kewlj
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October 19th, 2012 at 8:49:03 PM permalink
In my mind, Rasmussen is the least accurate of the pollsters. Not because Mr Rasmussen is frequently on Fox news and clearly has a preference, but because they use automatic dialing, they are prohibited by law from dialing cell phones. This means their sample while is may consist of the proper number of democrats and republicans, they are not counting younger people, who are more likely to only be reached by cell phone. So why they may get someone who identifies as democrat, they are more likely to be older democrats who are more likely to be swing voters/undecided than the more liberal strong backing Obama younger democrats.
bbvk05
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October 19th, 2012 at 8:53:16 PM permalink
Quote: rdw4potus

You're going to have to show some real actual reasons why SUSA, PPP, and Fox aren't worth a damn. They're all top-notch pollsters. They use sound and standard practices. Do you actually have any reason, other than their poll result, that leads you to feel that they should be disqualified? Feel free to be technical...I'm very familiar with the industry.




To be clear, of those polls I've only reviewed the current PPP. And as I've already said, most of the answer is in minority sampling. This is very important in a place like Ohio.

More importantly Fox uses live calls. This is has now been conclusively demonstrated to be less accurate.

Fox is fairly good on big polls generally, but their consistency on local things is pretty weak.
bbvk05
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October 19th, 2012 at 8:55:03 PM permalink
Quote: kewlj

In my mind, Rasmussen is the least accurate of the pollsters. Not because Mr Rasmussen is frequently on Fox news and clearly has a preference, but because they use automatic dialing, they are prohibited by law from dialing cell phones. This means there sample while is may consist of the proper number of democrats and republicans, they are not counting younger people, who are more likely to only be reached by cell phone. So why they may get someone who identifies as democrat, they are more likely to be older democrats who are more likely to be swing voters/undecided than the more liberal strong backing Obama younger democrats.




This is wishful thinking on your part. Rasmussen has been the most accurate of all polling firms for the last 4 elections.

You are also ignoring the biases introduced by live callers.
rdw4potus
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October 19th, 2012 at 8:57:04 PM permalink
Quote: kewlj

In my mind, Rasmussen is the least accurate of the pollsters. Not because Mr Rasmussen is frequently on Fox news and clearly has a preference, but because they use automatic dialing, they are prohibited by law from dialing cell phones. This means there sample while is may consist of the proper number of democrats and republicans, they are not counting younger people, who are more likely to only be reached by cell phone. So why they may get someone who identifies as democrat, they are more likely to be older democrats who are more likely to be swing voters/undecided than the more liberal strong backing Obama younger democrats.



They can now call cell phones in most states, and PPP is also an automated pollster. All auto-polls do still lean toward older and more traditional voters (people with land-line phones). But the real problem with Rasmussen is that they correct their polls for party identification. That is a patently incorrect way of running a poll. Party ID can shift over time on an intra-personal basis, while demographics can only change on an inter-personal basis. That's why most reputable pollsters only correct for demographics while leaving party ID unchanged in their polling samples.

Edit: I don't mean to imply that Rasmussen is not reputable. They're just not as straight forward as the others. If SUSA is MGM, PPP is Boyd, CBS/NYT is Stations, and Rasmussen is Caesar's. One of these things is not quite like the others...
"So as the clock ticked and the day passed, opportunity met preparation, and luck happened." - Maurice Clarett
rdw4potus
rdw4potus
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October 19th, 2012 at 9:00:00 PM permalink
Quote: bbvk05


...live calls. This is has now been conclusively demonstrated to be less accurate.



Cite a source. I'm pretty well read on the subject, and I have no idea what the fuck you're talking about...
"So as the clock ticked and the day passed, opportunity met preparation, and luck happened." - Maurice Clarett
bbvk05
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October 19th, 2012 at 9:15:12 PM permalink
Quote: rdw4potus

Cite a source. I'm pretty well read on the subject, and I have no idea what the fuck you're talking about...




Please Google curbstoning and the polling firm accuracy results from the last decade. Honestly if you were as well read as you let on you'd have an idea about what the fuck I am talking about.
rdw4potus
rdw4potus
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October 19th, 2012 at 9:18:23 PM permalink
Quote: bbvk05

Please Google curbstoning and the polling firm accuracy results from the last decade. Honestly if you were as well read as you let on you'd have an idea about what the fuck I am talking about.



Rasmussen is more accurate than average, PPP is less accurate than average. They're both robopolling firms. SUSA and AP/GFK are about at the median, and they both live call. How does looking at these results support your assertion that live polling has been proven to be less accurate than robopolling?
"So as the clock ticked and the day passed, opportunity met preparation, and luck happened." - Maurice Clarett
EvenBob
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October 23rd, 2012 at 7:57:41 PM permalink
Intrade is moving, just hit O 55% R 45%. A little
more and its even.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
rdw4potus
rdw4potus
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October 23rd, 2012 at 8:05:15 PM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

Intrade is moving, just hit O 55% R 45%. A little
more and its even.



Sure, but it's full of libs who don't know what they're doing. it can't be trusted. So why talk about it?
"So as the clock ticked and the day passed, opportunity met preparation, and luck happened." - Maurice Clarett
EvenBob
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October 23rd, 2012 at 8:08:26 PM permalink
Quote: rdw4potus

Sure, but it's full of libs



Not anymore, the Americans are buying Romney in droves.
Intrade Electoral College has R 261 and O 249.

Uh Oh.

The EC map has PA solid Obama. Thats just wrong. RCP
has it as a toss up and many are saying its leaning Romney.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
rdw4potus
rdw4potus
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October 23rd, 2012 at 8:23:49 PM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

Not anymore, the Americans are buying Romney in droves.
Intrade Electoral College has R 261 and O 249.

Uh Oh.

The EC map has PA solid Obama. Thats just wrong. RCP
has it as a toss up and many are saying its leaning Romney.



So now that it agrees with you, it's ok for me to trust it?
"So as the clock ticked and the day passed, opportunity met preparation, and luck happened." - Maurice Clarett
EvenBob
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October 23rd, 2012 at 8:29:01 PM permalink
Quote: rdw4potus

So now that it agrees with you, it's ok for me to trust it?



Who said I trust it? I've been mentioning it all
summer and you know it. Why would I stop
now?
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
Keyser
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October 23rd, 2012 at 8:32:37 PM permalink
I have a feeling that at about 2pm tomorrow that the price for Obama will drop to about 52.5, or so, as more people suddenly come to realize that Obama is done. It's just a hunch.
rdw4potus
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October 23rd, 2012 at 8:34:36 PM permalink
Quote: Keyser

I have a feeling that at about 2pm tomorrow that the price for Obama will drop to about 52.5, or so, as more people suddenly come to realize that Obama is done. It's just a hunch.



When is Trump's announcement? Is he doing it during trading hours, or does he at least have the sense to wait for the market to close?
"So as the clock ticked and the day passed, opportunity met preparation, and luck happened." - Maurice Clarett
Keyser
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October 23rd, 2012 at 8:43:06 PM permalink
What does have Obama in trouble are the emails that have just been disclosed. The Breaking News, just released, nows show that the admin. knew, while the attack took place, that it was by a terror group. And at the time, an Al Qaeda group even took responsibility, which further contradicted the president's misleading statements.
EvenBob
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October 23rd, 2012 at 8:43:11 PM permalink
Quote: rdw4potus

When is Trump's announcement?



Who cares, he doesn't have diddly. Neither does Allred.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
Keyser
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October 23rd, 2012 at 8:46:40 PM permalink
Trump's just going to say that the Pres. and his wife were or are getting divorced.
vert1276
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October 24th, 2012 at 1:17:58 PM permalink
Quote: Keyser

Trump's just going to say that the Pres. and his wife were or are getting divorced.



intrade right now is closest I have seen it since the spring of 2011

Romney 42.7
Obama 57.5
EvenBob
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October 24th, 2012 at 1:22:33 PM permalink
Quote: vert1276

intrade right now is closest I have seen it since the spring of 2011

Romney 42.7
Obama 57.5



It was 55-45 last night when EU was asleep.
We'll see what happens tonight. They can't
comprenhend that Obama can lose, my god,
he won the Nobel Peace Prize!
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
EvenBob
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October 24th, 2012 at 4:43:19 PM permalink
Its back to 60-40 on Intrade, LOL! They really worked
at it all day to get Obama back there. They must have
freaked out in EU when they woke up this morning.
They LOVE Obama in Europe, he has huge favorability
ratings. He's everything they love. Socialist/Communist,
loves immigrants, illegal or not, loves Islam, he's
not a war monger, loathes the military, and he's black.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
kewlj
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October 24th, 2012 at 4:48:41 PM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

Its back to 60-40 on Intrade, LOL! They really worked
at it all day to get Obama back there. They must have
freaked out in EU when they woke up this morning.
They LOVE Obama in Europe, he has huge favorability
ratings. He's everything they love. Socialist/Communist,
loves immigrants, illegal or not, loves Islam, he's
not a war monger, loathes the military, and he's black.



You seem to have a conspiracy theory about EVERYTHING Bob. lol It couldn't just be that despite, a good showing in the 3 debates as a whole by Mr Romney, 3 weeks of momentum and a tightening race, that intelligent people are looking at the current data, particularly Ohio and are realizing that the odds are still against Mr Romney winning and are wagering likewise.
s2dbaker
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October 24th, 2012 at 4:51:10 PM permalink
Quote: Keyser

Trump's just going to say that the Pres. and his wife were or are getting divorced.

If only it were that interesting. Trump muttered something about term papers and was never heard from again.
Someday, joor goin' to see the name of Googie Gomez in lights and joor goin' to say to joorself, "Was that her?" and then joor goin' to answer to joorself, "That was her!" But you know somethin' mister? I was always her yuss nobody knows it! - Googie Gomez
rdw4potus
rdw4potus
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October 24th, 2012 at 4:55:16 PM permalink
Quote: s2dbaker

If only it were that interesting. Trump muttered something about term papers and was never heard from again.



That's an intriguing offer, really. If I were Obama, I'd definitely comply - on November 10th.
"So as the clock ticked and the day passed, opportunity met preparation, and luck happened." - Maurice Clarett
EvenBob
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October 24th, 2012 at 4:56:15 PM permalink
Quote: kewlj

that intelligent people are looking at the current data,.



Sure, thats what it is. Get real. They want Obama
to win and think they can swing voters in this
country. They don't know that 98% of voters
have no idea what Intrade is and those that do
know, don't care.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
rdw4potus
rdw4potus
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October 24th, 2012 at 5:02:57 PM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

Sure, thats what it is. Get real. They want Obama
to win and think they can swing voters in this
country. They don't know that 98% of voters
have no idea what Intrade is and those that do
know, don't care.



Which of those descriptions do you fit? You seem to know and care.
"So as the clock ticked and the day passed, opportunity met preparation, and luck happened." - Maurice Clarett
s2dbaker
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October 24th, 2012 at 5:06:34 PM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

Sure, thats what it is. Get real. They want Obama
to win and think they can swing voters in this
country. They don't know that 98% of voters
have no idea what Intrade is and those that do
know, don't care.

Darnit!! Bob is right!! I have been colluding with the Europeans to buy up Obama on Intrade to that the rest of you Americans will be fooled into thinking that Obama is destined to win. I would have gotten away with it too if it wasn't for you nosy teenagers!
Someday, joor goin' to see the name of Googie Gomez in lights and joor goin' to say to joorself, "Was that her?" and then joor goin' to answer to joorself, "That was her!" But you know somethin' mister? I was always her yuss nobody knows it! - Googie Gomez
Boz
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October 24th, 2012 at 5:12:18 PM permalink
I have one word that everyone will be talking about the day after the election if Romney wins......ORCA.
EvenBob
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October 24th, 2012 at 5:12:48 PM permalink
Quote: s2dbaker

Americans will be fooled into thinking that Obama is destined to win.



Thats what many of them are doing. Its very
entertaining.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
s2dbaker
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October 24th, 2012 at 5:15:23 PM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

Thats what many of them are doing. Its very
entertaining.

I just confessed to the whole scheme, Bob. I'm glad I can to easily entertain you. :)
Someday, joor goin' to see the name of Googie Gomez in lights and joor goin' to say to joorself, "Was that her?" and then joor goin' to answer to joorself, "That was her!" But you know somethin' mister? I was always her yuss nobody knows it! - Googie Gomez
rxwine
rxwine
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October 24th, 2012 at 5:18:50 PM permalink
There's some basis to believe Romney is running a confidence scam. That is, over confidence.

Quote:

Over the last week, Romney’s campaign has orchestrated a series of high-profile gambits in order to feed its momentum narrative. Last week, for instance, Romney’s campaign blared out the news that it was pulling resources out of North Carolina. The battleground was shifting! Romney on the offensive! On closer inspection, it turned out that Romney was shifting exactly one staffer.



http://nymag.com/daily/intel/2012/10/romney-says-hes-winning-its-a-bluff.html
There's no secret. Just know what you're talking about before you open your mouth.
Keyser
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October 24th, 2012 at 5:48:40 PM permalink
Obama's not going to release his transcripts because he was a poor student. Trump will never have to pay the 5 million.

Regarding Romney winning the election: According to the math, he will.

It appears that the debates have helped him in Michigan. A recent poll take 10-22 to 10-23 by Baydoun/Foster, now shows Romney and Obama tied. The momentum is also with Romney. I suspect that he will also take Wisconsin.
rdw4potus
rdw4potus
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October 24th, 2012 at 5:55:57 PM permalink
Quote: Keyser

Obama's not going to release his transcripts because he was a poor student. Trump will never have to pay the 5 million.

Regarding Romney winning the election: According to the math, he will.



What math is "the math?" Looks to me like real clear politics still has Obama leading the no-leaners electoral map.

He can't have been such a poor student, since he got into Harvard Law and his daddy wasn't the US Ambassador to the UN at the time of his admission. But even if he was, why not say "I am the child of a broken family. I struggled in school, but I worked my ass off and now I'm the President of the United States of America, a Nobel laureate, and a proud father. Who wants to talk about the American Dream?"
"So as the clock ticked and the day passed, opportunity met preparation, and luck happened." - Maurice Clarett
Keyser
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October 24th, 2012 at 5:59:39 PM permalink
I'm sorry, but he doesn't seem very bright to me. He claimed that he was going to have the most transparent administration ever. What happened? Why's he hiding the passport? So many questions, so few answers.

Based on the economy and the unemployment rate, Romney should win. The math and history backs up my claims.
rdw4potus
rdw4potus
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October 24th, 2012 at 6:04:48 PM permalink
Quote: Keyser

Why's he hiding the passport? So many questions, so few answers.



What does the passport have to do with the administration? Where are Romney's public passport documents?
"So as the clock ticked and the day passed, opportunity met preparation, and luck happened." - Maurice Clarett
Keyser
Keyser
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October 24th, 2012 at 6:25:37 PM permalink
Some people believe that the country of origin on his passport back in 1981 will show another country, such as the UK or Kenya. I don't really care. I simply don't want him to win because I feel that he's simply not qualified to be president. I believe that Romney is the most qualified candidate to have run for president in a very long time. What's interesting is that I have yet to meet someone that can state why they believe that Obama is more qualified.
ams288
ams288
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November 7th, 2012 at 5:01:47 AM permalink
BUMP.

:P
Ding Dong the Witch is Dead
FinsRule
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November 7th, 2012 at 7:10:29 AM permalink
Quote: Keyser

I was just looking at Intrade and was amazed at how distorted the presidential race is being shown. They have president Obama being re-elected at 62.8%!

It just goes to show you how slanted the mainstream media is in this country and in Europe. Many of the people watching the news mistakenly believe that Obama will easily win because of the strong spin.

-Keyser



If we're going to bump, we need to do it the right way.
s2dbaker
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November 7th, 2012 at 7:21:07 AM permalink
Quote: Keyser

Based on the economy and the unemployment rate, Romney should win. The math and history backs up my claims.

Must be that "New" math that they tried to teach us in the 70's.
Someday, joor goin' to see the name of Googie Gomez in lights and joor goin' to say to joorself, "Was that her?" and then joor goin' to answer to joorself, "That was her!" But you know somethin' mister? I was always her yuss nobody knows it! - Googie Gomez
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