Wizardofnothing
Wizardofnothing
Joined: Jul 3, 2015
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June 24th, 2016 at 3:44:25 PM permalink
The machines are fast and it's not that hard to figure out But I think what Gwae is saying is based on an absolute no loss situation with a guaranteed win, theoretically if you ran awful this was not a guaranteed win situation
No longer hiring, donít ask because I wonít hire you either
BTLWI
BTLWI
Joined: Nov 6, 2013
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June 24th, 2016 at 3:51:16 PM permalink
We'll settle for an average win, how about that giant clue.

And yes, in my 2nd picture of the thread we got on at $1937 and it took us to $1997 resulting in an $800 loss. We even had a $2K hand pay during a bonus round. But there's zero reason to expect a machine to take you all the way to the top.
Mission146
Mission146
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June 24th, 2016 at 4:54:33 PM permalink
Quote: GWAE

On a 9-10k I would think it would need to be closer to 9950 before it is a play. Of course i don't know whay the meter move is.



It would not typically need to be that high, in fact, on a $4.00/penny meter, you would have 10k locked up on Maximum Theoretical Coin-In of 20k, so it would be all but impossible for that NOT to be a good play.
Vultures can't be choosers.
Mission146
Mission146
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June 24th, 2016 at 4:58:20 PM permalink
Quote: BTLWI

But there's zero reason to expect a machine to take you all the way to the top.



That's certainly true, but do you either:

A.) Believe in the halfway point theory

OR

B.) Know that the next jackpot amount is randomly selected from the possible Range upon Reset, and as a result, the halfway point theory is not only a theory but is absolutely based in fact for that particular unit?
Vultures can't be choosers.
Wizardofnothing
Wizardofnothing
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June 24th, 2016 at 5:00:36 PM permalink
I'm sure I'm wrong but I never make a play on it unless I'm factoring it to go to the top
No longer hiring, donít ask because I wonít hire you either
BTLWI
BTLWI
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June 24th, 2016 at 5:47:08 PM permalink
Quote: Mission146

That's certainly true, but do you either:

A.) Believe in the halfway point theory

OR

B.) Know that the next jackpot amount is randomly selected from the possible Range upon Reset, and as a result, the halfway point theory is not only a theory but is absolutely based in fact for that particular unit?



A and believe in B but cannot prove it to be factual. At first I thought they were somehow weighted but what Axel said in another thread convinced me. If they were weighted we'd see a lot more of them at high points.

Theres six of these and they go off before $9500 soooo often.
TwoFeathersATL
TwoFeathersATL
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June 24th, 2016 at 5:52:58 PM permalink
I read all of that. I'm surprised AxieWolf posted at all.
I can share some numbers with you now:

Nevermind ;-)
Youuuuuu MIGHT be a 'rascal' if.......(nevermind ;-)...2F
GWAE
GWAE
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June 24th, 2016 at 6:21:33 PM permalink
Quote: BTLWI

A and believe in B but cannot prove it to be factual. At first I thought they were somehow weighted but what Axel said in another thread convinced me. If they were weighted we'd see a lot more of them at high points.

Theres six of these and they go off before $9500 soooo often.



Say you set your figures on something like it hitting by 9750. Doesn't it just take 1 time going to the top to wipe out all winnings plus some?
I don't spend a lot of time on must hits but when I do I always calculate it based on going to the top. Last thing I want to do is lose 2k going after 500
Expect the worst and you will never be disappointed. I AM NOT PART OF GWAE RADIO SHOW
BTLWI
BTLWI
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June 24th, 2016 at 8:11:25 PM permalink
Quote: GWAE

Say you set your figures on something like it hitting by 9750. Doesn't it just take 1 time going to the top to wipe out all winnings plus some?
I don't spend a lot of time on must hits but when I do I always calculate it based on going to the top. Last thing I want to do is lose 2k going after 500



It matters what percentage profit you're expecting. I won't do any at breakeven unless it's 3*/5* points day or a promo makes points extra valuable. For these Majors with a ton of coin in I like 103% payback. For smaller prizes I actually like closer to 110%.

Minors are tricky. On these machines the average coin in when we get on a $485 Minor is .8% of the average coin in to hit the Major. That's actually worth $76 but you'd have to do ~125 Minors before you could expect to hit a random Major. We don't include the $76 in profit calcs but technically it is there. Two weeks ago my buddy was doing a $181 (too early) Minor that I declined to split (needs to be $185) and the $1000-2000 major drops for him at $1050 while I'm sweating him......
Wizardofnothing
Wizardofnothing
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June 24th, 2016 at 8:20:11 PM permalink
Just so people don't get confused- So your buddy was straight up gambling and got lucky
No longer hiring, donít ask because I wonít hire you either

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