Law Of Large Numbers
December 5th, 2011 at 8:04:26 PM
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Quote: weaselmanBecause it is paranormal. That's what he does.
You think card counting is paranormal.
You think probability is paranormal.
Whatever floats your boat, dude, I'm
outa here...
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
December 5th, 2011 at 8:22:36 PM
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Quote: EvenBobIn Gamblers Fallacy, probability theory says, according to the law of
large numbers, in the long term, averages of independent trials will
tend to approach the expected value. This is very true for the casino,
they deal in nothing but long term outcomes.
But your average player will never even approach anything remotely
like the large number of trials needed to prove the law of large numbers.
We play in the extreme short term, where basically anything can happen.
Realistically, the law of large numbers can't apply to the player. There
are no laws or theories that apply to short term play. The casino can
lump all the players together and get a long term number. On a player
to player basis, however, they're lost. Nothing can apply to the next bet
you make in a game of random outcomes.
Anybody want to guess where I'm going with this?
And as I said from the start, all he wanted out of this was a little attention. He's a lonely person who spends his days posting anonymously on various websites looking for a way to stroke his own ego and to get a rise out of people by posting bigoted, unfounded and ridiculous comments. Fortunately for him we generally oblige. As for him beating roulette, he really wants it to work and he really wants to BELIEVE it works so he keeps banging that drum, waiting for someone to tell him he's on to something. Poor fellow.
Happiness is underrated
December 5th, 2011 at 9:07:18 PM
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Quote: TheNightflyhe really wants to BELIEVE it works
Its not a religion, belief has nothing to do with it.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
December 5th, 2011 at 9:51:24 PM
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If I could beat probability, I'd be a millionaire. Not from playing, but from betting all the people who would put up money to see me do it. I could meet the rigor of all their preconditions, as long as they were fair to me.
But I can't.
But I can't.
There's no secret. Just know what you're talking about before you open your mouth.
December 5th, 2011 at 10:02:13 PM
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Quote: EvenBobIts not a religion, belief has nothing to do with it.
Well, no-one believes you that's for sure.
"Using probability" to beat roulette, considering your previous statements about probability.
That's okay, you can pretend we just don't understand.
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
December 5th, 2011 at 10:16:11 PM
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Quote: thecesspitWell, no-one believes you that's for sure.
All I wanted was a discussion about LLN, what does
belief have to do with anything.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
December 5th, 2011 at 10:27:25 PM
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I don't even believe that.
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
December 6th, 2011 at 2:03:37 AM
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Quote: TheNightflyIn every case and for every spin, it doesn't matter where you put your money or the fact that you MAY win the bet, the house always pays you less than the full value of even money. The house will make money because you will lose (choose wrong) more often than you will win and they will take your money every time you are wrong (over 50% of the time) and pay you 1 to 1 (or the mathematical equivalent) when you are right which will be less than 50% of the time.
I sometimes like to follow the suggestion by a competent author to describe winning at gambling thus: Whenever you lose, you are alone - only you pay in; whenever you win, you have a partner (the House) - he gets paid, too.
December 6th, 2011 at 5:02:51 AM
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Quote: EvenBobYou think card counting is paranormal.
No, card counting is based on (and therefore, explainable by) science, thus, by definition, not paranormal.
Quote:You think probability is paranormal.
No, probability is not a phenomenon, but an abstract mathematical concept. It is neither "normal" nor "paranormal".
I do believe that the ability to predict future events, that do not depend on the events about which information is available is indeed paranormal. It is the definition of clairvoyance.
"When two people always agree one of them is unnecessary"
December 6th, 2011 at 7:26:20 PM
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Quote: weaselmanI do believe that the ability to predict future events,
Weathermen predict future events, all you can do
with random outcomes is guess. Predicting and
guessing are two different things. With a prediction,
you weigh info from multiple sources, campare that
with your experience, and try and be accurate. A
meteorologist will even use computer models.
Prediction is impossible with totally independent
events. You have no reliable information to help
you. Past events do not effect future outcomes,
so all you can do is guess. Prediction can almost
be a science. Imagine a weatherman says he's
going to make some guesses about next weeks
weather. He wouldn't last long.
If somebody has a marble in one hand and puts
his hands behind his back, he would never ask
you to predict which hand its in. That would be
ridiculous, there's nothing to base a prediction on.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
December 6th, 2011 at 7:39:50 PM
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Quote: EvenBob
If somebody has a marble in one hand and puts
his hands behind his back, he would never ask
you to predict which hand its in. That would be
ridiculous, there's nothing to base a prediction on.
Is he left handed or right handed? What hand was it in last time? What hand have I chosen more often in the past?
Happiness is underrated
December 6th, 2011 at 7:42:55 PM
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Its still not a prediction. With a prediction you have to
produce valid reasons for making a choice, and because
the result (I'm assuming) is random, guessing is all there
is. Past results do not effect future outcomes.
produce valid reasons for making a choice, and because
the result (I'm assuming) is random, guessing is all there
is. Past results do not effect future outcomes.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
December 7th, 2011 at 6:17:26 PM
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Quote: EvenBob
Prediction is impossible with totally independent
events. You have no reliable information to help
you.
Exactly! There is no way to make a scientific prediction. That's why your ability to "guess" consistently with better than expected accuracy is paranormal. Clairvoyance is exactly what you describe - having no reliable information to base your "guess" on, and still being right significantly more often than should be expected when making a random guess.
"When two people always agree one of them is unnecessary"
December 7th, 2011 at 6:21:30 PM
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Quote: weaselmanThat's why your ability to "guess" consistently with better than expected accuracy is paranormal.
I'm bored.
Last edited by: EvenBob on Nov 9, 2023
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
December 7th, 2011 at 8:33:37 PM
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Last question...
Have you purchased an Italian restaurant with your roulette winning? (Memories of Mr. Jjj's wild and absurd claims)
Have you purchased an Italian restaurant with your roulette winning? (Memories of Mr. Jjj's wild and absurd claims)
January 19th, 2013 at 8:59:43 AM
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interesting thread EvenBob
Each day is better than the next
February 2nd, 2013 at 8:26:59 PM
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Still I wonder what happens when NEO comes, the anomaly who can defy the law of large numbers? Do they just take him to court and say he doesn't exist? Your honor the odds of him winning like that are greater than the odds of the universe even existing. I also ask you to declare the universe also doesn't exist, because the odds of that even happening are too great for it to ever have happened.
I am a robot.
February 2nd, 2013 at 9:12:36 PM
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Quote: onenickelmiracleI also ask you to declare the universe also doesn't exist, because the odds of that even happening are too great for it to ever have happened.
Unless its always existed.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
February 2nd, 2013 at 9:16:21 PM
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Quote: EvenBobUnless its always existed.
Well, then who is it flying in a black trench coat and sunglasses? It's Neo!
I am a robot.
November 9th, 2023 at 10:34:33 AM
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People are always making cracks about my mathematical ability. Like it's really important.
. "Probability math deals with uncertainty and chance. For example, we can calculate the probability of flipping a coin and getting heads, but we cannot predict with certainty whether heads or tails will come up on a particular flip. The application of probability to real-world situations involves some degree of uncertainty."
Yet this uncertain math is taken like the gospel when it comes to games of chance. One of my best friends who died 2 years ago, had a genius IQ and went to college majoring in math in 1951. He taught High School algebra and calculus for almost 50 years and when he retired he taught it on Skype till he was 87 years old, right up until he died. When I would ask him about probability math he said he didn't know anything about it because when he was in college it was considered Voodoo math, pseudo math, and he only liked precise math, what he was taught. Even my own daughter who teaches college math won't talk about probability. If I bring it up she'll roll her eyes and say can't we talk about something else.
Yet this is the math I'm supposed to bow down and respect and kiss its Royal butt as the final say in certain games of chance. Even though I know for an absolute fact that it does not work in the extreme short term. I'm constantly mocked because I do not hold the math in that high a regard. It's fine for large numbers, it's fine for making sweeping suggestions but it's not precise at all. No part of probability math applies to the extreme short-term. I know this because I prove it every dang day.
. "Probability math deals with uncertainty and chance. For example, we can calculate the probability of flipping a coin and getting heads, but we cannot predict with certainty whether heads or tails will come up on a particular flip. The application of probability to real-world situations involves some degree of uncertainty."
Yet this uncertain math is taken like the gospel when it comes to games of chance. One of my best friends who died 2 years ago, had a genius IQ and went to college majoring in math in 1951. He taught High School algebra and calculus for almost 50 years and when he retired he taught it on Skype till he was 87 years old, right up until he died. When I would ask him about probability math he said he didn't know anything about it because when he was in college it was considered Voodoo math, pseudo math, and he only liked precise math, what he was taught. Even my own daughter who teaches college math won't talk about probability. If I bring it up she'll roll her eyes and say can't we talk about something else.
Yet this is the math I'm supposed to bow down and respect and kiss its Royal butt as the final say in certain games of chance. Even though I know for an absolute fact that it does not work in the extreme short term. I'm constantly mocked because I do not hold the math in that high a regard. It's fine for large numbers, it's fine for making sweeping suggestions but it's not precise at all. No part of probability math applies to the extreme short-term. I know this because I prove it every dang day.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
November 9th, 2023 at 10:40:07 AM
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In any case, you cannot know your exact expected win or loss even if you know the expected edge unless you know your exact handle, which even someone who plays rated at all times would have a hard time estimating that within any gross margin of error, especially if it is over a very large period of time and the average bet varied a lot.
I know after playing a given session I've been able to ask my host for an exact handle, and been told (it can easily be over a million dollars for someone like me for a single session), but I don't think the casino would keep track of cumulative handle even for a rated player.
I know after playing a given session I've been able to ask my host for an exact handle, and been told (it can easily be over a million dollars for someone like me for a single session), but I don't think the casino would keep track of cumulative handle even for a rated player.
I tell you it’s wonderful to be here, man. I don’t give a damn who wins or loses. It’s just wonderful to be here with you people.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
November 9th, 2023 at 10:54:56 AM
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Quote: MDawgIn any case, you cannot know your exact expected win or loss even if you know the expected edge unless you know your exact handle,
link to original post
What does that mean, I don't remember hearing that term before.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
November 9th, 2023 at 10:58:34 AM
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Some of the names in this thread, weaselman, thecesspit, thenightfly, they are still members here but they haven't posted in years. This thread is a real trip down memory lane.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
November 9th, 2023 at 11:22:32 AM
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My dad used to go up to Mohegan Pocono with his girlfriend, and while she played video poker he would play blackjack; he played until he won $100, then he would read a book until Helen ran out of money. And he always said to me, “I won my hundred dollars again today.” All I could say was, “That’s great, Dad.” I mean, who wins every single session for ten years straight, right? But if he says he did… whether it’s true or not has nothing to do with me. Because unless I’m there, I’ll never know, and I didn’t (and don’t) care enough to find out anyhow.
A falling knife has no handle.
November 9th, 2023 at 11:52:51 AM
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Quote: EvenBobPeople are always making cracks about my mathematical ability. Like it's really important.
...
No part of probability math applies to the extreme short-term. I know this because I prove it every dang day.
link to original post
I'm super impressed EvenBob. Well done in tracking down this decade expired thread to continue sticking it to the Math guys.
Same 5h1t different thread!
Neatly circumventing your instruction from wizard to keep your fairy tales about your winning prowess in one thread.
Were you getting lonely in that thread as it fizzled out to mostly EvenBob replying to EvenBob, replying to Evenbob again, with just the odd contribution from AW and your new Bestie JohnnyDepz.
Bye.
Psalm 25:16
Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted.
Proverbs 18:2
A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
November 9th, 2023 at 12:10:08 PM
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November 9th, 2023 at 12:39:25 PM
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Another thread for us to block. He must have got lonely in that other thread
Malicious compliance.
Can't start any more roulette threads : Check
Talking about it in a thread that he started himself : Check.
So he chose [that] one. : And now we see the same fantastical tale of 'proving it every day' in this thread. Until we block this one too and until he moves onto the next one.
Credit where it's due!
Quote: EvenBob... the former owner of wov told me I can't start any more roulette threads I can only talk about it in a thread that I started myself formerly. So I chose this one but I asked permission first. I was told it was fine as long as I'm not starting a new roulette thread.
link to original post
Malicious compliance.
Can't start any more roulette threads : Check
Talking about it in a thread that he started himself : Check.
So he chose [that] one. : And now we see the same fantastical tale of 'proving it every day' in this thread. Until we block this one too and until he moves onto the next one.
Credit where it's due!
Psalm 25:16
Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted.
Proverbs 18:2
A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
November 9th, 2023 at 1:30:33 PM
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Quote: OnceDear
I'm super impressed EvenBob. Well done in tracking down this decade expired thread
link to original post
I actually found it by accident. I wanted to make a post about probability and I entered that in search in this story came up from 12 years ago which I had totally forgotten about. I read every post here and I'm really impressed with some of the stuff I wrote considering it was 12 years ago. I actually learned some things in this thread for my own posts. Now that I'm a serious about playing as I've ever been because I'm playing for more money this probability stuff is on my mind more and more.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
November 9th, 2023 at 1:35:23 PM
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Anyone new to this discussion should probably read the replies from 12 years ago.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/general/7411-law-of-large-numbers/#post108205
If you need help blocking the thread, my PM's are open.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/general/7411-law-of-large-numbers/#post108205
If you need help blocking the thread, my PM's are open.
May the cards fall in your favor.
November 9th, 2023 at 1:50:23 PM
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Quote: EvenBob....... I'm really impressed with some of the stuff I wrote.....
link to original post
"I know words, I have the best words..."
November 9th, 2023 at 1:55:31 PM
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Quote: DieterAnyone new to this discussion should probably read the replies from 12 years ago.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/general/7411-law-of-large-numbers/#post108205
If you need help blocking the thread, my PM's are open.
link to original post
To those of us running Linux...
sudo vi /etc/hosts
[Enter your linux password]
:i (to go into insert mode)
127.0.0.1 wizardofvegas.com
:wq (to write and quit your edit session )
From then on, when visiting wizardofvegas.com forum to obsessively check out the latest and greatest words of wisdom, you'll see a nice 404 screen which will save you the wasted time and energy of ploughing through not only this thread, but the whole nine yards.
Windows users locate your hosts file and insert the same line for the same effect.
See here for a preview
Psalm 25:16
Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted.
Proverbs 18:2
A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
November 9th, 2023 at 2:02:46 PM
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Quote: OnceDearQuote: DieterAnyone new to this discussion should probably read the replies from 12 years ago.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/general/7411-law-of-large-numbers/#post108205
If you need help blocking the thread, my PM's are open.
link to original post
To those of us running Linux...
sudo vi /etc/hosts
[Enter your linux password]
:i (to go into insert mode)
127.0.0.1 wizardofvegas.com
:wq (to write and quit your edit session )
From then on, when visiting wizardofvegas.com forum to check obsessively checkout the latest and greatest words of wisdom, you'll see a nice 404 screen which will save you the wasted time and energy of ploughing through not only this thread, but the whole nine yards.
Windows users locate your hosts file and insert the same line for the same effect.
See here for a preview
link to original post
echo "127.0.0.1 wizardofvegas.com www.wizardofvegas.com" >> /etc/hosts
The double redirect is important.
There is probably some trouble using sudo with such fancy footwork.
May the cards fall in your favor.
November 9th, 2023 at 2:12:45 PM
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Quote: OnceDear
Were you getting lonely in that thread as it fizzled out to mostly EvenBob replying to EvenBob, replying to Evenbob again, .
link to original post
Oh no, you think I'm supposed to MISS the constant character assassination? The constant hassle every day, day in and day out? Never any positive support, only allusions to the legitimacy of my birth and how my IQ might be in the double digits? You think I'm supposed to miss all that? How many times have I said here that I post for my own edification, did you think I was kidding? I loved reading my own posts, I loved reading my posts in this thread. Ever wonder why Mdawg posts so much in his thread about what he does? I understand it completely because he is doing something unusual, and posting about it is a release. I do the same thing. Something you absolutely cannot understand if you're not doing something nobody else is doing.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
November 9th, 2023 at 2:13:29 PM
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Quote: Dieter
If you need help blocking the thread, my PM's are open.
link to original post
People don't know how to block? That's just sad..
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
November 9th, 2023 at 2:13:56 PM
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Quote: DieterQuote: OnceDearQuote: DieterAnyone new to this discussion should probably read the replies from 12 years ago.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/general/7411-law-of-large-numbers/#post108205
If you need help blocking the thread, my PM's are open.
link to original post
To those of us running Linux...
sudo vi /etc/hosts
[Enter your linux password]
:i (to go into insert mode)
127.0.0.1 wizardofvegas.com
:wq (to write and quit your edit session )
From then on, when visiting wizardofvegas.com forum to check obsessively checkout the latest and greatest words of wisdom, you'll see a nice 404 screen which will save you the wasted time and energy of ploughing through not only this thread, but the whole nine yards.
Windows users locate your hosts file and insert the same line for the same effect.
See here for a preview
link to original post
echo "127.0.0.1 wizardofvegas.com www.wizardofvegas.com" >> /etc/hosts
The double redirect is important.
There is probably some trouble using sudo with such fancy footwork.
link to original post
Cheers. Very true. I'm pants at Linux admin
sudo -s might have cut the mustard as a precursor.
the '>>' is not one we'd want to get wrong.
Psalm 25:16
Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted.
Proverbs 18:2
A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
November 9th, 2023 at 6:57:04 PM
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Quote: EvenBob
It doesn't matter, whats relevant to me is, no math,
no probability, governs the next outcome of
random numbers. All you know is what will 'probably'
happen 'eventually'. Up until that eventuality, you
can drive a truck thru the lack of knowledge about the
next spin, its that imprecise.
link to original post
Couldn't have said it better myself. Oh, wait..
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
November 9th, 2023 at 7:16:24 PM
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"And that says it all. I could care less what the long
term 'effect' is, I'm concerned with the next outcome
and only the next outcome. Thats where we play the
game, not on the next hundred spins or the next 10
spins, the casino only lets us bet on the NEXT spin.
Thats where all our attention should be. The law of
large numbers has nothing to do with just one spin,
where the game is actually played."
Me, I said that.
term 'effect' is, I'm concerned with the next outcome
and only the next outcome. Thats where we play the
game, not on the next hundred spins or the next 10
spins, the casino only lets us bet on the NEXT spin.
Thats where all our attention should be. The law of
large numbers has nothing to do with just one spin,
where the game is actually played."
Me, I said that.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
November 9th, 2023 at 8:35:40 PM
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Babble on, brother. At some point, you will realize you are talking to yourself.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
November 9th, 2023 at 8:36:26 PM
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duplicate
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
November 9th, 2023 at 8:47:04 PM
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Quote: billryanBabble on, brother. At some point, you will realize you are talking to yourself.
link to original post
I'm always talking to myself, other people are just gnats that swarm around my head sometimes that I have to swat away. I'm the most entertaining person I know, just ask me.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
November 10th, 2023 at 6:19:16 AM
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So desperate for attention....
Desperate for attention from complete strangers on the internet.
So sad.
Desperate for attention from complete strangers on the internet.
So sad.
November 10th, 2023 at 6:49:36 AM
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Feed a fever, starve a troll.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
November 10th, 2023 at 7:29:22 AM
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Quote: TigerWuSo desperate for attention....
link to original post
Are you talking about me? I'm not desperate for anything you are the people that keep interrupting me. Everybody can stay out of my threads for a month and see if anything changes. What will change for me is I won't have to answer ridiculous posts like this one.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
November 10th, 2023 at 7:43:22 AM
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Quote: TigerWuSo desperate for attention....
Desperate for attention from complete strangers on the internet.
So sad.
link to original post
Quote: EvenBobQuote: billryanBabble on, brother. At some point, you will realize you are talking to yourself.
link to original post
I'm always talking to myself, other people are just gnats that swarm around my head sometimes that I have to swat away. I'm the most entertaining person I know, just ask me.
https://youtu.be/UEaKX9YYHiQ?feature=shared
Last edited by: OnceDear on Nov 10, 2023
Psalm 25:16
Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted.
Proverbs 18:2
A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
November 10th, 2023 at 7:52:57 AM
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Quote: EvenBobQuote: MDawgIn any case, you cannot know your exact expected win or loss even if you know the expected edge unless you know your exact handle,
link to original post
What does that mean, I don't remember hearing that term before.
link to original post
Handle is the amount of money passed across the circle. Play with $100., bet once, win or lose, your handle is $100. Play with $100. manage three bets of $100., your handle is $300. And so on.
I can estimate my lifetime handle at over two billion dollars but couldn't tell you exactly what it is.
I tell you it’s wonderful to be here, man. I don’t give a damn who wins or loses. It’s just wonderful to be here with you people.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
