Will it matter?
http://www.businessinsider.com/republican-vice-presidential-candidates-2012-15-people-who-could-earn-the-nomination-2012-5?op=1
Then vote if you haven't already.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/off-topic/9794-the-election/
Quote: winmonkeyspit3I would like to see Rubio, although honestly I'll take whoever gives Romney the best chance to beat Obama, which is very hard to tell.
Soooooo...you want to see Rubio for sure, then? :-) I don't know how Rubio would be as Veep - I question his ability to defer and/or fall in line - but he'd help in FL, AZ, CO, and NV, and that goes a long way to winning the election.
Looking at electorial map, it is clear to me that Mr Romney need to win at least two out three states out of Florida, Virginia, and Ohio. If Obama wins any 2 out of three, he wins, and it is possible Obama could lose two of three and still win, although unlikely. Recent polls in Florida show a very close race, almost a dead heat. A Rubio selection would probably guarantee Florida, but would not do much elsewhere as even though Rubio is latino, he is Cuban and that does not translate into a bump in the rest of the latino vote. I suspect Romney will win Florida by a slim margin without Rubio and I think they would like to use the VP pick to strengthen elsewhere.
Virginia Governor Bob McDonnell as the selection might be able to deliver Virginia, although his popularity there appears to have weakened as a result of his recent women's issues. His selection would also weaken Mitt Romney's already lagging numbers with women voters elsewhere. Not a good selection, unless it has absolutely come down to Virginia, which they won't know by selection time. House rep, Rob Portman of Ohio, has been mentioned to try to sure up Ohio, but he is not very well known outside of his own district, and doesn't guarantee delivering even Ohio, let alone do much elsewhere.
Chris Christie would excite the base that Romney is having trouble exciting but comes with a lot of baggage as he turns off as many folks as he excites. His selection would not change New Jersey which would still go to Obama. There appears to be no serious female in contention which could help Mr Romney's far lagging female voter numbers. I think the republicans are hesitant to go down that road again, as The Sarah Palin experiment produced disaterous results, although in my opinion, more because she was or came off as unqualified and ready than the fact that she was a woman.
Bottom line. There are two serious candidates in my opinion. Wisconsin's Paul Ryan, who might be able to deliver Wisconsin, is popular in parts of neighboring Ohio and would sure up the base that Romney is having problems with and Virginia Senator Eric Cantor, who might be able to deliver Virginia as well as sure up the base that Romney is having problems with. Both also have negatives in that although they would sure up the base, they turn off some crucial independent swing voters. Of the two, it appears only Senator Ryan is being seriously considered and as of this moment, is my prediction.
As far as the election goes, if I had to handicap the election at this moment, I suspect Obama would win and probably win with a little more breathing room in the electorial college vote than many think. Maybe as much as the 300-238 range. The Popular vote would be very close and may even go to Romney, meaning he will win some of the rupublican states by wide margins but lose many of the swing states by close margins. Again, this is my prediction as of this moment. Two key future points, the debates and the economy in sept/oct could dramatically change my prediction.
Probably just to get some no-risk feedback for Romney. Not sure how serious he really is about the possibility. Perhaps if it had stirred some excitement, but can't say I've notice that it has. I think she's now a somewhat unlikely pick. Or at least second tier, for the moment. She may be a go-to if his real picks fall through unexpectedly.
Rob Portman, Ohio Senator (20.5 percent) He's "one of the most anonymous Senators in the country," (Romney doesn't need to heap on the boring)
Chris Christie, New Jersey Governor (9.9 percent) No way, doesn't bring anyone new to the ballot box
Tim Pawlenty, Minnesota Governor (5.5 percent)See Portman
Bobby Jindal, Louisiana Governor (4.1 percent) I think many older suburban or rural Republicans are very bothered by the seeming charge that the Repulbican Party is the "party for white people". They would embrace a minority VP candidate that doesn't upset their world view.
Mia Love, a Haitian-American member of the Republican Party who is running for congress in Utah is one of the darlings of the Party right now. Especially with quotes like
My father said: ‘Mia, your mother and I never took a handout. You will not be a burden to society,’ ” she said with a stern smile. “ ‘You will give back.
Quote: kewljLooking at electorial map, it is clear to me that Mr Romney need to win at least two out three states out of Florida, Virginia, and Ohio. If Obama wins any 2 out of three, he wins, and it is possible Obama could lose two of three and still win, although unlikely. Recent polls in Florida show a very close race, almost a dead heat. A Rubio selection would probably guarantee Florida, but would not do much elsewhere as even though Rubio is latino, he is Cuban and that does not translate into a bump in the rest of the latino vote. I suspect Romney will win Florida by a slim margin without Rubio and I think they would like to use the VP pick to strengthen elsewhere.
Technically Romney can win Florida, Ohio and Virginia (along with North Carolina) and still lose the election if Obama wins NH, PA, WI, IA, CO, and NV.
It's difficult to say if Rubio will frighten people with the double Mormon ticket. The people who would normally be leery of such a ticket, are completely horrified by Obama's stance on gay marriage. Many of them would vote Republican if a mailman were on the ticket.
Quote: pacomartin
Rob Portman, Ohio Senator (20.5 percent) He's "one of the most anonymous Senators in the country," (Romney doesn't need to heap on the boring)
I consider myself a bit of a political junkie, BUT, I didn't even realize Portman WAS a senator. I thought he was a congressman. My bad. Doesn't change my earlier assessment one bit though.
Quote:Former vice-president Dick Cheney said Sunday that having Sarah Palin on the 2008 White House ticket was "a mistake", urging this year's Republican candidate Mitt Romney to go for someone more experienced.
...what the Democrats were saying 4 years ago.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/jul/29/romney-mccain-sarah-palin-mistake?newsfeed=true
Quote: s2dbakerMitt/Condi - Awesome Ticket or The Most Awesome Ticket. Discuss!
In polls in PA she was the most popular choice. But it is highly unlikely that Condi will be enough to win Pennsylvania. She might win Ohio however.
I think people like that she seems to be dragged kicking and screaming into her positions. She is already well vetted.
It might be interesting if she begins dating as VP. She is 57 year old woman who has never been married. I suppose she is entitled to a sleep-over buddy.
As for Cheney's comment about Sarah Palin's experience. It's an easy comment to make. She wasn't enough to win the election. Cheney is one of the ultimate insiders.
Romney does need someone interesting. Those are not usually the people with the most experience.
Quote: kewlj
Bottom line. There are two serious candidates in my opinion. Wisconsin's Paul Ryan, who might be able to deliver Wisconsin, is popular in parts of neighboring Ohio and would sure up the base that Romney is having problems with and Virginia Senator Eric Cantor, who might be able to deliver Virginia as well as sure up the base that Romney is having problems with. Both also have negatives in that although they would sure up the base, they turn off some crucial independent swing voters. Of the two, it appears only Senator Ryan is being seriously considered and as of this moment, is my prediction.
Geez. who would have thought. :)
Quote: WizardAs long as it isn't Jindall or Rubio, I booked the "no" on both of them.
What's your issue with Jindal? I know he hasn't tip-toed around a handful of very controversial issues.
As much as I would love, love to see Christie on the campaign trail - he's not someone you can force down the throats of the entire Republican party. If you're going to have a pro-gay and anti-gun R in the race, he needs to win a primary by popular decision.
Quote: EvenBobAP says its Paul Ryan, whoever that is.
Ron Paul, you say?
Paul Ryan would be slightly older than 20th century VP's Nixon, Quayle, and Teddy Roosevelt but slightly younger than Al Gore.
Richard Nixon:January 20, 1953: 40 years, 11 days
Dan Quayle:January 20, 1989: 41 years, 351 days
Theodore Roosevelt: March 4, 1901: 42 years, 128 days
Al Gore: January 20, 1993: 44 years, 295 days
Paul Ryan would also be younger than three pre-civil war VP's. JC Breckinridge just barely made the age requirement of 35 years old, and followed his term as VP by becoming a confederate general.
Daniel D. Tompkins: March 4, 1817: 42 years, 256 days
John C. Calhoun: March 4, 1825: 42 years, 351 days
John C. Breckinridge: March 4, 1857: 36 years, 47 days
- Schuyler Colfax (dumped by President Grant for his second term because of a scandal)
- John Nance Garner was FDR vice president for two terms. He broke with President over the enlargement of the Supreme Court and was replaced for 3rd term.
-
Henry A. Wallace was FDR vice president for his third term. He was replaced with Harry Truman by politics and narrowly missed being President when FDR died 81 days into office.
Sprio Agnew resigned, which is a unique case.
Quote: pacomartinRomney's VP gives the media something new to write about, which gives him a temporary boost. The idea of Obama replacing Joe Biden with a new VP for political gain is discussed frequently. It's actually only happened three times in history (and twice with the same president).
Sprio Agnew resigned, which is a unique case.
I agree and don't buy Obama replacing Biden. To do so at this late stage would make him look very weak. If he wanted to replace him the thing to do would have been say "he might want to pursue other interests" last spring. Let Biden say he has done his bit, even if he was told to say that. At this point would be to change would be reactive.
Ryan is a smart choice. WI may now flip more easily. Conservatives like him. Ane he can be pitched as having a guy who is "an adult on the budget" on the ticket. On to the convention!
Quote: AZDuffmanRyan is a smart choice. WI may now flip more easily. Conservatives like him. Ane he can be pitched as having a guy who is "an adult on the budget" on the ticket.
Wisconsin is generally considered very close to Obama in the battle ground state category. Obama took 56.2% of the vote in 2008, to McCain's 42.3%. In my mind if Romney wins WI, he has already won Florida and Ohio and Wisconsin is just icing on the cake.
But I guess it is more about how the candidate plays to the media then about geography.
Geraldine Ferraro was a congressman in 1984, but I can't remember too many times that a representative was selected as VP candidate.
Quote: pacomartinWisconsin is generally considered very close to Obama in the battle ground state category. Obama took 56.2% of the vote in 2008, to McCain's 42.3%. In my mind if Romney wins WI, he has already won Florida and Ohio and Wisconsin is just icing on the cake.
But I guess it is more about how the candidate plays to the media then about geography.
Both times Bush ran WI was very close, close enough that it could have flipped had the GOP worked the ground more between elections and had someone who wanted to win been at the top of the ticket. What we see now may just be a return to the trendline. I can't remember a pick from the HoR either, though 1 POTUS was staight from the House, I forget who.
Quote: AZDuffman
Ryan is a smart choice. WI may now flip more easily. Conservatives like him. Ane he can be pitched as having a guy who is "an adult on the budget" on the ticket. On to the convention!
You know that only 30% of likely voters approve of Ryan's budget, right? With Ryan's budget and Romney's wealth and tax plan all on one ticket, there will be no saving the independent middle class vote.
Quote: rdw4potusYou know that only 30% of likely voters approve of Ryan's budget, right? With Ryan's budget and Romney's wealth and tax plan all on one ticket, there will be no saving the independent middle class vote.
Unfortunately rdw is most likely correct. If you tell a middle class voter that by continuing with Obama he will be having his government continue to take out additional $10,000 a year loans in his name the voter will shrug his shoulders. But if you tell him his medicare costs will go up $5 a week he will freak out. The Ryan budget makes so much sense as a concept--- pay out what you take in, pay off what you owe!
Romney just traded Florida for Wisconsin and Wisconsin isn't even a sure bet. There's still three months to go before the election and that's an eternity in politics but it's looking more and more like 330 electoral votes for Obama.Quote: rdw4potusYou know that only 30% of likely voters approve of Ryan's budget, right? With Ryan's budget and Romney's wealth and tax plan all on one ticket, there will be no saving the independent middle class vote.
Quote: s2dbakerRomney just traded Florida for Wisconsin and Wisconsin isn't even a sure bet. There's still three months to go before the election and that's an eternity in politics but it's looking more and more like 330 electoral votes for Obama.
I agree. But now Romney gets to have a very involved debate about fiscal policy. He might even "win," but if people don't understand or care it'll hurt him in the end. He needed a running mate who could connect with people better than he could, and that's just not what he got here. it's like he traded the election for a technical fiscal policy discussion.
We'll see if the Obama team tries to present their budget plan or if they just attack the opposition's. I know that negative stuff works to a point but we just had a huge swing in an election here in Texas because one candidate presented many negatives about his opponent and forgot to tell anyone why he was the right candidate. He went from being squarely ahead in the election to being soundly defeated. Yes, his opponent picked up some outside support but a lot of voters just got tired of the negative stuff.
It'll be interesting to see how it plays out. I'm obviously hoping it goes to Romney and Ryan instead of the current team. I think that President Obama does not deserve a second term. He has failed to deliver on even the easiest to keep of his promises--transparency--and he has failed miserably in keeping the harder ones.
Quote: RonCIf Ryan can present his budget as the same kind most of us have to keep
But that isn't what Ryan's budget is. Not at all. When most of us come up short, we look for ways to bring in extra money. Ryan didn't. When that isn't enough, most of us look for the least objectionable way to cut our spending. What Ryan is doing is the equivalent of stopping payments to Grandma's nursing home. And, based on the overwhelming polling results, most Americans understand that.
Quote: rdw4potusBut that isn't what Ryan's budget is. Not at all. When most of us come up short, we look for ways to bring in extra money. Ryan didn't. When that isn't enough, most of us look for the least objectionable way to cut our spending. What Ryan is doing is the equivalent of stopping payments to Grandma's nursing home. And, based on the overwhelming polling results, most Americans understand that.
Yes--- Ryan's budget will stop payments WITH MONEY WE DO NOT HAVE. The Democrats want to keep making payments WITH MONEY WE DO NOT HAVE! I hope (but of course am not confident of) that regular voting Americans see it that way. Of course, the usual Democrat scare tactic, 'grandma will be thrown out of the nursing home', even if not true, resonates with simple voters....
Quote: SOOPOOYes--- Ryan's budget will stop payments WITH MONEY WE DO NOT HAVE. The Democrats want to keep making payments WITH MONEY WE DO NOT HAVE! I hope (but of course am not confident of) that regular voting Americans see it that way. Of course, the usual Democrat scare tactic, 'grandma will be thrown out of the nursing home', even if not true, resonates with simple voters....
I'm not sure that's entirely true. At the very least, the democrats also want to BRING IN ADDITIONAL MONEY. FWIW, I think the best course of action is to both bring in additional money and spend less. But that would leave the government with extra money, and both parties seem utterly incapable of handling a surplus.
Quote: rdw4potusBut that isn't what Ryan's budget is. Not at all. When most of us come up short, we look for ways to bring in extra money. Ryan didn't. When that isn't enough, most of us look for the least objectionable way to cut our spending. What Ryan is doing is the equivalent of stopping payments to Grandma's nursing home. And, based on the overwhelming polling results, most Americans understand that.
Really? There is a provision in his budget that specifically tosses Grandma out of the nursing home?
Let's not be ridiculous. Perhaps the budget has cuts in it that people will find objectionable and perhaps there need to be adjustments to the plan, but the road we need to head down is one towards paying for things as we buy them and not increasing the deficit. It isn't that we should never run a yearly deficit; things will happen that make us go in the red. It is the continued reliance on deficit spending to fund programs that cost too much that is not sustainable in the long run.
Quote: RonCReally? There is a provision in his budget that specifically tosses Grandma out of the nursing home?
Let's not be ridiculous. Perhaps the budget has cuts in it that people will find objectionable and perhaps there need to be adjustments to the plan, but the road we need to head down is one towards paying for things as we buy them and not increasing the deficit. It isn't that we should never run a yearly deficit; things will happen that make us go in the red. It is the continued reliance on deficit spending to fund programs that cost too much that is not sustainable in the long run.
What I thought I said fairly clearly was that ryan's cuts were the equivalent of a personal budget that tossed Grandma out of the nursing home. He went for the largest cuts instead of taking the time to make more intelligent cuts or find ways to close loopholes and/or intelligently bring in more money.
Quote: rdw4potusWhat I thought I said fairly clearly was that ryan's cuts were the equivalent of a personal budget that tossed Grandma out of the nursing home. He went for the largest cuts instead of taking the time to make more intelligent cuts or find ways to close loopholes and/or intelligently bring in more money.
"What Ryan is doing is the equivalent of stopping payments to Grandma's nursing home."
No one would cut their budget by stopping payments for any necessary expenditures, so your "clear" example sounds more like something the Democrats would say in their characterization of the Ryan budget plan.
I don't mind Paul Ryan (I don't usually strongly agree with him, but his something is better than their nothing) but because he actually came up with a plan, he's been a target of the left. I can't speak much to his reputation outside of Central NJ, but most politically aware people around here absolutely hate him for that plan. Personally, I thought the plan was too middle of the road and not anywhere near strong enough, but people around here trashed on him.
Of course, Ryan's a charismatic, energetic figure. I guess it comes down to how many independents would prefer to let Obama stay in, versus how many want to give Romney a chance.
Quote: RonC"What Ryan is doing is the equivalent of stopping payments to Grandma's nursing home."
No one would cut their budget by stopping payments for any necessary expenditures, so your "clear" example sounds more like something the Democrats would say in their characterization of the Ryan budget plan.
I guess that'd depend on whether or not you believe that gutting medicare is the same thing as saving medicare. Personally, I'd rather close corporate tax loopholes and increase dividend & capital gains taxes before cutting medical benefits to the elderly.
Quote: rdw4potusYou know that only 30% of likely voters approve of Ryan's budget, right? With Ryan's budget and Romney's wealth and tax plan all on one ticket, there will be no saving the independent middle class vote.
And only 30% or so approve of Obamacare.
What does Romeny's wealth have to do with anything? The only people who dislike it are those who refuse to work and are supporting Obama anyways. Most hard working people aspire to wealth so see it as either unimportant or a good thing.
Quote: rdw4potusI'm not sure that's entirely true. At the very least, the democrats also want to BRING IN ADDITIONAL MONEY. FWIW, I think the best course of action is to both bring in additional money and spend less. But that would leave the government with extra money, and both parties seem utterly incapable of handling a surplus.
Not really, the Democrat Party just wants to say they increased taxes on "the rich." Such increases do not increase revenue, history has shown this. Revenue sticks to about 18% of GDP. The problem is 100% on the spending side. Obama said he would go "line by line, using a scalpel and not a machete."
He hasn't even used a butter knife. In fact, he just called for more bailouts of any industry that needs them.
Ryan is among the few who have laid out a real plan. FWIW, turning Medicare into a voucher system is about the smartest idea out there. Let people currently in the system stay. Let me choose what I want coverage for when I get there.
OTOH, if you still want to "bring in more money" get the bottom 50% to pay income taxes.
1980. Its what Obama's doing exactly. Carter couldn't
run on his record, so all he talked about all summer and
fall was how bad a president Reagan would be, how he
would ruin the country.
All Obama talks about is how awful Romney is. He never
mentions the keystones of his own term, like Obamacare. And
they talk about Ryan's budget? If I recall, Ryan's budget
passed the house and Obama's budget didn't get one vote
from anybody.
Quote: AZDuffmanAnd only 30% or so approve of Obamacare.
Have you looked at a poll on the subject lately? It's up to over 50% approval since the Court ruled. I'm not sure why that changed opinions, but apparently it did.
Well, one site that I frequent daily is real clear politics. What is special about RCP is that there polls and data are based on averages of many polls. Republican leaning polls like Fox and Rasmussen, as well as democratic and independent leaning polls. So there data has a little more credibility. In the last 2 weeks, the RCP data has indicated the race getting away from Romeny. Obama's lead in the average polls has shot up from about 1.5 to over 4.2 points yesterday and actually increased to 4.6 AFTER the Ryan announcement. This may seem like not a big deal but really there is a very small slice of independent or moderate voters, maybe 12%, that will decide this election, so 4.6% lead is pretty big! the electorial vote was even more one sided. (270 needed to win) As of yesterday 247 for Oboma, 191 for Romney, with 8 toss up stated representing 100 electorial votes. That means Obama only needed 1 or 2 of those 8 tossup states to secure victory, and polls actually had him leading in 7 of the 8.
Now, today after the Ryan pick, Wisconsin has been moved from the Obama ledger to the toss up, so it is now 237 to 191, with 110 toss up. Certainly seems reasonable. The selection of Ryan does not guarantee wisconsin for Romney as Obama has a pretty big lead. Certainly more polling data is needed now. Keep in mind that Ryan is only really popular in one district in wisconsin. He has never even run for, let alone won state-wide office, so maybe he carries wisconsin for romney, maybe he doesn't. Again, more data needed. What he will do is energy the conservative base of the party. But, those folks were going to be voting for Romney anyway. Even if they don't find Romney conservative enough for their liking, the choice is Romney and Obama, they vote Romney, so Ryan's inclusion doesn't do much.
But he also comes with negative and among them is that he turns off senior voters because his budget wants to dramatically change medicare and social security. Now the fact is that any changes proposed wouldn't effect current seniors citizens on either program, but that is not how it will be sold. The obama team will make a strong case that Ryan-Romney want to throw grandma under the bus. That may be unfair but that's politics. It is what is known as a wedge issue and both sides do it. Noboby better than the republicans and Karl Rove, although Obama's team is a close second. So the result is Romney can expect to lose support among senior citizens. That is big trouble for a couple key states with large senior citizen populations. The 4 top states with elderly populations are Florida, Nevada, Arizona, and Pennsylvania. Pa, won't be effected, Obama was going to win anyway. His lead just got larger. Arizona probably doesn't matter. Romeny has a pretty big lead there and will most likely still win, but the state did just become a little closer. Keep an eye on new polling to see if it gets close enough to matter. Florida and Nevada are the two that it will matter a great deal. Both toss up states that Obama has slim leads in, that are both likely to increase. And those two states puts Obama over 270, even if Romney were to win every other swing, toss-up state. Again, Romney trails in all but 1 of those, so that is unlikely.
I am sure there will be a little bump from the announcement of this pick, but in the long run it probably seals the deal for Obama.
Paul Ryan’s extreme budget includes a tax “reform” plan that would make the Bush tax cuts for the wealthy permanent, and give millionaires an additional tax cut worth over $250,000 a year. Paying for these tax cuts for the most fortunate families would require higher taxes on the middle class, gutting investments in our future, and ending Medicare as we know it.
Raise taxes on the middle class:
Just like Mitt Romney’s tax plan, middle-class families could pay thousands of dollars more a year in taxes to help fund tax cuts for millionaires. Ryan would cut or eliminate middle-class tax deductions like mortgage interest, charitable contributions, and health premiums.
Quote: kewlj
but in the long run it probably seals the deal for Obama.
Yes, there are still some small businesses left. The
foreclosure rate could be higher. Unemployment
could go to 12%. More gov't entitlements, expand
welfare, make us a 2nd rate military power. There's so
much more for Obama to accomplish, it would be
a shame not to see him complete what he started.
(I know its Bush's fault, but you can't really say that
anymore, even though we all know its true. Shhh.)
says the White House is 'giddy with happiness'
over the Ryan choice. Others are saying they
'couldn't be more pleased', Ryan is 'a gift' to them.
Whenever the Left over reacts like this, its
means they aren't happy at all. What they
really feel is 'uh oh'. But because their
base is so clueless and couldn't possibly
think for themselves, they have to act like
this is the best news they ever heard. If
the base senses anything but marching
in lockstep from those in charge, they'll
give up hope and stay away from the polls
in droves.