Tiltpoul
Tiltpoul
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December 4th, 2011 at 2:28:10 AM permalink
I would normally post this as a blog post, except I'm sure more people feel this way...

For about the past year, Blackjack has been absolutely killer to me. It doesn't matter the rules (S17, H17, RSA or not, etc). It doesn't matter how many decks, although Double Deck is just outright cruel to me. It usually doesn't matter what decision I make, it won't make a difference. I cannot win a significant amount playing BJ anymore.

Double downs have almost left my vocabulary, regardless of what the dealer is showing (especially doubling a 10). Before you say "well that's where the money is at," I look at how many times I SHOULD have doubled and what the result was. I can safely say for the past year, it's a 55-45 in house's favor. Splits have fared a little bit better... but those are rare when I've been getting them.

Blackjacks have been favoring the house. My last session was 11-2 for the house (11 for the house, 2 for me) with a 9-0 run. If I have a 20, and the dealer is showing a face, he/she has a 20 or BJ. Made 20s are tough to get, and drawn hands don't end well. If I have 17, dealer has 18; you get the idea.

I think, in the long term, I had a lot of luck early on in my gambling. This is variance just getting the best of me. I don't doubt that eventually we can turn this beast around, but I've just about given up on playing BJ period.
"One out of every four people are [morons]"- Kyle, South Park
odiousgambit
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December 4th, 2011 at 2:48:50 AM permalink
I have pretty much figured I will play very little BJ anymore. I think I got to where I played correctly enough to be working only against the roughly 0.50% HE in games available around here. That sounded low enough to be winning almost half my sessions, but I no longer think so. I started comparing it to Craps, and have decided that there are two factors that kill you in BJ: the number of hands per hour is higher, each bet is resolved win, lose, or draw as soon as the dealer gets his final cards. Secondly, the variance is very low.

In Craps, the line bets are only resolved immediately part of the time and with free odds the HE can be made even lower most places. The variance means a wild ride but also chances to walk away a winner.

Not a card counter or anything, this leaves BJ as a curiousity game for me; I'll dabble in it since I learned how to play it, but long sessions are just crazy IMO.

PS: Regarding you subject line, just speaking for myself, I want more variance.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
1BB
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December 4th, 2011 at 5:04:04 AM permalink
Quote: Tiltpoul

I would normally post this as a blog post, except I'm sure more people feel this way...

For about the past year, Blackjack has been absolutely killer to me. It doesn't matter the rules (S17, H17, RSA or not, etc). It doesn't matter how many decks, although Double Deck is just outright cruel to me. It usually doesn't matter what decision I make, it won't make a difference. I cannot win a significant amount playing BJ anymore.

Double downs have almost left my vocabulary, regardless of what the dealer is showing (especially doubling a 10). Before you say "well that's where the money is at," I look at how many times I SHOULD have doubled and what the result was. I can safely say for the past year, it's a 55-45 in house's favor. Splits have fared a little bit better... but those are rare when I've been getting them.

Blackjacks have been favoring the house. My last session was 11-2 for the house (11 for the house, 2 for me) with a 9-0 run. If I have a 20, and the dealer is showing a face, he/she has a 20 or BJ. Made 20s are tough to get, and drawn hands don't end well. If I have 17, dealer has 18; you get the idea.

I think, in the long term, I had a lot of luck early on in my gambling. This is variance just getting the best of me. I don't doubt that eventually we can turn this beast around, but I've just about given up on playing BJ period.



It sounds like you're only remembering the bad. Surely you've had some nice wins.

If you're not counting I wouldn't be too optimistic on turning things around. In the long term a basic strategy player will lose. How much depends on several factors including house edge and how well you use basic strategy.

The good news is that even with mistakes, your odds at blackjack are better than most casino games and slot machines.
Many people, especially ignorant people, want to punish you for speaking the truth. - Mahatma Ghandi
Tiltpoul
Tiltpoul
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December 4th, 2011 at 7:03:13 AM permalink
Quote: 1BB

It sounds like you're only remembering the bad. Surely you've had some nice wins.



Yes, a long time ago. Over the course of the past year, I can distinctly remember about 4 shoes that I won more than 5 units at the end of the shoe. Actually, on this current trip, I did have one nice run; coupled with three bad ones.

I know the memory thing comes into play, and that's why this is just in gripes.

Quote: 1BB

If you're not counting I wouldn't be too optimistic on turning things around.



I know how to count, but don't really increase my bets accordingly. This year especially, when the count has been pretty high, the BJ's have gone over to the dealer's side, or I'll end up with face-small against a face card. It's my "luck" right now, and variance at this time has put me on the bad side of the coin.
"One out of every four people are [morons]"- Kyle, South Park
Headlock
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December 4th, 2011 at 9:34:23 AM permalink
I've had the same experience Tiltpoul. I rarely play BJ anymore, but here's my story from the last time I played.

My wife and I flew to Vegas to see The Eagles at MGM Grand Garden Arena on November 5. They will be touring in 2012 and I recommend you see them if you have the chance. Anyway, we sat down at a $25 table, 6 deck shoe S17, surrender allowed. I play a progression starting at 2 units, going to 1 unit on the first win and increasing 1 unit on each win thereafter. Back to 2 units after a loss. First hand I got 10 or 11, doubled and won, so I was up $100 already! But believe me that was the best it got. I lost $500 of my money, plus the $100 I won on the first hand, before that shoe was done. I surrendered 15 against a 10; that was a mistake because now the dealer recognized I knew basic strategy, and I never saw another 15 or 16. You may say that's a good thing, but no, instead I was getting 13's and 14's. I had three 12's during the shoe and drew a 10 on each one. Aren't the odds roughly 9/13 to draw a non-bust card to a 12? Less than a 3% chance of busting 12 with a 10 on the draw.

I can't remember the last time I had a winning session at blackjack.
Ibeatyouraces
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December 4th, 2011 at 10:03:07 AM permalink
deleted
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
Headlock
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December 4th, 2011 at 10:46:27 AM permalink
Quote: Ibeatyouraces

You will bust a 12 with a 10 about 30%, not 3%.



You're right, I meant to say 3% chance of busting 3 12's in a row with a 10.
dm
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December 4th, 2011 at 11:03:22 AM permalink
Quote: Tiltpoul

I would normally post this as a blog post, except I'm sure more people feel this way...

For about the past year, Blackjack has been absolutely killer to me. It doesn't matter the rules (S17, H17, RSA or not, etc). It doesn't matter how many decks, although Double Deck is just outright cruel to me. It usually doesn't matter what decision I make, it won't make a difference. I cannot win a significant amount playing BJ anymore.

Double downs have almost left my vocabulary, regardless of what the dealer is showing (especially doubling a 10). Before you say "well that's where the money is at," I look at how many times I SHOULD have doubled and what the result was. I can safely say for the past year, it's a 55-45 in house's favor. Splits have fared a little bit better... but those are rare when I've been getting them.

Blackjacks have been favoring the house. My last session was 11-2 for the house (11 for the house, 2 for me) with a 9-0 run. If I have a 20, and the dealer is showing a face, he/she has a 20 or BJ. Made 20s are tough to get, and drawn hands don't end well. If I have 17, dealer has 18; you get the idea.

I think, in the long term, I had a lot of luck early on in my gambling. This is variance just getting the best of me. I don't doubt that eventually we can turn this beast around, but I've just about given up on playing BJ period.




If you really expect to win playing BJ then the beast of burden is you.
teddys
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December 5th, 2011 at 9:05:26 PM permalink
Been there, brother. Not much you can except keep playing proper strategy, lower your limits, or learn disciplined counting/bet spreading. I can commiserate - have had it just as bad if not worse.
"Dice, verily, are armed with goads and driving-hooks, deceiving and tormenting, causing grievous woe." -Rig Veda 10.34.4
Headlock
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February 2nd, 2012 at 10:02:01 AM permalink
I'm really starting to hate blackjack. Last weekend playing a $10 min game, 6 deck shoe. I get a pair of 4's with $10 bet, against dealer 5. I have a positive count, remaining deck is ten rich, so I feel pretty good with the split, hoping for 5, 6 7 or ace so I can double. Well, I get another 4, split again and then draw queens on every one. Dealer shows a ten and draws a 4.
rozer2012
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February 2nd, 2012 at 9:46:21 PM permalink
I have never played it
1BB
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February 3rd, 2012 at 3:45:49 AM permalink
Quote: Headlock

I'm really starting to hate blackjack. Last weekend playing a $10 min game, 6 deck shoe. I get a pair of 4's with $10 bet, against dealer 5. I have a positive count, remaining deck is ten rich, so I feel pretty good with the split, hoping for 5, 6 7 or ace so I can double. Well, I get another 4, split again and then draw queens on every one. Dealer shows a ten and draws a 4.



I was going to joke that you should have doubled down on the third 14 but I feel your pain.

On January 2nd I caught the monster count that we all dream about. I was playing 2 spots at 75% of my max bet and lost 5 deals in a row for a total of 10 hands. Those few minutes put me under water for almost the entire month. It could have been worse as I was contemplating betting my full max on each hand. Although I have the bankroll for it, I decided to stick to my 75% strategy.

Why were you betting table minimum in a positive count?
Many people, especially ignorant people, want to punish you for speaking the truth. - Mahatma Ghandi
Tiltpoul
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February 3rd, 2012 at 4:12:09 AM permalink
Not to derail my own thread, but the variance in BJ has now turned its ugly head into Pai Gow Poker for me.

Update on BJ: DD is still treating me awful, but 6-deck has stabilized a bit. I played a little bit this past weekend, and actually did okay. I had a nice run going for a bit before the cards started to turn. I decided to get up before heading into negative territory (monetarily, not count).

However, most of my past weekend I spent playing Pai Gow Poker. Playing one hand, avg bet $20 + $5 on Fortune Side bet, nearly always at a full table, I saw ONE person get ONE straight flush... no other envy hands ANYWHERE. I played roughly 8 hours before I got my first full house, and only had a handful of flushes and straights in the meantime. When I was playing EZ Pai Gow, I was also playing the insurance bet, and would get small pairs with nothing up. The KILLER hand though, I probably saw it at least 6 times (possibly more) was A-A-6-4-2, with 10-9 in the low hand. It actually became a joke, as I would tell the dealer that was the most common hand I was getting. One time I actually managed A-A with 8-6 in low.

I know the bonus side bet is a sucker bet, so don't lecture me on that. However, it usually doesn't KILL me either.... I guess variance has a way of getting back at ya....
"One out of every four people are [morons]"- Kyle, South Park
RoyalBJ
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February 3rd, 2012 at 2:09:25 PM permalink
Quote: Tiltpoul

I know the bonus side bet is a sucker bet, so don't lecture me on that. However, it usually doesn't KILL me either.... I guess variance has a way of getting back at ya....

Well, not so fast, I think Lucky Lucky and Shortie - first 2 cards score 8 or less- are player's blackjack side bets (I found them both at Gold Coast casino, Las Vegas.)
BigJer
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October 25th, 2012 at 12:13:09 PM permalink
First, sorry to bump this old thread.

Two, I've been on this losing streak for the past few months. Yes I know that I have been losing because I keep a diary. The only thing I can say is things will turn around and I will get the money back with interest. But as far as the losing streak it can get demoralizing; believe me I get! lol.

Also, even the highly trained pros go through this. The Church Team - of Holy Rollers fame - went through a brutal losing period before the winning streak they went on as showed in the movie. But they stuck it out and wound up winning a lot of money.

One thing that was mentioned was to play at lower limit tables. It's actually a good idea. It gives you the chance to really check your game without the nervousness of playing larger stakes. And it will reduce your loses if you are still on negative variance. Speaking of your game do you have CVBJ? It's probably the MOST essential aspect of your training that will improve and check your game. It's about $90 and is worth every bit as you will be getting that money back fairly soon.

Make sure you change casinos, if you can. Sometimes the change can help things for some strange reason.

Hope this helps.
The Terror of Casinos.
1BB
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October 25th, 2012 at 12:22:44 PM permalink
If all aspects of your game are up to par and the rules haven't changed don't worry about it. We all have brutal losses sometimes for weeks or months.
Many people, especially ignorant people, want to punish you for speaking the truth. - Mahatma Ghandi
MangoJ
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October 25th, 2012 at 12:53:16 PM permalink
Quote: Tiltpoul

I would normally post this as a blog post, except I'm sure more people feel this way...

For about the past year, Blackjack has been absolutely killer to me. It doesn't matter the rules (S17, H17, RSA or not, etc). It doesn't matter how many decks, although Double Deck is just outright cruel to me. It usually doesn't matter what decision I make, it won't make a difference. I cannot win a significant amount playing BJ anymore.



You aren't recently playing Latvian online BJ, are you ?
teddys
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October 25th, 2012 at 3:19:56 PM permalink
The thing I hate most about losing streaks (video poker, BJ, or otherwise) is the negative attitude that comes with it. Everything negative around you becomes more pronounced; the casino atmosphere, the smoke, the announcements on the P.A... Also, you feel like a total degenerate. (Not that I'm not otherwise...)
"Dice, verily, are armed with goads and driving-hooks, deceiving and tormenting, causing grievous woe." -Rig Veda 10.34.4
BigJer
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October 25th, 2012 at 3:22:23 PM permalink
Quote: teddys

The thing I hate most about losing streaks (video poker, BJ, or otherwise) is the negative attitude that comes with it. Everything negative around you becomes more pronounced; the casino atmosphere, the smoke, the announcements on the P.A... Also, you feel like a total degenerate. (Not that I'm not otherwise...)



You are so right on that.
The Terror of Casinos.
AxiomOfChoice
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October 25th, 2012 at 10:04:18 PM permalink
EDIT: Sorry for the extremely late reply; I didn't realize that I was quoting a thread from several months ago. I'm replacing my reply with this...
kewlj
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October 25th, 2012 at 11:32:42 PM permalink
Quote: BigJer



One thing that was mentioned was to play at lower limit tables. It's actually a good idea. It gives you the chance to really check your game without the nervousness of playing larger stakes. And it will reduce your loses if you are still on negative variance.
Make sure you change casinos, if you can. Sometimes the change can help things for some strange reason.



Are you suggesting you should play lower limit tables, lower stakes, spreads, top wagers, simply because you are losing? That is absurd. If you have lost a significant portion of your bankroll and need to resize to maintain, a desired RoR, yes, you do it, because you have to. But if you are talking about, dropping down just because you have lost confidence in your game, then you are not prepared mentally for what you are doing.

If you are playing a strong game, things will turn and when they do, if you have cut down, say cut your stakes in half, it will take you twice as long to recover. Again you do this when you absolutely have to because your BR is depleted to the point that you can not play at the RoR you desire, but any kind of thinking about losing less during a losing streak just crossed the line from advantage play to voodoo thinking gambling.

I will agree that although there is no mathematical basis, a change of scenery seems to help often. I am sure it is psychological.


Quote: teddys

The thing I hate most about losing streaks (video poker, BJ, or otherwise) is the negative attitude that comes with it. Everything negative around you becomes more pronounced; the casino atmosphere, the smoke, the announcements on the P.A... Also, you feel like a total degenerate.



Wow, teddys. lol Losing period have never made me feel like a degenerate. I have become pretty good at quickly putting my sessions and days play behind me. At the end of the day, I record my results and run through a quick mental review of the days play and then move on. I will admit that after many, many of these losing days stretching into losing weeks and losing months, negativity begins to creep in and despite your best efforts, life in and out of the casino becomes more of an effort. I have suffered through long downturns in each of the last two years, 2010 and 2011, that lasted for roughly 6 month periods and I play almost every day. I am talking 40,000+ rounds. Despite every effort to stay positive, that can wear you down and when it does, you begin to question everything you KNOW to be true. I like to think that each time you go through these periods and come out on the other side, makes you a little stronger and better prepares you for the next time. I like to think that, but am not sure it is true. lol
Ibeatyouraces
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October 26th, 2012 at 7:27:33 AM permalink
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DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
duffytootx
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October 26th, 2012 at 8:46:44 AM permalink
Very well said kewlj. I am feeling the same pain. I know I count quite well and play near perfect but I seem to get killed recently. My problem is that all casinos that offer blackjack are some distance away, therefore I don't get to play often. My wife and I travel to Las Vegas and ONLY play good games, i.e. single deck at El Cortez, double deck games listed on the Wizard's blackjack survey and of course only games that offer 3:2 blackjacks. I play 2 hands, $15 per with a spread of up to 4X max. They know I count, especially at the EL, but at my age ...... I don't care if they know or not.

My wife plays at the same table with me. She plays perfect basic strategy and I often communicate to her the status of the ace count, a very negative count as well as a very positive count. In our last 3 trips (13 days total) my wife hasn't had a winning session and I have had maybe two. A session for us is 2-3 hours of consecutive play. Whereas we used to win more often than we lost, now we can't seem to win. It is disheartening and makes for a lousy trip. This past trip (last week) was even worse as we saw a horrible show and dinner at a nice restaurant we have frequented for 30+ years was one of the worst I've ever had.

I'm approaching 79 years of age and with travel becoming more difficult for me and with this recent lousy run of cards taking all the fun out of trips, I probably have played my last. Too bad, as I can recall 7-8 trips a year, a lot of fun, good meals and shows and several winning trips. Yes .... many times casinos have backed me off with quick shuffles (twice I was asked to leave) but we just moved on and always found someplace to play. Now with the crappy blackjack rules on the strip (also creeping downtown) and the deteriation of quality wherever we go .... I am done.

However, I still enjoy reading all of my fellow members exploits and will continue to do so.
BigJer
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October 26th, 2012 at 10:15:27 AM permalink
Quote: kewlj

Are you suggesting you should play lower limit tables, lower stakes, spreads, top wagers, simply because you are losing? That is absurd. If you have lost a significant portion of your bankroll and need to resize to maintain, a desired RoR, yes, you do it, because you have to. But if you are talking about, dropping down just because you have lost confidence in your game, then you are not prepared mentally for what you are doing.



In a sense yes. Just to go to the lower limit tables to concentrate more on your game without actually having to worry about the money as much. Or better yet go home and practice on the software.
The Terror of Casinos.
Tiltpoul
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October 26th, 2012 at 4:39:39 PM permalink
So I realize I haven't been on the forum for a while, so it's kind of nice to see an old thread of mine getting resurrected...

I continue to have such negative variance, though I've switched to craps mostly (since PGP hasn't really turned around at all for me). It really doesn't matter what I play right now; if I have money out, I cannot win. I need to switch back to live poker, but my job is requiring most of my focus, and I need games that I don't really need to think too much.

Luckily, I've been really busy with work, so gambling is kind of a once or twice a month thing for me now. I haven't taken a major gambling trip in a while. I don't think I probably will until at least January, and even then, it might just have to wait until May.
"One out of every four people are [morons]"- Kyle, South Park
teddys
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October 27th, 2012 at 3:15:57 PM permalink
Quote: Tiltpoul

So I realize I haven't been on the forum for a while, so it's kind of nice to see an old thread of mine getting resurrected...

I continue to have such negative variance, though I've switched to craps mostly (since PGP hasn't really turned around at all for me). It really doesn't matter what I play right now; if I have money out, I cannot win. I need to switch back to live poker, but my job is requiring most of my focus, and I need games that I don't really need to think too much.

Luckily, I've been really busy with work, so gambling is kind of a once or twice a month thing for me now. I haven't taken a major gambling trip in a while. I don't think I probably will until at least January, and even then, it might just have to wait until May.

Heh. I always seem to be on a losing streak of some kind or another. Comes with the gambling territory. If you just won all the time, it wouldn't be fun, would it?

Recently I've switched to craps only at 10x odds, with max odds on every roll. (P or DP, but usually P). $5 minimums. Have been getting absolutely crushed. Typical of when I move to higher stakes ... :) I do feel better about leaving the 3x4x5x tables behind, but still...

I have had some VERY good variance on video poker lately so I do have some cushion, but damn it would be nice to get a win once in a while.
"Dice, verily, are armed with goads and driving-hooks, deceiving and tormenting, causing grievous woe." -Rig Veda 10.34.4
kewlj
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October 27th, 2012 at 3:28:06 PM permalink
The term losing streak is kind of fuzzy. Technically, any time we are 'off' our all-time high we are on some sort of losing streak (lost more than won, since that point). A card counter, AP blackjack player will only be at his all-time high about 1.5% of the time, so technically 98.5 % of the time, he is on some sort of losing period or streak.
MangoJ
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October 27th, 2012 at 4:23:43 PM permalink
With the same reasoning a card counter is above his all-time low at far more than 1.5%, so technically he is on a "winning streak".

This immediatly shows that all "streaks" are a matter of perception, i.e. a depending of how you want to see it. The concept of streaks is pure imagination.
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