JoelDeze
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August 9th, 2016 at 9:31:45 AM permalink
Odds on Tim Tebow making it in MLB?

Tebow trying to make it into the big leagues

I think it may be harder than playing football.
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billryan
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August 9th, 2016 at 10:17:34 AM permalink
After his rather childish decision that he was only a QB cost him his NFL career, I doubt he'll be willing to toil in the minor leagues for a few years.
I've nothing against him, but he's turning into a bit of a joke. What's after this, a stint in the WWE?
Not there is anything wrong with that.
I'd wish him luck, but I honestly don't care. He should go into Youth Ministry. I think he'd excel at that.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
Rigondeaux
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August 9th, 2016 at 10:34:02 AM permalink
Quote: billryan

After his rather childish decision that he was only a QB cost him his NFL career, I doubt he'll be willing to toil in the minor leagues for a few years.
I've nothing against him, but he's turning into a bit of a joke. What's after this, a stint in the WWE?
Not there is anything wrong with that.
I'd wish him luck, but I honestly don't care. He should go into Youth Ministry. I think he'd excel at that.



He probably makes a mint giving talks and doing personal appearances. Almost anything that keeps his name in the news should prolong that.
DrawingDead
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August 9th, 2016 at 10:25:00 PM permalink
So somebody help me out, since it seems the electro-infotainment world persistently requires that I pretend to have an opinion on him or it or whatever. Now I'm ready to surrender, and fake one. Or I might like to just borrow a spare one that's laying around handy. What is this Tebow entity supposedly famous for? About once or twice a year for several years I hear this name (in spite of my best efforts not to) in some context that vaguely insinuates that I'm just naturally supposed to know who he is and does or did. That's if I'm assuming it is supposed to be about doing something, rather than simply famous for being famous, like a Paris Hilton thing. It isn't a Paris Hilton thing, is it? I gather he played football somewhere at some point, which you can tell I pay about as much attention to as one might to the background mumbling of a "TwoFeathers." Did he DO something that's special to those who pay attention to football? From the link in the OP I guess it may have been done in Denver, if something was in fact done. Was it something that required significant athletic talent? And extremely persistent dedication?

Among the most promising young athletes seeking baseball careers, for the 0.05% of them persuing that life who are talented enough to be offered the opportunity to try in the minors, It can generally be expected to take three to five years of player development in the minor leagues for the minority who get to the major leagues. Three years is really fast for someone who is super good and more than five happens a lot. This involves eventually graduating from the Single-A or Rookie/Instructional League level with the Batavia Muckdogs or the Dayton Dragons or the Fort Wayne TinCaps or the Missoula Osprey or the Modesto Nuts. Then, if he works at it very hard and does really well there, maybe another year or so of improving his baseball-specific skills in AA after getting called up to somewhere like the Erie SeaWolves or the Pensacola Blue Wahoos. For a chance of making it in another year or two all the way up to the fabulous Lehigh Valley IronPigs or the Albuquerque Isotopes or the Omaha Storm Chasers in AAA ball, with a kinda sorta realistic chance of later eventually refining his baseball skill to the point of being one of the minority of that group finally "making" the big show, which is defined as having a single at-bat or pitch thrown with a MLB team in a regular season game (and not necessarily being good enough at it to ever stay there past a week from Tuesday when someone's broken thumb is good enough to come off the disabled list).

This fellow is accustomed to being famous and feeling important in some way? He may not be down for all that. I'll take the 'under' on what level or how long.
Last edited by: DrawingDead on Aug 9, 2016
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billryan
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August 9th, 2016 at 11:28:45 PM permalink
I'm sure he'll put some fannies in the seats wherever he plays. His best bet would be signing with one of the independent leagues, like the Atlantic League. This way, if he is successful he can sign with any MLB club rather than sign with one now an d be stuck in only their system.
Hell, If I were 28 and could afford to work for nothing for a few months, I'd take a crack.
Better than having a real job.
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sabre
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August 10th, 2016 at 12:18:29 AM permalink
Quote: DrawingDead

Did he DO something that's special to those who pay attention to football?



Well, he won the Heisman Trophy. I suspect you don't know what that is, and I'm not really interested in educating you.

Your post was strange and annoying.
DrawingDead
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August 10th, 2016 at 2:08:43 AM permalink
Quote: sabre

Quote: DrawingDead

Did he DO something that's special to those who pay attention to football?



Well, he won the Heisman Trophy. I suspect you don't know what that is, and I'm not really interested in educating you.

Your post was strange and annoying.

Yes, I'm aware of what that is, and why he might be followed more after his football days are done than others would be because of it, so thanks for the information in spite of your annoyance that you really wanted to let me know about.

I'm still not sure exactly why anytime I hear him mentioned there seems to me to be some implied expectation in the tone of the sports report snippets that the audience would feel strongly for or against him in some way, but maybe that's just something I've mistakenly read into it. After all, I can be strange at times.
Last edited by: DrawingDead on Aug 10, 2016
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Rigondeaux
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August 10th, 2016 at 2:47:40 AM permalink
Quote: DrawingDead

Quote: sabre

Quote: DrawingDead

Did he DO something that's special to those who pay attention to football?



Well, he won the Heisman Trophy. I suspect you don't know what that is, and I'm not really interested in educating you.

Your post was strange and annoying.

Yes, I'm aware of what that is, and why he might be followed more after his football days are done than others would be because of it, so thanks for the information in spite of your annoyance that you really wanted to let me know about.

I'm still not sure exactly why anytime I hear him mentioned there seems to me to be some implied expectation in the tone of the sports report snippets that the audience would feel strongly for or against him in some way, but maybe that's just something I've mistakenly read into it. After all, I can be strange at times.



It's because he is very religious and somewhat vocal about it. He's even a virgin. (Gay). So, whichever side of the culture war you are on is supposed to determine what you think of him.
DrawingDead
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August 10th, 2016 at 3:00:22 AM permalink
Quote: Rigondeaux

Quote: DrawingDead

Quote: sabre

Quote: DrawingDead

Did he DO something that's special to those who pay attention to football?



Well, he won the Heisman Trophy. I suspect you don't know what that is, and I'm not really interested in educating you.

Your post was strange and annoying.

Yes, I'm aware of what that is, and why he might be followed more after his football days are done than others would be because of it, so thanks for the information in spite of your annoyance that you really wanted to let me know about.

I'm still not sure exactly why anytime I hear him mentioned there seems to me to be some implied expectation in the tone of the sports report snippets that the audience would feel strongly for or against him in some way, but maybe that's just something I've mistakenly read into it. After all, I can be strange at times.



It's because he is very religious and somewhat vocal about it. He's even a virgin. (Gay). So, whichever side of the culture war you are on is supposed to determine what you think of him.

Ah, that explains a lot. A lot that everyone on the continent but me was apparently supposed to already know. Must've been napping under my bowl game rock the week of that press conference. With that information, I still don't find myself wanting to enlist in any kind of rabid "for" or "against" club about him as an individual, but at least I'm a little less likely to put my foot in it out of ignorance on what "it" was. Thanks.

EDIT to add: An aside for the benefit of anyone who follows other sports but not this one: Baseball is really hard. It may not look hard. It doesn't necessarily take exceptional size or the exactly the same kind of obvious strength as some other professional sports. But it takes a whole lot of subtle skills that involve an enormous amount of repetitive work to eventually do well enough to get paid for it. Michael Jordan achieved a .202 batting average with the AA minor league Birmingham Barons. And under the circumstances of doing it late after exclusively doing something else, that really does amount to a real big impressive accomplishment to me. But it wouldn't get you close to a promotion to the Chicago White Sox if you are not Michael Jordan.
Last edited by: DrawingDead on Aug 10, 2016
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Joeman
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August 10th, 2016 at 5:16:18 AM permalink
Quote: DrawingDead

Michael Jordan achieved a .202 batting average with the AA minor league Birmingham Barons. And under the circumstances of doing it late after exclusively doing something else, that really does amount to a real big impressive accomplishment to me. But it wouldn't get you close to a promotion to the Chicago White Sox if you are not Michael Jordan.

I was going to say I expect Tebow to do about as well as MJ. If he signs with the Barons (or Shuckers, Biscuits, Lookouts, etc.), I might go out to see him play when his team comes to town. I expect those games would be sellouts.

BTW, DD, he did also win 2 National Championships (one as starting QB). But you already knew that! ;)
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DrawingDead
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August 10th, 2016 at 7:23:56 AM permalink
Quote: Joeman

...<SNIP>...

BTW, DD, he did also win 2 National Championships (one as starting QB). But you already knew that! ;)

Er, ya sure, right, of course I did. And I'm really Bo Jackson. Speaking of which, how might football people say they'd compare in general athletic ability, like the ability to potentially excel playing multiple positions on a football field? I'm thinking that could be a small clue to whether he might have the kind of raw tools that could be translated, if worked at enough to refine them for something so completely different.

I enjoy minor league ball and appreciate the scuffling & striving involved in it whether it is with or without "name" prospects. And if there's a promotional aspect involved, within reasonable bounds so I'm not being totally conned by an insulting stunt that pretends to be something else, then I'm nobody to be sneering at that too much either. I have one of those cheesey player bobblehead promotional giveaway things (Matt Holiday) that came with my ticket a few weeks ago in Missouri staring down at me from my filing cabinet right now. (He's kinda creepy up there; anybody want a small shakey-head Matt Holiday?)

But going from a Heisman & championships & something that sounds like it must've amounted to Biggest Dude On Campus Ever in front of roaring masses in a televised spectacle once a week down to starting over taking constant scruffy team bus rides from Biloxi to Montgomery to Chattanooga to Jacksonville to Mobile and round again week after week after week could require a big deflating emotional adjustment, no?
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standbymyman
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August 10th, 2016 at 8:29:23 AM permalink
200% at least
beachbumbabs
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August 10th, 2016 at 12:14:02 PM permalink
I would join you on the under, DD. I don't think any team will put up with his God Squad arrogance long enough to develop him, let alone advance him. I don't even think he's out of football for lack of physical skills. It's
the head that's out of whack. Not a team player unless your name is Jesus.

I could be wrong. But he was a PITA at Florida. I doubt he's more fun to be around now.
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Joeman
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August 10th, 2016 at 12:42:47 PM permalink
Quote: beachbumbabs

I would join you on the under, DD. I don't think any team will put up with his God Squad arrogance long enough to develop him, let alone advance him. I don't even think he's out of football for lack of physical skills. It's
the head that's out of whack. Not a team player unless your name is Jesus.

I could be wrong. But he was a PITA at Florida. I doubt he's more fun to be around now.

I think you have it all wrong Babs. Tebow's intangibles are an asset, not a detriment. Case in point, look at the 2011 Broncos -- he took over as starter for the 1-4 team, and not only led them to the playoffs, but won their first playoff game! Do you think this was because of Tebow's passing ability? Have you seen him throw?

He was a PITA at UF? Maybe to opposing defenses. By all accounts, coaches and teammates loved him. Hell, they even made a permanent plaque of his "promise" and hung it in the stadium.

NFL teams don't want him because 1)Have you seen him throw? and 2)The inevitable media circus that will come with his signing.

However, I will agree with you that I think his chances of making an MLB roster are very slim. Like I said above, I'm guessing at best, he will hit near the Mendoza Line at AA and after some time, move on to the next thing.
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AcesAndEights
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August 10th, 2016 at 9:10:11 PM permalink
Quote: billryan

I'm sure he'll put some fannies in the seats wherever he plays. His best bet would be signing with one of the independent leagues, like the Atlantic League. This way, if he is successful he can sign with any MLB club rather than sign with one now an d be stuck in only their system.
Hell, If I were 28 and could afford to work for nothing for a few months, I'd take a crack.
Better than having a real job.


He already got an offer from an independent league team.

I agree with you that he would put butts in seats. In that respect it would be a decent publicity move for a major league team to give a minor league contract.

The guy is super fast and can throw hard. I'm sure with some training he would be a good outfielder. Whether he could throw on target to home plate...well, at least the catcher isn't running a route :p

Batting against MLB prospects, obviously, is the real skill that he likely won't be able to pick up this late in life. But I don't doubt he's a very hard worker and will give it his all.

My prediction: he gets a minor league deal and plays for a couple summers but never sniffs the majors. No one has proposed any odds, but I would lay 1/20 against that he never plays in the majors (i.e. never has a plate appearance or inning in the field). To say he never makes an appearance on an MLB roster would require slightly longer odds...a team could conceivably call him up as a publicity stunt and not play him.

I'm not interested in actually betting though.
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AZDuffman
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August 11th, 2016 at 2:23:31 AM permalink
On one hand, Michael Jordan tried BB and failed within a year. OTOH Bo Jackson and Deion Sanders both crossed over. An old saying goes that if you can run fast enough they can teach you to hit and to field the ball, His QB skills might make him a possible for pitcher but then maybe not at his age. Unless he played some baseball at the college level, MLB will be tough.
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AZDuffman
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August 11th, 2016 at 2:26:01 AM permalink
Quote: beachbumbabs

I would join you on the under, DD. I don't think any team will put up with his God Squad arrogance long enough to develop him, let alone advance him. I don't even think he's out of football for lack of physical skills. It's
the head that's out of whack. Not a team player unless your name is Jesus.



Why do I have the feeling that if this post were about Michael Sam and one replaced "Jesus" with "gay" you would be threatening a suspension for "hate talk?"
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DRich
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August 11th, 2016 at 6:09:07 AM permalink
Let's get back to the original question. What are the odds he makes a MLB roster?


Odds he makes an MLB roster before the end of the 2018 season?

Odds he makes an MLB roster before the end of the 2017 season?

Odds he makes an MLB roster this season?

I think he has a chance to actually do it.
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onenickelmiracle
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August 11th, 2016 at 7:46:52 AM permalink
Quote: DRich

Let's get back to the original question. What are the odds he makes a MLB roster?


Odds he makes an MLB roster before the end of the 2018 season?

Odds he makes an MLB roster before the end of the 2017 season?

Odds he makes an MLB roster this season?

I think he has a chance to actually do it.

Not good. Baseball is a very difficult sport to play and hitting is like a miracle at the major league level. If you can hit in the majors, it is just like a gift from God. The only thing going good for him is not having to worry about money and being able to focus on his goals. He can hit some pitches, but it will depend on whatever his weaknesses are and if he can strengthen them.

This year odds, 1000-1.
2017, 200-1.
2018, 100-1.
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DRich
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August 11th, 2016 at 8:16:22 AM permalink
Quote: onenickelmiracle

Not good. Baseball is a very difficult sport to play and hitting is like a miracle at the major league level. If you can hit in the majors, it is just like a gift from God. The only thing going good for him is not having to worry about money and being able to focus on his goals. He can hit some pitches, but it will depend on whatever his weaknesses are and if he can strengthen them.

This year odds, 1000-1.
2017, 200-1.
2018, 100-1.



I don't follow baseball closely but I think your odds are way off. I think it would be much lower.
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Mosca
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August 11th, 2016 at 10:06:44 AM permalink
Major league roster, and forever: a billion or more to one.

Baseball is much more a skill game than it is an athlete's game. Better athletes than Tim Tebow have busted out of it for lack of ability to hit the ball repeatedly and with authority. The baseball world is full of AAAA guys who hit 300/360/500 in AAA, and 210/290/380 in MLB. Or who go 12-3 with a WHIP of 1.1 in AAA, and 3-16 with a WHIP of 1.54 in MLB.

You pretty much have to live baseball from the time you are about 11 until you are 23 or so, and then when you get called up you have maybe 2-3 years of growing into your prime, and most players are past their prime at 31 or so. For Tebow to think that he can skip 11 years of instruction, muscle memory, training, and his physical prime, and come back to the game at its highest levels, is stupid at best and arrogant at worst, and an insult to every player from the lowest grapefruit league backup catcher to Mike Trout. All of these guys have given their lives to the game, to varying degrees, and Tebow won't be able to carry the equipment bag for the lowest of them. Baseball is hard. Really friggin' hard.
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Mosca
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August 11th, 2016 at 10:19:19 AM permalink
About 12 years ago, I was at a youth baseball camp locally, hosted by the local AAA team, the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Red Barons, which at the time was the Phillies' top farm club. I was sitting in the dugout with my brother in law, whose son was at the camp, and we were next to Marc Bombard, the manager of the Red Barons.

Out on the field, a young guy (I don't know who) was going through a routine. He had a bat in one hand, a ball in the other, and his mitt under his arm. He took the baseball, tossed it in the air, and then whirled the bat and hit a towering popup, straight up into the sky. He then pulled his glove from under his arm, circled under the ball, and a couple seconds later, caught it. And he did this over and over, never missing the hit or the catch.

Bombard said, to anyone near him, "You see those guys out there? They are the best. The BEST of the best. that is the top one percent of the top one percent of baseball players in the world.... Maybe one, or two of them will make it in the big leagues."

Two of them made it. Chase Utley and Marlon Byrd. The rest, a lot of them had a cup of coffee, but those are the guys who made a career. Baseball is really, really hard.
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billryan
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August 11th, 2016 at 10:43:31 AM permalink
Quote: AZDuffman

On one hand, Michael Jordan tried BB and failed within a year. OTOH Bo Jackson and Deion Sanders both crossed over. An old saying goes that if you can run fast enough they can teach you to hit and to field the ball, His QB skills might make him a possible for pitcher but then maybe not at his age. Unless he played some baseball at the college level, MLB will be tough.




Thing is Jordan didn't fail. He didn't hit for average but he drove in a lot of runs and was a superior defensive player. If you look back, he left baseball because that spring training the players union was on strike/locked out and the White Sox were putting together a scab team from their minor leagues. He wanted nothing to do with it so he quit. Most scouts were saying with another year or two of seasoning, he'd be an average to slightly above average outfielder.
Chances of Tebow having a successful major league career are off the charts.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
Ayecarumba
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August 11th, 2016 at 11:36:29 AM permalink
Were there other NFL crossover's that didn't make it? Bo Jackson was big, strong and fast. He could hit the ball and play outfield. I think Tebow is very similar. I like his chances of making a MLB roster because he is a gifted athlete.
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TwoFeathersATL
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August 11th, 2016 at 1:31:01 PM permalink
Quote: Ayecarumba

Were there other NFL crossover's that didn't make it? Bo Jackson was big, strong and fast. He could hit the ball and play outfield. I think Tebow is very similar. I like his chances of making a MLB roster because he is a gifted athlete.

At the MLB level, it's a head game. Remember John Smoltz?
Don't follow baseball enuf to have an opinion on the odds. Follow business a bit, there are business incentives for clubs to, at least, consider giving him a shot.
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Mosca
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August 11th, 2016 at 1:52:21 PM permalink
Quote: Ayecarumba

Were there other NFL crossover's that didn't make it? Bo Jackson was big, strong and fast. He could hit the ball and play outfield. I think Tebow is very similar. I like his chances of making a MLB roster because he is a gifted athlete.



At the time Jackson was called "the best pure athlete in America today" by a scout. No one has ever said that about Tebow. As an athlete Tebow isn't in the same league as Bo Jackson. Tebow has not played organized baseball since his junior year in high school. Bo Jackson did not take 11 years off and then try to play. Bo Jackson was 23, and had just come from playing college baseball for Auburn.

The chance of a first round draft pick (one of the top 30 players available each year) being a successful player is about 10%. The chance of a first round pick of being a superior player is about 15%. The chance of a first round player being a bust is about 75%. (Success Rate of MLB First Round Draft Picks by Slot.) These players are the best of the best each year. None of them took off from the game from the age of 17 through the age of 28.

Tebow's decision to try professional baseball is a stunt to keep his name in the news. If it were any other 28 year old former athlete, it wouldn't have been mentioned. He has no chance at all of playing in MLB.
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DRich
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August 11th, 2016 at 1:59:44 PM permalink
Quote: TwoFeathersATL

Follow business a bit, there are business incentives for clubs to, at least, consider giving him a shot.



Damn it, quit being logical. I was really hoping someone would bet me and offer me crazy odds that he won't make it.
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Joeman
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August 11th, 2016 at 2:20:08 PM permalink
Quote: Mosca

Tebow has not played organized baseball since his junior year in high school.

Yeah, but he hit .494 that year!!! :P
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AZDuffman
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August 11th, 2016 at 3:24:05 PM permalink
Quote: billryan

Thing is Jordan didn't fail. He didn't hit for average but he drove in a lot of runs and was a superior defensive player. If you look back, he left baseball because that spring training the players union was on strike/locked out and the White Sox were putting together a scab team from their minor leagues. He wanted nothing to do with it so he quit. Most scouts were saying with another year or two of seasoning, he'd be an average to slightly above average outfielder.
Chances of Tebow having a successful major league career are off the charts.



The thing on Jordan was at the time he was the best player in the NBA bar none. To leave that and go to "slightly above average" is not easy. He had to be thinking, "OK, had my fun, do I really want this?" Tebow does not have that issue, he may stick around. Minor leagues will do all kinds of things to sell tickets.
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Mosca
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August 11th, 2016 at 4:03:54 PM permalink
Quote: Joeman

Quote: Mosca

Tebow has not played organized baseball since his junior year in high school.

Yeah, but he hit .494 that year!!! :P



So what, I hit .400 my sophomore year. It doesn't mean I had potential. I know he was all-state that year, too, but there are guys who are college all-stars who have almost no professional potential, let alone MLB potential. There's a difference between hitting .494 as a high school sophomore, and hitting .494 as a high school sophomore, taking 11 years off, and trying to pick it up again against grown men who have played the game all their lives and who have made it through the the wringer to the highest level of the game.
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billryan
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August 11th, 2016 at 4:10:35 PM permalink
Quote: AZDuffman

The thing on Jordan was at the time he was the best player in the NBA bar none. To leave that and go to "slightly above average" is not easy. He had to be thinking, "OK, had my fun, do I really want this?" Tebow does not have that issue, he may stick around. Minor leagues will do all kinds of things to sell tickets.



If he shows any skills, he can put together a team of Christian players and go barnstorming. Most major league stadiums are empty half the time, he might sell a good amount of tickets in the heartland. Toss in a Christian Rock concert after the game and you got a feel good festival.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
Mosca
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August 11th, 2016 at 4:19:36 PM permalink
When Britney Griner was dominating WCBB, I would get these kinds of discussions from people who thought she could play in the NBA. Those discussions were a lot more ludicrous, but the point is the same.

IF Tebow had concentrated on baseball, his chance of becoming a MLB player; not a star, but just making it to an MLB roster; goes like this:

5.6% of high school players make a college team. About 10.5% of college players get drafted. And about 10% of minor leaguers make it to MLB. Not necessarily as stars, or even starters, or even bench players. That 10% includes guys who get called up, sit on the bench, and get sent down three days later.

Were he to skip college, .5% of high school players get drafted by an MLB team. He would probably get drafted, but who could say whether he would land in the 25% of first rounders who make up the bulk of players who get to the bigs, or would he go in the 7th round, where the odds are immensely less favorable?

So, even without skipping 11 years, the odds would be severely against him. People just don't understand how hard the game is.
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TwoFeathersATL
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August 11th, 2016 at 5:09:41 PM permalink
Do not forget, he may have God on his side.
That has to change the odds a bit.
You can decide for yourself which direction that changes the odds.
To each his own.

I did post this in the Vegas Hookers thread, right ;-?
Youuuuuu MIGHT be a 'rascal' if.......(nevermind ;-)...2F
DrawingDead
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August 11th, 2016 at 5:49:43 PM permalink
I took the high school batting average comment as a 'tongue-in-cheek' half-kidding sort of remark.

But whatever the Tebow guy may do, this has reminded me that I'm overdue to check out the nearby 'home team' again. That'd be the fabulously welcoming Las Vegas Area 51s (NY Mets AAA farm team) who have a 4 game series starting tomorrow with the world renowned New Orleans Zephyrs (Miami Marlins AAA farm team). Tickets for the spectacular occasion will set me back the princely sum of $11 + tax, and if I go Saturday I get a free backback with that cool alien head logo on it. Or on Monday their promotion sponsored by a supermarket chain is to price hot dogs, popcorn, Cracker Jack, and pretzels all at one dollar; and that's a promotion that can put my butt in their seat. I expect I may see someone who'll eventually become a star or at least a pretty darn good player, someone else who'll manage to put together a career as a useful bench player or situational specialist type for someone, and a few dozen others giving it everything they've got that'll eventually be telling their grandkids that they actually played with 'that guy' back in the day. And I also expect that I may not have much better than a vague guesstimate of which of them will turn out to be what.

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Ayecarumba
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August 11th, 2016 at 7:43:26 PM permalink
Quote: Mosca

When Britney Griner was dominating WCBB, I would get these kinds of discussions from people who thought she could play in the NBA. Those discussions were a lot more ludicrous, but the point is the same.

IF Tebow had concentrated on baseball, his chance of becoming a MLB player; not a star, but just making it to an MLB roster; goes like this:

5.6% of high school players make a college team. About 10.5% of college players get drafted. And about 10% of minor leaguers make it to MLB. Not necessarily as stars, or even starters, or even bench players. That 10% includes guys who get called up, sit on the bench, and get sent down three days later.

Were he to skip college, .5% of high school players get drafted by an MLB team. He would probably get drafted, but who could say whether he would land in the 25% of first rounders who make up the bulk of players who get to the bigs, or would he go in the 7th round, where the odds are immensely less favorable?

So, even without skipping 11 years, the odds would be severely against him. People just don't understand how hard the game is.



Very eye opening stats... I'm guessing the number of pitching prospects who don't work out must skew the totals. Are there stats on just DH's or outfielders?
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billryan
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August 11th, 2016 at 8:26:47 PM permalink
Without opening any old wounds, didn't kewljason say he was a top ballplayer whose team went very deep into the Florida State Championship tournament. I'd imagine they are roughly the same age. I wonder if he'd have any insight into it. Some of you chat with him, no?
One of my friends from high school didn't play baseball for the school because he played soccer. After a year at the Army Prep school didn't work out, he was a walk on at a local college, where he made All American for Division 2. He spent almost ten years in the minors, and despite making several AA and AAA All Star squads, he never even got a September call up.The best guy from my HS team was an undrafted free agent. Who lasted two years in the low minors.
It's hard.
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Mosca
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August 12th, 2016 at 4:40:25 AM permalink
Quote: Ayecarumba

Very eye opening stats... I'm guessing the number of pitching prospects who don't work out must skew the totals. Are there stats on just DH's or outfielders?



I don't know, I'm not motivated enough to separate them. But regarding pitchers, the odds are so bad that there is a popular acronym: TINSTAAPP. There is no such thing as a pitching prospect. Think Brien Taylor.
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Mosca
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August 12th, 2016 at 4:43:26 AM permalink
Quote: DrawingDead

I took the high school batting average comment as a 'tongue-in-cheek' half-kidding sort of remark.

But whatever the Tebow guy may do, this has reminded me that I'm overdue to check out the nearby 'home team' again. That'd be the fabulously welcoming Las Vegas Area 51s (NY Mets AAA farm team) who have a 4 game series starting tomorrow with the world renowned New Orleans Zephyrs (Miami Marlins AAA farm team). Tickets for the spectacular occasion will set me back the princely sum of $11 + tax, and if I go Saturday I get a free backback with that cool alien head logo on it. Or on Monday their promotion sponsored by a supermarket chain is to price hot dogs, popcorn, Cracker Jack, and pretzels all at one dollar; and that's a promotion that can put my butt in their seat. I expect I may see someone who'll eventually become a star or at least a pretty darn good player, someone else who'll manage to put together a career as a useful bench player or situational specialist type for someone, and a few dozen others giving it everything they've got that'll eventually be telling their grandkids that they actually played with 'that guy' back in the day. And I also expect that I may not have much better than a vague guesstimate of which of them will turn out to be what.



I did too, but people latch onto strange stuff as evidence. I hit .830 in my last year of Little League. I was also 6 feet tall when I was 12.

We're thinking of going to a game on Sunday, it depends on the weather, chance of thunderstorms.
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Joeman
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August 12th, 2016 at 5:54:11 AM permalink
Quote: DrawingDead

I took the high school batting average comment as a 'tongue-in-cheek' half-kidding sort of remark.

Yes, it was. Heck, I hit .520 in my last year of Little League (actually YMCA league). I didn't even make my Junior High team the next year.

BTW, with a .266 slugging pct and a .952 fielding average in AA, I'm not sure if I would call MJ "better than average." He may have had potential, but we will never know.

Quote:

On Monday their promotion sponsored by a supermarket chain is to price hot dogs, popcorn, Cracker Jack, and pretzels all at one dollar; and that's a promotion that can put my butt in their seat.

Gotta love those Minor League promotions. The Suns have $1 beers on Thursdays. That got me out to see Giancarlo Stanton (he was "Mike Stanton" back then) a few years back. He was considerate enough to hit a home run for me that game.

Of the more memorable promotions (that I did not go to) was "Wrestling Night," where they set up a ring at home plate after the game and had aging WWF (not WWE!) stars battle it out. Also memorable (or perhaps infamous) was "Tonya Harding Bat Night," where they gave away mini-bats, and Tonya Harding was there to sign them, if you wanted. As Nancy Kerrigan would say, Whyyyyyyyyyyy?
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Mosca
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August 12th, 2016 at 6:31:57 AM permalink
Quote: Ayecarumba

Very eye opening stats... I'm guessing the number of pitching prospects who don't work out must skew the totals. Are there stats on just DH's or outfielders?



"Eye opening": the average MLB player has 20/12 vision. Most charts only go to 20/15. The human limit is 20/8.

It's not just athleticism. It's also about freakish gifts in other areas.
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DRich
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August 12th, 2016 at 6:58:01 AM permalink
This board is suppossedly full of gamblers.

Someone give me odds that Tebow will make a major league roster this year? I am sure the odds against him are incredible, but I have a $20 bill saying he will to whomever gives me the best odds.

Probably an easy $20 for the person that accepts it and you will be able to call me a moron for the rest of our lives.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
TwoFeathersATL
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August 12th, 2016 at 7:16:52 AM permalink
Quote: DRich

This board is suppossedly full of gamblers.

Someone give me odds that Tebow will make a major league roster this year? I am sure the odds against him are incredible, but I have a $20 bill saying he will to whomever gives me the best odds.

Probably an easy $20 for the person that accepts it and you will be able to call me a moron for the rest of our lives.

Would one get to post "DRich is a moron" here daily for the rest our lives? Or just until the joke got stale?

Did you really mean 'this year' or did you mean 'next year'?
Youuuuuu MIGHT be a 'rascal' if.......(nevermind ;-)...2F
DrawingDead
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August 12th, 2016 at 7:17:46 AM permalink
Quote: Joeman

..."Tonya Harding Bat Night," where they gave away mini-bats, and...

Arrrgh. I know where the spare mini-bats ended up. They got a one day call-up for a spot start in the big leagues. Every kid below a certain age got one of them at a Sunday afternoon game at Busch Stadium last month. I think during a series with Miami, IIRC. And while I don't think the marketing stuff for it said so, I believe all the precious energetic little tykes also got complimentary gallon jugs of Red Bull and a large brick of sugar candy with their bats. The result was not quite the infamous "Disco Demolition" at Comisky Park or the historic carnage of "Ten Cent Beer" night in Cleveland, but easily the most raucous bone-rattling 'duck-n-cover' day I ever saw at a ballpark. I trust Tanya's knee crackin' souvenirs were prolly treated with more reverence.

EDIT: For any whippersnappers who may not have heard of a couple of the most epic efforts of baseball franchise marketing folks (and arguably kinda sorta almost on-topic for the thread, depending on what you think the Tebow announcement is really about):





RE-EDIT: For some reason embedding Youtube is not working out for me. Never had that trouble before. Wonder if something has changed with that, at this site or Youtube?

Full url link to #1 ('disco sucks' demolishes Chicago): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I1CP1751wJA&feature=youtu.be
Url link to #2 ('10 cent beer' fiasco): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LzWVDyqTolI
Last edited by: DrawingDead on Aug 12, 2016
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TwoFeathersATL
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August 12th, 2016 at 7:26:06 AM permalink
I've got one of those 'mini-bats',

But I'd never let Tanya anywhere near it, not if I was sober anyway ;-)

Just 2F 'murmurings'
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DRich
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August 12th, 2016 at 7:27:03 AM permalink
Quote: TwoFeathersATL

Would one get to post "DRich is a moron" here daily for the rest our lives? Or just until the joke got stale?

Did you really mean 'this year' or did you mean 'next year'?



You may post it daily and I will ask the moderators to allow it as fact and not as a personal insult.

Yes, this year. I want the big odds and think if I said next year the odds would be much less.
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Ayecarumba
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August 12th, 2016 at 1:02:45 PM permalink
Quote: DRich

You may post it daily and I will ask the moderators to allow it as fact and not as a personal insult.

Yes, this year. I want the big odds and think if I said next year the odds would be much less.



Mosca has convinced me. I will open the bidding at 2:1 (My $40 vs. your $20). "Tim Tebow will not be on the active roster of a MLB team before 11:59 pm local Las Vegas time on December 31, 2016." Also, If I win I will have to option to post "DRich is a moron" here everyday for the rest of our lives.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
Joeman
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August 12th, 2016 at 1:52:40 PM permalink
Quote: DRich

This board is suppossedly full of gamblers.

Someone give me odds that Tebow will make a major league roster this year? I am sure the odds against him are incredible, but I have a $20 bill saying he will to whomever gives me the best odds.

Probably an easy $20 for the person that accepts it and you will be able to call me a moron for the rest of our lives.

I'll give you 5:1 (my $100 against your $20).

Also, if I win, I will have the option to post "DRich is a moron" in this thread only. Just to sweeten the pot, if you win, you may post "Joeman is a moron and I have his money" in this thread! :)
"Dealer has 'rock'... Pay 'paper!'"
Face
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August 12th, 2016 at 2:30:59 PM permalink
Quote: Ayecarumba

Mosca has convinced me. I will open the bidding at 2:1 (My $40 vs. your $20). "Tim Tebow will not be on the active roster of a MLB team before 11:59 pm local Las Vegas time on December 31, 2016." Also, If I win I will have to option to post "DRich is a moron" here everyday for the rest of our lives.



Dangerous bet. There is NO WAY he ever plays, but someone might just snag him "because reasons", which would technically put him on the roster.

I was gonna LOL at Mosca for making such a silly sport out to be some difficult task. I remember my sadist coach (best coach I ever had) would crank the pitching machine all the way up, snap off the knob, have two kids hold it because it wanted to run away it was flying so fast, used those damnable dimpled pitching machine balls, and put the f#$%ing thing in front of the dirt on the mound. Ever hit a 110mph knuckle ball from 60'? Or a 110mph curve ball that curves UP like in softball? Or a slider so nasty it starts off behind you, passes in front of you, and still misses the backstop? And we thought shagging 600' moon shots was bad ><

The ease is what killed ball for me. I hated hitting. There was no action whatsoever. Every time I got up I knew I was getting on base, knew I was stealing until I got to third, and hopefully walking in if my peers put it in play. Hated it. Get me back in the field where I could do something, where I had to try. Hitting was a complete foregone conclusion.

BUT, I saw somewhere someone posted that Tebow ain't played since HS?! Ain't no f#$%ing way that man is gonna play ball. No. Way. Unless he can pitch, he'll only be some team's pretty. Some unique trinket they can show off. The odds of him "making it", like actually playing, are simply 0.
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TwoFeathersATL
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August 12th, 2016 at 2:52:40 PM permalink
OK.
Bo don't know nuthin'.
2F knows slightly less, particularly about baseball.
Gimme a break, I grew up with the Braves as my inspiration.

Pls define 'makes a major team roster this year'.

I might up the bid to 10-1, my 200 'gainst your 20.

Just for the fun of being able to call someone, anyone, a moron here daily.

BTW, DRich has my permission to call me a moron ( or murmurer ) anytime he wants from this day forward, in writing right here, and can continue to do so for eternity. Meaning not limited by either of our deaths. If I'm dead, I prolly want care. If he posts after he's dead, well, that would be pretty special, and cause several spin-off threads ;-

<edit> I was at the winning game in 95, with another deadbeat customer on my employer's tix. My Sales Manager thought it was going to go to seven games and made me swap tix cause her customer wanted to be at game seven. Tee-hee ;-) Went to a couple of the play-off games prior when my favorite nutcase Smotlz was hitting the clock at 103-104 pitch after pitch. Lordy, that was fun! The place was-a-rockin'!
Youuuuuu MIGHT be a 'rascal' if.......(nevermind ;-)...2F
DRich
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August 12th, 2016 at 5:10:08 PM permalink
Quote: onenickelmiracle



This year odds, 1000-1.
2017, 200-1.
2018, 100-1.



I was hoping for odds similar to above. C'mon people step it up if you don't believe there is any way he can make a MLB roster as one of the 40 players they are allowed to have on the team at one time.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
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