Poll

15 votes (35.71%)
2 votes (4.76%)
25 votes (59.52%)

42 members have voted

buzzpaff
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February 12th, 2012 at 10:43:42 PM permalink
" If I was playing at life-affecting stakes, it wouldn't even be a question for me whether to put down $5,000 to win $500,000 (2% of the time) "

More like 0.0002 %
P90
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February 12th, 2012 at 11:05:37 PM permalink
Quote: buzzpaff

Math is not my long suit but if you put up $200 each time and win $2000 12.5% of the time.


Wait, donk on my part, took percentage instead of division. That's $200 to win $2,000, 1/6 of the time.
The next one is right though, don't know where that came from.

Quote: buzzpaff

And usually full backers want 80% of the purse or higher, unless you have a real chump. One willing to put out $2000 total for a chance of winning $1000.


Oh. Maybe you want 80% of the purse and full makeup, too? How about 99%? If I wanted that, I'd long be on some loser backer website where slot-playing chumps are backing -90% ROI aggrodonks with highway robbery arrangements hoping to catch the next Nurmacher.


Quote: buzzpaff

More like 0.0002 %

So now you're backing up.
Not so easy to be confident when it's your money to be put on the line, is it?

The deal for big players is at most 50% and no makeup, BTW.
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buzzpaff
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February 12th, 2012 at 11:14:56 PM permalink
" Wait, donk on my part, took percentage instead of division. That's $200 to win $2,000, 1/6 of the time."

Yu are just digger a deeper hole. Not just with that 50% backers bullshit. But lets look at your example.

You win 1 in 6 so we have 800 profit on 1200 investment. Than is 66% return on investment. So even if I went for 50%. I would make 16% return on my investment. Not 16 percent a year but 16% every 6 events LOL

So you tre willing to give up that 16% so you won't have to put any of your own money LOL DUMB !!!
P90
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February 12th, 2012 at 11:41:16 PM permalink
Quote: buzzpaff

Yu are just digger a deeper hole. Not just with that 50% backers bullshit. But lets look at your example.


I checked some recent offers and the real deal is indeed more like 80%... to the player. Only if there is makeup, without makeup it's usually still just 50%.

That's the deal serious players get. Lagtard horses with a few wins to countless losses can indeed be only offered 20%, but their backers are gambling and they know it, could as well put it on a real horse. Wonder if you can teach a horse to play poker.

Quote: buzzpaff

You win 1 in 6 so we have 800 profit on 1200 investment. Than is 66% return on investment. So even if I went for 50%. I would make 16% return on my investment. Not 16 percent a year but 16% every 6 events LOL
So you tre willing to give up that 16% so you won't have to put any of your own money LOL DUMB !!!


Yeah, I'll give that 16% up in a heartbeat. Backing is not a scam, it's supposed to be good for both parties.

Why would I take it? Because all I know for sure is I got that kind of ROI in the past. I have no way of knowing if I keep getting it, can go higher, can go lower. Need a good run of cards to get to the final table, when I get to the final table with any playable stack, I usually make it to HU, then it's a coin toss. But if I'm card-dead, I have to gamble to just try and scrape into the money. Too bad a run of cards, some donk catching trips on the river, and it's nothing. Or the playing field gets tougher, a few strong players and the final table now only means 4th-8th place, not 2nd.

All of these are risks I'm willing to take, but if I don't have to take them, all the better. It can help the play as well if there's no way to go but up.
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FleaStiff
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February 13th, 2012 at 12:18:26 AM permalink
Quote: klimate10

I have always stated that professional poker players are like Big Foot. They only exist in stories. Everyone knows of someone who has seen one, but no one has any real proof of one.
It was also my hypothesis that guys like Phil Ivey and all the supposed "world's best" are either broke or up to something other than playing poker, such as cheating or stealing money.



I will admit that I've always doubted the integrity of some of these much-heralded big money winners who seem to be fronts for various other activities often connected to Banana Republic enterprises.

It reminds of all the "spy gear" sold in catalogs or other such "wanna-be" related enterprises. It often seems more akin to these Zillion Dollar a Plate Hob Nobs with the Glitterati: hire a movie start to attend a party, pay for "inside dope" from some has-been politician with a good press agent, etc.

Sort of a world of "More Hype Than Substance". The guy who drops out of college to become a Vegas bellman is probably more honest than the guy who drops out of college to become a Poker Pro but also needs a press agent and rumor-mongerer in order to sustain The Image.

Those with super duper math skills can play poker for a living as long as their mouths are always open or they can get hired by private wall street funds who pay them to actually make money and keep their yaps shut.

Sure there seems to be some cream skimming by some and some wanna-be will even do well for awhile picking up those nickles in front of the steam roller, but eventually the inevitable happens and Hype is exposed as hype, endorsements are exposed as purchased, Famous Party Guest admits to being a paid shill ... and life goes on with Talent Agencies making all the money.

Or to quote Beth Raynier, a professional gambler is someone who is fat, dresses like its still the fifties, lives with his mother and only has friends who are other forty-five year old mommas boys that have run books all their lives, but never read one.
P90
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February 13th, 2012 at 12:56:18 AM permalink
Quote: FleaStiff

Those with super duper math skills can play poker for a living as long as their mouths are always open or they can get hired by private wall street funds who pay them to actually make money and keep their yaps shut.


And what product does wall street produce?
The same product as poker players - moving money between hands. Just like poker players bet on hands, investment gamblers bankers bet on securities. The security holds up at showdown, good, split the profits into dividends and bonuses. The security doesn't hold up, too bad, at least it wasn't your own money.

Sure there's more money in the wall street world than in the poker world, and a good poker player can graduate to investment gambling. But there will always be those who do not graduate, or choose not to graduate, or simply do better in poker, because the skillsets are actually very different.

Certainly you can argue that investments into industry and commerce help the economy and all about starting capital... yes, there is that. But "investing" in housing, gold, currencies, and that's what most "investments" are today, is no entrepreneurship - it's just glorified gambling.
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boymimbo
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February 13th, 2012 at 6:36:57 AM permalink
Wall street provides people a way to invest in companies and to give them capital. It's a very important facility in capitalism for companies to raise money for their operations and capital projects.

Poker players would represent one particular stock, and the money given to them is used right away to fund their operation at a particular tournament. And if the player loses or walks away with your investment, you have absolutely no recourse. Companies that you invest in usually are a going concern, and the chance of their going bankrupt is much smaller than a Poker player getting into the money. The odds that gold, for example, becomes valueless, is zero. But taking a loss on investment, sure.
----- You want the truth! You can't handle the truth!
P90
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February 13th, 2012 at 6:54:13 AM permalink
Quote: boymimbo

It's a very important facility in capitalism for companies to raise money for their operations and capital projects.
...
The odds that gold, for example, becomes valueless, is zero. But taking a loss on investment, sure.


Now, there are two completely separate acts being discussed here.

Investment in company stock provides companies with capital.
"Investment" in tulips, gold, horses, pre-existing housing, poker players, foreign currencies is just gambling.

The difference is fundamental. Genuine investments are intended for, and, when successful, directly result in creating additional value. Gambling "investments" don't, you are only betting on shifts in relative values. Wall street has been mostly engaging in the latter before, after, and especially during the 2008 crisis.
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duffytootx
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February 13th, 2012 at 8:51:47 AM permalink
mrjjj

I agree with you ... it is a grind. I (luckily) eaked out a meager living in LV for a little more than a year. Damn, it was work. Had to take advantage of every opportunity i.e. dealers flashing hole cards, dealer at the Fremont tipping me off when he had a stiff (still don't know why), dealers that overpay because they can't count or are new and nervous (don't you just love these guys). But I got barred from 3 places just prior to heading back home and it was getting tougher every day to find a weak dealer. Back then poker wasn't big and many casinos didn't have more than 5 or 6 tables, some less than that. Majority of players were locals that only played the nuts.

It was easier making a living with a legit job. Maybe not as glamorous but at least provided some benefits. Hell, when I gambled, I didn't even buy car insurance, not to mention any other type of insurance. It was a good thing I was single during this time.

I go back twice a year (with my wife) win a little or like most of us, lose a little. It is fun now .... it wasn't fun back when.

JB
zippyboy
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February 13th, 2012 at 4:47:27 PM permalink
Quote: klimate10

A few years ago, I came in third in the WSOP main event. I've made 4 final tables at the WPT. Came in second on all 4.


A few years ago? I was curious who you were, so I went back in the records of every WSOP ME back to 1990 and there's no 3rd place finisher who also placed 2nd in 4 WPT events. Even including WSOP Europe. According to the official websites. If you want to keep your anonymity, I understand, but you must've realized this was easy to check out.
"Poker sure is an easy game to beat if you have the roll to keep rebuying."
klimate10
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February 13th, 2012 at 4:48:54 PM permalink
I was making a sarcastic joke.
charlie21
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March 1st, 2012 at 1:15:20 AM permalink
Yes professional gamblers exist, but all the ones I know are Blackjack players. I know of no professional poker players.

By the standards of those who are good at blackjack, I'm on the low end having made only $35,000 after playing about 2500 hours, so that is not quite $14/hour. At about 100 hand per hour that translates into about 14 cents per hand advantage, at a 1.5% edge, that implies my average bet is around

0.14/ 1.5% = $9.33 per hand

which after 2500 hours of play is over $2 million in total bets wagered.

But 9.33 is my average bet, but I vary my bet based on the advantage I have over the house which is determined through card counting.

I have been barred from play in several casinos and harrassed once through a false arrest. I've been 86'd (not allowed to return to property without threat of getting arrested for trespassing), flat bet (prevented from changing my bets), back roomed (forcibly interrogated, and illegally I might add), backed off (told that I couldn't play blackjack anymore, but could play slot machines), half-shoed (a counter measure by the casinos to make it difficult to gain advantage through card counting), and preferential shuffled (a maneuver by the casino to discourage card counting), and various other forms of intimidation despite my relatively small hourly win rate....

My friends who are pros make in the ball park of $100,000 a year playing blackjack. I know one professor of mathematics and department chair who made $250,000 on the side playing blackjack over the last decade. His lifelong hourly win rate is in the ballpark of $200 / hour. He's been barred from many casinos....

I know of no poker pros personally. I found this discussion on the internet because I got into a dispute with a neighbor insisting that I should learn Poker. So far I've only found reasons to never attempt to make money playing poker because the statistics are not transparent and reliable. The statistics in blackjack by comparison can be determined with incredible precision. For example, if you play a standard 6-deck game with 84% penetration, using a high-low counting system, betting $10 to $100, the hourly expectation is $16 with a standard deviation of about $400. Those are numbers you can take to the bank and the casinos know it.


By way of contrast, there are no reliable statistics for poker. All I hear are mostly anecdotes and stories of big winners. Even lotteries have big winners, so I'm not that amazed there are big poker winners.

I suspect there are people who can make a living at Poker, but without the reassurance of statistics, I've decided it is a gamble and not a calculated risk like blackjack. I appreciate hearing the skepticism about pro poker. It is refreshing to hear!

Regarding being a pro in other games, there used to be people who could make a living playing electronic video poker in the casinos. Even though the games had a house edge, if one played a good enough game to reduce the house edge and then overcame the house edge via hustling promotions and cash back, etc. one could make a modest living at video poker. But I suppose those days are mostly gone....

The other non-card counting techniques are: hole card reading, shuffle tracking -- but these are hard to do. Promotion hustling can make money, but this is hard to do regularly.
FleaStiff
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March 1st, 2012 at 4:02:25 AM permalink
I would think professional poker players might well exist but imagine they would have to both travel and use multiple identities. Good solid skills, constantly shifting pools of players, when anyone starts to talk about their skills, they quietly move on.

I'm told there are several in Vegas but while they claim to be professional poker players it seems more likely they are professional nightclubbers and that means their poker skills are either imaginary or funded by a trust fund.
1BB
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March 1st, 2012 at 4:24:30 AM permalink
Quote: charlie21

Yes professional gamblers exist, but all the ones I know are Blackjack players. I know of no professional poker players.

By the standards of those who are good at blackjack, I'm on the low end having made only $35,000 after playing about 2500 hours, so that is not quite $14/hour. At about 100 hand per hour that translates into about 14 cents per hand advantage, at a 1.5% edge, that implies my average bet is around

0.14/ 1.5% = $9.33 per hand

which after 2500 hours of play is over $2 million in total bets wagered.

But 9.33 is my average bet, but I vary my bet based on the advantage I have over the house which is determined through card counting.

I have been barred from play in several casinos and harrassed once through a false arrest. I've been 86'd (not allowed to return to property without threat of getting arrested for trespassing), flat bet (prevented from changing my bets), back roomed (forcibly








interrogated, and illegally I might add), backed off (told that I couldn't play blackjack anymore, but could play slot machines), half-shoed (a counter measure by the casinos to make it difficult to gain advantage through card counting), and preferential shuffled (a maneuver by the casino to discourage card counting), and various other forms of intimidation despite my relatively small hourly win rate....

My friends who are pros make in the ball park of $100,000 a year playing blackjack. I know one professor of mathematics and department chair who made $250,000 on the side playing blackjack over the last decade. His lifelong hourly win rate is in the ballpark of $200 / hour. He's been barred from many casinos....

I know of no poker pros personally. I found this discussion on the internet because I got into a dispute with a neighbor insisting that I should learn Poker. So far I've only found reasons to never attempt to make money playing poker because the statistics are not transparent and reliable. The statistics in blackjack by comparison can be determined with incredible precision. For example, if you play a standard 6-deck game with 84% penetration, using a high-low counting system, betting $10 to $100, the hourly expectation is $16 with a standard deviation of about $400. Those are numbers you can take to the bank and the casinos know it.


By way of contrast, there are no reliable statistics for poker. All I hear are mostly anecdotes and stories of big winners. Even lotteries have big winners, so I'm not that amazed there are big poker winners.

I suspect there are people who can make a living at Poker, but without the reassurance of statistics, I've decided it is a gamble and not a calculated risk like blackjack. I appreciate hearing the skepticism about pro poker. It is refreshing to hear!

Regarding being a pro in other games, there used to be people who could make a living playing electronic video poker in the casinos. Even though the games had a house edge, if one played a good enough game to reduce the house edge and then overcame the house edge via hustling promotions and cash back, etc. one could make a modest living at video poker. But I suppose those days are mostly gone....

The other non-card counting techniques are: hole card reading, shuffle tracking -- but these are hard to do. Promotion hustling can make money, but this is hard to do regularly.



That's an awful lot of heat for such a low level of play. What gives? I'd love to hear some of your stories. Start with the false arrest and the back rooming.

Laurence Fishburne back roomed me once or was it Lawrence Welk?
Many people, especially ignorant people, want to punish you for speaking the truth. - Mahatma Ghandi
EvenBob
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March 1st, 2012 at 5:55:35 AM permalink
Quote: charlie21

For example, if you play a standard 6-deck game with 84% penetration, .



84%? What planet do you find that on? If you
can get 65% you're doing well. Any casino
that has a problem with counters would fire a
dealer for doing 84%. Using a low pen is the
most used tactic casinos have for dealing with
counters.

There are some poker pro's. Cathy Hulbert is
one, and in the book Gambling Wizards she
admits most of her money comes from playing
against Middle Eastern men in SoCal poker
rooms. They can't tolerate losing to a woman,
so they stay in the game when they should
fold just to give her a hard time. Their macho
ego's are her edge. But she's a rarity, most
players don't have that kind of advantage.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
1BB
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March 1st, 2012 at 6:34:49 AM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

84%? What planet do you find that on? If you
can get 65% you're doing well. Any casino
that has a problem with counters would fire a
dealer for doing 84%. Using a low pen is the
most used tactic casinos have for dealing with
counters.

There are some poker pro's. Cathy Hulbert is
one, and in the book Gambling Wizards she
admits most of her money comes from playing
against Middle Eastern men in SoCal poker
rooms. They can't tolerate losing to a woman,
so they stay in the game when they should
fold just to give her a hard time. Their macho
ego's are her edge. But she's a rarity, most
players don't have that kind of advantage.



The planet Foxwoods. The 8 deck games on the main floor have 85%-90% penetration. The 6 deck games in the high limit rooms have 80%-85% pen. If anyone needs the rules or playing conditions, I'll be happy to provide them.
Many people, especially ignorant people, want to punish you for speaking the truth. - Mahatma Ghandi
WongBo
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March 1st, 2012 at 6:46:06 AM permalink
1BB is absolutely correct.
I was just emailing someone about the rules, here they are:

It is S17, DAS4, NRSA, LS, 80%+ deep
The thing at Foxwoods is that the tables are usually packed, $25 min.
Sometimes as low as $10 on slow days.
On the upside you can Wong in and out with very little worry.
They have 6 deck for 50-3000, or 100-6000
You can even go 100-10000 upstairs
In a bet, there is a fool and a thief. - Proverb.
charlie21
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March 1st, 2012 at 7:02:31 AM permalink
Quote:


That's an awful lot of heat for such a low level of play. What gives? I'd love to hear some of your stories. Start with the false arrest and the back rooming.



First off, I don't consider myself a pro, but a skilled blackjack player. I wanted to be a pro, but casino hostility is making it hard. I do have friends who are pros....

I wish I knew why I get tossed so much. I've been told I give off vibes. Even other patrons have called me out....

False arrest is easy. I was at a Tribal casino. Some places feel they can do what they want since they are a "sovereign" nation. The security goon demanded ID from me when I was cashing out. I was stupid enough to give it. He refused to return it till I followed him to the back room and had a conversation.

I should have just said, "am I charged with a crime, otherwise I'd like to leave." You can't be detained liike that without probable cause. What was I guilty of? Being smart isn't a crime. I should have walked out, but the problem is some Tribal places don't feel they have to respect US citizens.

The casino? Try the one in Traverse City Michigan. The one consolation is I've taken them for about $5,000 and one of my friends took them for $60,000 over 10 visits. :-)

I have been 86'd from Hollywood casino Tunica. They didn't abuse me but they abused someone else and paid dearly:

Quote:


Federal jury awards $729,000 to victim of patron abuse by Hollywood Casino in Tunica

A federal jury returned a verdict totaling over $729,000 in a case involving the abuse of a patron by security personnel at Tunica's Hollywood Casino and a deputy of the Tunica County Sheriff's office.

The victim, who was suspected of counting cards, a lawful activity, but not suspected of any illegal activity, was wrongfully detained by Hollywood Casino employees, who instructed cashiers to refuse to cash the victim's chips unless the victim provided them with his identification.

The victim refused to do so and asked to be paid so that he could leave the casino. Instead, casino employees called the Sheriff's department. Deputy Dornae Mosby responded and demanded identification from the victim, who complied with the deputy's request but instructed the deputy not to show the identification to casino personnel. The deputy ignored this instruction, and allowed casino personnel to take possession of the victim's identification and photocopy it, despite there being no legal basis for so doing. The victim was arrested by Mosby for disorderly conduct. The charge was subsequently dismissed.

The victim sued Hollywood casino, Tunica County, and Deputy Mosby. The jury awarded him $25,000 from Deputy Mosby individually for the violation of his Fourth and Fourteenth Amendment rights to be free of unreasonable searches and seizures. The jury found the casino liable for false arrest, false imprisonment, malicious prosecution, abuse of process, conversion, and trespass to chattels. The final two items involve the wrongful taking of plaintiff's identification by casino personnel. The jury awarded $103,703 in damages to the victim from the casino, plus punitive damages of $600,550.

Case: US District Court for the Northern District of Mississippi, Delta Division -- Civil Action No. 2:06CV204P-A Grosch v. Tunica County et al.

Link to court ruling



buzzpaff
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March 1st, 2012 at 8:01:51 AM permalink
" The victim, who was suspected of counting cards, a lawful activity, but not suspected of any illegal activity, was wrongfully detained by Hollywood Casino employees, who instructed cashiers to refuse to cash the victim's chips unless the victim provided them with his identification. "

I can assume then that the player was trying to cash out less than $10,00 ??
charlie21
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March 1st, 2012 at 8:05:48 AM permalink
Quote:


Any casino
that has a problem with counters would fire a
dealer for doing 84%. Using a low pen is the
most used tactic casinos have for dealing with
counters.



Casinos the deal low penetration games become unattractive to customers. People don't like spending half their time watching the dealer shuffle. Fewer rounds per hour means less money for the casino. If a card counter is giving the casino enough trouble, he can be asked in various ways not to play. Shallow penetration comes at a cost to the casino. If they identify you as a counter, they might decide to single you out and flat bet you, or give you 50% pen while you are seated. But as a general rule, wasting time shuffling just to thwart counters isn't worth the cost in lost revenue from dealing fewer rounds to patrons and irritating them and giving them opportunities to get up and leave the table once they are seated....

Casinos make a lot of money from people trying to count cards but with insufficiently developed skill. Counters also help tables stay alive. so they serve as virtual shills in a way.

After the game was discovered to be beatable in the 1960's, blackjack became a poplular game. It is because it is beatable it is also popular. Casino's waste an inordinate amout of resources trying to thwart counters while allowing real cheats and dealer mistakes to hurt their bottom line. The fact the game is beatable is a marketing point. But if you get under their skin, they'll put a stop to your activity...

75% pen is about the standard. You can find at least that good in many Mississippi and Michigan and Iowa and Minnesota casinos. Atlantic city is not so good. Vegas varies from casino to casino. The Venetian in Las Vegas was OK with about 75%.

Dealer's like getting tips. Many of the smarter ones realize giving good penetration helps them get more tips. This helps perpetuate good penetration.

Finally, it's not in the casinos best interest to be too tight and gouge the customers to death with bad games. Low house edge helps ensure many return customers. There is a saying, you can sheer a sheep many times, but you can only skin it once. Letting a few people win occasionally is good for business and marketing, even letting card counters occasionally win (before showing them the door, that is)....
1BB
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March 1st, 2012 at 8:11:22 AM permalink
Quote: WongBo

1BB is absolutely correct.
I was just emailing someone about the rules, here they are:

It is S17, DAS4, NRSA, LS, 80%+ deep
The thing at Foxwoods is that the tables are usually packed, $25 min.
Sometimes as low as $10 on slow days.
On the upside you can Wong in and out with very little worry.
They have 6 deck for 50-3000, or 100-6000
You can even go 100-10000 upstairs



Unfortunately, all the 8 deck games are H17.
Many people, especially ignorant people, want to punish you for speaking the truth. - Mahatma Ghandi
charlie21
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March 1st, 2012 at 8:15:55 AM permalink
Quote:


I can assume then that the player was trying to cash out less than $10,00



Yes, he was below the CTR and SAR limits ($10,000 for CTR and probably below SAR limits too). He was cashing out for a mere $900. He was getting heat (hostile scrutiny) and decided to leave after only about 20 minutes. The reason this was considered abuse was that he was guilty of no crime and was not under any reporting requirements. Hollywood Tunica staff were just being a bunch of petty thugs. Supposedly a flier was circulating around town to be on the lookout for him.

In my case, I was betting 2 hands of $30 on double deck for an hourly expectation of around $10 per hour when they 86'd me. That's hardly more than making minimum wage. I was just trying to get some free hotels and meals and a little cash. Casinos can be awfullly petty.
EvenBob
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March 1st, 2012 at 8:17:45 AM permalink
When I played BJ, the pen was good until they got nervous
and switched it. Which was all the time.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
DanMahowny
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March 1st, 2012 at 8:21:08 AM permalink
I have 3 friends that consider themselves "card counters", but they are really clueless. Hell, they don't even know basic 100% (trust me, their mistakes are not for cover). They all claim to use Hi-Lo, but don't feel the need to convert to a true count- they think they can estimate bet size using the RC alone.

I'll bet for every legit counter, there are dozens of knuckleheads like my buddies. The casinos love these guys.
"I don't have a gambling problem. I have a financial problem."
EvenBob
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March 1st, 2012 at 8:25:11 AM permalink
Quote: DanMahowny

I'll bet for every legit counter, there are dozens of knuckleheads like my buddies. The casinos love these guys.



They say 1 out of 100 can do it correctly..
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
LonesomeGambler
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March 1st, 2012 at 8:51:43 AM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

84%? What planet do you find that on? If you
can get 65% you're doing well. Any casino
that has a problem with counters would fire a
dealer for doing 84%. Using a low pen is the
most used tactic casinos have for dealing with
counters.

It's highly unlikely that you'll find any pro, or even smart amateurs, playing a 65% game if their method of attack is straight counting. 75% is easily found almost anywhere in the country, and 83% is the standard at many big casinos that know that spending all day shuffling is much more costly than lowering a card counter's edge by a fraction of a percent.

The aforementioned sweat shop up north was dealing 92%+ of the cards in their shoe games as standard operating procedure. I played a game there once with 96% of the cards dealt out. This was a brilliant move by the casino, who knew that a variety of rules (for recreational gamblers to hang themselves with, like late surrender and quirky rules regarding splitting) and fewer (and simpler) shuffles = more money. Sure, they make themselves vulnerable to 0.0001% of the gaming population who can exploit these factors, while the average day-to-day gambler is spending more money than ever.
EvenBob
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March 1st, 2012 at 8:57:07 AM permalink
Quote: LonesomeGambler

It's highly unlikely that you'll find any pro, or even smart amateurs, playing a 65% game if their method of attack is straight counting.



I should have qualified that with I meant
65% on double deck games. I don't know
what they do on 6-8 deck shoes, when I played I
always played single and double deck games
only. In Vegas.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
LonesomeGambler
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March 1st, 2012 at 9:25:33 AM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

I should have qualified that with I meant
65% on double deck games. I don't know
what they do on 6-8 deck shoes, when I played I
always played single and double deck games
only. In Vegas.

Pretty accurate, then. 50% is common in DD, but 65% is easily found. 75% is not difficult to get, even in Vegas, but it's rarely a good choice for a counter these days. Hell, I once saw a DD game in North Vegas with over 90% penetration, but... it was in a casino in North Vegas. Try making any money on that!
teddys
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March 1st, 2012 at 10:01:56 AM permalink
Quote: LonesomeGambler

Pretty accurate, then. 50% is common in DD, but 65% is easily found. 75% is not difficult to get, even in Vegas, but it's rarely a good choice for a counter these days.

Why not? Too much heat, or just that the shoe games offer better opportunities?

Edit: As per the title of this thread, I think there are professional gamblers in either one or more of: Blackjack, Poker, Video Poker, Sports/Race betting. Professional Roulette Players? Not so much.
"Dice, verily, are armed with goads and driving-hooks, deceiving and tormenting, causing grievous woe." -Rig Veda 10.34.4
buzzpaff
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March 1st, 2012 at 10:09:07 AM permalink
I more or less agree about pro's, but often find expenses are not accurately reflected.
Especially on venues like WPT, and BJ in general.
98Clubs
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March 1st, 2012 at 10:33:56 AM permalink
I checked CC, Poker, Sporties.

To gambit the sport of Kings, you must be an Ace... cuz Aces beat Kings. JMHA
Some people need to reimagine their thinking.
AcesAndEights
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March 1st, 2012 at 11:10:43 AM permalink
Quote: teddys

Quote: LonesomeGambler

Pretty accurate, then. 50% is common in DD, but 65% is easily found. 75% is not difficult to get, even in Vegas, but it's rarely a good choice for a counter these days.


Why not? Too much heat, or just that the shoe games offer better opportunities?


Too much heat. A lot of DD games in Vegas these days are specifically offered as "counter catchers." A casino will offer numerous shoe games and one juicy-looking DD game, but surveillance is watching DD much more closely and will be on to you quickly if you start spreading even modestly. So you're better off playing the shoe game...they will catch you eventually, but surveillance isn't watching all of these games all the time, they generally have to be called to that game by something suspicious, which requires a competent pit boss who isn't spread too thin.

The above is not based on personal experience, but I have heard it universally from more experienced players. Personally I have only played shoe games in Vegas, except for one DD game I played at a locals joint. I didn't receive heat there, but I was only spreading $10-$60, which even at DD can fly under the radar. Plus it was crowded with just okay pen (maybe .9 cut off), so it wasn't really profitable anyway.
"So drink gamble eat f***, because one day you will be dust." -ontariodealer
AcesAndEights
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March 1st, 2012 at 11:17:21 AM permalink
Quote: charlie21

Regarding being a pro in other games, there used to be people who could make a living playing electronic video poker in the casinos. Even though the games had a house edge, if one played a good enough game to reduce the house edge and then overcame the house edge via hustling promotions and cash back, etc. one could make a modest living at video poker. But I suppose those days are mostly gone....


If you listen to Bob Dancer he makes it sound like it's still viable, but you have to have an appropriate bankroll (just like BJ) and you have to aggressively play the comps, promos, drawings, etc. to stay ahead, in addition to scouting for the best paytables and playing perfect (or near-perfect) strategy. Honestly I don't know how he does it being so well-knows, seems like the casinos would catch on pretty quick and bar him.
"So drink gamble eat f***, because one day you will be dust." -ontariodealer
ThatDonGuy
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March 1st, 2012 at 11:20:04 AM permalink
Quote: charlie21

Regarding being a pro in other games, there used to be people who could make a living playing electronic video poker in the casinos. Even though the games had a house edge, if one played a good enough game to reduce the house edge and then overcame the house edge via hustling promotions and cash back, etc. one could make a modest living at video poker. But I suppose those days are mostly gone....


"Used to be"? I get the impression from the VPFree group at Yahoo Groups that there are still a number of people who consider themselves professional VP players. Of course, the tendency of games with a positive EV to be at $1/credit and up (and of course they play 5 credits at a time to get the 800x (or progressive) payout for a Royal) means it's a big money player's game now.
hook3670
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March 1st, 2012 at 11:47:08 AM permalink
One thing I do not understand mathematically(and I am good at math but no where what Wiz and some others are), if you play perfect VP or BJ and turn the advantage into your favor by about 1%, how can you still make a living. That is 1% over the long run, however one defines that. I have played I think intermediate strategy at VP on JoB for five years and NEVER hit a royal flush. I have played BJ where the house edge is supposedly 1% or there about and have gotten a $1000 bankroll destroyed in an hour(and yes I played correct strategy). To be a professional means never having a horrible streak unless your bank account is unlimited. Is that possible? I mean if I made say $100,000 in a year gambling and then got wiped out out the next year, does that mean I need to retire? Bob Dancer says he has had one losing year since 1994. I am not saying he is untruthful, but that has to count comps and other things. Just because a house game is a tiny bit in your favor doesnt mean it works out for you that way year after year, or are there legitimate ways that it will.
1BB
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March 1st, 2012 at 12:01:35 PM permalink
Quote: hook3670

One thing I do not understand mathematically(and I am good at math but no where what Wiz and some others are), if you play perfect VP or BJ and turn the advantage into your favor by about 1%, how can you still make a living. That is 1% over the long run, however one defines that. I have played I think intermediate strategy at VP on JoB for five years and NEVER hit a royal flush. I have played BJ where the house edge is supposedly 1% or there about and have gotten a $1000 bankroll destroyed in an hour(and yes I played correct strategy). To be a professional means never having a horrible streak unless your bank account is unlimited. Is that possible? I mean if I made say $100,000 in a year gambling and then got wiped out out the next year, does that mean I need to retire? Bob Dancer says he has had one losing year since 1994. I am not saying he is untruthful, but that has to count comps and other things. Just because a house game is a tiny bit in your favor doesnt mean it works out for you that way year after year, or are there legitimate ways that it will.



If you are referring to just basic strategy in blackjack then you cannot win over time. The house edge is always there. Losing $1000 in an hour is not at all uncommon. Did you over bet?
Many people, especially ignorant people, want to punish you for speaking the truth. - Mahatma Ghandi
AcesAndEights
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March 1st, 2012 at 1:00:47 PM permalink
Quote: hook3670

One thing I do not understand mathematically(and I am good at math but no where what Wiz and some others are), if you play perfect VP or BJ and turn the advantage into your favor by about 1%, how can you still make a living. That is 1% over the long run, however one defines that. I have played I think intermediate strategy at VP on JoB for five years and NEVER hit a royal flush. I have played BJ where the house edge is supposedly 1% or there about and have gotten a $1000 bankroll destroyed in an hour(and yes I played correct strategy). To be a professional means never having a horrible streak unless your bank account is unlimited. Is that possible? I mean if I made say $100,000 in a year gambling and then got wiped out out the next year, does that mean I need to retire? Bob Dancer says he has had one losing year since 1994. I am not saying he is untruthful, but that has to count comps and other things. Just because a house game is a tiny bit in your favor doesnt mean it works out for you that way year after year, or are there legitimate ways that it will.


Pro gamblers take a calculated risk - a big part of being a pro, compared to just a skilled amateur, is knowing what the risk level is given you bankroll and betting levels, and calibrating that so that you have the highest possible EV with the highest risk you are willing to accept.

As has been said over and over, you have to have a HUGE bankroll (100K+) to really make it as a pro gambler no matter what your game is. Even playing with an edge, you can lose over an entire year. It has happened and will continue to happen even to pros.
"So drink gamble eat f***, because one day you will be dust." -ontariodealer
LonesomeGambler
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March 1st, 2012 at 1:13:28 PM permalink
Quote: teddys

Why not? Too much heat, or just that the shoe games offer better opportunities?

Edit: As per the title of this thread, I think there are professional gamblers in either one or more of: Blackjack, Poker, Video Poker, Sports/Race betting. Professional Roulette Players? Not so much.

The very short answer is yes, heat. Good DD games in Vegas are almost always watched much, much more closely than the shoe games, so you stand a much better chance of getting backed off in a very short period of time. Also, many good DD games in Vegas are at places where you don't stand a chance to make any money anyway. DD at El Cortez is always 75%, but if you can make any substantial money there, then congrats! There are places on the Strip that offer higher limits on good DD games (like Aria), but these are also the places that you are the most likely to get immediately 86'ed in for using your brain, not to mention the fact that they aggressively flyer and add players to surveillance network databases.

The best way for a counter in Vegas to make money is to play short, aggressive, anonymous sessions all over town, in games of varying quality. Good rules and penetration mean nothing if you have to camp out for 8 hours and get your face plastered on flyers in every casino in the area. As a pro counter in Vegas is fond of saying: "quantity, not quality."

Also, the fact that this thread contains a poll cracks me up. Let's just say that the more people that select options 2 or 3, the better.
hook3670
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March 1st, 2012 at 1:20:37 PM permalink
Well i did bet a bit over my head and I probably way overbet toward the end when I was chewing nails. But thats what I am getting at you have to start with a fairly huge bankroll AND be successful quickly. Even playing with an edge, you can easily lose over a year or even two. I mean I am an amatuer and I have had two positive years in row, however modest they might have been(Having said that, i don't want anyone thinking i am ahead over my lifetime, i am still WAY WAY in the red!). So if a stiff like me who plays basic trategy but is no expert can actually beat the casino in a couple of years, I find it very hard to believe even an expert with a slight advantage can win year after year against a casino and not run into a bad streak. Now if you are counting return on investment, that is a lot easier to come out ahead. One year I lost about $5,000 but became diamond at Harrah's and with hotels and other comps I actually came out "ahead" a couple of thousand.
TIMSPEED
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March 1st, 2012 at 2:27:10 PM permalink
Bob dancer was a successful dBA prior to video poker...monetarily he wasn't/isnt poor...so he had the bankroll already...even at best, a 3% advantage still won't make much more than minimum wage with $1M coin-in per year
Gambling calls to me...like this ~> http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4Nap37mNSmQ
FleaStiff
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March 1st, 2012 at 3:34:50 PM permalink
Now he seems to be a successful lecturer, columnist, and perhaps still a successful VP player. These things provide cushions to bad years. Perhaps he also manufactures Fortune Cookies with a slip that reads "don't have a bad year".

It seems some people play a ton of blackjack all over the place not particularly trying to hide per se but surely not particularly trying to be obvious counters. The people seem to do well when you factor in meals and rooms and often do pretty well on the straight cash basis if they are not too obvious or too greedy. A sheep perhaps but shorn rather than skinned, even though his lack of heat is often just a matter of luck and short sessions wherein he is seen to depart before anyone gets too angry. I doubt these types ever play at Southpoint.

Some players seem to risk more heat and therefore do encounter it. I guess there is a balancing point. Going to a smaller casino or just a different one might make a difference since as someone upthread said "would be counters are fodder and really good counters are Free Shills each bring in some sheep that we not only shear but also skin". A professional BJ player just has to find a tolerant casino and keep his eye on the drover's shears!
charlie21
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March 1st, 2012 at 9:40:45 PM permalink
Quote:


One thing I do not understand mathematically(and I am good at math but no where what Wiz and some others are), if you play perfect VP or BJ and turn the advantage into your favor by about 1%, how can you still make a living. That is 1% over the long run, however one defines that. I have played I think intermediate strategy at VP on JoB for five years and NEVER hit a royal flush. I have played BJ where the house edge is supposedly 1% or there about and have gotten a $1000 bankroll destroyed in an hour(and yes I played correct strategy).



A 1% edge implies that in the short term (say 1 hand) you have on average a 49.5% chance of losing!!! Over the course of an hour of playing 100 hands it is only marginally better. The game I described earlier with a mean expectation of $16 and a standard deviation of $400 that means on average after an hour of play you have a 34.1% chance of being ahead $416 (16 +400) or more, but you all so have a 34.1 chance of being down $384 (16 - 400) or more. In reality this is only an approximation since the normal distribution is inappropriate for playing, but hopefully this illustrates the point.

The long run is when your expectation will overcome several standard deviations of bad luck. This happens because the expectation moves linearly with the number of hours played ( say you play 10,000 hours with an hourly expectation of $16, your expectation is $16 * 10,000 = $160,000), whereas the standard deviation increases by the square root of the hours played ( say you played 100 hours with a standard deviation of $400, the standard deviation over 1000 hours is $400 * sqrt(10,000) = $400 * 100 = $40,000.

So after 10,000 hours of play, most card counters can expect to win $160,000 plus or minus $40,000 of standard deviation given the game I described earlier. That gives an idea of what the long run really means.

In video poker, say Jacks or Better, Royal Flushes appear somewhere around every 40,000 hands assuming you have average luck. If your luck is bad, well, maybe 120,000 hands isn't out of the question, that would be about a month of full-time play!

That's why one needs a suffiicient bank roll to endure the downswings that can last several hundred hours. A downswing is measured in standard deviations from the mean.

I had a bad run where I was down $7,000 from my all time high of about $17,000. I didn't get out of the rut until about 1000 hours of play. Relative to others, I hate betting big, but think if my bankroll winnngs were $170,000 instead of $17,000. I'd have to be digging out of $70,000 hole! I probably had at least two standard deviations of bad luck ( in the 98 percentile), or maybe I'm just not that good or both. Anyway, I survived. Was it enough to cover my travelling and living expenses and time taken away from other activities? No, but at least in terms of the time at the table, it was a winning record.

Blackjack and Video Poker have transparent statistics (as you can hopefully see), but live poker? What is the hourly win rate of a poker pro and under what conditions? What is the mean expectation and standard deviation. I don't know. "You gotta know when to hold em, know when to fold em, know when to run." Without adequate statistics for live poker, I prefer to run. :-)
LonesomeGambler
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March 2nd, 2012 at 11:16:00 AM permalink
For the record, Bob Dancer still plays VP on a regular (full-time?) basis, but even he admits that most of his years over the past decade or so would be losing ones if he didn't factor in drawings and giveaways. Basic +EV VP is beyond a grind these days.
teddys
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March 2nd, 2012 at 11:45:06 AM permalink
Quote: LonesomeGambler

For the record, Bob Dancer still plays VP on a regular (full-time?) basis, but even he admits that most of his years over the past decade or so would be losing ones if he didn't factor in drawings and giveaways. Basic +EV VP is beyond a grind these days.

Yep. I was playing at the South Point on one of their multiple point days (player advantage) and the place was packed with pros. They are a hoot to listen to. One guy: "I won three cars at Stations last week. But I'm still waiting on one since they didn't have the color I wanted."
"Dice, verily, are armed with goads and driving-hooks, deceiving and tormenting, causing grievous woe." -Rig Veda 10.34.4
LonesomeGambler
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March 2nd, 2012 at 12:21:22 PM permalink
Yep, that sounds about right! I certainly couldn't do it, but it must be an interesting profession, to say the least.
TIMSPEED
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March 2nd, 2012 at 1:00:03 PM permalink
All I care is I play a breakeven base game (if you factor in the comps)...the free play...I lose back to them on craps to make me "appear" to be a sucker (The freeplay is a solid 2% advantage, which I give back to them; like I said, I just enjoy the "VIP" treament ESPECIALLY being that it's a breakeven play with the comps)
Gambling calls to me...like this ~> http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4Nap37mNSmQ
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