Where's the Stock Market going-up 200+ today

Quote: AcesAndEights

... I put a decent sum of money in the market on Feb. 27th ... I'm down 15% ....

As a retiree, I keep most of my funds in cash accounts. I have only a modest amount of stocks, with a current value equivalent to about six months of my regular net income (pension and social security.) I essentially never buy or sell, just hold and watch. I rode the up and way-way-down of the dot com boom and bust and the up and down of the housing boom and bust. I am down by half since a peak in 1999, up almost 90% since a nadir in 2002, very slightly down since a pre-housing-crash peak in 2007, and up about 15% since the end of last February when AcesAndEights made his buy. If I had reinvested dividends over the years, I would be up since that latest peak in 2007. Even without reinvesting dividends, I am up from where I was in 1997 before the dot com boom.

I may look at my portfolio value every few days, just from curiosity, but I only record end-of-month values, dividends, and the few sales that occurred due to corporate changes. If I tried to buy and sell daily, weekly, monthly, or whatever based on my own guesses, the guesses of "advisors", or the semi-random noise I see in the market, I would probably go nuts. By owning only a modest amount of uninsured investments and just holding, I don't get panicky even in a big slide like 2000-2002, and I certainly don't go bonkers when the Dow jumps or drops a few hundred points.

What i struggle with is that the country can't keep adding a trillion dollars to the federal deficit, year after year, without harsh consequences to "right the ship". There won't be any good solutions and people aren't going to like them- but there will come a time when we will not be able to "kick the can" down the road any further. Exactly when this time it, I don't know- but things better become more manageable soon or I fear another big downturn. Combined with the possible changing tax code, it does make me want to try and time the market and get out, although I haven't done so yet. As I understand it(someone correct me if I'm wrong) both dividend and capital gains taxes will be up next year under Obama. Under Romney, possibly not, although I'm not sure on that, but hopeful.

TBP I agree. That is why I prefer day trading during this "period" of time. One could just sit in the market years ago but real hard for me to do that now. I'm up 6k in the last 8 months making small gains aprox $200.00 -$300.00 a trade. I have not traded at all in the last few months. Getting antsy!! and nervous as well.

Quote: scire

TBP I agree. That is why I prefer day trading during this "period" of time. One could just sit in the market years ago but real hard for me to do that now. I'm up 6k in the last 8 months making small gains aprox $200.00 -$300.00 a trade. I have not traded at all in the last few months. Getting antsy!! and nervous as well.

I hate it- because even with my "long-term" portfolio, the prospect of losing 20-40% (or worse) at least on paper, makes me sick to even think about- hence my inclination to *want* to trade out, although it's almost impossible to catch the top and who knows where we'll be when the correction occurs? There's also the (optimistic!) scenario that things will work out over the next few years, and we can all breathe a sigh of relief. To not be invested at that point will really put you behind the 8-ball...

...decisions, decisions. I suppose one of my main decision points will be the election: I firmly believe without a change in leadership this economy will at best sputter along and at worse, succumb to a double-dip. Job growth is slowing and just not at the necessary levels to bring in the revenue to help right the ship. Increasing taxes at this time is suicide. Obamacare will cost more than projected and the business uncertainty will continue. But who can predict?

Quote: AcesAndEights

At this point, with the world economy not looking so hot, I'm thinking of cutting my losses. But I don't need the money right now, so I might hold on to it and hope to recover. MGM and LVS are just killing me (WYNN not as bad). I should stick to counting cards, at least I know I'll make money at that in the long term.

MGM is a dog. It is projected to lose money this year and next with the losses that keep being revised in the wrong direction (i.e. going up, not down). Sell that one now at $9+. Mgmt stubbed their toe big time with City Center, which caused their credibility to go right down the tubes.....along with their balance sheet. Saying you are in a better position than CZR isn't saying much and that is really all they can say right now.

LVS & WYNN are both good companies. I prefer LVS below $40 since it has more diversification beyond just Macau (i.e. Singapore mainly, but also convention space in LV & Sands in PA give it a better presence for US turnaround when it happens). Plus they just got the deferral on their additional Cotai project, which shows they are smart enought not to move forward in a bad market. I really am not gonna like it if they commit to that European Vegas project in Spain, but it appears they are likely to pull back on that as well.

If you are gonna stay in the space and long term I think it is a good place to be, I would concentrate position in LVS. If it holds $36 it is a screaming buy and I may have to re-enter it at that point.

Solid financials in the 10-K. DO THE HOMEWORK.

Heres a list of stocks by abbreviation: some you know others you might not.
AAPL AMX CAT CNI COH GWR IBM MCD NLY SCCO T THI

There are no gaming stocks here, and only APPL & IBM are Tech stocks.
I have cyclicly invested in these since 2004, three have never been sold, one was sold in early 2008, and recently bought again.

The Dow for 5 days per Yahoo.

you wouldnt want to fall into any of those crevices, I'm thinking.

PS: on July 13, when this thread started, Dow was @ 12777

The market is down 7% for the week, the Dow
is down 530 today. Oil dropped below $40
at one point today. Is the sky falling?

Quote: EvenBob

The market is down 7% for the week, the Dow
is down 530 today. Oil dropped below $40
at one point today. Is the sky falling?

I looked, sky is not falling.
Great day to have a good % of your money in 'cash accts'.
But then there are are those other accts........

Markets are random. I'd rather be playing craps.