Eaglesnest
Eaglesnest
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July 29th, 2014 at 11:19:17 AM permalink
Hello all, I have a rather complicated question. After several months in the hospital and losing my job to boot, my bankroll is down to about 8K. I would like to boost it up to 20K or more by coming to Vegas and grinding out some AP play. I am very experienced in VP and live poker and am willing to put in long hours. I am fairly risk-averse in this context, but it would not be a disaster if I busted out. I am considering four basic strategies:

1. Play +EV VP, with the idea of playing inherently positive games and/or negative games that get boosted significantly over 100% by promos (I'm over 50 so I'm eligible for those deals). I would stay in cheap hotel rooms rather than getting an apartment, and would expect that my play would get me decent room discounts at least.

2. Play widely scattered +EV VP as well as some minimally negative (< -0.5%) plays in order to be eligible for mailers. In this scenario, I either get a local PO box (since I assume that what kind of offers you get depends on your mailing address zip code) or just rent a cheapo apartment.

3. Concentrate on live poker, milking promos such as freerolls, etc., mostly in the locals' rooms.

4. Concentrate on live poker, playing marathons on weekends at the Strip rooms when the tourists hit town.

Just about all types of promos would be valuable to me, with the exception of drawings (I'm never able to be in the right place at the right time). Even lowly "free buffet when you earn 300 points" offers are worthwhile. Basically, I would like to earn at whatever rate my play can afford and use the perks from that play to offset at least part of my overhead (food, rooms).

So which course of action do you think would work best, including "don't do it"? I have put in thousands of hours at VP and live poker in the past, so I know about all the ups and downs. I would like to make about 2K a month after expenses--is this doable within the context of a low RoR? For instance, I believe $8K gives you about a 1% RoR if you play FPDW (no slot club benefits), but the earn rate is slow--less than $8/hr at 800 hph. That would equate to 250 hours a month--no way I could do that.

Any thoughts from EXPERIENCED players would be welcome (it appears, from skimming these threads, that there are many such people here). Thanks!
DRich
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July 29th, 2014 at 11:31:16 AM permalink
If you really have six months you don't need to get fancy. Just play the 25 cent 10 coin full pay deuces at the Skyline. They are worth about $14 an hour. If you play 10 hours a day you will make $25k over six months. After expenses you should still be in good shape.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
AxiomOfChoice
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July 29th, 2014 at 11:35:33 AM permalink
Quote: Eaglesnest

Hello all, I have a rather complicated question. After several months in the hospital and losing my job to boot, my bankroll is down to about 8K. I would like to boost it up to 20K or more by coming to Vegas and grinding out some AP play. I am very experienced in VP and live poker and am willing to put in long hours. I am fairly risk-averse in this context, but it would not be a disaster if I busted out. I am considering four basic strategies:

1. Play +EV VP, with the idea of playing inherently positive games and/or negative games that get boosted significantly over 100% by promos (I'm over 50 so I'm eligible for those deals). I would stay in cheap hotel rooms rather than getting an apartment, and would expect that my play would get me decent room discounts at least.

2. Play widely scattered +EV VP as well as some minimally negative (< -0.5%) plays in order to be eligible for mailers. In this scenario, I either get a local PO box (since I assume that what kind of offers you get depends on your mailing address zip code) or just rent a cheapo apartment.

3. Concentrate on live poker, milking promos such as freerolls, etc., mostly in the locals' rooms.

4. Concentrate on live poker, playing marathons on weekends at the Strip rooms when the tourists hit town.

Just about all types of promos would be valuable to me, with the exception of drawings (I'm never able to be in the right place at the right time). Even lowly "free buffet when you earn 300 points" offers are worthwhile. Basically, I would like to earn at whatever rate my play can afford and use the perks from that play to offset at least part of my overhead (food, rooms).

So which course of action do you think would work best, including "don't do it"? I have put in thousands of hours at VP and live poker in the past, so I know about all the ups and downs. I would like to make about 2K a month after expenses--is this doable within the context of a low RoR? For instance, I believe $8K gives you about a 1% RoR if you play FPDW (no slot club benefits), but the earn rate is slow--less than $8/hr at 800 hph. That would equate to 250 hours a month--no way I could do that.

Any thoughts from EXPERIENCED players would be welcome (it appears, from skimming these threads, that there are many such people here). Thanks!



Wouldn't $8/hr for 250 hr be $2k before (not after) expenses? And, what denom are you talking about?

If you are making less than you would make at a real job... can you get a real job instead?

If you want to do it through gambling, would you be better off working with someone where the risk can be shared (thus allowing you to play for higher stakes and earn more)? Isn't Axel constantly posting that he is looking for people?
Eaglesnest
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July 29th, 2014 at 11:54:29 AM permalink
Quote: AxiomOfChoice

Wouldn't $8/hr for 250 hr be $2k before (not after) expenses? And, what denom are you talking about?

If you are making less than you would make at a real job... can you get a real job instead?

If you want to do it through gambling, would you be better off working with someone where the risk can be shared (thus allowing you to play for higher stakes and earn more)? Isn't Axel constantly posting that he is looking for people?



Yes, you're right--that would be 2K before expenses are considered. I do expect that my play will partially cover rooms and food, but I would still estimate my monthly nut at about 1K. So I'd need to gross 3K a month--definitely not doable at 5-coin .25 FPDW. (I haven't seen any real opportunities at higher denoms, and anyway, my bankroll wouldn't allow $1+ play.)

There are several negatives about a "real" job, specifically, the fixed hours, the fact that you only take home about 75% or less of what you earn (and you get no benefit from that 25% you lose), and worst of all, having a boss. Awful.

I would love to hook up with other skilled players and combine bankrolls--I've done that in the past--but that sort of situation is volatile. You have to be able to implicitly trust the other person(s) and vice versa. Most gamblers--APs or not--have some sort of vice/leak that turns them into unreliable people (one constant playing companion from a decade ago had the worst leak in the world--a psycho girlfriend; she cost him $250,000). I don't know who Axel is.
FleaStiff
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July 29th, 2014 at 12:36:02 PM permalink
>Hello all, I have a rather complicated question.
No you don't. You have options and your training and experience lets you know just what you are looking at. What you are looking for is handholding and I doubt you'll get that here.

1. Play +EV VP,.
2. Play widely scattered +EV VP as well as some minimally negative (< -0.5%) plays in order to be eligible for mailers.
3. Concentrate on live poker, milking promos such as freerolls, etc., mostly in the locals' rooms.
4. Concentrate on live poker, playing marathons on weekends at the Strip rooms when the tourists hit town.

Looks like it will be 4 3 2 1.

4: Going to the Venetian's poker room looking for fish is going to make you the most money if you are any good and there are no fish in the mirror.
3: Doing Poker Grind Rooms playing for blinds won't make much money and the locals already know each other; you will be "the fish".
2: Mailers are a sweetener, it take a few months to become a mailer response and a few more months for the casino's reactions.
1: Playing VP is great but you can put a heck of a lot of coin in and never get a royal.

I'd choose a po box or mail forwarding service with care. I'd do the poker routine but not just on weekends. I'd plan on a "no fixed abode" lifestyle and count myself lucky if I had one. Count on exploiting hotels: take personal care kits with you, live light, sleep in freebie rooms when you can. You sound like you know people you could share clean safe nearby digs with, but you also sound as if you know taking such people in as team members is bad because if the vending machine doesn't work, its always YOUR dime that got lost in it, never theirs.
AxiomOfChoice
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July 29th, 2014 at 12:44:05 PM permalink
Quote: Eaglesnest

Yes, you're right--that would be 2K before expenses are considered. I do expect that my play will partially cover rooms and food, but I would still estimate my monthly nut at about 1K. So I'd need to gross 3K a month--definitely not doable at 5-coin .25 FPDW. (I haven't seen any real opportunities at higher denoms, and anyway, my bankroll wouldn't allow $1+ play.)

There are several negatives about a "real" job, specifically, the fixed hours, the fact that you only take home about 75% or less of what you earn (and you get no benefit from that 25% you lose), and worst of all, having a boss. Awful.

I would love to hook up with other skilled players and combine bankrolls--I've done that in the past--but that sort of situation is volatile. You have to be able to implicitly trust the other person(s) and vice versa. Most gamblers--APs or not--have some sort of vice/leak that turns them into unreliable people (one constant playing companion from a decade ago had the worst leak in the world--a psycho girlfriend; she cost him $250,000). I don't know who Axel is.



There is a regular poster on this site who goes by the name of AxelWolf. Many forum members have met him in person, and a few work with him. You should PM him. He has been doing this for a long time and I have never heard any complaints from anyone. I have only met him once, but I would trust him.

Occasionally he makes a post saying that he is looking for new APs.
Eaglesnest
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July 29th, 2014 at 7:54:28 PM permalink
Quote: FleaStiff

>Hello all, I have a rather complicated question.
No you don't. You have options and your training and experience lets you know just what you are looking at. What you are looking for is handholding and I doubt you'll get that here.

1. Play +EV VP,.
2. Play widely scattered +EV VP as well as some minimally negative (< -0.5%) plays in order to be eligible for mailers.
3. Concentrate on live poker, milking promos such as freerolls, etc., mostly in the locals' rooms.
4. Concentrate on live poker, playing marathons on weekends at the Strip rooms when the tourists hit town.

Looks like it will be 4 3 2 1.

4: Going to the Venetian's poker room looking for fish is going to make you the most money if you are any good and there are no fish in the mirror.
3: Doing Poker Grind Rooms playing for blinds won't make much money and the locals already know each other; you will be "the fish".
2: Mailers are a sweetener, it take a few months to become a mailer response and a few more months for the casino's reactions.
1: Playing VP is great but you can put a heck of a lot of coin in and never get a royal.

I'd choose a po box or mail forwarding service with care. I'd do the poker routine but not just on weekends. I'd plan on a "no fixed abode" lifestyle and count myself lucky if I had one. Count on exploiting hotels: take personal care kits with you, live light, sleep in freebie rooms when you can. You sound like you know people you could share clean safe nearby digs with, but you also sound as if you know taking such people in as team members is bad because if the vending machine doesn't work, its always YOUR dime that got lost in it, never theirs.



Thanks for the advice, but I can't help but wonder why you felt compelled to say something like "what you are looking for is handholding" in the course of offering it. What I was actually looking for was insight from others how have attempted something roughly similar to what I'm trying to do now.

Insofar as VP goes, much of the value these days is in mailers, not in the games themselves. You're right in that it can take some time for those to materialize. Live poker on the Strip (and the Venetian is a good venue) is probably the best option for immediate income. If you find that your opponents know what they're doing, you just switch tables.
Buzzard
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July 30th, 2014 at 8:30:07 AM permalink
" Many forum members have met him in person" I met him in prison.
Shed not for her the bitter tear Nor give the heart to vain regret Tis but the casket that lies here, The gem that filled it Sparkles yet
Lemieux66
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July 30th, 2014 at 8:56:20 AM permalink
Quote: AxiomOfChoice

There is a regular poster on this site who goes by the name of AxelWolf. Many forum members have met him in person, and a few work with him. You should PM him. He has been doing this for a long time and I have never heard any complaints from anyone. I have only met him once, but I would trust him.

Occasionally he makes a post saying that he is looking for new APs.



I met him. Good guy. Intelligent.
10 eyes for an eye. 10 teeth for a tooth. 10 bucks for a buck?! Hit the bad guys where it hurts the most: the face and the wallet.
beachbumbabs
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July 30th, 2014 at 5:01:50 PM permalink
I met him also, and I will say he's good people. Very unusual person, can't help liking him.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
GWAE
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July 30th, 2014 at 7:18:20 PM permalink
Quote: Eaglesnest



There are several negatives about a "real" job, specifically, the fixed hours, the fact that you only take home about 75% or less of what you earn (and you get no benefit from that 25% you lose),



It gets real old hearing people who are willing to commit tax fraud. Your account should be banned just for admitting that you are willing to do it.
Expect the worst and you will never be disappointed. I AM NOT PART OF GWAE RADIO SHOW
Eaglesnest
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July 30th, 2014 at 7:32:10 PM permalink
Quote: GWAE

It gets real old hearing people who are willing to commit tax fraud. Your account should be banned just for admitting that you are willing to do it.



You are obviously a troll. Your account should be banned for your insulting behavior. I will reply, however, as if you weren't a troll.

You are drawing a stupid and unwarranted inference: namely, that I don't pay taxes. I am in business for myself, however, so I file a Schedule C and take all allowable deductions. The result is that I usually owe far less federal and state income tax than I would if I was earning the same amounts as wages--because I can deduct many expenses as a Schedule C filer than I otherwise could. I "make up" for this by paying twice as much Social Security tax as anyone else--the self-employment penalty, plus the amount I would normally pay. My tax payments for the year 2013 amounted to 28% of my income--more than half of that was SSI.

What is it about the internet that makes people feel free to say things to other people like accusing them of tax fraud? Especially when they have NO idea of what they're babbling about.
mcallister3200
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July 30th, 2014 at 7:36:15 PM permalink
Eagles, take it easy, you are too used to the 2+2 crowd, I think he simply misunderstood your statement.
RonC
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July 30th, 2014 at 7:36:59 PM permalink
Quote: Eaglesnest

What is it about the internet that makes people feel free to say things to other people like accusing them of tax fraud? Especially when they have NO idea of what they're babbling about.



It is simple--people can say whatever they want without real fear of repercussions because the never have to look you in the eye and say it.

Saying someone is willing to commit tax fraud with no evidence of the same is pretty low. Some people here do admit or allude to things like that; you did neither.

Good luck!!
RonC
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July 30th, 2014 at 7:38:26 PM permalink
Quote: mcallister3200

Eagles, take it easy, you are too used to the 2+2 crowd, I think he simply misunderstood your statement.



Misunderstanding reply--dude, are you figuring in the costs of taxes?

"Willing to commit tax fraud" with no other info is pretty inflammatory.

Cheers!
Lemieux66
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July 30th, 2014 at 7:45:04 PM permalink
Quote: beachbumbabs

I met him also, and I will say he's good people. Very unusual person, can't help liking him.



Before the first meeting with him, he told me to meet him at the sports book. He would be wearing a black leather hat. I went there and the only guy wearing a black hat was this very obese black guy drinking straight patron. Doesn't exactly scream AP, and I'm glad it wasnt him.
10 eyes for an eye. 10 teeth for a tooth. 10 bucks for a buck?! Hit the bad guys where it hurts the most: the face and the wallet.
AxiomOfChoice
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July 30th, 2014 at 7:47:01 PM permalink
Quote: Eaglesnest

You are obviously a troll. Your account should be banned for your insulting behavior. I will reply, however, as if you weren't a troll.

You are drawing a stupid and unwarranted inference: namely, that I don't pay taxes. I am in business for myself, however, so I file a Schedule C and take all allowable deductions. The result is that I usually owe far less federal and state income tax than I would if I was earning the same amounts as wages--because I can deduct many expenses as a Schedule C filer than I otherwise could. I "make up" for this by paying twice as much Social Security tax as anyone else--the self-employment penalty, plus the amount I would normally pay. My tax payments for the year 2013 amounted to 28% of my income--more than half of that was SSI.

What is it about the internet that makes people feel free to say things to other people like accusing them of tax fraud? Especially when they have NO idea of what they're babbling about.



It's a little strange for you to claim that one of the downsides of a real job is that you have to pay 25% of it in taxes, and then say that by being self-employed you pay 28%.

I don't think it was unreasonable for GWAE to assume from your 75% remark, that you do not pay taxes on your gambling winnings. How else would a reasonable person interpret it?
AxiomOfChoice
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July 30th, 2014 at 7:48:53 PM permalink
Quote: RonC

Saying someone is willing to commit tax fraud with no evidence of the same is pretty low. Some people here do admit or allude to things like that; you did neither.



I'm pretty sure he did allude to it.

Taking everything he said at face value, I still don't know how to interpret his 75% remark.
GWAE
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July 30th, 2014 at 7:58:28 PM permalink
Quote: Eaglesnest

You are obviously a troll. Your account should be banned for your insulting behavior. I will reply, however, as if you weren't a troll.

You are drawing a stupid and unwarranted inference: namely, that I don't pay taxes. I am in business for myself, however, so I file a Schedule C and take all allowable deductions. The result is that I usually owe far less federal and state income tax than I would if I was earning the same amounts as wages--because I can deduct many expenses as a Schedule C filer than I otherwise could. I "make up" for this by paying twice as much Social Security tax as anyone else--the self-employment penalty, plus the amount I would normally pay. My tax payments for the year 2013 amounted to 28% of my income--more than half of that was SSI.

What is it about the internet that makes people feel free to say things to other people like accusing them of tax fraud? Especially when they have NO idea of what they're babbling about.



Lol yes I must be a troll. You know what a troll is right?
If I misunderstood what you meant about taking home less than 75% when employed then I apologize but I stand by what I said. You make reference to not taking home as much when you are working yet you say you paid 28% in taxes as self employed. Something does not add up there.

Quote: RonC

It is simple--people can say whatever they want without real fear of repercussions because the never have to look you in the eye and say it.

Saying someone is willing to commit tax fraud with no evidence of the same is pretty low. Some people here do admit or allude to things like that; you did neither.

Good luck!!


FWIW, I would never say something on here that I am not willing to say to ones face.
Expect the worst and you will never be disappointed. I AM NOT PART OF GWAE RADIO SHOW
Eaglesnest
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July 30th, 2014 at 8:03:35 PM permalink
Dear God, people have to learn to read. I specifically referenced WHAT YOU TAKE HOME. I don't like giving the government an interest-free loan, which is what you do when you are withheld monies that you will eventually get back. As a self-employed person, I pay every tax my employer would pay except for unemployment insurance, which I couldn't even if I wanted to, and worker's comp, which would be silly anyway. I pay TWICE what a wage earner would pay in SSI.

I did allude to the fact that I probably pay less overall income tax than I would if I was doing roughly the same amount of work for wages, due to the fact that a Schedule C filer can deduct certain business expenses before closing income into a 1040. The normal 1040 filer only has itemized deductions available, and that only if he gives up the standard deduction, which Schedule C filers retain.

It's also specious thinking to state that I do or do not "pay taxes on my gambling winnings." I pay taxes on my NET EARNINGS FROM ALL INCOME-PRODUCING ACTIVITIES. It is true that if I do not file as a professional gambler, I cannot deduct net losses from gambling-related activities. I still can, however, deduct direct gambling losses from gambling winnings. Note that the difference is that should I lose, say, $5,000 gambling in a year, that could be subtracted from my overall taxable income IF I file as a professional gambler; otherwise, not.

THAT is how a reasonable person (as opposed to an internet troll or someone who jumps to conclusions) should interpret it.
AxiomOfChoice
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July 30th, 2014 at 8:05:44 PM permalink
Quote: Eaglesnest

Dear God, people have to learn to read. I specifically referenced WHAT YOU TAKE HOME. I don't like giving the government an interest-free loan, which is what you do when you are withheld monies that you will eventually get back.



At a "real job", if you having more withheld than you owe, you just fill out a W4 and adjust your withholdings. It takes about 2 minutes.
GWAE
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July 30th, 2014 at 8:11:42 PM permalink
Quote: Eaglesnest

Dear God, people have to learn to read. I specifically referenced WHAT YOU TAKE HOME. I don't like giving the government an interest-free loan, which is what you do when you are withheld monies that you will eventually get back. As a self-employed person, I pay every tax my employer would pay except for unemployment insurance, which I couldn't even if I wanted to, and worker's comp, which would be silly anyway. I pay TWICE what a wage earner would pay in SSI.

I did allude to the fact that I probably pay less overall income tax than I would if I was doing roughly the same amount of work for wages, due to the fact that a Schedule C filer can deduct certain business expenses before closing income into a 1040. The normal 1040 filer only has itemized deductions available, and that only if he gives up the standard deduction, which Schedule C filers retain.

It's also specious thinking to state that I do or do not "pay taxes on my gambling winnings." I pay taxes on my NET EARNINGS FROM ALL INCOME-PRODUCING ACTIVITIES. It is true that if I do not file as a professional gambler, I cannot deduct net losses from gambling-related activities. I still can, however, deduct direct gambling losses from gambling winnings. Note that the difference is that should I lose, say, $5,000 gambling in a year, that could be subtracted from my overall taxable income IF I file as a professional gambler; otherwise, not.

THAT is how a reasonable person (as opposed to an internet troll or someone who jumps to conclusions) should interpret it.



I sure hope the mods give a 24 hour member such as yourself a nice 3 day time out. I made a judgment based on what you wrote. If you thought my assumption was wrong it would have been reasonable to act a certain way which would have been the opposite of the way you acted.
Expect the worst and you will never be disappointed. I AM NOT PART OF GWAE RADIO SHOW
Eaglesnest
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July 30th, 2014 at 8:14:32 PM permalink
Quote: GWAE

Lol yes I must be a troll. You know what a troll is right?
If I misunderstood what you meant about taking home less than 75% when employed then I apologize but I stand by what I said. You make reference to not taking home as much when you are working yet you say you paid 28% in taxes as self employed. Something does not add up there.


FWIW, I would never say something on here that I am not willing to say to ones face.



Yes, a troll is someone who deliberately starts arguments on internet discussion boards for no better reason than amusement or self-aggrandizement. It seemed like a logical inference to draw about you, given that you made a highly inflammatory and insulting remark to me, a perfect stranger, based on nothing but utter ignorance. That is indeed the mark of the troll. (As is, by the way, typing "lol"--a stupid expression, given that the user is almost certainly NOT "laughing out loud" and usually, not laughing at all.) Do you conceive on any level that you could have voiced your "misunderstanding" in a less abrasive and confrontational way?

The reason you perceive things "not adding up" is that I pay less in federal income tax but more in SSI, and the latter exceeds the former. I also was making a general statement about the 25% withholding, etc. that a person earning wages could expect to pay--it could obviously be much more. It was by far not my main point, so I don't wish to quibble about the numbers any more. Surely even you understand that there is only a rough correlation between what you take home and your eventual tax liability.

If you would REALLY call someone you had just met and knew NOTHING about a criminal to their face, the question naturally arises--how have you survived this long?
Eaglesnest
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July 30th, 2014 at 8:16:49 PM permalink
Quote: GWAE

I sure hope the mods give a 24 hour member such as yourself a nice 3 day time out. I made a judgment based on what you wrote. If you thought my assumption was wrong it would have been reasonable to act a certain way which would have been the opposite of the way you acted.



As I said, you voiced what you term a "misunderstanding" in a confrontational, inflammatory, and highly insulting way. If you truly don't think an apology is warranted (and not a "hedged" one, either), I'll just have to leave you to simmer in Troll Land.
Eaglesnest
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July 30th, 2014 at 8:20:52 PM permalink
Quote: AxiomOfChoice

At a "real job", if you having more withheld than you owe, you just fill out a W4 and adjust your withholdings. It takes about 2 minutes.



I figured someone would bring that up. That used to be true. Now, employers are REQUIRED to withhold certain amounts. If a person claims substantially more deductions than they are entitled to, that will raise a red flag. If you claim "exempt," that automatically generates an audit of the employer's payroll. If I tried to under-withhold, I would be placing my employer at grave risk, and he would be right to refuse to allow it. The IRS ("helpfully") provides guidelines and tables for what "normal" withholding should be. The oversight is pretty rapid, too, as with large companies, payroll taxes and data are submitted eight times a calendar quarter.

Part of what I object to about the current withholding scheme is that when I work for an employer, I an usually idle 3-4 months of the year. But the withholding tables are structured as if you were earning the same income steadily throughout the year. As a result, I am usually overwithheld.

Part of what has been driving policy changes like this, aside from the sharpened fangs of the IRS in general, is that an employer could collude with employees to underwithhold and collect interest on the unremitted funds, even while intending to pay the same amount of federal tax at year's end.
AxiomOfChoice
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July 30th, 2014 at 8:34:02 PM permalink
I would certainly not suggest under-withholding either, as you could owe penalties if you under-withhold by too much. But if you are over-withholding it's easy to correct with a W4. I've done this.

If you are over-withholding by 25%, that is completely ridiculous. I don't even know how that's possible. It's rare to be off my more than 10%.
beachbumbabs
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July 30th, 2014 at 8:47:58 PM permalink
GWAE, and Eaglesnest,

You're both getting more excited about this conversation than it justifies, which appears to be a simple misunderstanding that got blown out of proportion. Nobody's earned a suspension to this point. GWAE apologized for misunderstanding what you wrote, Eaglesnest; I suggest you accept it, and we move on.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
FleaStiff
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July 31st, 2014 at 12:44:58 AM permalink
Quote: Eaglesnest

Thanks for the advice, but I can't help but wonder why you felt compelled to say something like "what you are looking for is handholding" in the course of offering it. What I was actually looking for was insight from others how have attempted something roughly similar to what I'm trying to do now.

I admit I was overly forceful in my statement but I did so in an attempt to emphasize that if you already have the skills to identify these various paths, the real problem is committing to them. People might be able to tell you "I did 'X' five years ago" in such an such poker room, but games change.

Quote: Eaglesnest

Insofar as VP goes, much of the value these days is in mailers, not in the games themselves. You're right in that it can take some time for those to materialize. Live poker on the Strip (and the Venetian is a good venue) is probably the best option for immediate income. If you find that your opponents know what they're doing, you just switch tables.



If your VP value is in mailers that entitle you to special multiplier points or bonuses of some sort then you must have a stable mailing arrangement (if not a stable living arrangement) to get the mailers, evaluate them and get to your destination. Also mailers to tend to respond to your use of them so they often tend to peter out.

Venetian is in I think most opinions the best venue. Comps, Luxury and above all, [/]Lure. You want the out of town Fish whose mindset is already that he is going to Las Vegas to play with the big boys and happily get skinned by some really sharp players.That's The Venetian. Though you are right. Changing tables may be called for. Do you know how Chinese poker can really favor the lucky? The Venetian will spread Chinese Poker anytime there are sufficient people who want it.

If you really need to its possible to do laundry and live in comp'd room including rooms that are largely if not solely poker comped rooms. Some people have done it and endlessly bored their audiences with descriptions of buses and laundramats and the like.

It is often said that if Dice Influencing existed, those people would be playing not talking or selling seminars. Its the same way with Poker, IF you have the skills, you will be doing Poker rather than trying to get to the morning free Bingo game at the Ellis. So I think you know that poker is more profitable than Video Poker... and the only way to find out for sure is to walk into a poker room and see how you do against the people in Vegas who have been playing poker six days a week for the last five years.

If VP is going to depend upon how many Xs they offer intheir mailer or how many X's you happen to SPIN when you get there, then there is the unknown cost of treking there for the SPIN and deciding to stay or go based on that multiplier spin.

Good luck to you. I hope you keep us informed of your choice making and your actual progress.
DRich
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July 31st, 2014 at 7:42:14 AM permalink
And I am going to repeat. Play the 25 cent 10 coin FPDW at Skyline. It is $14 an hour and should be no problem with an $8k bankroll.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
AxelWolf
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July 31st, 2014 at 7:59:08 AM permalink
Quote: DRich

And I am going to repeat. Play the 25 cent 10 coin FPDW at Skyline. It is $14 an hour and should be no problem with an $8k bankroll.

With no real knowledge I agree this would be an ok idea. However, I don't think this is a great idea. 8K is not enough in my opinion. don't forget he will have bills and other things. Not sure if they still have that promotion. I'm sure once they get to know you some meals will be free. I have never heard of anyone successfully making a living playing full-pay deuces only. I doubt he will last for long on this particular path.

Solo machine AP with a small bankroll, little knowledge and no connections will be rough at best, especially nowadays.

I will add more later. I am curious to see how this entire thing develops here.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
FleaStiff
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July 31st, 2014 at 8:21:14 AM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

With no real knowledge I agree this would be an ok idea. However, I don't think this is a great idea. 8K is not enough in my opinion. don't forget he will have bills and other things.

Yes, but if he hits a Royal Flush in Sequence, he gets five to 25 percent bonus on it. Plus the CWs will bring drinks AND snacks to his machine. And if he hits the poker room as well buy in for 20 gets you 25.00 and flop a full house gets you a dinner.
FleaStiff
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July 31st, 2014 at 8:41:25 AM permalink
Quote: DRich

And I am going to repeat. Play the 25 cent 10 coin FPDW at Skyline. It is $14 an hour and should be no problem with an $8k bankroll.

Now just what does this mean?

FPDW = Full Pay Deuces Wild ... wherein full pay means you've looked at the pay out tables and been favorably impressed.

25 cent 10 coin means $2.50 a pull

$14 an hour ... ???? Huh??? Does this he will win 14.00 an hour? It looks like he is putting in ten dollars a minute into the machine.

''should be no problem with an $8K bankroll" ?????? == You mean he is mathematically likely to hit a Royal with 8k within one year?

"Play with our Party Girls".... alas, it means play at the tables to which the party girls are assigned as dealers.
Wizard
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July 31st, 2014 at 9:50:29 AM permalink
Quote: Eaglesnest

You are obviously a troll.



Personal insult. Three-day suspension.

I'm sure you are going to complain that I didn't ban GWAE for this post. That is a reasonable complaint, but I think that his inference from your remark about not paying taxes was not unreasonable. Even you said later you paid 28% in taxes, so I think you might agree you gave the wrong impression with your initial remark.

I am not trying to chase you out, but rules are rules. No personal insults of other forum members.

Welcome to the forum.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
DRich
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July 31st, 2014 at 9:50:40 AM permalink
Quote: FleaStiff

Now just what does this mean?

FPDW = Full Pay Deuces Wild ... wherein full pay means you've looked at the pay out tables and been favorably impressed.

25 cent 10 coin means $2.50 a pull

$14 an hour ... ???? Huh??? Does this he will win 14.00 an hour? It looks like he is putting in ten dollars a minute into the machine.

''should be no problem with an $8K bankroll" ?????? == You mean he is mathematically likely to hit a Royal with 8k within one year?



Yes, a win of $14 an hour is reasonable playing this game. If he only played 8 hours per day he would be mathematically likely to hit a Royal Flush every week.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
Buzzard
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July 31st, 2014 at 10:38:17 AM permalink
" Yes, a troll is someone who deliberately starts arguments on internet discussion boards for no better reason than amusement or self-aggrandizement."

This is different from the others on the forum who just start an argument for the hell of it. I really don't see the difference.

It's a forum, not a scientific research journal.
Shed not for her the bitter tear Nor give the heart to vain regret Tis but the casket that lies here, The gem that filled it Sparkles yet
AxiomOfChoice
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July 31st, 2014 at 10:51:10 AM permalink
Quote: FleaStiff

$14 an hour ... ???? Huh??? Does this he will win 14.00 an hour? It looks like he is putting in ten dollars a minute into the machine.



4 hands/minute is extremely slow. That is only 240 hands/hr. An experienced player who knows the strategy cold can play 3-4x that (and some people can play much much faster).

At 800 hands/hr (which is what he claimed earlier) that is $2000/hr coin-in. $14/hr would be a 0.7% edge. 100.7%... isn't that what this game returns?

How much do dealers make? I can't believe people want to AP for $14/hr. Get a real job with a higher hourly, save some money, and then AP when you have a bankroll. You can always play some during your off hours if you want to supplement your income.

$8k seems like plenty for this. I don't know much about FPDW (I have never played any deuces wild game) but if a royal cycle is 45,000 hands and the royal comprises 2% of your return, that means that you would lose 1.3% between royals. So a cycle would cost you 1.3% of 45,000 * $2.50 < $1500. He has more than enough to withstand 5 royal cycles. I mean, it's possible that he busts out, but 5 cycles is pretty bad. I calculate it as a 0.67% chance. Certainly possible, and also certainly possible that he busts out after hitting a royal (eg, 3 cycles, royal, 3 more cycles, bust) but I don't know what you expect with $8k. It just isn't very much money.
DRich
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July 31st, 2014 at 10:58:01 AM permalink
Quote: AxiomOfChoice


At 800 hands/hr (which is what he claimed earlier) that is $200/hr coin-in.



That should be $2000/hr coin-in
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
AxiomOfChoice
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July 31st, 2014 at 11:11:06 AM permalink
Quote: DRich

That should be $2000/hr coin-in

Sorry, typo (edited in my original post). I calculated everything else as if it was $2000 (0.7% of 2000 is 14)
FleaStiff
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July 31st, 2014 at 12:14:45 PM permalink
Quote: AxiomOfChoice

It just isn't very much money.

Fourteen dollars an hour? It will keep me happy.

You sure there would be no issue about someone coming around saying I'm hogging the machine or that I wouldn't find someone sitting there saying "my machine, my machine"? All I would need is 8k?
DRich
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July 31st, 2014 at 12:24:01 PM permalink
Quote: FleaStiff

You sure there would be no issue about someone coming around saying I'm hogging the machine or that I wouldn't find someone sitting there saying "my machine, my machine"? All I would need is 8k?



It shouldn't be a problem. The last time I was there they had about ten of those machines.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
AxiomOfChoice
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July 31st, 2014 at 12:32:41 PM permalink
Quote: FleaStiff

Fourteen dollars an hour? It will keep me happy.

You sure there would be no issue about someone coming around saying I'm hogging the machine or that I wouldn't find someone sitting there saying "my machine, my machine"? All I would need is 8k?



My comment was that $8k wasn't very much money.

$14/hour works out to $28k per year. That would really keep you happy?

You could almost certainly make that in any service job that gets somewhat reasonable tips. There are certainly enough of them in Vegas.

I really think that if you are making less than the low-level employees working at the casino, you really should re-consider your career choices. If the person who pays you your jackpot make more than you, maybe you should be paying the jackpots instead of drawing for them.
AxelWolf
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July 31st, 2014 at 12:39:16 PM permalink
Quote: FleaStiff



You sure there would be no issue about someone coming around saying I'm hogging the machine or that I wouldn't find someone sitting there saying "my machine, my machine"?

no they have plenty. At least they did before.

There is nothing wrong with $14 and hr when freedom(possibly fun) comes attached to it. especially during slow times. I just doubt its practical. No tipping no mistakes.

I have never seen or heard of anyone successfully grinding out a wage on .25 or.50 deuces wild with no cash extras. Then again anyone who could do it successfully would probably try to find better things.

I know a few guys who have attempted this, they always give up.

For a while they had a promo, it was worth $25 an hr.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
FleaStiff
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July 31st, 2014 at 2:01:24 PM permalink
Quote: AxiomOfChoice

My comment was that $8k wasn't very much money.

It is to me.

>$14/hour works out to $28k per year. That would really keep you happy?
Sure would

>You could almost certainly make that in any service job that gets somewhat reasonable tips.
>There are certainly enough of them in Vegas.
I'm marooned in Florida's boondocks.
No way to get to Vegas anymore. This is Budweiser, dogs and stray bullets country.
Oppressive heat. Mosquitoes. Humidity.
AxiomOfChoice
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July 31st, 2014 at 2:20:26 PM permalink
Quote: FleaStiff

It is to me.



That isn't really a very useful measure. It is small for a gambling bankroll.

Quote:

I'm marooned in Florida's boondocks.
No way to get to Vegas anymore. This is Budweiser, dogs and stray bullets country.
Oppressive heat. Mosquitoes. Humidity.



Then I guess the FPDW game is out of reach. I hear that there are some good poker games down there though.
AxelWolf
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August 1st, 2014 at 12:46:55 AM permalink
Quote: FleaStiff

It is to me.

>$14/hour works out to $28k per year. That would really keep you happy?
Sure would

>You could almost certainly make that in any service job that gets somewhat reasonable tips.
>There are certainly enough of them in Vegas.
I'm marooned in Florida's boondocks.
No way to get to Vegas anymore. This is Budweiser, dogs and stray bullets country.
Oppressive heat. Mosquitoes. Humidity.

Why are you there? I'm confused, I thought you were a Vegas AP.

Weren't you on the Gold spike Progressive money giveaway?
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
FleaStiff
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August 1st, 2014 at 2:18:39 AM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

Why are you there? I'm confused, Weren't you on the Gold spike Progressive money giveaway?

I don't think so. I just keyed in my math exercises and scored 49 in 120 seconds but some idiot must have set it incorrectly because most of it was "1" plus something? I just crawled out of bed and quieted the cat with either some tuna fish or some shoe polish. Same size and shape containers, you know! I'll slurp my morning coffee and think about this. (Flash!! It seems the cat definitely did get the tuna fish because that "coffee" I just slurped was definitely shoe polish in some earlier life).

Ah, its okay, my head is clearing now. Dang. Hitting that foot rail sure gives me a head ache. Yeah, its Friday... so its going to be a morning choice of:

Drag the garbage out.
Drag myself out to the craps boat.
Drag myself out to the local Seminole casino for some Blackjacks and Flapjacks. (6:5 Five dollar BJ plus flapjacks and syrup).

Nope... not Vegas. Gotta be Florida. Yeah, definitely Florida. Too many mosquitoes for this to be Vegas.
Wait. There is some reason ... oh yeah, I remember now: I can't drive to the craps boat or the casino. The insurance company and I are currently dukeing it out about premiums. I say "Go away, I paid already" They say something 'bout computer say no. Computer say you no pay. So that leaves out Craps Boat as well as Blackjack. Means I am marooned 'cause can't afford no ticket.

So me go now and drag garbage out. What is rule. Always Split Aces and Eights. No.. thats not it. Its always make noise first so gators go elsewhere. Okay.... see y'all later. Gotta sober up before I try to split aces when its a gator.
tringlomane
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August 1st, 2014 at 8:50:33 AM permalink
^^^^
Great post.
AxiomOfChoice
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August 3rd, 2014 at 5:33:12 PM permalink
Back to the comment about bankroll sizes...

I've been writing some code to simulate stuff lately, and I've written something to find the optimal Kelly bet for a bet with an arbitrary discrete probability distribution (this is surprisingly simple; I should have done this long ago).

With a bankroll of $7352.94, the optimal bet for FPDW (100.76%) is $2.50. This implies that $8000 is, indeed, plenty of bankroll.
tringlomane
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August 3rd, 2014 at 5:34:29 PM permalink
Quote: AxiomOfChoice


With a bankroll of $7352.94, the optimal bet for FPDW (100.76%) is $2.50. This implies that $8000 is, indeed, plenty of bankroll.



If you never have to withdraw from it, sure. ;)
AxiomOfChoice
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August 3rd, 2014 at 5:43:06 PM permalink
Quote: tringlomane

If you never have to withdraw from it, sure. ;)



Yes, I am using the term "bankroll" in its traditional sense, that is:

1. Funds set aside for gambling only (living expenses are separate)
2. Non-replaceable -- busting out would be catastrophic.
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