MangoJ
MangoJ
Joined: Mar 12, 2011
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April 11th, 2013 at 10:01:43 AM permalink
To beat double zero roulette, you would only need to exclude 2 numbers per spin on a consistent basis. If you can exclude 18 numbers in 10 spins, you are still on the losing side.
MathExtremist
MathExtremist
Joined: Aug 31, 2010
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April 11th, 2013 at 10:11:02 AM permalink
Quote: MangoJ

To beat double zero roulette, you would only need to exclude 2 numbers per spin on a consistent basis. If you can exclude 18 numbers in 10 spins, you are still on the losing side.


I'm not excluding 18 numbers in 10 spins, I'm excluding 19 (half the wheel) for one spin. Betting 19 units, one each on 19 numbers, one of which is guaranteed to hit, gives me a return of +17, more than enough to cover the expected loss for the other 9 normal spins if I bet the same way. *I* can't do this, but if someone else could they'd have the edge.
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice." -- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
MangoJ
MangoJ
Joined: Mar 12, 2011
  • Threads: 10
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April 11th, 2013 at 11:18:17 AM permalink
Quote: MathExtremist

I'm not excluding 18 numbers in 10 spins, I'm excluding 19 (half the wheel) for one spin. Betting 19 units, one each on 19 numbers, one of which is guaranteed to hit, gives me a return of +17, more than enough to cover the expected loss for the other 9 normal spins if I bet the same way. *I* can't do this, but if someone else could they'd have the edge.



Sorry yes, my mistakes. You are perfectly right, you win 17 units on your 10th spin, and lose 9 units on the other spins.

My estimation was somehow naive, that for 10 spins you would effectively bet on 380 numbers, and you would need to make sure only 360 could hit for the 35:1 payoff to be overall zero EV.
Pando
Pando
Joined: Jul 24, 2010
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April 11th, 2013 at 2:06:57 PM permalink
The difficulty is that after deciding where your chips should be placed, there is very limited (a few seconds at most) to get the chips on the table.
The wheel layout is different from the table layout as we all know, and to lay say 19 chips in the time available is near impossible.

I play Rapid Roulette with a real wheel as the bets can be placed by touch screen. It has a racetrack layout available which makes placing bets on adjoining numbers very easy.

However, the casino are aware of the potential of AP, and so they shut the betting long before the ball has started its decay, which is from my understanding, when the AP players need to assess their bets.

There is much more time to place a bet at a conventional table, but not enough time to cover 19 numbers.

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