Poll

7 votes (63.63%)
5 votes (45.45%)
4 votes (36.36%)
2 votes (18.18%)
2 votes (18.18%)
3 votes (27.27%)

11 members have voted

Ahigh
Ahigh
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August 25th, 2015 at 7:35:20 AM permalink
You never know the future, unfortunately. If we did, risk taking would not be possible.

Learning to enjoy the fact that we don't know the future is always the solution.

And I'm having loads of fun.
aahigh.com
MrV
MrV
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August 25th, 2015 at 7:58:07 AM permalink
Life: where the waves of uncertainty meet the rocks of reality.
"What, me worry?"
odiousgambit
odiousgambit 
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August 25th, 2015 at 9:16:52 AM permalink
Quote: AZDuffman

It never goes straight down. This market is on the Blue Sky Meth of free money. Dumped my equity funds yesterday. Getting to look too much like early 2008.



You have my cell number, wish you had called me.

I hate to be harsh, but that's textbook wrong move. IMO. If you thought you might need the money before stocks go up again, then you shouldn't have bought stocks in the first place IMO. And they will go back up or history will be written with this downturn.

Yes, IMO... IMHO if you like. I bought instead of sold. You may get the last laugh.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
TwoFeathersATL
TwoFeathersATL
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August 25th, 2015 at 11:47:08 AM permalink
Quote: AZDuffman

It never goes straight down. This market is on the Blue Sky Meth of free money. Dumped my equity funds yesterday. Getting to look too much like early 2008.



Might not have been the best day to "dump equity funds", last Wed would have been better maybe.
But to each their own, the market is in a turmoil, find a place you're comfortable with your 'funds'.
Good luck to us all!
Youuuuuu MIGHT be a 'rascal' if.......(nevermind ;-)...2F
EvenBob
EvenBob
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August 25th, 2015 at 1:11:26 PM permalink
Down 208 for the day, a real blast for
everybody involved.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
DoubleOrNothing
DoubleOrNothing
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August 25th, 2015 at 3:42:09 PM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

Ah, you have the answer then.

Waiting. (sound of crickets)

I can't believe what I believe.
beachbumbabs
beachbumbabs
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August 25th, 2015 at 7:30:59 PM permalink
Quote: beachbumbabs

Although the original post was 2+years ago, reference today: up 300+. For the week; down 500 from close last Friday. Or so my crystal ball says. :)



Oops. Blast. Damn. My retirement funds take another hit. Riding the trough....hopefully not a vortex....
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
odiousgambit
odiousgambit 
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September 1st, 2015 at 1:09:09 PM permalink
Quote: beachbumbabs

Oops. Blast. Damn. My retirement funds take another hit. Riding the trough....hopefully not a vortex....



As long as you don't have to sell, it will only matter if it is still going on when you do - presumably that day [having to sell] comes for all of us.

I think we can now say officially this is not the typical V-shaped hiccup we have been used to. We're back to where we were almost.

Will R-Craps be right about it getting worse before better? I'll be sure to see he gets the credit for saying so. We are not there yet.

PS: in the case of AZ, he will get credit too, but only if he says he bought back in at the right spot LOL
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
TwoFeathersATL
TwoFeathersATL
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September 2nd, 2015 at 12:30:30 PM permalink
My absolutely free investing advice for today, worth every penny.
Sell equities you don't own next Monday, early Mon AM.
Then buy those stocks around noon.....
Then go to yacht and enjoy the rest of the day.
I mean, you earned it. right?
Youuuuuu MIGHT be a 'rascal' if.......(nevermind ;-)...2F
DeMango
DeMango
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September 2nd, 2015 at 3:11:30 PM permalink
China is taking two days off to celebrate VJ day(s). This should mean two days of no bad news, three if you count today. Word was there was manipulation that had a positive impact Wednesday to improve the national mood. Next crash is Monday!
When a rock is thrown into a pack of dogs, the one that yells the loudest is the one who got hit.
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
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Thanked by
RogerKint
August 5th, 2017 at 2:09:49 AM permalink
imho the very most important thing to know about the stock market is that 99.9% of the people who make predictions of any kind thereby implying that there views have predictive value are incorrect. not that there predictions necessarily won't happen. even gail howard the hot selling author of books on winning the lottery sometimes might make right predictions. but the cold hard truth is that their predictions have no predictive value.
Please don't feed the trolls
Hullabaloo
Hullabaloo
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August 5th, 2017 at 12:18:49 PM permalink
Here is a interesting example of stock analysis.

2 articles on investorplace that were posted 2 days apart in early July. The URL's below show the diverging subject matter;

http://investorplace.com/2017/07/5-stocks-to-sell-in-august/view-all/

http://investorplace.com/2017/07/7-all-weather-stocks-to-buy-for-the-next-30-years/view-all/

On both lists, ABBV was the first one mentioned, and both lists included Disney.

Am I supposed to buy them but sell them every August and then buy them again? Seems like a good deal for your broker, and the US Government, but not so much for the purchaser.
billryan
billryan
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August 5th, 2017 at 12:54:04 PM permalink
Who uses brokers these days?
A stock can easily be a short term sell but a good deal long term.
Anyone who equates the stock market with playing craps is misinformed or delusional.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
ZenKinG
ZenKinG
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August 5th, 2017 at 4:43:01 PM permalink
Since I've nailed every single investment prediction that ive made on this forum to date, you guys would be wise to listen to what I have to say.

VGT IS THE best investment that one can make long term. It's been averaging close to 20% a year after their dividend for the last 5 years and it will continue to outperform the market. Keep in mind, the expense ratio for VGT is as low as you will find, with the ratio coming in at .10%. Vanguard never fails to disappoint and offers the most value out there when it comes to their funds. When you compare their expense ratios to their performance, Vanguard is at the top. VGT is no different. Technology is not going anywhere, in fact there hasn't been a more bullish time in history to be involved with tech. With kids these days as young as 7 years old already with a phone in their hands or some type of tablet, it would be foolish to think otherwise. Is anyone really going to replace the likes of giants such as Apple, Microsoft, Google or even Oracle, Cisco, and Intel in the next 20 years? 50 years perhaps?

Leave the individual stock picking for the deluded hedge fund analysts who think they can beat the market. Someone go ahead and tell me again what the percentage is of hedge funds that outperform the market each year. Ill wait.

The best investment you can make is in a low cost long-term bullish sector index fund.
Any private business open to the PUBLIC (ie. droned out casinos) cannot have a criminal trespass enforced against an individual without GOOD CAUSE (Disruptive or Disorderly conduct). You will never go to prison for being thrown out of a casino for legal advantage play and then returning because it's simply unconstitutional 'as applied' to the individual. 'As applied' constitutional issues must FIRST be raised in DISTRICT COURT (trial court) to have it thrown out. You CANNOT raise it on APPEAL This is the best kept secret in the world of casinos not just in Vegas but everywhere in the country. Thank me later.
billryan
billryan
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August 5th, 2017 at 5:31:45 PM permalink
Remind us how much money you have made from these investment predictions again.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
odiousgambit
odiousgambit 
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August 6th, 2017 at 8:06:47 AM permalink
Quote: ZenKinG

VGT IS THE best investment that one can make long term.



OK, it's on my radar, I like ETFs. I only buy during downturns though - it's my age demanding that, but I think even a young person might want to hold off in a hot market, I always did. Dividends are modest btw.

If I could get in a time machine and go back to the dip of early '09, well, it's up about 275% since then.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
ZenKinG
ZenKinG
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August 6th, 2017 at 8:40:35 AM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

OK, it's on my radar, I like ETFs. I only buy during downturns though - it's my age demanding that, but I think even a young person might want to hold off in a hot market, I always did. Dividends are modest btw.

If I could get in a time machine and go back to the dip of early '09, well, it's up about 275% since then.



Understood, but i wouldnt necessarily list this as a 'hot' market. Theres a huge difference between a 'hot' market that comes from media hype and a market that has both current and future sociological demand. We know technology is going no where, so the next question is will anyone dethrone the likes of Apple and Microsoft in the next 20-50 years? I just dont see it. Those are VGT's top holdings.

I do see a split though around $180-$200 though to get the price more 'attractive'. Should help it a lot as well because for some odd reason, retail investors get scared off by a high share price and think theyll make less of a return, which is ludicrous. Psychology rules the market.

VTI is another good one. If youre very conservative, XLP is as good as it gets. In fact XLP fell the least amoujt out of any ETF or mutual fund during the '08 crisis. A mere -20%. If it can survive something lile the '08 crisis with only a -20% downfall, then in my opinion, its as safe as it gets. XLP will make you a bit less, but it's much less volatile and much more suited for the really conservative investor.
Any private business open to the PUBLIC (ie. droned out casinos) cannot have a criminal trespass enforced against an individual without GOOD CAUSE (Disruptive or Disorderly conduct). You will never go to prison for being thrown out of a casino for legal advantage play and then returning because it's simply unconstitutional 'as applied' to the individual. 'As applied' constitutional issues must FIRST be raised in DISTRICT COURT (trial court) to have it thrown out. You CANNOT raise it on APPEAL This is the best kept secret in the world of casinos not just in Vegas but everywhere in the country. Thank me later.
PokerGrinder
PokerGrinder
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August 6th, 2017 at 9:26:14 AM permalink
So how much are you investing in these and which ones ZK?
You can shear a sheep a hundred times, but you can skin it only once. — Amarillo Slim Preston
ZenKinG
ZenKinG
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August 6th, 2017 at 9:52:47 AM permalink
Quote: PokerGrinder

So how much are you investing in these and which ones ZK?



Im waiting for my bankroll to get to around 70k. Then im putting around 45 or 50k into VGT. Ill leave 20-25k for blackjack which should be enough to use to play and grow unless i hit a horrific downswing like i did once back in PA.
Any private business open to the PUBLIC (ie. droned out casinos) cannot have a criminal trespass enforced against an individual without GOOD CAUSE (Disruptive or Disorderly conduct). You will never go to prison for being thrown out of a casino for legal advantage play and then returning because it's simply unconstitutional 'as applied' to the individual. 'As applied' constitutional issues must FIRST be raised in DISTRICT COURT (trial court) to have it thrown out. You CANNOT raise it on APPEAL This is the best kept secret in the world of casinos not just in Vegas but everywhere in the country. Thank me later.
PokerGrinder
PokerGrinder
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August 6th, 2017 at 10:14:11 AM permalink
Quote: ZenKinG

Im waiting for my bankroll to get to around 70k. Then im putting around 45 or 50k into VGT. Ill leave 20-25k for blackjack which should be enough to use to play and grow unless i hit a horrific downswing like i did once back in PA.


You are currently sitting around 45k? Doesn't taking that much out of your bankroll send your RoR through the ceiling?
You can shear a sheep a hundred times, but you can skin it only once. — Amarillo Slim Preston
ZenKinG
ZenKinG
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August 6th, 2017 at 10:37:24 AM permalink
Quote: PokerGrinder

You are currently sitting around 45k? Doesn't taking that much out of your bankroll send your RoR through the ceiling?



What?
Any private business open to the PUBLIC (ie. droned out casinos) cannot have a criminal trespass enforced against an individual without GOOD CAUSE (Disruptive or Disorderly conduct). You will never go to prison for being thrown out of a casino for legal advantage play and then returning because it's simply unconstitutional 'as applied' to the individual. 'As applied' constitutional issues must FIRST be raised in DISTRICT COURT (trial court) to have it thrown out. You CANNOT raise it on APPEAL This is the best kept secret in the world of casinos not just in Vegas but everywhere in the country. Thank me later.
billryan
billryan
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August 6th, 2017 at 11:02:10 AM permalink
I, for one, am looking forward to the howls when zk actually puts money in and the stock drops.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
Ibeatyouraces
Ibeatyouraces
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August 6th, 2017 at 11:05:34 AM permalink
Quote: billryan

I, for one, am looking forward to the howls when zk actually puts money in and the stock drops.


Well, his screen name on bjtf was Lonewolf.
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
rxwine
rxwine
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August 6th, 2017 at 12:58:59 PM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

imho the very most important thing to know about the stock market is that 99.9% of the people who make predictions of any kind thereby implying that there views have predictive value are incorrect. not that there predictions necessarily won't happen. even gail howard the hot selling author of books on winning the lottery sometimes might make right predictions. but the cold hard truth is that their predictions have no predictive value.



Every year create a new online identity and make a list of stock prediction on some sites. If you get a year bang on right, go exploit it and reveal your genius. Hopefully no one will ID your previous identities where you just performed like most people.
There's no secret. Just know what you're talking about before you open your mouth.
billryan
billryan
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August 6th, 2017 at 1:31:04 PM permalink
While I can't predict which way the next 100 point market swing will go, I can predict, with absolute certainty which way the next 100% market swing will go.
I can't believe someone would compare an author of books on winning lotteries to a financial advisor.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
rxwine
rxwine
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August 6th, 2017 at 2:04:09 PM permalink
Quote: billryan

While I can't predict which way the next 100 point market swing will go, I can predict, with absolute certainty which way the next 100% market swing will go.
I can't believe someone would compare an author of books on winning lotteries to a financial advisor.



I thought the dart throwing monkey story was legit about picking a portfolio. Is it just legend?
There's no secret. Just know what you're talking about before you open your mouth.
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
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August 7th, 2017 at 1:53:35 AM permalink
Quote: rxwine

I thought the dart throwing monkey story was legit about picking a portfolio. Is it just legend?



it was an analogy put forth by Professor Burton Malkiel in his classic book "a random walk down wall street." it pissed off a lot of wall street suits. 2 noble prize winners myron scholes and robert merton thought they had the market all figured out and formed a hedge fund in the 90s - long term capital management. they did great for a couple of years. then they lost everything. when it happened they lost so much, billions, some predicted the entire world economy would come down with the fund. that didn't happen but scholes and merton wouldn't be running any more hedge funds. in malkiel's great book he points out that during the last bubble - around '99; some teenager with a carpet cleaning business and very few customers promoted himself as a dot com sensation and got his stock listed and his stock went up to somewhere in the 70s. hilarious.
Last edited by: lilredrooster on Aug 7, 2017
Please don't feed the trolls
billryan
billryan
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August 7th, 2017 at 2:39:09 AM permalink
The Zzzzzbest carpet scandal was a classic ponzi scheme that collapsed in the late 1980s, not 1999.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
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August 7th, 2017 at 3:07:41 AM permalink
Quote: billryan

While I can't predict which way the next 100 point market swing will go, I can predict, with absolute certainty which way the next 100% market swing will go.


please explain what this means. first you say you can't predict it then you say you can. i don't get it. thanks.
Please don't feed the trolls
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
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August 7th, 2017 at 4:31:12 AM permalink
i'm not trying to brag although some will say i am bragging but i've outperformed about 80% of wall street money managers over the last 30 years with my index funds. they make millions for the advice they dole out but nobody will give me a lousy dime. it's just NOT FAIR. i know; this strategy is just too boring for a lot of people. they want zip, zap and flash. adrenaline rushing. i'd rather get that with 50 bucks on a fast horse. for many years fund managers were very embarrassed by falling well short of the s&p index. so they played a real cute trick. in their advertising, brochures, prospectuses, etc. they stopped comparing their performance to the s&p. the now compare it to something called the "lipper average" which is supposedly comparing it to other funds in the same category.
Last edited by: lilredrooster on Aug 7, 2017
Please don't feed the trolls
billryan
billryan
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August 7th, 2017 at 9:08:09 AM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

please explain what this means. first you say you can't predict it then you say you can. i don't get it. thanks.



Reading is FUNDAMENTAL. Please tell me you understand the difference in the two statements.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
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August 7th, 2017 at 9:23:29 AM permalink
Quote: billryan

Reading is FUNDAMENTAL. Please tell me you understand the difference in the two statements.



got it. but you're saying 100% swing the other way is impossible. nuclear war? hydrogen bombs falling?
Please don't feed the trolls
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