The Romney bounce

Now 4 days out from the debate, it appears, Mr Romney has indeed received a significant bounce from the debate. I wonder if it is due more to his strong performance or the President's lack-luster performance, or maybe a combination of the two? (more thoughts on this in a moment)

The general daily tracking polls, now have the race in the about even to Romney ahead by 2 range. Real Clear Politics still has the President ahead by 1.4, which is an average of a number of polls, but because that is a consensus of a number of polls, I think it may include a couple that are at least part, pre-debate, meaning their numbers may be lagging behind. I personally don't put a lot of stock in the national polls, because as you know, we do not elect a president by national polls. Much earlier this year, I had thought there was a strong possibility that President Obama could lose the the popular vote, but still win the presidency, because he was running ahead in several key swing states. It would just mean that Romney had huge margins in deep republican places like the south and middle of the country, while the President had smaller margins in MORE places. I still thing this result of Romney winning popular vote and the President winning the electoral collage a reasonable possibility.

Th real good news for Mr Romney is that his numbers are up in the real key swing states of Ohio and Virginia. Real clear Politics has moved Ohio out of the 'lean Obama' column and back to toss-up. Hard to imagine how an 8-10 point Obama lead in Ohio just a week ago evaporated because of the debate results. Normally a debate bounce, much like a convention bounce is only a couple points. Be interesting to see if such a bounce hold for long. One interesting thing about this race that the polls now say is just about even is that the money lines still strongly favor Obama. They have dropped from where Obama was a 75-80% favorite, to where he is now 67-70% favorite. If this is really an even race, getting 2-1 or better on a candidate is a very strong opportunity. This fact alone leads me to believe that it is not REALLY an even race. :)

My own thoughts are that this bounce has more to do with the President's poor performance than Mr Romney's strong performance. I am not taking anything away from Mr Romney. He did well, although some of the things that he said, have been independently fact-checked to be wrong. A couple statement that he made, his campaign even immediately came out and said were incorrect. lol
Of course that type of thing gets much less coverage. He did what he needed to do during the debate and I give him credit. But, because I personally, feel this bounce may be more a result of president Obama's performance, I would think that if the President has a stronger performance in the second debate, this bounce will probably all but evaporate. And the bar is pretty low, because of his past performance. He doesn't have to win big. Just has to do better. The town-hall format seems to favor the President more, so we shall see.

In the end, I don't think this first debate result, nor bounce will matter. I believe the president will win re-election in a very divided electorate, simply because the Electoral map favors him for this cycle. As bad as the economy is, a couple of the key swing states, like Ohio, has economy is a little better than average. If nothing else, the first debate results made things more interesting though. What was starting to look like a big Obama sweep, with coattails that could not only deliver the senate, but possible the house has now changed. The senate still looks a strong possibility, but the house going democratic is back down to very long odds. That is good for the repubs and those folks from either side that believe no party should control both chambers and the presidency.

Polls don't matter. Obama wins- no question.

The people that carry the water are outnumbered by the people that drink the water.

Why did people feel that Obama was even qualified to become president the first time around?

Right now, my predictions are coming true. The debate did have an enormous impact because of numerous zingers from Romney. Several knockout blows were dealt. At this point, we are looking at Romney winning with a mandate.

Quote of the Day related to this:

"In this age of YouTube and Facething and the Twitter, is it possible to 'win' a presidential debate and then turn around and lose the same debate once the stupid stuff you said is replayed and replayed on-demand. It's all about Big Bird now. And poor Jim Lehrer, he winced. Maybe that's why Jim was so off his game. Mittens ran over him from the get-go with that threat to defund him and pluck Big Bird. Will the Internet and the news media turn Mitten's win into a loss?" - Reporter Rex Wockner, writing on his personal blog.

Quote: Keyser

At this point, we are looking at Romney winning with a mandate.

I hope you are correct. But I'd LOVE to bet that you are wrong. Got any money to risk?

It's easier to bet on intrade.

Quote: kewlj

The town-hall format seems to favor the President more, so we shall see.
.

Yes, Obama seems to fare better when he accepts
questions and talks off the cuff, without a teleprompter.
Thats why he's had so many press conferences
in the last 3 1/2 years, he loves the one-on-one format.
He obviously relishes the chance to explain in detail
his policies and demonstrate his encyclopedic knowledge
of everything going on in his WH.

Romney, on the other hand is lost with his prompter. He
sputters and stammers without it, and avoids speaking
one on one whenever possible. The next debate will be
a slam dunk for Obama, I bet he can hardly wait.

Snicker..

Quote: Keyser

At this point, we are looking at Romney winning with a mandate.

Quote: SOOPOO

I hope you are correct. But I'd LOVE to bet that you are wrong. Got any money to risk?

Quote: Keyser

It's easier to bet on intrade.

But they don't seem to be setting their line based on "looking at Romney winning with a mandate." I suspect that is why SOOPOO would prefer a wager against you.

Quote: Doc

I suspect that is why SOOPOO would prefer a wager against you.

They did a poll 2 weeks ago and 74% of doctors are
anti Obamacare. Why Soopoo keeps wanting to bet
on Obama is a mystery. If he wins, he'll be going back
to what he was earning 15 years ago.

SOOPOO does not think his bet will alter history. He does think he likes to WIN !

Considering how seldom his offers are taken, he may have a future as a lines-maker in Vegas !

His wager, if there is one, will not affect the election. Assuming SOOPOO is anti-Obamacare and that an Obama re-election would hurt SOOPOO financially, there is still no reason for him not to wager on Obama if he feels he is likely to win that wager. If the professional oddsmakers are setting lines based on an expectation that Obama will win, and if a member here thinks that Romney will win with a mandate, it seems reasonable to seek a wager opposing that member, particularly if that member's expectation for a Romney mandate means he would give SOOPOO favorable odds on a straight win/lose wager.

Edit: by "win/lose wager" I meant who would win or lose the election and not whether they got a "mandate" or not.

Ha ha Doc beat you to it " His wager, if there is one, will not affect the election."

Quote: Doc

His wager, if there is one, will not affect the election. Assuming SOOPOO is anti-Obamacare and that an Obama re-election would hurt SOOPOO financially, there is still no reason for him not to wager on Obama if he feels he is likely to win that wager. If the professional oddsmakers are setting lines based on an expectation that Obama will win, and if a member here thinks that Romney will win with a mandate, it seems reasonable to seek a wager opposing that member, particularly if that member's expectation for a Romney mandate means he would give SOOPOO favorable odds on a straight win/lose wager.

Edit: by "win/lose wager" I meant who would win or lose the election and not whether they got a "mandate" or not.

It's like hating the New York Giants, but still betting them to cover the spread.

Uh oh.

Remember in Aug the two Colo professors who did
the electoral college predictions, and have been right
on every presidential election since 1980? They did
the same study again and found Obama losing by
an even bigger margin. They had even more data to
use this time, & say Romney will win most of the
battleground states. They must not have seen Obama
in the debate.. He'll lose them all.

http://www.colorado.edu/news/releases/2012/10/04/updated-election-forecasting-model-still-points-romney-win-university

Very interesting! Their research shows Romney winning very close to the margin that I've predicted as well, except they're saying that he'll win by and even larger margin!

Its going to be all about turnout and it is hard to bet against the Dems and their Union helpers. Here is PA, the localsheetmetal workers get Election Day off as a paid holiday, yet are expected to work driving people from the city to the polls.

Quote: Boz

expected to work driving people from the city to the polls.

I've never understood that phenomenon. In any kind of densely populated area, precincts are only about 1 square mile in size at most. That really requires volunteer drivers??

I have been a paid volunteer driver in the past, but sometimes the citizen has to be physically reminded to vote !

Quote: buzzpaff

... sometimes the citizen has to be physically reminded to vote !

Can't you just vote for him? Seems simpler -- after all, you don't need to prove who you really are anyway.

Hey, I have enough to do voting foe citizens in the grave yard !

It's been a few days since the debate. Let's have a look at the increase in Governor Romney's chances of reaching 270 electoral votes:

Probability of Reaching 270
Democrats 96%
Republicans 3%
Neither (Tie) < 1%

Hey!! That's like triple what they were before the debate!! At this pace, he'll be leading by January.

I bought my Romney InTrade position at $2.11/Share pre-debate, it is now at 3.44/Share.

I sold 60% of the position and am basically free rolling on the remaining 40%.

Still doesn't look like Romney is close to winning according to those stats, but that is the InTrade measurement of the debate bounce.

Romney 49% to Obama 45%! -Pew

Romney has drawn even with Obama in the presidential race among registered voters (46% to 46%) after trailing by nine points (42% to 51%) in September. Among likely voters, Romney holds a slight 49% to 45% edge over Obama. He trailed by eight points among likely voters last month.

The latest national survey by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, conducted Oct. 4-7 among 1,511 adults, including 1,201 registered voters (1,112 likely voters), finds that 67% of Romney’s backers support him strongly, up from 56% last month. For the first time in the campaign, Romney draws as much strong support as does Obama.


In the presidential horserace, Romney has made sizable gains over the past month among women voters, white non-Hispanics and those younger than 50. Currently, women are evenly divided (47% Obama, 47% Romney). Last month, Obama led Romney by 18 points (56% to 38%) among women likely voters. -Pew Research Center is the source. http://www.people-press.org/2012/10/08/romneys-strong-debate-performance-erases-obamas-lead/

Quote: Keyser

Romney 49% to Obama 45%! -Pew

Romney has drawn even with Obama in the presidential race among registered voters (46% to 46%) after trailing by nine points (42% to 51%) in September. Among likely voters, Romney holds a slight 49% to 45% edge over Obama. He trailed by eight points among likely voters last month.

The latest national survey by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, conducted Oct. 4-7 among 1,511 adults, including 1,201 registered voters (1,112 likely voters), finds that 67% of Romney’s backers support him strongly, up from 56% last month. For the first time in the campaign, Romney draws as much strong support as does Obama.


In the presidential horserace, Romney has made sizable gains over the past month among women voters, white non-Hispanics and those younger than 50. Currently, women are evenly divided (47% Obama, 47% Romney). Last month, Obama led Romney by 18 points (56% to 38%) among women likely voters. -Pew Research Center is the source. http://www.people-press.org/2012/10/08/romneys-strong-debate-performance-erases-obamas-lead/

Yes, but all that's done is bring him to TIED in CO, OH, VA, and FL. He needs to SWEEP those states to win the presidency...

I believe the polls already, or soon will, show him ahead in all of those states. Right now I fully expect him to win Wisconsin as well.

Quote: Keyser

I believe the polls already, or soon will, show him ahead in all of those states. Right now I fully expect him to win Wisconsin as well.

No, they don't. And, no, he won't win WI. I think you're forgetting to factor in the effect of decay as this data point ages.

Florida: Romney vs. Obama

Rasmussen Reports

Romney 49, Obama 47

Romney +2



Florida: Romney vs. Obama

WeAskAmerica

Romney 49, Obama 46

Romney +3



Virginia: Romney vs. Obama

Rasmussen Reports

Obama 48, Romney 49

Romney +1



Virginia: Romney vs. Obama

WeAskAmerica

Obama 45, Romney 48

Romney +3



Ohio: Romney vs. Obama

Rasmussen Reports

Obama 50, Romney 49

Obama +1



Ohio: Romney vs. Obama

WeAskAmerica

Obama 46, Romney 47

Romney +1



Colorado: Romney vs. Obama

McLaughlin/ACU (R)

Obama 46, Romney 50

Romney +

Quote: Keyser

Romney 49% to Obama 45%! -Pew

But how about the Planned Parenthood/Public Broadcasting/MSNBC
poll taken of its employees, that shows Obama leading 85% to
Romney's 15%? This is the poll being used by Intrade to keep
Obama in a good lead, and to stop Chris Matthews from throwing
himself off the roof of 30 Rock.

In 2008, President Barack Obama won the independent vote over John McCain by a margin of eight points, 52-44. This morning, a new Battleground Poll has Mitt Romney massacring Obama among indies by a whopping 16 points, 51-35.

I don't think the Romney supporters should start
celebrating just yet !

I think there is still plenty of time for Obama to
build back up a significant lead and win in November.

I just saw a very well-done Obama TV ad that
featured the debate, contrasting Romney's
statement that he is not in favor of a 5 trillion
dollar tax cut, followed immediately by a TV
reporter talking about an independent think
tank on Taxes stating that the Romney tax
cut will be 4.8 trillion over 10 years.

This is exactly the response that Obama
should have had that night.

Despite the 10 year time frame, the ad was
VERY effective in my opinon.

It closes by saying something like "If we
can't trust Romney here (in the debate),
how can we trust him here (showing the
oval office).

I simply don't see how Obama can compete against Romney in the debates and pull out a win. Romney is quite bit more intelligent and experienced.

The Battleground Poll also shows a 13 point enthusiasm gap in Romney's favor. Only 73% of Obama's supporters are "extremely likely" to vote, compared to 86% of Romney's supporters. These numbers will likely drop further as Obama attempts to explain away his inexperience and failed policies.

Looking back, I think most people would tell you that even Sara Palin would have been a better choice for president than Obama.

-Keyser

Quote: Keyser

Florida: Romney vs. Obama

Rasmussen Reports

Romney 49, Obama 47

Romney +2



Florida: Romney vs. Obama

WeAskAmerica

Romney 49, Obama 46

Romney +3



Virginia: Romney vs. Obama

Rasmussen Reports

Obama 48, Romney 49

Romney +1



Virginia: Romney vs. Obama

WeAskAmerica

Obama 45, Romney 48

Romney +3



Ohio: Romney vs. Obama

Rasmussen Reports

Obama 50, Romney 49

Obama +1



Ohio: Romney vs. Obama

WeAskAmerica

Obama 46, Romney 47

Romney +1



Colorado: Romney vs. Obama

McLaughlin/ACU (R)

Obama 46, Romney 50

Romney +

Nice cherry picking. I read all published polls. You should try that sometime.

Quote: JohnnyQ

I just saw a very well-done Obama TV ad that
featured the debate, contrasting Romney's
statement that he is not in favor of a 5 trillion
dollar tax cut, followed immediately by a TV
reporter talking about an independent think
tank on Taxes stating that the Romney tax
cut will be 4.8 trillion over 10 years.

I think there's a serious lack of trust with Independent voters at this time. When you keep hearing one thing, for example:
1. A "video" caused the recent unrest in the Middle East
2. It's "Recovery Summer"
3. "Mitt Romney killed my wife..."
etc.

But you're feeling another, after a while, you just stop believing what they're selling. All of this demonization of Romney is the worst sort of politics imaginable. Here's a successful guy who raised a good family and built a good business- and all of the negative ads to the contrary were wiped away if you watched the first debate. You often hear how "debates don't matter"- well- that's poppycock. Any people that were truly independent couldn't help but be swayed after that debate- maybe they'll wait for confirmation on the next two- so it's up to Romney to close the deal.

Here's some basic observations:
1. I live in an extremely liberal city- very few Obama stickers right now. In 2008, every other car had one!
2. Almost all who voted for McCain will vote for Romney. But a good percentage who voted for Obama will vote for Romney this time. I know a lot of people who are making the switch.
3. The turnout that Obama had in 2008 will NOT occur in 2012

It'll be interesting!

Quote: TheBigPaybak

1. I live in an extremely liberal city- very few Obama stickers right now. !

I read last week that the lack of Obama yard
signs this year is stark. There were banners
and signs everywhere in 2008 and now you
don't see them anywhere. Do they think the
election is a slam dunk, is that the reason, or
do they just not care this time.

Quote: EvenBob

I read last week that the lack of Obama yard
signs this year is stark. There were banners
and signs everywhere in 2008 and now you
don't see them anywhere. Do they think the
election is a slam dunk, is that the reason, or
do they just not care this time.

Did they only mention Obama lawn signs? Most of the literature on the subject is about how twitter and facebook are destroying the phenomenon of lawn signs in general (and, to a lesser extent, doorknocking) by driving peer-to-peer campaigning online.

I believe it.

What I find interesting are the intrade lines. Intrade is often ripe with inefficiencies, however, the number of Europeans that are betting there based on the liberal media reports is clearly skewing the line. I wonder how many of them are truly aware of the strong media bias towards the left.

-Keyser

Thoughts on polls:

It is hard for me to put any credibility in ANY single poll. This Pew poll released today is an interesting example. Shows Romney with a 4 point lead nationally, 49% to 45%, and the female vote split evenly. Obama previously had an 18 point lead among women. Now Ari Fleischer was on Anderson Cooper tonight. Last week Mr Fleischer was leading the complaint charge against polls that showed Obama with a big lead, claiming these polls to be very skewed. When asked about this Pew Poll today, to his credit, Mr Fleischer said the poll was severely skewed in favor of Mr Romney. Turns out Pew polled 5% more republicans than democrats. Mr Fleischer went on to say as much as he would like those numbers to be accurate, they are just not credible. Again, I don't see eye to eye with much that Mr Fleischer has to say, but I give him credit for being objective in this case. This is the exact reason, I put no credence in any single poll. I prefer to look at Real clear politics that uses an average of many polls.

Now speaking of polls. Gallup tracking released 2 different general election daily tracking polls today. Their poll released in the morning showed Obama 47%, Romney 47%. Their second daily tracking poll released later in the day showed Obama 50%, Romney 45%. No explanation as to why they released 2 polls the same day, nor why there was such a discrepancy. This whole poll business is very strange.

Quote: Keyser

I think most people would tell you that even Sara Palin would have been a better choice for president than Obama.

If we needed a good laugh or scary moments, sure.

Quote: Keyser

I believe it.

What I find interesting are the intrade lines. Intrade is often ripe with inefficiencies, however, the number of Europeans that are betting there based on the liberal media reports
r

Just read the comments on the Intrade page. They're
80% Libs, with sarcastic and wise ass observations
and name calling. Double digit IQ's rule there.

Quote: kewlj

Now speaking of polls. Gallup tracking released 2 different general election daily tracking polls today. Their poll released in the morning showed Obama 47%, Romney 47%. Their second daily tracking poll released later in the day showed Obama 50%, Romney 45%. No explanation as to why they released 2 polls the same day, nor why there was such a discrepancy. This whole poll business is very strange.

Mark Blumenthal's description of the two Gallup polls:
In showing Obama and Romney tied in its initial Monday morning release, Gallup broke from its typical practice of reporting presidential vote preference on a seven-day rolling average and instead compared vote preference on two sets of three-day averages. Looking at the results from interviews conducted Oct. 1 to 3 (just before the debate) and the results from interviews conducted Oct. 4 to 6 (just after), Gallup found the race had narrowed from a five-point Obama lead to dead even.

Obama will win in November. Bet accordingly, or set your dice.

Quote: kewlj

Thoughts on polls:

Now speaking of polls. Gallup tracking released 2 different general election daily tracking polls today. Their poll released in the morning showed Obama 47%, Romney 47%. Their second daily tracking poll released later in the day showed Obama 50%, Romney 45%. No explanation as to why they released 2 polls the same day, nor why there was such a discrepancy. This whole poll business is very strange.

I saw Gallup today, something said the like to release 7-day polls. Smoothes out the noise, but takes longer to get a result. What with the debate moving polls, Gallup may have wanted to show the direction of what is happening. Not sure, but a guess. Rasmussen, their biggest competitor, uses 3 day averages.

I don't know what to think on some of this. What with even the lamestreams piling on I wonder if they are trying to deal Romney a double-duke and turn after the next debate? But it is so many places that is not likely. Time will tell, but no matter what Romney put himself in a great postion. I have been saying he is running a rope-a-dope and keeping it close, waiting to finish strong. Look at the GOP Primary--Mitt knew that the only time it matters to be in first is when the checkered flag comes out. Hopefully his lead sticks to election day.

Quote: TheBigPaybak

It'll be interesting!

Well I agree with that much !