dwheatley
dwheatley
Joined: Nov 16, 2009
  • Threads: 25
  • Posts: 1246
April 5th, 2010 at 11:46:17 AM permalink
Quote: FlatOutWinner

You guys still don't get the point. And I thought you were smart. OK, if I were to make it a 20 day event and I have to win 40% of my daily starting point 16 out of 20 days, which is still 80%.. would that be more reasonable? If you think it is such an advantage to me, than I will give you those odds and see if you can do it.



Risk of Ruin gives 71.4% chance of achieving goal each day, less the house advantage (estimate 70% actual chance of achieving goal).

Binomial Distribution says with a daily success rate of 71.4%, the odds of 16 or more days of success is 28.3%. With a daily success rate of 70%, the odds of 16 or more days of success is 23.75%.

I would gladly offer 10-1 odds that I could do this.
Wisdom is the quality that keeps you out of situations where you would otherwise need it
Mosca
Mosca
Joined: Dec 14, 2009
  • Threads: 178
  • Posts: 3794
April 5th, 2010 at 12:49:13 PM permalink
Quote: Doc

As Carol King sang in Smackwater Jack, "You can't talk to a man, when he don't wanna understand." On the other hand, sometimes there are resources that can help. So, Mosca, what is that web site again? It might be useful in helping me expound my position some day when I don't want to just quote singer/songwriters.



pakin.org.
NO KILL I
Doc
Doc
Joined: Feb 27, 2010
  • Threads: 45
  • Posts: 7012
April 5th, 2010 at 12:53:16 PM permalink
Quote: Mosca

pakin.org.



Thanks!
ZPP
ZPP
Joined: Feb 7, 2010
  • Threads: 2
  • Posts: 31
April 5th, 2010 at 9:00:52 PM permalink
Quote: FlatOutWinner

You guys still don't get the point. And I thought you were smart. OK, if I were to make it a 20 day event and I have to win 40% of my daily starting point 16 out of 20 days, which is still 80%.. would that be more reasonable? If you think it is such an advantage to me, than I will give you those odds and see if you can do it.


Yes, please! I will take your $5000 to my $500 (or higher stakes), you betting that I can't do as you describe with $1000 as the "daily" starting point. I don't live in Vegas so we would need to restart each "day" immediately each time I win $400 or lose $1000, so that this can be done with in a weekend. (If you seriously want to do this, I think we'll have to find an arbitrator, and in turn if we have to pay the arbitrator much I'll want higher stakes, since there are already various fixed costs that eat into my edge. The real concern with actually accepting the bet is that you are a complete stranger on the Internet, not the details of the bet itself.)

Edit: ninja'd by dwheatley

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