odiousgambit
odiousgambit
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March 19th, 2015 at 3:42:39 AM permalink
Quote: AcesAndEights

News from The Fed.



God I hate links that start playing videos without clicking on anything ... that is such an a-hole move by the link-maker. But how would you have known? Why would you care? LOL

Just saying.

Quote: mdhovland

Almost everything moved higher today.



I bought into broad stock index funds just before the announcement, hey hey hey

that's the same type gamble that got me to lose my shirt on oil LOL

even a blind squirrel ... he he

Even bonds increased in value, wasn't expecting that. I will probably sell some today if the price is still around the same
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
100xOdds
100xOdds
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March 19th, 2015 at 12:03:41 PM permalink
yesterday oil spiked due to the Fed's announcement.
that probably caused short covering which led to even more higher prices.

but aftermarket, overnight, and premarket today it kept dropping.

would have sworn oil prices would go back down to pre-Fed announcement levels.
I don't see a connection between slower than expected interest rate hikes and oil.
plus the dollar is strengthening today which is bad for oil.

but oil climbed after the market opened.
go figure.

and it'll probably climb tomorrow since no one wants to be in a short position when futures expire.
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice). Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
AcesAndEights
AcesAndEights
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March 19th, 2015 at 1:38:20 PM permalink
Quote: 100xOdds

yesterday oil spiked due to the Fed's announcement.
that probably caused short covering which led to even more higher prices.

but aftermarket, overnight, and premarket today it kept dropping.

would have sworn oil prices would go back down to pre-Fed announcement levels.
I don't see a connection between slower than expected interest rate hikes and oil.
plus the dollar is strengthening today which is bad for oil.

but oil climbed after the market opened.
go figure.

and it'll probably climb tomorrow since no one wants to be in a short position when futures expire.


OMG you have to understand that day-to-day movements in the market don't have to have rational explanations, right? It's an open market with millions of people making individual decisions. Sometimes things will make sense and sometimes they won't.

You can drive yourself crazy trying to figure out intra-day trends, trying to make your millions day trading and picking individual stocks, or you can wake up and realize you are not Warren Buffet or the .0001% of people who are actually smart enough and driven enough to do that, and just buy and hold index funds like any sane person (who isn't paid to shill for mutual funds) will tell you to do. This thread makes me sad and angry.
"So drink gamble eat f***, because one day you will be dust." -ontariodealer
mdhovland
mdhovland
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April 15th, 2015 at 7:28:08 PM permalink
Odious - A quick note that West TX Intermediate Crude surpassed the $54 level by trading up to $56 today/yesterday, 04/15/2015, on the continuous May contract.

A point and figure chart shows how price has behaved over the past 2-3 months. Jan/Feb showed a shake, and several weeks later we had a shakeout - slightly lower price on reduced volume. Selling pressure was gone? And are buyers now back for real?

W. TX Intermediate May

It's a significant breakout since oil has been surpressed at $54 on three previous occasions. It may not be the new dawn. It's just positive, that's all. (For the price of oil...)

I won't forecast but will say that this is a meaningful event, potentially. $65-70 may be the price of oil sometime soon and 90 is not out of the realm of possibility.

I would not short and I have not bought long. Just an observation of an interesting development.
mdhovland
mdhovland
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June 5th, 2015 at 9:12:51 PM permalink
Oil ETF related, kind of:
KLXI and TSLA


Got an execution today at $42 for some more KLXI on an order entered 3-4 weeks ago.

Received the first position of KLXI at $45 in a 1:2 spin-off of BEAV last December which reduced the price of BEAV by 1/3. (I still hold 1/2 the original position of BEAV, bot at $28 in 2011, sold half of BEAV pre-spinoff when it was around 45 in 2013...)

Have a close trading stop now in place to sell half of KLXI at under $39 and the last half at just below $37. I judge there is support around $40. If wrong, it won't hurt bad. It has recently become weak with the oil market, however. I hope to get long-term capital gains treatment from this buy.

Again oil-related to an extent, KLXI might work out. Might not. I think it has the low 50's in it. Average cost including the spinned shares is now $42 3/4. I may hedge it with options if oil slips further. Otherwise, there's 4-5 points down for 10 points up for a R/R ratio of 2:1+ if not hedged, the minimum I require.


Also have an order in to buy TSLA at limit $232. This one is frustrating me since I want it to slip 6-8% so I can get some. Tech (and alt. energy) appears stronger than the rest of the market currently. Since my trade-order entry, TSLA has moved higher and is pissing me off. We'll see here, too, but I'm not budging on my bid.

Buying in summer can be good but I'd usually rather act later on in the year when volume and trends resume. I only have these two trades going on right now, and TSLA is the remaining order to fill.

Buyer's remorse can be a real thing but it's important to be patient and trust the work. On average, there are only 20-30 days per year that require "work" and adrenaline. Not feeling adrenaline yet. That said, these trades could fail, but with constrained losses.

BEAV is beginning to falter and give back gains, and a stop may be put in place for the remainder of that one soon depending on its price action at 60-ish. I've owned/traded this name since 1997. It's a good company and sometimes a very strong stock. But something is up with airlines, transports, utilities, interest rates and oil. I don't know which, exactly.

I owned Hewlett in the 90's and got A (Agilent) as a spin-off. That one was an outlier. Lucent spun from AT&T. Winner. It happens often enough to pay attention; look for the spin-off to outperform. I haven't acted on a spin since then until today.

**Please do not act on these commentaries because of my choices. They are mine alone. Not anyone elses.


Best,
Mark
odiousgambit
odiousgambit
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June 6th, 2015 at 4:11:03 AM permalink
market swooning in all categories again, stocks, bonds, gold... as you note, oil may be only exception.

You'd think gold would be going up, but no. This makes me think the whole thing is just going to be another V-shaped place on the chart as we go on

>I want [tsla] to slip 6-8%

I can't say I want a bear market, but I wish these swoons would go deeper to create some buying opportunities in general
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
teddys
teddys
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June 7th, 2015 at 11:07:20 AM permalink
I bought WRI at market and it slipped 16% in two days. That hurt...
"Dice, verily, are armed with goads and driving-hooks, deceiving and tormenting, causing grievous woe." -Rig Veda 10.34.4
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