Malaru
Malaru
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February 8th, 2011 at 11:21:13 AM permalink
I say no- but I could be wrong.

Wouldnt a coin toss be constantly the same result if the same conditions were used?:

1) Exact same amount of force used
2) Same side face up apon tossing the coin
3) Same atmospheric conditions (resulting in same force used coming to same amoutn of flip and height on the coin toss)
4) No reverb/bounce when the coin hits the ground- the side that hits down stays down.
5) The force is applied to the exact same part of the coin on each toss.

Id have to imagine if all these were exactly the same on each flip the coin would have the same result each time- of course you wont get all these variables met exactly for each flip thus causing the variation.... or is it somehow truely random?
"Although men flatter themselves with their great actions, they are not so often the result of a great design as of chance." - Francois De La Rochefoucauld
dm
dm
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February 8th, 2011 at 11:23:26 AM permalink
Who cares? I am amazed that all these impossible scenarios garner such attention.
Malaru
Malaru
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February 8th, 2011 at 11:25:44 AM permalink
This is a statistics site run by an actuary- with members, some of who, have spent hundreds of hours just watching balls drop into numbers on a spinning piece of wood. Hoping to find "an edges".


chances are- someone here does care!
"Although men flatter themselves with their great actions, they are not so often the result of a great design as of chance." - Francois De La Rochefoucauld
Nareed
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February 8th, 2011 at 11:26:43 AM permalink
Quote: dm

Who cares? I am amazed that all these impossible scenarios garner such attention.



You know the joke about the farmer who hires a physicist to solve a problem he has with his chickens? The physicist solves the problem, but warns the farmer "Of course, the solution only applies to spherical chickens in a vaccum."

That's what all these scenarios remind me of.
Donald Trump is a fucking criminal
weaselman
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February 8th, 2011 at 11:31:00 AM permalink
Quote: Malaru


Id have to imagine if all these were exactly the same on each flip the coin would have the same result each time- of course you wont get all these variables met exactly for each flip thus causing the variation.... or is it somehow truely random?


Things are truly random in quantum mechanics. Beyond that, on larger scales, it is like you say. Nothing is "truly" random, only unknown enough to count as random for all intents and purposes
"When two people always agree one of them is unnecessary"
PapaChubby
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February 8th, 2011 at 11:35:05 AM permalink
I believe it is possible that somebody could practice tossing a coin, given a certain set of rules, so that the results would not be 50/50. It wouldn't surprise me if someone could get up to an 80/20 result from a toss which appears random to a typical observer. Flip it up a foot or two, catch it on the back of your hand and slap it with your other palm to prevent any bounce.

On the other hand, given the proper rules and a tosser who is not practiced or interested in achieving a particular result, I believe the toss is entirely random.

What was the question?
dm
dm
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February 8th, 2011 at 11:43:33 AM permalink
That's the problem on here. Most people don't really care what the question was, or what the responses are. But they will post a response based on..................who knows?

I might start responding with "wgaf". That will mean I think the question does not deserve a considered response.
kenarman
kenarman
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February 8th, 2011 at 11:46:37 AM permalink
It take very little practice to influence a coin toss to stray from 50/50. When I was a teenager I could toss at about a 3/2 result if I could catch the coin and always flip with the same side up.

If I wasn't tossing and we were deciding anything by a coin flip I always insisted it hit the ground or I wouldn't accept the results.
Be careful when you follow the masses, the M is sometimes silent.
ChesterDog
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February 8th, 2011 at 12:11:03 PM permalink
Here's an article regarding research by the magician-mathematician Persi Diaconi on a bias in coin flipping.
odiousgambit
odiousgambit
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February 8th, 2011 at 12:23:35 PM permalink
Quote: Malaru

I say no- but I could be wrong.

Wouldnt a coin toss be constantly the same result if the same conditions were used?:

1) Exact same amount of force used
2) Same side face up apon tossing the coin
3) Same atmospheric conditions (resulting in same force used coming to same amoutn of flip and height on the coin toss)
4) No reverb/bounce when the coin hits the ground- the side that hits down stays down.
5) The force is applied to the exact same part of the coin on each toss.

Id have to imagine if all these were exactly the same on each flip the coin would have the same result each time- of course you wont get all these variables met exactly for each flip thus causing the variation.... or is it somehow truely random?



It is a foundation of the scientific method to say that if exactly the same experiment is done, then each time the result will be the same. If a different result is obtained, then some factor was different, perhaps unknown. Thus the procedure involves 'the control' and also someone else must be able to duplicate the results.

So in theory the toss could be done in such a way as to not be random.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
Malaru
Malaru
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February 8th, 2011 at 1:14:06 PM permalink
Quote: ChesterDog

Here's an article regarding research by the magician-mathematician Persi Diaconi on a bias in coin flipping.




that article was perfectly what I was needing0- and very interesting- thank you.
"Although men flatter themselves with their great actions, they are not so often the result of a great design as of chance." - Francois De La Rochefoucauld
clarkacal
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February 8th, 2011 at 1:28:05 PM permalink
There are also the intangible variables such as how bad you are running and how hard you pray.
weaselman
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February 8th, 2011 at 1:28:23 PM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

It is a foundation of the scientific method to say that if exactly the same experiment is done, then each time the result will be the same.



"50% probability of heads or tails" is "the same result" every time. Nearly all the results in quantum mechanics are of this nature, and nobody will deny they are scientific.
"When two people always agree one of them is unnecessary"
odiousgambit
odiousgambit
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February 8th, 2011 at 1:54:04 PM permalink
Quote: weaselman

"50% probability of heads or tails" is "the same result" every time. Nearly all the results in quantum mechanics are of this nature, and nobody will deny they are scientific.



Einstein had a problem with such things. He liked to say "God does not roll the dice"
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
mkl654321
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February 8th, 2011 at 2:44:13 PM permalink
Quote: dm

Who cares? I am amazed that all these impossible scenarios garner such attention.



Since your question was rhetorical, why did you post it at all? Especially since posing that rhetorical question implies that the topic holds no interest for you.
The fact that a believer is happier than a skeptic is no more to the point than the fact that a drunken man is happier than a sober one. The happiness of credulity is a cheap and dangerous quality.---George Bernard Shaw
weaselman
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February 8th, 2011 at 3:19:33 PM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit



Einstein had a problem with such things. He liked to say "God does not roll the dice"



Indeed. He also assumed that the Universe was static, and invented a Cosmological Constant to allow for that possibility ... and then, when Hubble discovered the expansion, he changed his mind, and said that it was "the greatest mistake of his life" ... and now it appears, that the constant is actually needed, and wasn't a mistake at all. And Newton thought that time and space were two separate and absolute entities, and Maxwell was sure about the luminoforous ether.
So what? Things change ...
"When two people always agree one of them is unnecessary"
dm
dm
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February 8th, 2011 at 3:43:10 PM permalink
Quote: mkl654321

Since your question was rhetorical, why did you post it at all? Especially since posing that rhetorical question implies that the topic holds no interest for you.




It holds no interest for hardly anyone, apparently. Look at the posts that resulted, with only very few even relating to his question. Why consider all the impossible ifs? Just like I wouldn't waste time trying to explain infinity with a bunch of zeros. And speaking of
of motives, your post pretty well proves my point. You didn't very well answer his question.


I don't know how to start a new thread, but my urgent question is: if you were the wealthiest person in California, and you were 45 years old, and had blond hair, and stood exactly 6 feet tall, what kind of underwear would you buy? To wear of course, and what would be your reasons? Bras not applicable.
Nareed
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February 8th, 2011 at 3:57:38 PM permalink
Quote: dm

It holds no interest for hardly anyone, apparently. Look at the posts that resulted, with only very few even relating to his question. Why consider all the impossible ifs?



Well, it's one way to come up with ideas for science fiction stories. Of course, the impossibility need be more interesting than the randomness of a coin

Quote:

I don't know how to start a new thread, but my urgent question is: if you were the wealthiest person in California, and you were 45 years old, and had blond hair, and stood exactly 6 feet tall, what kind of underwear would you buy? To wear of course, and what would be your reasons? Bras not applicable.



To start a new thread go to the appropriate section and click on the buttong marked "new thread."

As to your question, if I were blond and in California I'd perforce buy satin thongs, because that's the kind of slutty underwear a natural blond is expected to buy. If I bleached my hair, on the otehr hand, I'd wear cotton, boy-short cut panties (known also as granny panties), because those are the most comfortable ;)
Donald Trump is a fucking criminal
FleaStiff
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February 8th, 2011 at 4:08:16 PM permalink
The 51/49 bias for whichever side is up is "close enough" for football games and election ties.

Its sort of like that RNG chip in a slot machine. It is close enough to random to make the casinos happy... and wealthy.
mkl654321
mkl654321
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February 8th, 2011 at 4:28:34 PM permalink
Quote: dm

It holds no interest for hardly anyone, apparently. Look at the posts that resulted, with only very few even relating to his question. Why consider all the impossible ifs? Just like I wouldn't waste time trying to explain infinity with a bunch of zeros. And speaking of
of motives, your post pretty well proves my point. You didn't very well answer his question.


I don't know how to start a new thread, but my urgent question is: if you were the wealthiest person in California, and you were 45 years old, and had blond hair, and stood exactly 6 feet tall, what kind of underwear would you buy? To wear of course, and what would be your reasons? Bras not applicable.



That's a pretty ridiculous comparison. What you term--badly--as "impossible ifs" (a self-canceling phrase), the OP and several of the responders don't consider trivial or beneath considering at all. Many important things are decided by flipping a coin. And SINCE A COIN IS ASYMMETRICAL, the question of whether it can be flipped so as to produce a biased result is non-trivial.

Perhaps you didn't see all that--but the question stands: given that the topic held no interest for you, why did you feel compelled to grace us with the radiant light of your opinion on the worthiness of the subject? If you don't like what's being discussed in a thread, in other words, why not just keep a cork in it?

And I didn't answer the OP's question because I didn't HAVE the answer--but I was thinking some people might. So I browse this thread for that reason--even if, O mighty one, you think this thread is unworthy.
The fact that a believer is happier than a skeptic is no more to the point than the fact that a drunken man is happier than a sober one. The happiness of credulity is a cheap and dangerous quality.---George Bernard Shaw
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