own numbers or say anything about it being good to make up numbers. I simply stated a fact.
Please don't feed the trolls
August 19th, 2017 at 2:23:34 AM
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there is a very unusual situation with the u.s. economy now that may be having a great impact on the market. inflation is very low despite improving economic benchmarks. i don't ever remember this happening before. i think it may be because of the ability of consumers to compare prices so easily now on the web.
Please don't feed the trolls
August 19th, 2017 at 2:34:24 AM
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Wages are low. Until wages pickup, the economy will putter along.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
August 19th, 2017 at 11:28:53 AM
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http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-gdp-accelerates-to-26-in-second-quarter-2017-07-28
https://www.frbatlanta.org/-/media/documents/cqer/researchcq/gdpnow/RealGDPTrackingSlides.pdf
I'm not going to give Trump all the credit, but looking better than the Obama years. But it always is when business believe the President isn't in their way. Hell they may think Trump is an idiot but if he stays out of their way, they know how to grow the economy. Far different than a POS who ran the country as a victim looking to punish business for 8 years. In spite of him, they made money, but instead of reinvesting it, they kept it in cash.
Obama's legacy alone is enough reason to never elect a Dem President again. Yea they may not be as bad as him, but why risk it?
https://www.frbatlanta.org/-/media/documents/cqer/researchcq/gdpnow/RealGDPTrackingSlides.pdf
I'm not going to give Trump all the credit, but looking better than the Obama years. But it always is when business believe the President isn't in their way. Hell they may think Trump is an idiot but if he stays out of their way, they know how to grow the economy. Far different than a POS who ran the country as a victim looking to punish business for 8 years. In spite of him, they made money, but instead of reinvesting it, they kept it in cash.
Obama's legacy alone is enough reason to never elect a Dem President again. Yea they may not be as bad as him, but why risk it?
August 19th, 2017 at 12:03:03 PM
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If you look at a chart of the stock market, it's been an almost a straight line since March of 2009. If you want to give Trump credit for what it's done for the last six months, you have to give credit to Obama the credit for the previous seven years, but we know you won't.
Now that we have a supposedly pro business leader, how's your business doing?
I'm guessing you didn't bother reading the first link you posted. Or you didn't understand it, as it pretty much undercuts what you wrote.
Now that we have a supposedly pro business leader, how's your business doing?
I'm guessing you didn't bother reading the first link you posted. Or you didn't understand it, as it pretty much undercuts what you wrote.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
August 19th, 2017 at 12:28:18 PM
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Quote: billryanIf you look at a chart of the stock market, it's been an almost a straight line since March of 2009. If you want to give Trump credit for what it's done for the last six months, you have to give credit to Obama the credit for the previous seven years, but we know you won't.
Now that we have a supposedly pro business leader, how's your business doing?
I'm guessing you didn't bother reading the first link you posted. Or you didn't understand it, as it pretty much undercuts what you wrote.
My business is doing great, record year. I would be more than happy to show you the numbers in private and even accept any advice of how to cut my taxes. Like you and most other Americans, I hate paying so much but it comes with the territory.
Thanks for again saying I don't understand what I wrote, all of the numbers and projections are above Obama's years on GDP. Yes, the Food Stamp President does get some credit for the market rising during his term, but again so much of the money made was not reinvested by companies but kept in cash reserve. We are seeing more reinvestment now as they believe Trump will stay out of their way. Even if you think he is an idiot, which you obviously do, you have to admit business leaders hold him in higher regard when it comes to what is best for their companies. And in the end, that is what they are hired to do and what they owe their stockholders.
August 19th, 2017 at 12:35:50 PM
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The CEOs who are all quitting his council's? Even Carl Ichan bailed on him.
If you want to cut taxes, ask around and hire the best tax accountant you can find. Like advertising, good tax preparation doesn't cost, it pays.
If you want to cut taxes, ask around and hire the best tax accountant you can find. Like advertising, good tax preparation doesn't cost, it pays.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
August 19th, 2017 at 12:48:18 PM
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I feel safer than ever and everyone I know seems to be doing better all around(especially financially) since Trump.Quote: BozMy business is doing great, record year.
I may be a bit selfish, but when it comes down to it, that's all I really care about.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
August 19th, 2017 at 1:04:32 PM
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Quote: billryanThe CEOs who are all quitting his council's? Even Carl Ichan bailed on him.
If you want to cut taxes, ask around and hire the best tax accountant you can find. Like advertising, good tax preparation doesn't cost, it pays.
Because they understand what they need to do to avoid the threats from the crazy Alt Left. A vocal minority can hurt your business quickly, you know that even if most of the country doesn't agree with them. That has nothing to do with how they run their business. The crazies of the Alt Left shut down a Free Speech rally in Boston today because they disagreed with the speakers. Strange times on the far Alt Left.
Most everyone agrees Trump has become toxic because of what he has said and how he has played right into the media's hands. Of course any CEO has to get far away from him, even if they love his governing style when it comes to business.
And I have a great accountant who does the best possible job. But I just thought you may have a few more tricks up your sleeve on how to get some discounts or benefits that even the best accountants don't use. I'm never too proud to save money.
August 19th, 2017 at 1:17:36 PM
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That's funny, I thought the free speech guys quit when they looked around, saw fifty people and no one had anything to say.
Never thought I'd see the day when standing up to Nazis and White Supremacist would get one labeled as crazy. Nor the day when a US President would think that there are many fine people in such groups.
I'm a bit confused though. First you say CEOs are leaving him because they need to avoid the small minority Alt Left( your new favorite word, it seems) but then you say Trump is toxic. You do see how the two don't exactly mesh, no?
Never thought I'd see the day when standing up to Nazis and White Supremacist would get one labeled as crazy. Nor the day when a US President would think that there are many fine people in such groups.
I'm a bit confused though. First you say CEOs are leaving him because they need to avoid the small minority Alt Left( your new favorite word, it seems) but then you say Trump is toxic. You do see how the two don't exactly mesh, no?
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
August 19th, 2017 at 1:20:58 PM
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Quote: AxelWolfI feel safer than ever and everyone I know seems to be doing better all around(especially financially) since Trump.
I may be a bit selfish, but when it comes down to it, that's all I really care about.
You have a President talking about nuclear war and you feel safer than ever? Out of curiosity, how are you doing better financially? Have your taxes gone down?
Trump ban 6-5 BJ? Put more cops on the street?
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
August 19th, 2017 at 1:43:42 PM
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Quote: BozI'm not going to give Trump all the credit, but looking better than the Obama years.
really? are you sure about that?
here's the movement of s&p 500 including dividends during the Obama years:
2009 - +26.46%
2010 - +15.06%
2011 - +2.11%
2012 - +16.00%
2013 - +32.39%
2014 - +13.69%
2015 - +1.38%
2016 - +11.96%
average yearly gain under Obama - 15%
average yearly gain throughout history - about 9%
Please don't feed the trolls
August 19th, 2017 at 1:53:48 PM
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2013 was the year after he got elected. When there was no doubt he would be around four more years and it gained 32%.
Think about it.
Think about it.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
August 19th, 2017 at 1:56:36 PM
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Quote: AxelWolfI seems to be doing better all around(especially financially)
I may be a BIT selfish, but when it comes down to it, that's all I really care about.
"bit" wasn't quite the right choice of words
Please don't feed the trolls
August 19th, 2017 at 1:59:50 PM
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Quote: billryanThat's funny, I thought the free speech guys quit when they looked around, saw fifty people and no one had anything to say.
Never thought I'd see the day when standing up to Nazis and White Supremacist would get one labeled as crazy. Nor the day when a US President would think that there are many fine people in such groups.
I'm a bit confused though. First you say CEOs are leaving him because they need to avoid the small minority Alt Left( your new favorite word, it seems) but then you say Trump is toxic. You do see how the two don't exactly mesh, no?
Not sure what you don't get. CEO's are risking boycotts and protests by the freaks on the Alt Left by sticking with Trump. What part of today's sad environment don't you get. Trump is toxic because a few say he is . That is all it takes anymore. For some reason everyone is afraid to say they are with Trump out of fear.And the intolerant on the left have made it that way.
So to say you are not sure why they have to abandon him is not believable. But it doesn't mean they don't agree with his business plans.
Love the term Alt Left. It allows one to separate these crazies from average hard working Democrats who are sick at what they see from these people who don't represent them or their views. And believe it or not, most Republicans don't agree with the White Supremacists who support Trump. But I'm sure that's hard for some to understand.
August 19th, 2017 at 2:42:20 PM
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I didn't say that is the ONLY thing. I didn't say I don't ever care or give a sh*t about anything else. But, caring how my family, friends( the people around me) and myself are doing is my number one priority. I can only hope that everyone is selfish when it comes to caring about how their friends and family are doing.Quote: lilredrooster"bit" wasn't quite the right choice of words
What do you care about more than your friends, family and yourself?
People claim they care about this, that or the other thing. That's all well and good but what are they really doing about it? I seriously doubt bitching/discussing/ complaining about it here all day long is accomplishing anything.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
