Blackjack vs. Craps, who has better odds?

haha, no problem. Now you see what I mean- there is a lot to either game. From an experience perspective, I find craps to be more exciting, blackjack to be more relaxing and conducive to conversation.

20 years ago, I played and enjoyed a lot of BlackJack and avoided the rowdy guys around craps. Now, it's the opposite, and it's because of the players. BlackJack has evolved into a game where there's almost no full table without its bully and/or know-it-all blaming others for how they play. I also don't like how the casinos keep shaving the HE more towards the house. Craps has fun bets like A/T/S and Firebet along with multiple rolls on the same base bet possible (so cheaper entertainment) and women are much more welcome (as fellow players, not as decoration) than they used to be. I also credit the guys on this forum for making it much more accessible and fun, especially Doc. Thanks!

The Defense was going to rest LOL, but I feel I need to make some things clear

Quote: Romes

The bet made, bet resolved stays at 1.41% no matter what, even if you lay odds.

I do not disagree with you here.

Quote:

The "Roll" that is .42% I believe a number being taken out of context when saying "the house edge is lowered."

You are looking at the change that comes from looking at the bet on a "per roll" basis. I was not talking about that.

As far as what my argument actually was, I can only repeat what my points were that I have already made. I want to put in some info on EV/SD so look for a future post on that. I assert that most people voted wrong [although the original question is posed too simply].

For me, it is craps. BJ seems to have too many nasty players, as BBB mentioned, who take away from the game. The house edge thing is not as big of a deal to me because the house always has an advantage over me in either game. IF BJ had less nasties, I would like it better. Those people don't care that your mistakes don't really matter--they just think they are right (even when your play is right and they are wrong).

Craps? You are part of a group of sorts but you are also playing alone. Less players bug me there. That means I can have more fun.

Let’s look at EV/SD for this question, but put in more parameters.

What does Expected Value divided by Standard Deviation tell us? The EV of a session obviously grows, as does the SD expressed as a money amount. However, eventually EV will grow faster and finally exceed the SD. The SD has a specific meaning, a player expecting to fall within one SD 68% of the time. Remember EV is theoretical, that a player might actually be winning at negative expectation [or doing worse, or whatever]. So, I find the best way to get a grip on the value of looking at EV/SD is to realize that if a player’s EV [in absolute value] of a session equals one SD, then in order for the player to just break even, he needed to have experienced one SD on the positive side; one SD of good luck.

Let’s look at this for the two games. Assumptions:

*the player flat-bets
*the player finds a $10 minimum table for both games
*the Craps game offers 3x4x5x odds
*the BJ game has liberal rules
*he bets the same number of bets, say 196
*he bets roughly the same bet amount at BJ that he does with the average be he makes at Craps
*At Craps he bets only the Pass with max odds.

Note that the OP did not indicate these assumptions or any others. Yes, the BJ player could choose to bet less per hand; ev/sd would not change though.

Let’s use the Wizard’s SD and HE information for BJ* That’s 0.28% HE and the SD for one bet is 1.15.

For Craps, I need to use data that was posted from our member Goatcabin, plus the well-known but Romes-rejected HE for the combined Pass/Max bet. The HE is 0.374%, the SD 4.91563184, and average bet 3.78 units.

On that Wiz page he tells how to derive one SD for a session. We take the sqrt of 196 = 14 bets and multiply times the SD of one bet. That figure is then multiplied times the average bet.

For the Craps game that’s 14 * 4.91563184 = 68.81884576
68.81884576 * $10 * 3.78 = $2601.352369728 = amount that might be won or lost in addition to the EV in one SD.

For the BJ game lets use a bet of $37 to make it a possible bet. For SD of one session that’s 14 * 1.15 * = 16.1
16.1 * $37 = $595.7 = amount that might be won or lost in addition to the EV in one SD.

The formula for the EV is well known and = Total Action * HE

For the Craps EV = 196 * 37.8 * -0.374% = -$27.708912

For the BJ EV = 196 * 37 * -0.28% = -$20.3056
[just for the record 196 * 37.8 * -0.28% = -20.74464]

getting rid of the minus sign,

EV/SD for Craps = 27.708912/2601.352369728 = 0.0106517334300609
about 1%

EV/SD for BJ = 27.708912/595.7 = 0.0465148766157462
about 4.7%

Note that I have used an excellent-to-find BJ game and that the usual game might have an HE close to the Craps game. However, I wouldnt know the SD for that game.

Conclusions;

Looking strictly at the HE and the EV, the game to choose would be the BJ. I’d say in practice it is not so easy to find such a game today, whereas 3x4x5x Craps is common.

Looking at EV/SD, though, Craps comes out ahead. I can’t point to any research, but in my experience, as EV absolute value gets to around 10% of one SD, the chances of winning the session go down enough for a conservative player to know he should stop. That’s IMO. At EV=1 SD any idiot has to concede the player has played enough to really be pressing his luck.

With the assumptions above, I stipulate then that a recreational player might pick either game for short sessions if the BJ HE is lower, but should go with the Craps game if the HE is similar. And IMO if the player is going to do a lot of gambling, Craps, not BJ. The variance is too low in the latter.

As Mission says, never hurts for someone to check that math LOL.




* https://wizardofodds.com/gambling/house-edge/

Odious, thank you for proving (to me) what I have blindly believed. I have found it much easier to play for a long amount of time, 7-8 hours, on a $200 buy in on craps than BJ. But that is just what I have experienced in the short time I have been playing craps.

You're welcome. everybody's results vary, but I think we can say we have made our case based on something.

Quote: odiousgambit

What does Expected Value divided by Standard Deviation tell us? <snip>

without any form of correction it is the number of SDs away from the EV
the NUMBER of SDs

and it relates to the z-score in determining by approximation (sometimes a real good one)
the chance of being even or ahead after N bets (this assumes a normal distribution so the central limit theorem can be more accurate instead of less accurate)

Quote: odiousgambit

For the Craps EV = 196 * 37.8 * -0.374% = -$27.708912

For the BJ EV = 196 * 37 * -0.28% = -$20.3056
[just for the record 196 * 37.8 * -0.28% = -20.74464]

just for the record you are using $37 as an average bet at BJ
is this correct to do it that way?
is not the average bet higher than $37
what you say to this?

or do you follow this
from
By Eliot Jacobson, Ph.D.
"The most common mistakes supervisors make are counting double
downs and splits as part of the player’s average bet. The
only money that counts is the initial bet. No other money
should be included."

Quote: odiousgambit

getting rid of the minus sign,

EV/SD for Craps = 27.708912/2601.352369728 = 0.0106517334300609
about 1%

EV/SD for BJ = 27.708912/595.7 = 0.0465148766157462
about 4.7%

no need to get rid of the minus sign
it shows what side of the curve the data is on
so it seems to be important

and...
about 1%
about 4.7%

this is HORRIBLE!
please change your answers (no)
something I would do in math class!

the value returned by ev/sd = a NUMBER, not a percentage

it is the z-score, i thinks
the number of SDs from the MEAN (the mean, i was not YELLING!!!)

see math is fun
for fun
https://www.mathsisfun.com/data/standard-normal-distribution.html

other than that
grade: C-
Sally