AverageJOE
AverageJOE
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December 14th, 2012 at 10:11:25 AM permalink
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How can they win or stay ahead with out losing it all when they face the house edge and negative expectation.

I read about does clowns who claim they done a net gain around 15000 Euro during one year of play.
Around 1100 Euro each month ...

Is it all a lie ...

I mean it should not make any difference if you try to win two sessions out of three or apply strict money management with win targets and safety nets from the big hole.

Or is it true that fanatic gamblers who spend hole day and evening searching for opportunity can succeed.
What ever there method might be.

I mean at some time the hose edge should kick in and the random numbers should find a way around any kind of method they use sooner or later ...

Any thoughts !!!
AP - It's not that it can't be done, but rather people don't really have a clue as to the level of fanaticism and outright obsession that it takes to be successful, let alone get to the level where you can take money out of the casinos on a regular basis. Out of 1,000 people that earnestly try, maybe only one will make it.
TIMSPEED
TIMSPEED
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December 14th, 2012 at 10:14:32 AM permalink
On what game...?
I personally make $20 an hour when I play videopoker..but it isn't enough to sustain life for the month (only can do it for 10 hours a month), but I'm "soft" and am only doing it for the "comps" (rooms/food/events/etc)
Gambling calls to me...like this ~> http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4Nap37mNSmQ
AverageJOE
AverageJOE
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December 14th, 2012 at 10:17:15 AM permalink
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I am referring to some roulette system players at other forum boards ...
AP - It's not that it can't be done, but rather people don't really have a clue as to the level of fanaticism and outright obsession that it takes to be successful, let alone get to the level where you can take money out of the casinos on a regular basis. Out of 1,000 people that earnestly try, maybe only one will make it.
TIMSPEED
TIMSPEED
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December 14th, 2012 at 10:18:06 AM permalink
Quote: AverageJOE

I am referring to some roulette system players at other forum boards ...


Whaaaat?! Don't you know..Roulette is a game you can ALWAYS win at...sometimes. ;)
Gambling calls to me...like this ~> http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4Nap37mNSmQ
FleaStiff
FleaStiff
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December 14th, 2012 at 10:19:26 AM permalink
Quote: AverageJOE


I read about does clowns who claim they done a net gain around 15000 Euro during one year of play !!!



Send me one hundred dollars and I'll send you a pamphlet that explains How I Did 15,000 Euros during last year's gambling.
Send me two hundred dollars and I'll send you a pamphlet that explains How I Did 30,000 Euros during last year's gambling.
The house edge is in my favor. Any fool who is stupid enough to send me a check will probably be stupid enough to let it clear the bank.
AverageJOE
AverageJOE
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December 14th, 2012 at 10:21:48 AM permalink
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Well i think it is bull ...


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AP - It's not that it can't be done, but rather people don't really have a clue as to the level of fanaticism and outright obsession that it takes to be successful, let alone get to the level where you can take money out of the casinos on a regular basis. Out of 1,000 people that earnestly try, maybe only one will make it.
dwheatley
dwheatley
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December 14th, 2012 at 10:23:24 AM permalink
It's very possible these people exist, because there are enough people using systems that some people have to get lucky. With enough observations from a probability distribution, you will find some large outliers: in this case, people who (almost) consistently win. The ones who do really well start to believe they have a winning system, then try and sell it. That's the real +EV game.

The problem is, a) they can't continue to be lucky indefinitely, and b) using their system yourself guarantees nothing. Their system isn't worth your time or money.
Wisdom is the quality that keeps you out of situations where you would otherwise need it
AverageJOE
AverageJOE
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December 14th, 2012 at 10:27:44 AM permalink
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If i get your drift right i could put does clown in the same category as lucky lier ...
I mean nothing is due to happen and sooner or later it does happen, but stay lucky for a year sounds allot ...
AP - It's not that it can't be done, but rather people don't really have a clue as to the level of fanaticism and outright obsession that it takes to be successful, let alone get to the level where you can take money out of the casinos on a regular basis. Out of 1,000 people that earnestly try, maybe only one will make it.
Canyonero
Canyonero
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December 14th, 2012 at 11:24:18 AM permalink
I did a quick Martingale simulation:

100 "clowns" playing 100 spins a day over one year. $10 initial bet, $100k initial total funds, $100k table limit.

Here are the results:

84 of them went broke before the end of the year

16 survived, winning an average of $140k

This makes 16 clowns to truthfully go online and tell people how they got rich "beating" roulette - but you will never hear from the 84...
AverageJOE
AverageJOE
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December 14th, 2012 at 12:51:06 PM permalink
Nice way to put some light on the subject ...
AP - It's not that it can't be done, but rather people don't really have a clue as to the level of fanaticism and outright obsession that it takes to be successful, let alone get to the level where you can take money out of the casinos on a regular basis. Out of 1,000 people that earnestly try, maybe only one will make it.
MangoJ
MangoJ
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December 14th, 2012 at 2:17:48 PM permalink
Quote: dwheatley

The ones who do really well start to believe they have a winning system, then try and sell it. That's the real +EV game.


You don't need to place bets to sell winning systems :)
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