Roulette Results - How many spins do casinos use to determine the unbiasness of a roulette wheel?
So no deal? Would love to start a blog between the two of us for everyone to read about. If after the first 3 years you've missed and given me over $1k. That amount compounded at a money rate of 4% over 18 years would give me enough to pay you twice if you happen to guess right over 18 years. Then taking into account every other dollar along the way compounded accordingly I could buy my unborn child a car in 18 years from this exercise unless I get really UNLUCKY or younger Extremely lucky. I don't I've ever backed a $100 to one long shot let alone a $1000 to one. But then again you could be that lucky.
Deal?
What does the edge matter, if you know you're going to win? It's not even your money.
As for $400,000, it's the most typical size for policies that cover this kind of incident.
If you aren't ready to bet your life, you aren't ready to bet.
Quote: WizardofAusI've already suggested what a bad bet this is in the long run...over a billion hands or over the test of time. But for a 1 progression or for 2 hours it might be a good bet.
No. First off, your language is imprecise. "Good bet" is a subjective term. What you're suggesting is that your system has a high chance of winning in the short term. Even if that's true, that doesn't mean it's a "good bet". Let's say a system has 99% chance of winning $500 and a 1% chance of $58,950 over a week. Does that make it a "good bet" to play for a day? Some would say yes, most would probably say no. Your chances of walking away a net winner are high, but you risk losing way more than you would likely win. So in my book, that's absolutely *not* a "good bet". You should stop using terms like "good bet" right now and start describing exactly what you're actually talking about.
Second, the system with a 99% chance of winning over a week is hypothetical anyway. No betting system gives you odds that good, unless you're willing to risk millions of dollars to win a few dozen.
Quote: WizardOfAus...a ball doesn't have a memory but I think a RNG does have a memory due to the input that the odds are for 37 numbers of any number coming up is 36 to 1. It may not come up in the next spin but an RNG will surely require a number to come up within the next 1,000 spins or even shorter most occurrence.
No, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no! The RNG does exactly what you should expect: it picks random numbers. The software tells the RNG to pick a random number between 1 and 37, and the RNG spits it out. It doesn't know or care what it's picked before. It doesn't have any "requirement" to check results. It's just like rolling a 37-sided die.
Quote: weaselmanThe question actually has been answered. There is no hard number such that more spins than that is automatically considered "long run". Instead, the number of spins is a parameter in a certain formula. Another parameter could be, say, the number of times a given number hits. You plug those two parameters into the formula, and you get a result like "the wheel is unbiased with 99.5% certainty".
The higher the number of spins, the better certainty you get in your answer. For a rough estimate, just a few hundred of spins may be enough. For a more or less "conclusive proof", a few thousand may be required, maybe even a few hundred thousand, depending on the basic hypothesis you are trying to prove.
But what's your point anyway? For the sake of argument, let's say the number you are looking for is 1000 spins. Now what?
Sure, they check the results constantly. If something seems suspicious to them, they'll replace or fix the wheel. How does it help you though?
The trick is, there is no way to tell when exactly the "long run" will begin. What's certain is that it is definitely not going to happen on your next spin.
Get off your high horse weaselman. Most of your words are meaningless. You're one of THOSE GUYS that just loves to put others down.
Ken
Quote: MichaelBluejay
No, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no! The RNG does exactly what you should expect: it picks random numbers. The software tells the RNG to pick a random number between 1 and 37, and the RNG spits it out. It doesn't know or care what it's picked before. It doesn't have any "requirement" to check results. It's just like rolling a 37-sided die.
Thanks for the response MBJ but isn't there an algorithm that says that each number has the same probability of coming up? Doesn't this imply there is some sort of "memory" - I've just noticed a few other threads on this - so I am purely starting from scratch on this and probably have no idea what I am saying - but that's just me with no working knowledge of how an RNG should work - but I would've assumed something like that. So if the algorithm was to say spit out a number between 1-37 without having told it that each number has the same probability of coming out - isn't that the purest form of an RNG?
In my country we have these random cartoon horse races each with a % likelihood of coming up - No. 1 is the favorite at $4 - terrible odds when the probability for it of coming up is only 20.6% - so the house edge is like 20% on that bet - but there are 12 horses with different probabilities - these probabilities must be programmed into the algorithm right? Just like the roulette one would have - it can't be pick any number from 1 to 37 without telling it a few other things right?
1. Take the current time down to a 1/1,000,000 of a second. Or down to whatever you know.
2. Add all the digits together.
3. Output the last digit of the resulting number.
This will give you a RNG with range of 0 to 9. For a range of 1 to 37, you can use a base37 system instead of decimal and add 1 to the output.
In practice it's more convoluted, because microsecond clock is only random in human time scales, for computers a microsecond is a pretty long time. But it's the same principle, you take current time or some other fast-changing value and mash it up so that the output is not recognizable from the input.
Quote: WizardofAusThanks for the response MBJ but isn't there an algorithm that says that each number has the same probability of coming up? Doesn't this imply there is some sort of "memory" -
NO.
NO MEMORY.
NONE.
NONE WHATSOEVER.
This is why a slot machine that has just hit a jackpot is just as likely to hit the jackpot on the very next spin.
That is the whole idea of a random generation. It isn't well... choose something randomly and then test it to see if it conforms with some sort of expectations. If Seven Red hits... that next spin is just as likely to be Seven Red as it was before. And if that means it hits "X" times in a row then so be it. Ain't nothin' telling the RNG to alter its behavior to conform with the views of those who've been watching recently and are convinced that some other number is "due".
Quote: WizardOfAusThanks for the response MBJ but isn't there an algorithm that says that each number has the same probability of coming up?
Yes. Actually, it's just the nature of an RNG that each number has the same probability of coming up. That's why it's called a RANDOM number generator.
Quote: WizardOfAusDoesn't this imply there is some sort of "memory"
No, no, no, no, no, no, no! What is so hard to understand here? This is not rocket science. If you flip a coin, there's no memory. If you roll a die, there's no memory. If you extract numbers from an RNG, there's no memory. All those things are just random, period. It's that freaking simple.
Quote: MichaelBluejay
No, no, no, no, no, no, no! What is so hard to understand here? This is not rocket science. If you flip a coin, there's no memory. If you roll a die, there's no memory. If you extract numbers from an RNG, there's no memory. All those things are just random, period. It's that freaking simple.
Done, sealed, delivered & understood. No further comments from me about an RNG.
Mercury 360 RRS (Random Rotor Speed)
The patented Mercury 360 RRS radomly changes the rotor speed during a game and is designed to protect operators broadcasting a live video stream of their wheels via the internet. To counter the use of electronic clocking devises, on-line casinos currently call ‘no more bets’ as the ball is launched, limiting betting time. However with RRS they are free to call ‘no more bets’ as normal, optimising betting time and improving productivity by up to 20%. Live casinos using their roulette wheels for on-line internet gaming will also benefit from the added security delivered by RRS. With the Mercury 360 RRS casinos can concurrently serve their live and on-line customers with the same roulette wheel providing their desired levels of security and productivity.
Example: Lets say all the roulette numbers were in a hat and I blindly picked one out. Its the #20. I bet $5 on the #20 for one spin.....never bet again and I go home. Is someone going to tell me I just used gamblers fallacy? Odd thing is......some will say YES, some will say NO and some will WAIT to see the general consensus answer and then chime in. (lol)
Ken
Quote: MathExtremistHow do you "use" the Gambler's Fallacy? That's like "using" geocentricity or alchemy. How can you use a theory that's wrong?
Clever way of avoiding the REAL point. I'll tell you what, re-word it however you want to, the question/example stays the SAME.
Ken
Quote: MathExtremistHow do you "use" the Gambler's Fallacy? That's like "using" geocentricity or alchemy. How can you use a theory that's wrong?
I just noticed this >> I said: "Is someone going to tell me I just used gamblers fallacy?"
So why throw the word 'the' into it?.... "The gamblers's fallacy".
I never said that. (not that it matters anyways)
Ken
No. If, however, you think on your way home "I'm coming back next weekend to repeat the experience" then THAT is gambler's fallacy. Attributing your success to your skill instead of sheer chance involves the implication that you have some control over the validity of the next selection from the hat.Quote: mrjjjall the roulette numbers were in a hat and I blindly picked one out. Its the #20. I bet $5 on the #20 for one spin.....never bet again and I go home.
Quote: FleaStiffNo. If, however, you think on your way home "I'm coming back next weekend to repeat the experience" then THAT is gambler's fallacy. Attributing your success to your skill instead of sheer chance involves the implication that you have some control over the validity of the next selection from the hat.
Hmmm, where is the line drawn based on your post? So if I did it only one more time (and never again), the second attempt is gamblers fallacy but not the first?
Ken
If someone chooses to play roulette by placing money on a random number and then loses, this doesn't follow what I would consider to be gamblers fallacy. If that same individual decided to employ a martingale-esque system of betting where he reassured himself that he couldn't lose through his genius methods, I would consider that to be more of gamblers fallacy.
Ken
Now, the times when it might get confusing are when discussing a game that is not fair. For example, let's say you decided to bet on coin flips and the first three times it came up heads. That is not at all unusual so you would have no reason to think that heads or tails is more likely on the next flip. If it gets to 20 heads in a row you are probably looking at a rigged coin so it would be reasonable to expect it will be heads again (the reverse of tails being "due".)
I wonder how easy it is to correct a bias. Is it easier / cheaper to just replace the wheel if bias is suspected?Quote: EdgeLookerMy local casino replaced one of their wheels a couple months ago and this thread has me wondering why now. :)
The wheel that you notices was replaced could have been replaced for a variety of other reasons. I.E. It may have had a wobble, crack, noise, or whatever.
Spinetti's and Gambler's General Store sells 30" wheels in the $6,000 range. That's too expensive for me to own one, but it might be chump change to a casino.
Quote: DJTeddyBearI wonder how easy it is to correct a bias. Is it easier / cheaper to just replace the wheel if bias is suspected?
Not a specialist on roulette wheels at all, but in similar mechanical systems, 99 times of 100 the device would be calibrated, not replaced. Industrial motors and rotating devices in general tend to have balance weights/mounting outright, for instance.
The more common causes of roulette wheel bias are certainly not a mystery to the industry, and it shouldn't take long for a properly qualified mechanic to determine it and repair the wheel, if it's anything like other similar systems. So I would imagine at least the larger establishments with service contracts probably have their biased wheels repaired. And before the bias comes to possible break-even point, too.
